Statistics

[Ian 1,129]

I was looking at the BBC match report earlier and was surprised at just how much better Watford were than us statistically tonight.

Were we just fortunate, or is statistical analysis in football generally not that useful?

 

Edited January 22, 2022 by Ian

[duke63 541]

There is only one statistic that really matters in football matches - goals scored needs to exceed goal conceded.

[Newtopia 517]

1 minute ago, Ian said:

I was looking at the BBC match report earlier and was surprised at just how much better Watford were than us statistically tonight.

Were we just fortunate, or is statistical analysis in football generally not that useful?

 

It was a great result, but Watford did dominate big phases of the game.

[Mengo 820]

5 minutes ago, Ian said:

I was looking at the BBC match report earlier and was surprised at just how much better Watford were than us statistically tonight.

Were we just fortunate, or is statistical analysis in football generally not that useful?

 

Sometimes when you look at these. You think is that the game I've just been watching. Computers see the world differently. 

I would say Kenny had a 90% pass rate though🙃😂

I love the underdog. Get in there0-3

 

Edited January 22, 2022 by Mengo

[Nexus_Canary 1,016]

Not a lot in the XG and the possession is a far cry from Farke ball.
Stats suggest we were clinical and our defense was tight compared to Watford who were wasteful and leaky.

If i had not of watched the game i would have assumed that we had allowed them possession, pressed them within our half and allowed the to ferry the ball around midfield without creating a lot then hit them on the counter.
Also suggests that Gunn. Hanley & Gibbo had a good day at the races.

 

 

But yeh... goals are the only stat that count 😄

[Crafty Canary 495]

11 points from 11 games now under the Smith/Shakespeare regime.

 

[Mr.Carrow 376]

I think I've got it. We literally did to Watford exactly what they did to us the last ten times we've played them. Love it.

[Jimmy Raggatip 59]

Game state helps a lot

 

 

[CirclePoint 200]

1 hour ago, Newtopia said:

It was a great result, but Watford did dominate big phases of the game.

True. But I feel we defended well and absorbed the pressure. Watford never really got off a solid shot.

[Rock The Boat 1,322]

1 hour ago, Nexus_Canary said:

Not a lot in the XG and the possession is a far cry from Farke ball.
Stats suggest we were clinical and our defense was tight compared to Watford who were wasteful and leaky.

If i had not of watched the game i would have assumed that we had allowed them possession, pressed them within our half and allowed the to ferry the ball around midfield without creating a lot then hit them on the counter.
Also suggests that Gunn. Hanley & Gibbo had a good day at the races.

 

 

But yeh... goals are the only stat that count 😄

In Smith's post-match interview, he said precisely that. We let them have the ball at the back and then pressed them in the right way.

[Petriix 2,834]

I think the stats are a reasonably fair reflection of the game. Watford dominated possession but we ultimately had a similar number of chances. We scored 3 goals from just 2 shots on target whereas Watford didn't really test Gunn aside from hitting the bar and being offside.

The telling difference is in the fouls column, and it probably should have been higher but for some lenient refereeing. The red card prevented any chance of a comeback. 

[Nexus_Canary 1,016]

7 hours ago, Rock The Boat said:

In Smith's post-match interview, he said precisely that. We let them have the ball at the back and then pressed them in the right way.

Ah so my 25+ years of football manager has left its mark then 😄 

[rock bus 850]

8 hours ago, CirclePoint said:

True. But I feel we defended well and absorbed the pressure. Watford never really got off a solid shot.

To be fair they did have a goal disallowed (but was way offside), hit the cross bar and had at least 2 other good strikes that went inches over.

but who cares my stat is we scored 3goals and them 0!!

[Mason 47 1,371]

I've mused on some general comments and tweets I've read over the last couple game; still not good enough, better teams would beat us, got dominated for large parts of the game etc.

I think in a way we as a fanbase aRE slightly skewed because, in the championship, we usually look the better side for the vast majority of most matches. In the prem, I think everyone in the top 4-5 experiences that and everyone below is patchy and attritional; the difference is making the most of your time on top and reducing the damage when you aren't.

In other words, **** the rest of them. USA, USA

[Greavsy 2,412]

12 minutes ago, Nexus_Canary said:

Ah so my 25+ years of football manager has left its mark then 😄 

More an ar5e shaped dent in the sofa, I'd imagine? 

[Boris 56]

We start solid but after Lungi subbed they control the game.Colossal result but to be fair I never see we to have all key decisions and moments to be on our way...

2 shots 3 goals say much and on other day some joke reffere or var easy can disallowed our 2 goals.

We will be almost fully fit squad in 2 weeks time ,confidence is back who is must for team like Norwich so we  rest 5 6 days have fa cup and must win Palace !

Sergent and Idah re born !

Pukki look tired ,rest will recharge him...

Finally some luck with us on right moments!

Rupp,Normann and Billy back +confident team and fans make us competitive who is really all that we ask from our club!

[nutty nigel 7,506]

Norwich gave us a lesson....

 

[Capt. Pants 4,194]

The Watford version of a happy clapper will be saying they were so unlucky, dominated that match, had key players missing and Ranieri needs more time.

The reality is Ranieri is already treading water and looks well and truly out of his depth. 

Hopefully they give him more time.

The only stat that matters is the scoreboard and points total.

[Monty13 2,229]

Our game plan surrendered them possession but realistically while they had more shots they rarely threatened. Can only think of one save Gunn really had to make, all the other “on target” shots were simple catching practice from memory.

[unique 434]

An important win and hopefully more to build on, however, in all honesty, the way we managed the game when we went three up, and had a man advantage, was nothing short of woeful. 

Our ability to retain possession of the football is at its worst for many a year.

The only ‘killer’ ball that was played last night was Rashica’s for the second goal. The two passes that stand out were McLean’s c*ap pass to Pukki (who fortunately made something out of nothing), and Placheta’s c*ap pass to Idah, when City were well placed to score a fourth.

We now move on to the next ‘must win ‘ game against Palace. Firstly to keep some sort of momentum going, and secondly, because the following two games will inevitably end in tears.

The stock of Rupp and Norman rises ever higher as their return to the squad gets ever nearer, and hopefully the confidence gleaned from two consecutive wins will garner us three points from the next nine. The games against Man City and Liverpool couldn’t be more untimely.

[Nexus_Canary 1,016]

1 hour ago, Greavsy said:

More an ar5e shaped dent in the sofa, I'd imagine? 

LOL, nah many a gaming chair 🙂

Edited January 22, 2022 by Nexus_Canary

[Robert N. LiM 4,218]

9 hours ago, Rock The Boat said:

In Smith's post-match interview, he said precisely that. We let them have the ball at the back and then pressed them in the right way.

Exactly. At this end of the PL the points are won in both boxes and, while I miss Farkeball, Dean Smith's more pragmatic approach is the right one for us at this moment.

1 hour ago, Boris said:

Finally some luck with us on right moments!

Indeed. I think all the decisions were just about right, but it's not hard to imagine both Sargent goals being ruled out, and Lees-Melou being sent off rather than Dennis. We're certainly due a bit of luck, though and, for the record, I don't feel remotely sorry for Watford. They've been bullying us for years: great to see us give some back.

 

28 minutes ago, unique said:

 the way we managed the game when we went three up, and had a man advantage, was nothing short of woeful. 

This is true, too. Good to see Smith acknowledged that. The players looked shattered, and mistakes do creep in when you're tired. The break has come at a good time for us.

 

29 minutes ago, unique said:

The games against Man City and Liverpool couldn’t be more untimely

Not sure I agree with this. We've got to play them some time. Hopefully the returning players will get some minutes in those games and we can "go again" in the more winnable games after that.

[Jim Smith 2,314]

11 hours ago, Ian said:

I was looking at the BBC match report earlier and was surprised at just how much better Watford were than us statistically tonight.

Were we just fortunate, or is statistical analysis in football generally not that useful?

 

I think we were a bit fortunate. I don’t actually think we played particularly well but we defended well and were clinical which has so often not been the case at this level. Everything went our way but you still have to take advantage. 

[Jim Smith 2,314]

34 minutes ago, unique said:

An important win and hopefully more to build on, however, in all honesty, the way we managed the game when we went three up, and had a man advantage, was nothing short of woeful. 

Our ability to retain possession of the football is at its worst for many a year.

The only ‘killer’ ball that was played last night was Rashica’s for the second goal. The two passes that stand out were McLean’s c*ap pass to Pukki (who fortunately made something out of nothing), and Placheta’s c*ap pass to Idah, when City were well placed to score a fourth.

We now move on to the next ‘must win ‘ game against Palace. Firstly to keep some sort of momentum going, and secondly, because the following two games will inevitably end in tears.

The stock of Rupp and Norman rises ever higher as their return to the squad gets ever nearer, and hopefully the confidence gleaned from two consecutive wins will garner us three points from the next nine. The games against Man City and Liverpool couldn’t be more untimely.

Win against Palace though and we go into those City and Liverpool games in “anything is very much a bonus” mode and hopefully playing with confidence. 

[CirclePoint 200]

4 hours ago, rock bus said:

To be fair they did have a goal disallowed (but was way offside), hit the cross bar and had at least 2 other good strikes that went inches over.

but who cares my stat is we scored 3goals and them 0!!

I hear ya. I tend to lean more towards shot on target and did the defense allow anything to threaten the keeper. Krul had a few soft shots to stop, otherwise everything else was just air.

[Thirsty Lizard 3,154]

27 minutes ago, CirclePoint said:

I hear ya. I tend to lean more towards shot on target and did the defense allow anything to threaten the keeper. Krul had a few soft shots to stop, otherwise everything else was just air.

Gunn!!

[CirclePoint 200]

2 hours ago, Thirsty Lizard said:

Gunn!!

👍

[Hank shoots Skyler 2,094]

2 hours ago, Jim Smith said:

I think we were a bit fortunate. I don’t actually think we played particularly well but we defended well and were clinical which has so often not been the case at this level. Everything went our way but you still have to take advantage. 

Have to agree. A rare game where we got the rub of the green in every key moment.

We’ve certainly played a lot better a lost this season, and 2 years ago. Oddly the Spurs game could’ve been a similar result if we took our chances like we did last night and didn’t get unfortunate with a worldie and a lucky ricochet. Arguably we played better at Spurs than we did last night - certainly in terms of keeping the ball. 

Nice to be on the receiving end of that kind of ‘luck’ rather than being the team with the hard luck story coming away with 0 points. Makes a change.

 

[vos 155]

12 hours ago, Jim Smith said:

I think we were a bit fortunate. I don’t actually think we played particularly well but we defended well and were clinical which has so often not been the case at this level. Everything went our way but you still have to take advantage. 

Without any knowledge of the stats I did say on another thread that overall Watford were the better of two very poor teams. For a change we got the breaks  but after the first 20 mins there was no cohesion and we never achieved any sort of grip on the game. Our passing in general was poor and Pukki/Idah never rec'd any decent service. It's a long haul ahead.

[Ken Hairy 3,756]

0-3 is the only important stat 👍