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So is Putin going to invade Ukraine anytime soon or..?

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13 hours ago, Indy said:

That’s the point I was making, not saying the US want to start the war but certainly doing nothing to stop it, much more by Biden comments actually pushing Putin to do it! It’s noticeable that those at most risk are trying to calm the waters. Sensible outcome needed.

Sorry if I misinterpreted you Indy as to defense companies (they may benefit eventually but not by design) but I also think the US and Europe are indeed trying to stop a war - the US in a particular by releasing a lot of intelligence data (so as not to leave the ambiguity that allowed Putin to creep into the Crimea). In short the are calling out as in a child's game - 'We Can See You'. Don't shoot the messenger.... 

The march to war is Putin's and Putin's alone at present. He's got himself in a bind and needs a way out saving face. However its not obvious what Kyiv could agree too whilst being threatened and bullied. Minsk needs some trust on both sides which Putin by his previous actions elsewhere has destroyed.

 

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42 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

Sorry if I misinterpreted you Indy as to defense companies (they may benefit eventually but not by design) but I also think the US and Europe are indeed trying to stop a war - the US in a particular by releasing a lot of intelligence data (so as not to leave the ambiguity that allowed Putin to creep into the Crimea). In short the are calling out as in a child's game - 'We Can See You'. Don't shoot the messenger.... 

The march to war is Putin's and Putin's alone at present. He's got himself in a bind and needs a way out saving face. However its not obvious what Kyiv could agree too whilst being threatened and bullied. Minsk needs some trust on both sides which Putin by his previous actions elsewhere has destroyed.

 

Trouble is YF, Crimea has been held by the Russians since 1917, they have history there back to the 18th century and the population is made up of Russian and Ukrainian, add to that it’s been the home for the Russian souther fleet since 1917 they’re not going to want to give that up to NATO! It’s like Cuba for the Americans, remember they tried to invade and force a coo themselves back back in 1961!
If you like it’s like us with Gibraltar! It’s a British territory yet I’ve ver there a few times and it’s inhabitants are mainly Spanish! 
Like I’ve said above France & Germany have far too much to lose and are doing their utmost to defuse the situation the Americans are poking the bully and Boris is using it to get the best for his personal situation! IMO.

 

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6 minutes ago, Indy said:


Like I’ve said above France & Germany have far too much to lose and are doing their utmost to defuse the situation the Americans are poking the bully and Boris is using it to get the best for his personal situation! IMO.

 

I'm afraid Macrons efforts will fall on stoney ground. This is only going one way, what a mess!

"Vladimir Putin will convene an extraordinary meeting of the Russian Security Council on Monday, his spokesman has said.

"This will be a big Security Council. There will be a speech by the head of state as well as other speeches," Mr Peskov said.

The security council acts as a platform for determining and coordinating national security policy.

It is composed of Russia′s leading state officials and heads of defence and security agencies and chaired by the nation's president.'

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17 minutes ago, Van wink said:

I'm afraid Macrons efforts will fall on stoney ground. This is only going one way, what a mess!

"Vladimir Putin will convene an extraordinary meeting of the Russian Security Council on Monday, his spokesman has said.

"This will be a big Security Council. There will be a speech by the head of state as well as other speeches," Mr Peskov said.

The security council acts as a platform for determining and coordinating national security policy.

It is composed of Russia′s leading state officials and heads of defence and security agencies and chaired by the nation's president.'

Indeed! But my thoughts are that we need Russia they need the Europeans and it’s up to the EU to sort it out. Too many close ties now in businesses, fuel production and agriculture that this stand off will come to a peaceful conclusion but then again!

 It’s not just Russia who play foul, remember the Weapons Of Mass Destruction used to launch a full on war with Iraq! I don’t trust Putin, I certainly never trust any US government and Boris is the most untrustworthy prime minister we’ve ever had! What a mess!

Edited by Indy
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50 minutes ago, Van wink said:

I'm afraid Macrons efforts will fall on stoney ground. This is only going one way, what a mess!

"Vladimir Putin will convene an extraordinary meeting of the Russian Security Council on Monday, his spokesman has said.

"This will be a big Security Council. There will be a speech by the head of state as well as other speeches," Mr Peskov said.

The security council acts as a platform for determining and coordinating national security policy.

It is composed of Russia′s leading state officials and heads of defence and security agencies and chaired by the nation's president.'

I think VW this and the reports this morning of the Russian pushback this morning against further top level diplomacy actually means the die is already cast and wheels turning to a Russian plan/timescales. Putin would otherwise have to delay if he was in direct talks with Biden etc. It will kick off visibly within 48 hours.

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I still do not believe war will happen. And if it does, it will be a Civil War. I do not believe NATO troops will take part but merely watch and give any assistance short of fighting to the Ukraine Army.

Lets face it, Russia will control the skies. And I doubt if they would observe any no fly zone. Otherwise they can send tactical missiles.

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1 hour ago, keelansgrandad said:

I still do not believe war will happen. And if it does, it will be a Civil War. I do not believe NATO troops will take part but merely watch and give any assistance short of fighting to the Ukraine Army.

Lets face it, Russia will control the skies. And I doubt if they would observe any no fly zone. Otherwise they can send tactical missiles.

I have to disagree regarding a war, Putin is playing with Macron and will invade with ease. It will however I agree result in a protracted civil war with resistance sponsored and funded by the West, a **** show.

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Its not like he has invaded already. All his military is still in Russia. And the joke that was the Trump inspired pull out from Afghanistan has shown the West is incapable. Why does he need to risk economic sanctions when his economy is poor and has interest rates of 7.5%?

He doesn't give a monkeys about his military, they are a means to an end for his oligarchy.

He can destabilse, stir up hatred in Donetsk and Luhansk and let them get on with it as the impotent West cries foul.

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2 hours ago, keelansgrandad said:

Its not like he has invaded already. All his military is still in Russia. And the joke that was the Trump inspired pull out from Afghanistan has shown the West is incapable. Why does he need to risk economic sanctions when his economy is poor and has interest rates of 7.5%?

He doesn't give a monkeys about his military, they are a means to an end for his oligarchy.

He can destabilse, stir up hatred in Donetsk and Luhansk and let them get on with it as the impotent West cries foul.

Biden already ordered sanctions now that Putin has officially recognised the breakaway territories.

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Putin will get away with it. It will all eventually go quiet and as long as the gas keeps flowing nobody in Europe  will do fcuk all. Lots of big talk but business as usual and don't frighten the horses.

Edited by ricardo
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12 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Putin will get away with it. It will all eventually go quiet and as long as the gas keeps flowing nobody in Europe  will do fcuk all. Lots of big talk but business as usual and don't frighten the horses.

Yep, and he knows that only too well.

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3 minutes ago, Van wink said:

Yep, and he knows that only too well.

He'll get really scared when we a ban a few ballet companies from touring.

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Daft thing is, we have people attached to our island talking about independence from the rest of the UK, and they all have devolved Councils of Government.

Whereas Putin ramps up Nationalism, the UK Parliament does the reverse with Scotland. 

And I would wager the majority of English would vote for Scottish independence.

Crazy old world.

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Not surprising, but I see Farage has gone full Lord Haw-Hawski mode.

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2 hours ago, Herman said:

Not surprising, but I see Farage has gone full Lord Haw-Hawski mode.

I think the phrase is useful idiots as far as Putin is concerned. Farage and his Foxy ilk.

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Anybody who saw Putin's 'meeting' last night with his 'yes' men should be very worried.

He was in all ways simply an absolute dictator following his whims. No effective counter arguments or criticisms allowed. Very North Korean.

Add to that his explicit delusions as to Russia's (or the USSRs) past, threats to recreate such again coupled with lies and disinformation to demonize opponents (genicide) - Ukraine is just a made up country (history suggests otherwise but as with all such areas there has been a lot of pushing around well before the Soviet Union). It is a similar playbook 'history' that a certain German used to annex the Sudetenland and we all know how that ended up.

We really need to ask ourselves now how Putin will be stopped, who (more rational) could take over. I fear we have to confront Putin now the sooner the better.

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11 hours ago, ricardo said:

Putin will get away with it. It will all eventually go quiet and as long as the gas keeps flowing nobody in Europe  will do fcuk all. Lots of big talk but business as usual and don't frighten the horses.

100%  they've already ruled out banning Russia from the SWIFT banking system which is essentially the biggest stick the west has. The sanctions will be minor and he will find ways around them. He has his dirty oligarch money everywhere, not least fully behind the most corrupt Conservative government in living memory. It's actually all quite sad.

Edited by Worthy Nigelton
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11 hours ago, ricardo said:

Putin will get away with it. It will all eventually go quiet and as long as the gas keeps flowing nobody in Europe  will do fcuk all. Lots of big talk but business as usual and don't frighten the horses.

Exactly as I said, the two south eastern states with large pro Russian population and direct links to the Russian border along with Crimea, we need the Russians gas and oil prices are too high as it is, to cut off their supply would cripple energy prices! They have the EU by the gonads! 
It’ll end up like the old GDR and West Germany, a border which keep Putin happy that he controls the Crimea and protects his pro Russian population, there will be a long winded year of sanctions ending with some form of agreement not to invade the rest of Ukraine!

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12 minutes ago, Wings of a Sparrow said:

I'm curious what our 'barrage of sanctions' will actually consist of, and whether Russia will actually give a f**k.

*I know the answer to the second one.

No tennis with the PM.

No karaoke with Coffey.

Removal of parking priviledges outside their London homes.

No more seats in the Lords.

Edited by A Load of Squit
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21 hours ago, Van wink said:

I have to disagree regarding a war, Putin is playing with Macron and will invade with ease. It will however I agree result in a protracted civil war with resistance sponsored and funded by the West, a **** show.

How on earth can you describe this as a potential  "civil war"? Ukraine is a sovereign state recognised by the UN and Russia would be an invading foreign power. Any Ukrainian resistance would be resistance against a foreign occupying power, not a civil war against fellow Ukrainians.

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Anyone who witnessed the spectacle of Putin lecturing to his subordinates last night cannot fail to see a man out to recreate the glorious former USSR. Apparently he believes all the states who were previously under Soviet rule are not real countries and should return to control from the Kremlin. This dangerously warped world view means that any resistance will be seen as confirmation that they are NATO puppets and therefore in its own defence, Russia has every right to unleash pre-emptive strikes against them. If the West fails to stop him in Ukraine then the Baltic states will be next and IMO having suffered so badly under that rule they won't go quietly. We are then off down the rabbit hole, back to the Iron Curtain and back to the joys of  Mutually Assured Destruction.

 

Edited by ricardo
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Strange how this page went to from debate about how Russia was not going in to a post about Farange at the time Russia have exactly gone in. Be interesting to see how Russia will want to carve up Ukraine.

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You don't mass 200,000 soldiers on the borders of another country unless you plan to invade. The only real question is where will he stop. 
 
He'll take the parts of Donetsk and Luhansk already controlled by his puppets. Then probably those whole regions in the name of 'peace keeping'. Then...who knows? His speech made it sound like he didn't even view Ukraine as a country. Maybe he'll then back off like he did after Crimea...and then come back for the rest of Ukraine in a few years time. He'll play the long game if needed.
 
Maybe he'll take all the regions with a high % of Russian speakers (map attached). 'We are liberating our Russian speaking brothers and sisters from their oppressors." Right out of Hitler's playbook.
1280px-Ukraine_census_2001_Russian_svg.thumb.png.c0f12e4e1e21dbe1c7130a955a72307e.png
OTBC
Edited by Disco Dales Jockstrap
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Tough sanctions coming in. Johnson has banned vodka from any of his parties. 

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This isn't going to end with just Ukraine. Sadly a few years to come where the Soviet Union will be rebuilt and it's back to the bad old days. 

And there's fcuk all anyone can do about it as nobody outside of Russia will want to fight.

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Just now, Herman said:

Tough sanctions coming in. Johnson has banned vodka from any of his parties. 

But Vodka will be ok at work meetings

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4 hours ago, Worthy Nigelton said:

100%  they've already ruled out banning Russia from the SWIFT banking system which is essentially the biggest stick the west has. The sanctions will be minor and he will find ways around them. He has his dirty oligarch money everywhere, not least fully behind the most corrupt Conservative government in living memory. It's actually all quite sad.

Banning Russia from swift would do more harm than good, than would shut down the gas supplies if they cant receive payment... They would then create their own banking system to rival swift, Iran and other countries affected by sanctions would just use that, their trade with China/India and the rest of Asia would be via Swift. 

Edited by Baracouda

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49 minutes ago, Capt. Pants said:

This isn't going to end with just Ukraine. Sadly a few years to come where the Soviet Union will be rebuilt and it's back to the bad old days. 

And there's fcuk all anyone can do about it as nobody outside of Russia will want to fight.

Nato, has put itself in a difficult position. If they fail to defend Ukraine then the rest of Eastern Europe will start to wonder what are the paper guarantees America has given them. Taiwan, Japan and South Korea will also start to wonder.

 

Eisenhower was right, and the warnings of his grand-daughter were ignored.

https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-1997-jul-07-me-10464-story.html

Why have so many knowledgeable and responsible authorities, in addition to the letter’s signatories, raised powerful objections to NATO expansion? Diplomat-historian George F. Kennan perhaps said it most clearly when he wrote earlier this year in a newspaper commentary: “Expanding NATO would be the most fateful error of American policy in the post cold-war era. Such a decision may be expected . . . to impel Russian foreign policy in directions decidedly not to our liking.”

 

 

Edited by Baracouda

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