So is Putin going to invade Ukraine anytime soon or..?

[Yellow Fever 3,747]

1 minute ago, ricardo said:

Zaghari-Radcliffe has had her passport returned. Probably a signal that the Iranians are unnerved by Russia's latest move. Although UK also to release the 400 million we had frozen.

I guess that will also help defrost Iranian oil & gas.

[sonyc 5,492]

1 hour ago, PurpleCanary said:

Sonyc, very glad you have continued to post. This is certainly a bigger subject than can be dealt with in a short post, but there does seem to be a similarity between the 1930s and now.

One should not over simplify  by way of 'decadism' but roughly the 1920s and spilling over into the early '30s (what one writer called 'the long party') was a happy time after the horrors of world war one, until the later '30s, with the rise of fascism, the emerging truth about the Soviet Union* and the Spanish Civil War all acted as a very cold shower of reality. The supposed new world order of 'never again' peace was shown to be a sham.

And it is rather the same now. Of course one can indulge in whataboutery and point to any number of examples of long and bloody wars or semi-wars outside Europe (the Israel-Palestine semi-war has been going on for 72 years now) so why is the west so surprised and so worked up about just one more lethal conflict? How come western lives are more important than those in Yemen or Myanmar? 

They are not, but this is Europe, and Europe was supposed to have really learned from world war one and world war two that such a thing could never happen a third time, and especially to a democracy, and especially a war that threatens the whole continent, and even possibly beyond.

*You seem to have plenty of reading on your plate but the best book I have read not just on Stalinism and how the dream of the Soviet Union got destroyed  but on the  broader question of ends versus means is Koestler's novel Darkness at Noon, in which the author does what GB Shaw used to do and gives the devil quite as good an argument as that of the angels.

It is said that after reading it some westerners who had left the Communist party because of the Ribbentrop-Molotov Pact actually rejoined, so  persuasive was the case for Stalinism.

Thank you Purple. I've been very conflicted actually about posting. Firstly, I've realised I'm not an expert in much at all and cannot really debate in many subjects to the level of other posters. I know a little about lots of things because I tend to become fascinated by a subject and go 'all in' and once I feel I've exhausted that, I find another. It has been something that has served me okay in terms of the natural world - birds, clouds, trees, astronomy and so on etc etc as I have a bit of knowledge. Same with literature,  music...

Secondly, I tend to reserve judgement on tons of things and therefore I'm more a neutral observer as such. It is then difficult to hold up in any argument!

Thirdly, I read and get an intuition - a feeling sense in any writing. That's the best way of describing it. I am far less able to explain things in a logical way. I arrive at most of my sense on the world through such a feeling sense.

All these things make me a poor poster on subjects like the war in Ukraine, Covid, American politics etc. I tend to read and post up links - those I think are interesting takes on a subject...things I feel make a powerful statement for me but for which I could never express as well. My meaning often arrives for me in writing.

I used to think I was the only one but there are others too. What place is there here for discussion about books and their meanings? And their relevance for today? Posts ARE getting longer but maybe such a forum is better with shorter, more 'pithy' posts? The acronym TLDR applies doesn't it 🙂

Yet, I do have an emotional response to this current government and its supporters. Same with Brexit. I have never understood why as a country we have wanted to isolate ourselves at this time in history. It's a form of going backwards. It's not progressive. This government has sold out our country. It's the worst act in my lifetime. And unforgivable. Any comment by me has not been influential. What do you do? Just keep moaning? I'm as guilty as many.

Folk seem not to want to change their minds. This superb article by Keys below articulates well where we have headed. It's a comparatively old (2018) article. It covers some of the points you've made - historical references and relevance for today.

https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/brexit-tory-labour-policy-hitler-appeasement-terrifying-parallels-a8553686.html

Changing one's mind on something is such a good thing. For me anyway. It's a sign of strength not weakness. Yet, this forum doesn't appear (on the whole) to be one for conjecture on the meaning of things (where people exchange views that each finds interesting) but more one for stating your views stridently and often trying to argue down others, or being insulting. Often, it descends at that point. I'm someone who likes to mend bridges. I like harmony. Idealism, I've found here, also gets laughed down or taken down with a one liner!

I suppose the one thing one can post in a positive sense are articles and leave it there for folk to take or leave it. Or for  humourous things, or music, or posts on nature.

I still love this forum though (as usual I'm full of contradictions) because of the power of arguments  I read regularly. Many are proper journalists! Some, very good ones too. But I'm a little ashamed to say I struggle to hold a candle to them.

Thank you so much for your book recommendation. Another to look for on eBay! Perhaps, a thread could be started for books (there was one on literature once) that people like and why they are recommending. 

I reckon this is long now (I type on my phone so never know). Apologies!

Edited March 15, 2022 by sonyc

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

2 hours ago, Yellow Fever said:

I guess that will also help defrost Iranian oil & gas.

Our wonderful partners and our relationship goes back for centuries and its the world leading arrangement.

Or just politics.

[Foxy2600 297]

2 hours ago, Yellow Fever said:

I guess that will also help defrost Iranian oil & gas.

Doubt it, Iran Foreign Minister flew to Moscow this morning to talk Nuclear Deal with Lavrov….

[Herman 9,715]

3 hours ago, ricardo said:

Zaghari-Radcliffe has had her passport returned. Probably a signal that the Iranians are unnerved by Russia's latest move. Although UK also to release the 400 million we had frozen.

Very good news. She gets home. Debt is paid. Relations with Iran hopefully defrost a bit. Win win win. 

[Yellow Fever 3,747]

1 hour ago, Foxy2600 said:

Doubt it, Iran Foreign Minister flew to Moscow this morning to talk Nuclear Deal with Lavrov….

It all a game of chess. Russia wants to be able to trade with Iran despite its own sanctions and see's the 'Iran nuclear' deal as bit of a potential loophole.

However sorting out the £400M and Nazanin (plus others) can only help improve relationships.

[sonyc 5,492]

https://www.mirror.co.uk/tv/tv-news/breaking-ukraine-enter-eurovision-performance-

12 points from everyone I predict🙂

And if Russia is in it..."nil points"

No longer the isolated and disgraced UK occupying the bottom three places perhaps 

[Herman 9,715]

I wonder, if she does get released, Johnson will dare do a John Terry?

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

1 hour ago, Herman said:

I wonder, if she does get released, Johnson will dare do a John Terry?

What become an even bigger cnut than he already is?

[Daz Sparks 1,150]

20 minutes ago, keelansgrandad said:

What become an even bigger cnut than he already is?

Hard to believe that is actually possible. I guess we should still be prepared somehow though...

[KernowCanary 214]

Sorry for sounding stupid, but just what do they achieve by shelling innocent people’s homes and livelihoods?. A bar in Kharkiv has been shelled to a point it’s unidentifiable and people were living in the flats above it. There was a lit up sign in there saying “You’ll Never Drink Alone” and Google Street view still at the moment allows you to walk inside of it.

Really want to even more do my own fundraiser for Ukraine.

[kirku 1,332]

10 hours ago, KernowCanary said:

Sorry for sounding stupid, but just what do they achieve by shelling innocent people’s homes and livelihoods?. A bar in Kharkiv has been shelled to a point it’s unidentifiable and people were living in the flats above it. There was a lit up sign in there saying “You’ll Never Drink Alone” and Google Street view still at the moment allows you to walk inside of it.

Really want to even more do my own fundraiser for Ukraine.

In short, they're trying to terrify the local population into submission because they can't currently achieve a military victory (in terms of full occupation of major cities).

These are the same tactics they used in Chechnya and Syria - with the key difference that neither of those wars involved an opposing military of any significant strength and without the intelligence and logistic support (at least widespread) of first rate powers

[1902 1,167]

At this point it's not even about victory, it's about forcing Zeklensky into a slightly faster agreement on slightly better terms for Russia by increasing civilian casualties and damaging cities.

I don't believe the Russian military honestly feels it can take Kiyv or even Kharkiv for that matter. It's really just about keeping the pressure on for the negotiations.

Which if you are an immoral, cynical negotiator like Lavrov or Putin, is exactly the correct thing to do.

Edited March 16, 2022 by 1902

[kirku 1,332]

17 minutes ago, 1902 said:

At this point it's not even about victory, it's about forcing Zeklensky into a slightly faster agreement on slightly better terms for Russia by increasing civilian casualties and damaging cities.

I don't believe the Russian military honestly feels it can take Kiyv or even Kharkiv for that matter. It's really just about keeping the pressure on for the negotiations.

Which if you are an immoral, cynical negotiator like Lavrov or Putin, is exactly the correct thing to do.

The Russian military thought they could take Kyiv (and Ukraine) within days. I wouldn't be surprised if they still believe they can take the cities.

From a purely military standpoint, it's an utterly humiliating failure.

Edit: I've just read that a 4th Russian Major General has been KIA and Putin has fired a further 8.

Edited March 16, 2022 by kirku

[1902 1,167]

32 minutes ago, kirku said:

The Russian military thought they could take Kyiv (and Ukraine) within days. I wouldn't be surprised if they still believe they can take the cities.

From a purely military standpoint, it's an utterly humiliating failure.

Edit: I've just read that a 4th Russian Major General has been KIA and Putin has fired a further 8.

Yeah fair enough but let me phrase that in a different way.

The Russian military doesn't believe it can take these cities at a cost in manpower and hardware terms that is acceptable for the objectives they want to achieve.

They also don't believe that they can hold them, whereas at the start of this invasion they didn't expect to encounter serious resistance.

Now I could be wrong about this, but Russia is staring down the barrel of an economic crisis, a difficult occupation, a demographic catastrophe and the distinct possibility that its military hardware is seriously overmatched by the equipment being provided by the West. 

It is also losing control of the narrative at home and risks being unable to resupply and support it's other strategic allies such as Assad as it runs low on money, equipment and experienced troops. Abroad, it can't deter countries like Sweden and Finland from doing as they wish, as its military looks weak even if it takes them soon.

Therefore it's best strategy is to up the humanitarian cost to try to force Zelensky into a decision moderately favourable to Russia whilst they still can.

 

[Yellow Fever 3,747]

58 minutes ago, 1902 said:

At this point it's not even about victory, it's about forcing Zeklensky into a slightly faster agreement on slightly better terms for Russia by increasing civilian casualties and damaging cities.

I don't believe the Russian military honestly feels it can take Kiyv or even Kharkiv for that matter. It's really just about keeping the pressure on for the negotiations.

Which if you are an immoral, cynical negotiator like Lavrov or Putin, is exactly the correct thing to do.

 

43 minutes ago, kirku said:

The Russian military thought they could take Kyiv (and Ukraine) within days. I wouldn't be surprised if they still believe they can take the cities.

From a purely military standpoint, it's an utterly humiliating failure.

Edit: I've just read that a 4th Russian Major General has been KIA and Putin has fired a further 8.

The problem for Putin's regime is now whatever happens the Russian troops will eventually return home (in victory, stalemate or defeat) with their stories and the truth will out. Putin's lies and misinformation about the war will be laid bare plus the true human costs. The only way Putin can survive that fallout is if he has something to show for it. That's why I fear he has nothing to loose by escalating.

Edited March 16, 2022 by Yellow Fever

[Indy 3,283]

14 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

 

The problem for Putin's regime is now whatever happens the Russian troops will eventually return home (in victory, stalemate or defeat) with their stories and the truth will out. Putin's lies and misinformation about the war will be laid bare plus the true human costs. The only way Putin can survive that fallout is if he has something to show for it. That's why I fear he has nothing to loose by escalating.

YF as I’ve been saying since the start, there needs to be an out, Zelensky needs to minimise damage both physically and casualties, Putin will survive for a time but not as long as some think, he’s had to narrow his sabre rattling as it’s in Russia which he knows can turn on him, it’s started.

Putin to escalate needs his people behind him and I think we’re starting to see chinks in that! 
The days of controlling the narrative from the regime’s point of view has gone as too much outside influence and media web still used even with restrictions. Hope for a quick resolution to this and peace for Ukraine.

[1902 1,167]

45 minutes ago, Indy said:

YF as I’ve been saying since the start, there needs to be an out, Zelensky needs to minimise damage both physically and casualties, Putin will survive for a time but not as long as some think, he’s had to narrow his sabre rattling as it’s in Russia which he knows can turn on him, it’s started.

Putin to escalate needs his people behind him and I think we’re starting to see chinks in that! 
The days of controlling the narrative from the regime’s point of view has gone as too much outside influence and media web still used even with restrictions. Hope for a quick resolution to this and peace for Ukraine.

"It's all the west's fault" will be the refrain, and it may well work.

[nevermind, neoliberalism has had it 159]

On 12/03/2022 at 12:28, 1902 said:

Ohh look, it's whatabouttery raising it's ugly head. I have never argued that Iraq was justifiable (I was also 11, so "sanctioning my head" on that account may have been a tad harsh)

"Lose bn. to gain Ukraine's wealth" is rather a contradiction in terms. It also makes no sense at all as we would all make more money if we just ignored this conflict and kept burning cheap Russian gas.

The US protected **** collaborators who killed Poles because they held information about USSR in the 1950s, we get it, that was horrendous.

Stalin liquidated Poland's intelligentsia, civil service and army and buried them in mass graves.

Not much the super powers did during that time was all that great, but shockingly your criticism seems to only extend to one of those two powers? Why would that be I wonder?

Ohh I don't fancy a war, someone did though, he sits in the Kremlin right now. 

In reality you wouldn't tolerated a woman like Sophie Scholz, she didn't fetishize authoritarianism and wasn't ideologically blinded to the world. If she had been born in East Germany and had have opposed the Stasi instead of the Gestapo, you would have called her a NATO stooge.

I have nothing more to say to you, reply if you like, but I can't be bothered any further. I know your ilk.

My family comes from Saxony, but I do not expect you to know where that is. Sadly I am not into dualism like you, a Russophobic  fool, live with it

.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FbbMt4awp6A

 

[nevermind, neoliberalism has had it 159]

On 12/03/2022 at 11:43, horsefly said:

Can you tell me where in the Ukraine ordinary citizens are welcoming Russian troops as liberators from a Naz*i dictatorship? The "vast majority of Ukrainians" are clearly and unambiguously resisting the Russian forces despite the disparities in firepower. It's called voting with your feet.

It is obvious that nobody speaks for the 'vast majority', but there are other voices and media outlets who are not guided or affected by sensationalizing mass propaganda. This is just one.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FbbMt4awp6A

[Herman 9,715]

Why are some still sticking up for Putin. Your enemy's enemy doesn't work in this case?! 

[kirku 1,332]

4 hours ago, 1902 said:

Yeah fair enough but let me phrase that in a different way.

The Russian military doesn't believe it can take these cities at a cost in manpower and hardware terms that is acceptable for the objectives they want to achieve.

They also don't believe that they can hold them, whereas at the start of this invasion they didn't expect to encounter serious resistance.

Now I could be wrong about this, but Russia is staring down the barrel of an economic crisis, a difficult occupation, a demographic catastrophe and the distinct possibility that its military hardware is seriously overmatched by the equipment being provided by the West. 

It is also losing control of the narrative at home and risks being unable to resupply and support it's other strategic allies such as Assad as it runs low on money, equipment and experienced troops. Abroad, it can't deter countries like Sweden and Finland from doing as they wish, as its military looks weak even if it takes them soon.

Therefore it's best strategy is to up the humanitarian cost to try to force Zelensky into a decision moderately favourable to Russia whilst they still can.

 

Agree with much of this.

Re:objective, I'm not sure they even know what they are at this point. If what we're currently seeing is their attempt at mass civilian casualties, it's bad, really bad, but still some way off what would be required.

Domestically, all I've seen is a strengthening of their awful Z campaign and a hardening of "this is all the West's fault".

Escalate to de-escalate is Putin all over, so let's see how this pans out. Very mixed messages coming out of Russia today, contrasting what his negotiators have said versus what Putin himself is rambling on about:

"The Russian people will always be able to distinguish true patriots from traitors and simply spit them out.... I am convinced that such a natural and necessary self-purification of society will only strengthen our country."

[Indy 3,283]

1 hour ago, Herman said:

Why are some still sticking up for Putin. Your enemy's enemy doesn't work in this case?! 

Be careful not to put people sticking up for normal Russians who are as brave if they stand up to Putin with Putin. I know the majority of my Russian contacts through work are devastated by all this! No way anyone should stick up for Putin, but we should work with Russians who want change too!

[Herman 9,715]

Agree Indy. I have no problem with the Russian people this is all on Putin and his cronies and enablers. 

[Yellow Fever 3,747]

1 hour ago, kirku said:

Agree with much of this.

Re:objective, I'm not sure they even know what they are at this point. If what we're currently seeing is their attempt at mass civilian casualties, it's bad, really bad, but still some way off what would be required.

Domestically, all I've seen is a strengthening of their awful Z campaign and a hardening of "this is all the West's fault".

Escalate to de-escalate is Putin all over, so let's see how this pans out. Very mixed messages coming out of Russia today, contrasting what his negotiators have said versus what Putin himself is rambling on about:

"The Russian people will always be able to distinguish true patriots from traitors and simply spit them out.... I am convinced that such a natural and necessary self-purification of society will only strengthen our country."

Just saw the Mariupol Theatre report.

Quite clearly Putin and his organized crime mafia syndicate that have hijacked Russia are trying to establish 'facts on the ground'. There will be nothing left for the Ukrainians to come back too. 

What we need to explain to his supporters and especially the generals is it's either Putin's face or their necks.

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

39 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

Just saw the Mariupol Theatre report.

Quite clearly Putin and his organized crime mafia syndicate that have hijacked Russia are trying to establish 'facts on the ground'. There will be nothing left for the Ukrainians to come back too. 

What we need to explain to his supporters and especially the generals is it's either Putin's face or their necks.

He is going to hit easy targets just so the pictures go back to Russia saying there were WMD in those buildings. Nobody is going to send pictures of burnt out Russian Tanks.

[Herman 9,715]

24 minutes ago, keelansgrandad said:

He is going to hit easy targets just so the pictures go back to Russia saying there were WMD in those buildings. Nobody is going to send pictures of burnt out Russian Tanks.

Just as you posted the Russians started blaming the Azov brigade for it. A false flag op.😐

[Tetteys Jig 830]

8 hours ago, kirku said:

Agree with much of this.

Re:objective, I'm not sure they even know what they are at this point. If what we're currently seeing is their attempt at mass civilian casualties, it's bad, really bad, but still some way off what would be required.

Domestically, all I've seen is a strengthening of their awful Z campaign and a hardening of "this is all the West's fault".

Escalate to de-escalate is Putin all over, so let's see how this pans out. Very mixed messages coming out of Russia today, contrasting what his negotiators have said versus what Putin himself is rambling on about:

"The Russian people will always be able to distinguish true patriots from traitors and simply spit them out.... I am convinced that such a natural and necessary self-purification of society will only strengthen our country."

Sounds pretty Hitlery from Vlad there

[horsefly 4,287]

16 hours ago, nevermind, neoliberalism has had it said:

It is obvious that nobody speaks for the 'vast majority', but there are other voices and media outlets who are not guided or affected by sensationalizing mass propaganda. This is just one.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FbbMt4awp6A

The vast majority are voting with their feet. Either by becoming refugees or by resisting the Russian forces. How else would you explain the failure of Russia's "superior" forces to achieved the "expected" 2-3 day victory?

[kirku 1,332]

Pravda published this about Poland, yesterday I believe: