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So is Putin going to invade Ukraine anytime soon or..?

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11 minutes ago, keelansgrandad said:

Seeing how right wing you are, wouldn't you call your leaning toward Russia as treason? The new Lord Haw Haw?

Again I think we need to refer to Putin Russians, not Russia, I know of lots of my contacts and business we’ve worked including Lukoil absolutely horrified at this invasion! They try to be as vocal as they can but have to be careful for now.

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34 minutes ago, Indy said:

Again I think we need to refer to Putin Russians, not Russia, I know of lots of my contacts and business we’ve worked including Lukoil absolutely horrified at this invasion! They try to be as vocal as they can but have to be careful for now.

I was really referring to him (Hardnut) aligning with Russia just to be opposite to us. He either is more concerned with being contra or has no compassion.

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40 minutes ago, keelansgrandad said:

I was really referring to him (Hardnut) aligning with Russia just to be opposite to us. He either is more concerned with being contra or has no compassion.

The video he shared was also incredibly pointless.

"We've found foreign weapons" is hardly groundbreaking news, given all the public statements of military aid being provided to Ukraine.

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1 hour ago, kirku said:

The video he shared was also incredibly pointless.

"We've found foreign weapons" is hardly groundbreaking news, given all the public statements of military aid being provided to Ukraine.

That was my reaction too when I watched the video !  Also the Donbas Peoples' Popular Front sounds a bit Monty Python TBH.

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Russia to focus war on eastern Ukraine - Russian army chief

The chief of the Russian army says Russia will now focus its main war effort on the "complete liberation" of the eastern Ukrainian Donbas region.

The defence ministry said Russia had been considering two options for its "special military operation" - one covering the whole of Ukraine and one focusing on the Donbas.

The comments - carried by Russian state news agencies - hinted at a possible downgrading of Russia's war aims. Russian forces have met strong resistance in the north of Ukraine and around Kyiv.

Sergey Rudskoy, head of the main operational department of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, said 93% of Luhansk oblast and 54% of Donetsk oblast was under Russian control.

Russia had destroyed the vast majority of Ukraine's air force and navy, and this marked the successful end of the first phase of the conflict, he added.

However, the defence ministry did not rule out storming Ukrainian cities that had been blockaded and said Russia would react immediately to any move to close airspace over Ukraine - something President Zelensky has repeatedly urged.

The ministry also said Russia would continue its invasion until targets set by Putin had been achieved, Ria news agency reported, without specifying what the targets were.

 

From the BBC - I think that's called polishing a  t u r d  but it at least shows some movement in the Russian position about more limited aims. It still won't fly though.

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2 hours ago, Yellow Fever said:

Russia to focus war on eastern Ukraine - Russian army chief

The chief of the Russian army says Russia will now focus its main war effort on the "complete liberation" of the eastern Ukrainian Donbas region.

The defence ministry said Russia had been considering two options for its "special military operation" - one covering the whole of Ukraine and one focusing on the Donbas.

The comments - carried by Russian state news agencies - hinted at a possible downgrading of Russia's war aims. Russian forces have met strong resistance in the north of Ukraine and around Kyiv.

Sergey Rudskoy, head of the main operational department of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, said 93% of Luhansk oblast and 54% of Donetsk oblast was under Russian control.

Russia had destroyed the vast majority of Ukraine's air force and navy, and this marked the successful end of the first phase of the conflict, he added.

However, the defence ministry did not rule out storming Ukrainian cities that had been blockaded and said Russia would react immediately to any move to close airspace over Ukraine - something President Zelensky has repeatedly urged.

The ministry also said Russia would continue its invasion until targets set by Putin had been achieved, Ria news agency reported, without specifying what the targets were.

 

From the BBC - I think that's called polishing a  t u r d  but it at least shows some movement in the Russian position about more limited aims. It still won't fly though.

Russians are running over their own commanders too. Unsure whether he's dead or very maimed but as with your post highlighting the narrative change, the signs are not positive for Russia but a bit better for an end to this war.

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1 minute ago, Herman said:

Russians are running over their own commanders too. Unsure whether he's dead or very maimed but as with your post highlighting the narrative change, the signs are not positive for Russia but a bit better for an end to this war.

Indeed, I know I’m like an old broken record, but having been to St Petersburg and worked with Lukoil I hope that post war things change for the positive for normal everyday Russians too! They don’t deserve this level of a hit nor a suppressive regime like they have! I really hope they can get a political change in place and back towards an open market working the global countries. There’s some really lovely people in Russia, certainly feel sorry for them! My heart goes out to all effected, hopefully a peaceful end can be found and we can all start to rebuild Ukraine! 🇺🇦

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1 hour ago, It's Character Forming said:

LOL I can think of at least 1 poster who might disagree with you there....

😀

I just thought of another from the other side of the political divide.

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On 21/03/2022 at 20:32, KernowCanary said:

So, the Royals are “on tour” eating chocolate and dancing in Belize all while a war is on. Who cares?!.

Nice to see our tax pounds spent well, all while they jolly it up and Auntie Beeb see it as a way to distract from much more pressing matters. 

I think this maybe the last royal visit to the Caribbean.

https://caribbean.loopnews.com/content/belize-moving-towards-republicanism

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12 hours ago, Indy said:

Again I think we need to refer to Putin Russians, not Russia, I know of lots of my contacts and business we’ve worked including Lukoil absolutely horrified at this invasion! They try to be as vocal as they can but have to be careful for now.

Absolutely. No doubt Putin will have some supporters, but I thoroughly doubt in a country as dysfunctional as Russia, that most citizens are really all that content with their lot under him. Otherwise he wouldn't have such heavy censorship and be imprisoning / attempting to poison the likes of Navalny so readily.

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8 hours ago, TheGunnShow said:

Absolutely. No doubt Putin will have some supporters, but I thoroughly doubt in a country as dysfunctional as Russia, that most citizens are really all that content with their lot under him. Otherwise he wouldn't have such heavy censorship and be imprisoning / attempting to poison the likes of Navalny so readily.

There are so many claims and counter claims it’s hard to get a clear picture of how the war is being viewed in Russia, my feeling is that those more Western leaning City dwellers with access to independent media sources are very much against, presumably they are a minority when looked at the population as a whole? Would the majority who are fed the Russian media coverage be more supportive of Putin than they were before. Presumably if he is seeing an increase in his popularity at home this makes things even worse for Ukraine.

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12 hours ago, TheGunnShow said:

Absolutely. No doubt Putin will have some supporters, but I thoroughly doubt in a country as dysfunctional as Russia, that most citizens are really all that content with their lot under him. Otherwise he wouldn't have such heavy censorship and be imprisoning / attempting to poison the likes of Navalny so readily.

Trouble is, as that as more of his supporters distance themselves, the more paranoid he will become. He is already terrified of assassination apparently, aren't they all, because he knows ruling by fear not reward only goes skin deep.

Stalin blamed his Generals. Brezhnev blamed his agricultural scientists. Putin will have to blame his advisers.

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18 hours ago, Herman said:

Russians are running over their own commanders too. Unsure whether he's dead or very maimed but as with your post highlighting the narrative change, the signs are not positive for Russia but a bit better for an end to this war.

The issue is that this is a humiliation, and Putin can't accept a humiliation. I really think the seizure of the Donbas and a land bridge to Crimea is the aim now, though I worry that they will continue to press in an attempt to link up Transnistria. 

The reality is that Putin still has the ability to settle into an attritional conflict and it will be incredible if the Russians don't learn from their mistakes. The one thing I would say is that this is the single smallest generation of Russians on record, a fact not helped by this and one which might make the older style of Russian warfare, which pays slant regard to casualties, impossible.

Edited by 1902
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7 hours ago, 1902 said:

The issue is that this is a humiliation, and Putin can't accept a humiliation. I really think the seizure of the Donbas and a land bridge to Crimea is the aim now, though I worry that they will continue to press in an attempt to link up Transnistria. 

The reality is that Putin still has the ability to settle into an attritional conflict and it will be incredible if the Russians don't learn from their mistakes. The one thing I would say is that this is the single smallest generation of Russians on record, a fact not helped by this and one which might make the older style of Russian warfare, which pays slant regard to casualties, impossible.

That is a fear. He could drag it out in the hope the west gets bored and the focus turns off Ukraine.

It doesn't look like Russian tactics haven't really changed from the end of WW2. Flatten everything and everybody, including their own. The Ukrainian tactics, for a much smaller nation, seem far superior.

Anyway, here's an interesting thread on the Russian army which helps explain the problems with morale.

 

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6 minutes ago, Herman said:

That is a fear. He could drag it out in the hope the west gets bored and the focus turns off Ukraine.

It doesn't look like Russian tactics haven't really changed from the end of WW2. Flatten everything and everybody, including their own. The Ukrainian tactics, for a much smaller nation, seem far superior.

Anyway, here's an interesting thread on the Russian army which helps explain the problems with morale.

 

That’s a key point Herman, as in Slavutych where a peaceful protest got a result of the mayor released and the Russians to fall back out of the city! The fights not in the younger Russians. They’re too westernised! It’s those older and out of city types who still buy into this type of old school Soviet bull****e!

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8 minutes ago, Indy said:

That’s a key point Herman, as in Slavutych where a peaceful protest got a result of the mayor released and the Russians to fall back out of the city! The fights not in the younger Russians. They’re too westernised! It’s those older and out of city types who still buy into this type of old school Soviet bull****e!

Fake nostalgia and a return to misremembered pasts. It seems to be a problem infecting a few countries and causing a lot of damage.

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14 minutes ago, Herman said:

Fake nostalgia and a return to misremembered pasts. It seems to be a problem infecting a few countries and causing a lot of damage.

Indeed even our own, again mainly the outdated notion of UK empirical importance during Brexit!

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What is it with Biden has he actually got any functional control over his dementia! This must be the multiple time where he’s come out with an utterly inflammatory statement a leader should not come out with given the situation and having to backtrack to try and ease the tension! He’s a danger to everyone! **** me between him and our own Liz Truss & the bumbling idiot, I’m glad there’s more level headed leaders around.

Edited by Indy
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Now Bidens started, he might as well carry on.

The former USSR was petrified of Reagan and Thatcher and wouldn’t dare chance their arm. 
 

This would never have started under her government, no chance at all, she was feared and respected by authorities/ people of the former USSR. 

 Thatcher and the Beatles is what they wanted to talk about, when I first arrived in Ukraine many years ago, very big influences.

 

 

 

 

 

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The former USSR was petrified of Reagan and Thatcher and wouldn’t dare chance their arm. 

Albeit in the death throes of the "Evil Regime".

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I’m still at a loss to why anyone would want to escalate the war! Macron as much as I’m not his most enthusiastic supporter has to be commended in his actions here.

There’s no point in pushing a madman into the point of no return! It’s better to show him a way out and let time and pressure generate a way forwards.

The old Soviet Union was never afraid of the west, but as we all know the accident at Chernobyl open the door to collaboration in the fight against the accident and then into a cooperative and open relationship of more trust, allowing countries to bring about their own peaceful revolutions away from soviet rule!

Such a shame such an oppressive and aggressive man was allowed to gain power of a major power, but then that could be said of our own leader and of Trump! Sad times for global politics when the only better choice they had was Biden the zombie!

Edited by Indy

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1 hour ago, Indy said:

I’m still at a loss to why anyone would want to escalate the war! Macron as much as I’m not his most enthusiastic supporter has to be commended in his actions here.

There’s no point in pushing a madman into the point of no return! It’s better to show him a way out and let time and pressure generate a way forwards.

The old Soviet Union was never afraid of the west, but as we all know the accident at Chernobyl open the door to collaboration in the fight against the accident and then into a cooperative and open relationship of more trust, allowing countries to bring about their own peaceful revolutions away from soviet rule!

Such a shame such an oppressive and aggressive man was allowed to gain power of a major power, but then that could be said of our own leader and of Trump! Sad times for global politics when the only better choice they had was Biden the zombie!

I completely agree with you, that was a deeply unhelpful and stupid comment from Biden. It's just a ridiculously dangerous thing to say.

It also has no relevance to policy, it's not like we are going to be driving into Moscow given that we are too worried to drive as far as Kyiv. One of the key things in international relations is that if you say something that could be construed as a threat, it has to at least be credible. Otherwise you just attract derision and are as likely to provoke the opposite reaction.

At the start of this war, Putin took to threatening Finland and Sweden, that's backfired and made them more likely to join NATO because his threat was not realistic given the performance of his army. Now we have a US president making the same mistake.

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4 hours ago, 1902 said:

I completely agree with you, that was a deeply unhelpful and stupid comment from Biden. It's just a ridiculously dangerous thing to say.

It also has no relevance to policy, it's not like we are going to be driving into Moscow given that we are too worried to drive as far as Kyiv. One of the key things in international relations is that if you say something that could be construed as a threat, it has to at least be credible. Otherwise you just attract derision and are as likely to provoke the opposite reaction.

At the start of this war, Putin took to threatening Finland and Sweden, that's backfired and made them more likely to join NATO because his threat was not realistic given the performance of his army. Now we have a US president making the same mistake.

I don't  think it makes any difference  what Biden says or does, Putin is not going to stop pounding away at Ukraine and Ukraine is just the overture in his Greater Russia plan. Putin is not looking for a diplomatic solution.

Its the Russian way of war, if they cant get their way in the initial attack they will just destroy everything with artillery, drive the population out and eventually  replace it with their own sympathizers eg Grozny, Aleppo etc. The best we can hope for is that it drags on long enough to bleed them dry both physically  and financially so they don't  have the strength for the next step. A brutal solution but the only realistic way to ensure they don't win.

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1 hour ago, ricardo said:

I don't  think it makes any difference  what Biden says or does, Putin is not going to stop pounding away at Ukraine and Ukraine is just the overture in his Greater Russia plan. Putin is not looking for a diplomatic solution.

Its the Russian way of war, if they cant get their way in the initial attack they will just destroy everything with artillery, drive the population out and eventually  replace it with their own sympathizers eg Grozny, Aleppo etc. The best we can hope for is that it drags on long enough to bleed them dry both physically  and financially so they don't  have the strength for the next step. A brutal solution but the only realistic way to ensure they don't win.

I disagree, I'm not so convinced that Russia will fight on and on in Ukraine, Putin is not a stupid man. Cruel and badly informed by his intelligence services, yes, but not an idiot.

One of the issues is that we don't have much knowledge of the situation with regards to Russian munitions stocks and how fast their industry can work to replace them. We also know that spare parts for certain systems will inevitably be in short supply. That Russian way of war possibly in Grozny and Aleppo purely because they are relatively small targets which also were the centres of resistance and where active defence was not really an option. The last time they tried to maintain this scale of war effort against a large country which was resisting was 1945, that was when their comparative manpower and industrial base was considerably larger.

The second is that many of Putin's other geopolitical and national priorities are being damaged by this campaign. His army is going to take years to rebuild without the funds to do it, he has lost the respect of China, Central Asia, Finland and Sweden. The birth rate will plummet and the demographic echo which was already a threat will grow. Additionally the pie with which he funds his loyalists will also shrink.

The one thing he will not tolerate is any idea of regime change.

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On 26/03/2022 at 19:17, Indy said:

That’s a key point Herman, as in Slavutych where a peaceful protest got a result of the mayor released and the Russians to fall back out of the city! The fights not in the younger Russians. They’re too westernised! It’s those older and out of city types who still buy into this type of old school Soviet bull****e!

The Russian army is disproportionately drawn from rural and ethnically non-Russians.

The "westernised" Russians (which I think is more accurately described as middle class) generally have the wherewithal and means to avoid conscription and certainly would never sign up to be kontraktniki

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On 25/03/2022 at 17:16, Indy said:

Indeed, I know I’m like an old broken record, but having been to St Petersburg and worked with Lukoil I hope that post war things change for the positive for normal everyday Russians too! They don’t deserve this level of a hit nor a suppressive regime like they have! I really hope they can get a political change in place and back towards an open market working the global countries. There’s some really lovely people in Russia, certainly feel sorry for them! My heart goes out to all effected, hopefully a peaceful end can be found and we can all start to rebuild Ukraine! 🇺🇦

Broken records don’t even play, if you sounded like one you wouldn’t have posted this as you would have been silent on the issue; I think “scratched” or “old” record sounds more appropriate when it comes to repeating the same things.

Anyhow, I don’t think you sound like any of the above, as you are simply trying to get a point across and one I agree with totally.

Edited by KernowCanary

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Do we still have the right to question what we are told without any evidence? How much longer can this sensationalising escalating western talk by Biden and Boris last without the talk of 'demanding a ceasefire'?

what we are told is not always true. the Ukrainian soldiers who died at the now historic snake island incident are all alive, Pow's. As for the lack of evidence of hundreds of dead in the theater bombing, who has questioned it? and what evidence have our so called brave BBC journalists got for it?

https://consortiumnews.com/2022/03/26/the-bbcs-ukrainian-war-messager/

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