Ok so say we need 7 wins

[Jim Smith 2,314]

Ignoring 3 or 4 "write off" fixtures (Man City, Liverpool, Chelsea and Man U) I was looking at our remaining games and it doesn't look completely impossible given who we have left to play at home in particular. Bold games the obvious targets. 

Home games left:

Palace, Man City, Brentford, Chelsea, Burnley, Newcastle, West Ham, Spurs

Away games left:

Watford, Liverpool, Southampton, Leeds, Brighton, Man U, Villa, Wolves

If we can just perform v Watford and Palace we can give ourselves a shout here. Still a tough ask unless we can find a completely unpectted bonus win against one of the big 6 but I don't look at that fixture list and think 6 or 7 wins is out of the question (and yes I know we've only won 3 so far) if we can play with the intensity of the Man U and Everton home games.  

 

[hogesar 9,616]

Not much wiggle-room in terms of fixtures you'd expect us to be capable of a result. For example, pick up nothing at home to Palace & Brentford and you'd have to say game over.

[yellowrider120 761]

29 minutes ago, Jim Smith said:

Ignoring 3 or 4 "write off" fixtures (Man City, Liverpool, Chelsea and Man U) I was looking at our remaining games and it doesn't look completely impossible given who we have left to play at home in particular. Bold games the obvious targets. 

Home games left:

Palace, Man City, Brentford, Chelsea, Burnley, Newcastle, West Ham, Spurs

Away games left:

Watford, Liverpool, Southampton, Leeds, Brighton, Man U, Villa, Wolves

If we can just perform v Watford and Palace we can give ourselves a shout here. Still a tough ask unless we can find a completely unpectted bonus win against one of the big 6 but I don't look at that fixture list and think 6 or 7 wins is out of the question (and yes I know we've only won 3 so far) if we can play with the intensity of the Man U and Everton home games.  

 

I do agree with the main thrust of this argument although I think we will really struggle to get anything at Villa the way the scouser is revving them up! As you say the next two games are absolutely pivotal. In my mind, nothing less than six points must be garnered. IF we can do that then we are well and truly back in it unless of course one of the other three do likewise.    

[Worthy Nigelton 1,037]

We have only won 3 in 21 so to win 7 in the last 17 seems tough. Saturday has given us some hope but I cant see us doing that well in the last part of the season. Doubt we will need seven wins to stay up though so we are not done yet.

[Wacky Waving Inflatable Arm Flailing Tube Man 3,777]

Unless one of Watford, Newcastle or Burnley put a strong run together, it won't even be seven. Even if one of them does put a good run together, six wins and the odd draw may still be enough.

[canarydan23 4,060]

1 minute ago, yellowrider120 said:

I do agree with the main thrust of this argument although I think we will really struggle to get anything at Villa the way the scouser is revving them up! As you say the next two games are absolutely pivotal. In my mind, nothing less than six points must be garnered. IF we can do that then we are well and truly back in it unless of course one of the other three do likewise.    

The hope would be that Villa are on the beach by that point and only playing for relatively meaningless mid-table positions. That could be the case for all four of our final fixtures.

[Newtopia 517]

10 minutes ago, hogesar said:

Not much wiggle-room in terms of fixtures you'd expect us to be capable of a result. For example, pick up nothing at home to Palace & Brentford and you'd have to say game over.

We would have to play brilliantly to win two thirds of the winnable games.   A tough ask. 

[Fuzzar 1,702]

7 minutes ago, Wacky Waving Inflatable Arm Flailing Tube Man said:

Unless one of Watford, Newcastle or Burnley put a strong run together, it won't even be seven. Even if one of them does put a good run together, six wins and the odd draw may still be enough.

I think this will be right and should get us to 32 to 34 points. The higher end of this range might be enough this season. 

[Google Bot 3,256]

19 minutes ago, Worthy Nigelton said:

We have only won 3 in 21 so to win 7 in the last 17 seems tough. Saturday has given us some hope but I cant see us doing that well in the last part of the season.

Under Farke we averaged 0.45 points per game, with Smith it's 0.8 points per game.  He's nearly doubled our points output and managed for similar amount of games, plus had to deal with an awful period of injuries and covid which is comparable to Farke's tough start of the season.

Win at Watford puts as at the survival form rate of exactly 1 pt/game under Smith.  Trouble is we're chasing from the points tally he inherited from Farke, so we're looking at hitting 1.3 points per game to get to the 35 pt mark.  Basically, his job is 30% harder than it should be.

As you say, it's a very very tough ask.  It was an already hard job to survive this season, that extra percentage is somewhat overwhelming.

Edited January 17, 2022 by Google Bot

[canarydan23 4,060]

1 hour ago, Google Bot said:

Under Farke we averaged 0.45 points per game, with Smith it's 0.8 points per game.  He's nearly doubled our points output and managed for similar amount of games, plus had to deal with an awful period of injuries and covid which is comparable to Farke's tough start of the season.

Win at Watford puts as at the survival form rate of exactly 1 pt/game under Smith.  Trouble is we're chasing from the points tally he inherited from Farke, so we're looking at hitting 1.3 points per game to get to the 35 pt mark.  Basically, his job is 30% harder than it should be.

As you say, it's a very very tough ask.  It was an already hard job to survive this season, that extra percentage is somewhat overwhelming.

There is a bit more nuance to it than that though. Farke was residing over a period where new players were bedding in new signings, the majority of which were having to adjust to life in a new country, and had to start the campaign with the worst preseason I think any club had to endure, so were markedly less well-prepared than they should/would have been in normal circumstances.

Smith, having taken over after the consequences of these factors had already borne out and taken their toll, has a slightly better hand from that perspective. A PPG comparison really doesn't offer a great deal given the unique factors of this season. I think it's why so many fans were perplexed at the sacking following the Brentford victory; there was plenty of evidence that our woeful start was down to more than coach ineptitude.

I'm all aboard the Smith Express now, but I'm still far from convinced that we have a better points haul now than we would have done under Farke.

[kirku 1,332]

That's all well and good, but the BBC have said we're "certainties for relegation" so what's the point?

[Yellow Fever 3,743]

There is a **** of light, a hope. Nothing is certain.

What we'll need is good performances, a largely injury free run and a big slice of much overdue luck (which you usually get from putting the ball in the box c.f. Everton o.g.).

All to play for still starting Friday.

[hertfordyellow 460]

2 hours ago, Wacky Waving Inflatable Arm Flailing Tube Man said:

Unless one of Watford, Newcastle or Burnley put a strong run together, it won't even be seven. Even if one of them does put a good run together, six wins and the odd draw may still be enough.

I agree. I think five wins 6-7 draws will do it. Still a big ask. I think we have left it too late unfortunately but if we can have a good finish to the season it makes next season easier to prepare for.

[kirku 1,332]

1 hour ago, Yellow Fever said:

There is a **** of light, a hope. Nothing is certain.

What we'll need is good performances, a largely injury free run and a big slice of much overdue luck (which you usually get from putting the ball in the box c.f. Everton o.g.).

All to play for still starting Friday.

Racist 

[The Real Buh 3,423]

Look, I think we are all getting a little carried away. 
 

I was very happy with the result Saturday, and moreso with the attitude and performance but the likelihood of us escaping relegation is ridiculously slim.

I feel conflicted because part of me can’t wait to be out of this league because it’s an absolute hell hole filled with corrupt, billionaire playthings. A absolute abomination of what football is supposed to be. However, another part of me would want to stay just out of pure spite. So many people don’t want us in this league that stay on it would be pretty satisfying.

whatever happens, we remain Norwich fans. F@£k everyone else.

[Greavsy 2,412]

1 minute ago, The Real Buh said:

Look, I think we are all getting a little carried away. 
 

I was very happy with the result Saturday, and moreso with the attitude and performance but the likelihood of us escaping relegation is ridiculously slim.

I feel conflicted because part of me can’t wait to be out of this league because it’s an absolute hell hole filled with corrupt, billionaire playthings. A absolute abomination of what football is supposed to be. However, another part of me would want to stay just out of pure spite. So many people don’t want us in this league that stay on it would be pretty satisfying.

whatever happens, we remain Norwich fans. F@£k everyone else.

Looks like fence sitting to me, Cheerful! 

[Ulfotto 622]

To quote Kevin Keegan I would love it if we stayed up.

It is possible, we just need no more injuries and a lot of luck of our side.

[glory.win or die. 270]

It's hard to judge with the bottom 4 teams playing different amounts of games but, looking at the pts tally only  we are all in a similar position

Maybe we will need 7 wins, which sounds unlikely but burnley Watford and Newcastle need 7 wins too

I can't help feeling we will all be back to normal on Friday after losing 3 nil to Watford with a whimper but I really want this time to be different 

[Indy 3,283]

I agree with Buh, I’m not enamoured in this league, simple facts are to be competitive you need lots of money……..Newcastle will no doubt buy enough quality to get to mid thirties and it’ll leave us, Burnley & Watford down.

Seven wins, we’ve only won three in 21 games, if we win another three will be good going.

Yes EFL is more competitive as the FFP does have an impact, but if we go back up it’s all the same again! I’m not sure it’s actually worth all the frustration! But to keep the money coming in and continually improving the club is good so we have to put up with it……or we just tread water in the Championship! At least we do have young exciting prospects coming through, some things are good!

[Midlands Yellow 3,929]

Top 24 or is it top 26? Either way it’s a winner for me and the journey continues. 

[Robert N. LiM 4,240]

8 hours ago, canarydan23 said:

Smith, having taken over after the consequences of these factors had already borne out and taken their toll, has a slightly better hand from that perspective.

This is fair enough, but if you're going to say this you surely also need to acknowledge that Smith had his squad decimated by covid at a point when it looked like he was making us much more competitive. I'd be tempted to remove the Villa, Arsenal and Palace games from his record: we had no chance in those games given the circumstances.

As far as the OP is concerned, no need to look so far ahead. Let's beat Watford. It's about time. 

Edited January 17, 2022 by Robert N. LiM

[Capt. Pants 4,195]

So many variables you can't look too far ahead. If Burnley fail to get their game called off and get beat by Watford, who then beat an under strength Norwich on Friday, it's game over.

[Robert N. LiM 4,240]

6 hours ago, The Real Buh said:

However, another part of me would want to stay just out of pure spite. So many people don’t want us in this league that stay on it would be pretty satisfying.

If we stay up the the open-top bus tour should go past TalkSport's offices.

[paddycanary 538]

1 hour ago, Robert N. LiM said:

This is fair enough, but if you're going to say this you surely also need to acknowledge that Smith had his squad decimated by covid at a point when it looked like he was making us much more competitive. I'd be tempted to remove the Villa, Arsenal and Palace games from his record: we had no chance in those games given the circumstances.

As far as the OP is concerned, no need to look so far ahead. Let's beat Watford. It's about time. 

We certainly owe Watford one. You would imagine this group of players would dearly love to nick a win in this game. Will probably be Gunn in goal with Byram at RB. As you were otherwise. I wonder will a central two of Lungi & PLM be enough to properly compete in the engine room? Another win would transform morale and get a bit of momentum going. OTBC

[If wed kept Howie.. 199]

we just need to "out win" Burnley, Newcastle and Watford... definitely doable..

[KernowCanary 214]

West Brom only won six matches in 2004-05, more than us and Palace that season both on seven, while they had the same number of wins as bottom finishers Southampton.

The relegation battle that season was tougher at the same point this season, so I don’t think we will need seven, maybe five or six wins.

[Christoph Stiepermann 1,131]

We're not going to pick up positive results in all of the bold fixtures even if we play at our best. See the Wolves and Man Utd games as reference to that. If we're going to have any chance we're going to need a handful of points from the unwinnable games as well.

 

I still consider us gone right now even though I'm hoping for a more spirited and less depressing final run of the season. For me we need to prove we can beat the physical, fast counter attacking sides like Watford and Palace before I'll believe we'll have enough, We've lost pretty much every game in the PL in our past 3 seasons at this level against sides like that and we realistically need at last 4 points from the next two games against them.

It's a really tall order to win one and draw one after losing to them every single time for so long but do that and I'll start to think we have some hope again because that would really signify that things have changed under this head coach and that the players actually do have the physicality required

Edited January 18, 2022 by Christoph Stiepermann

[Heading South 24]

On 17/01/2022 at 10:14, Jim Smith said:

Ignoring 3 or 4 "write off" fixtures (Man City, Liverpool, Chelsea and Man U) I was looking at our remaining games and it doesn't look completely impossible given who we have left to play at home in particular. Bold games the obvious targets. 

Home games left:

Palace, Man City, Brentford, Chelsea, Burnley, Newcastle, West Ham, Spurs

Away games left:

Watford, Liverpool, Southampton, Leeds, Brighton, Man U, Villa, Wolves

If we can just perform v Watford and Palace we can give ourselves a shout here. Still a tough ask unless we can find a completely unpectted bonus win against one of the big 6 but I don't look at that fixture list and think 6 or 7 wins is out of the question (and yes I know we've only won 3 so far) if we can play with the intensity of the Man U and Everton home games.  

 

Another delusional post ….. wake up and smell the coffee , not going to happen that would take a another tablet .

[Canary Wundaboy 1,358]

3 hours ago, If wed kept Howie.. said:

we just need to "out win" Burnley, Newcastle and Watford... definitely doable..

This is my approach too. Some are saying that 7 wins is a big ask, but we have 3 wins already, Newcastle and Burnley have 1 apiece. If we can beat Watford and go above them, we just need to get more wins that those 3 for the rest of the season. I honestly believe that’s doable with the players due back and the confidence that will come with getting out of the bottom 3. 

[duke63 541]

We have won 4 of our last 12 games(including the cup game), strangely and i think its fair to say that the Villa, Arsenal and Palace games we were woefully understrength.