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Darth Canary1

How many points this season to survive?

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I personally think low 30’s. A big if but if we get 5 more wins and 5 draws from final games then we will have a chance IMO. It also depends who we get the 5 wins from too. Watford on Friday would really put the cat amongst the pigeons.

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I have a horrible feeling that if we do start picking up points then so will our relegation rivals. Just the way probabilities seem to go (although they don't of course).

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We still have to play Watford, Burnley, Brighton, Palace, Southampton, Newcastle, Brentford, Villa, Wolves and Leeds. If we could pick up 5 wins and a couple of draws we still need to get two or three more surprise results against City, Utd, Chelsea, Liverpool, West Ham, Leicester and Spurs.

Can't see it myself. I am at least quite confident that we will beat our 21 points from last time, but I think the 33-34 we will need is just too many.

As ron says above, as soon as we start picking up points, others will too. It just adds extra motivation. 

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I think 35 too. I reckon at least 1 team (likely Newcastle) will probably pick up significant points and we will have to stay ahead of them. 30 is very unlikely to be enough

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Tend to agree six wins and two draws might be enough, but if I’m honest Leeds, Everton and Brentford will end up on 35 + points so it’s really down to Newcastle, will they hit the correct formation and run of games to get above 32 points!

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It is a much more positive discussion than when we can’t score and thought we had no hope of winning any games.

35

Edited by Newtopia

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Burnley I think are down without their talisman Chris Wood, but Newcastle/Watford/Everton/Leeds will likely improve, so the points tally needed will go up quite quickly imo.  We will obviously have to keep pace with that to give ourselves a chance, but I wouldn't be surprised if what is needed is in the high 30's with Brenford sucked into it too. 23 points needed from 17 games to give us 36 in all. Should be enough.  Six wins, 5 draws, or 7 wins and 2 draws.

Of the games remaining.......

Watford away 3

Crystal Palace home 3

Man City home 0

Liverpool away 0

Southampton away 1

Brentford home 3

Leeds away 1

Chelsea home 0

Brighton away 1

Burnley home 3

Man Utd away 0

Newcastle home 3

Villa away 0

West Ham home 3

Wolves away 0

Spurs home 3

            Total - 37 points

If we get to those last four games with the previous results as I suggest (which doesn't look unreasonable to me, if we can play like yesterday - any one of those last four games could yield the results we need. 

 

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14 minutes ago, lake district canary said:

Burnley I think are down without their talisman Chris Wood, but Newcastle/Watford/Everton/Leeds will likely improve, so the points tally needed will go up quite quickly imo.  We will obviously have to keep pace with that to give ourselves a chance, but I wouldn't be surprised if what is needed is in the high 30's with Brenford sucked into it too. 23 points needed from 17 games to give us 36 in all. Should be enough.  Six wins, 5 draws, or 7 wins and 2 draws.

Of the games remaining.......

Watford away 3

Crystal Palace home 3

Man City home 0

Liverpool away 0

Southampton away 1

Brentford home 3

Leeds away 1

Chelsea home 0

Brighton away 1

Burnley home 3

Man Utd away 0

Newcastle home 3

Villa away 0

West Ham home 3

Wolves away 0

Spurs home 3

            Total - 37 points

If we get to those last four games with the previous results as I suggest (which doesn't look unreasonable to me, if we can play like yesterday - any one of those last four games could yield the results we need. 

 

That is actually a sobering analysis- although possible it looks mighty tricky and no real room for error.

OTBC

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24 minutes ago, lake district canary said:

Burnley I think are down without their talisman Chris Wood, but Newcastle/Watford/Everton/Leeds will likely improve, so the points tally needed will go up quite quickly imo.  We will obviously have to keep pace with that to give ourselves a chance, but I wouldn't be surprised if what is needed is in the high 30's with Brenford sucked into it too. 23 points needed from 17 games to give us 36 in all. Should be enough.  Six wins, 5 draws, or 7 wins and 2 draws.

Of the games remaining.......

Watford away 3

Crystal Palace home 3

Man City home 0

Liverpool away 0

Southampton away 1

Brentford home 3

Leeds away 1

Chelsea home 0

Brighton away 1

Burnley home 3

Man Utd away 0

Newcastle home 3

Villa away 0

West Ham home 3

Wolves away 0

Spurs home 3

            Total - 37 points

If we get to those last four games with the previous results as I suggest (which doesn't look unreasonable to me, if we can play like yesterday - any one of those last four games could yield the results we need. 

 

Looks reasonable. Except I feel the Newcastle, West Ham & Spurs results are a little optimistic. I would have to say a draw for each of these.

Another aspect that will help is to bounce back from a loss and not get dragged back into a habit of losing.

Edited by CirclePoint
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24 minutes ago, lake district canary said:

 

Of the games remaining.......

Watford away 3

Crystal Palace home 3

I love your optimism but three PL wins in a row?

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For those saying 30 is unlikely, it was enough last season.

To be absolutely certain usually around 36 is certain safety. 40 is often the given target but in reality, that tends to be more.

15 more points would put us on 28. That would be dodgy ground IMHO, might be enough, might not. Over 30 and I think we're looking better.

That's a tall ask. 17points. That's a point per game when we have managed just over half of that ratio so far. We'd need our squad to remain injury and illness free, for the most part. The remaining games we have against the lower teams we need to pick up more points in as others have said. What's more, every team in and around us up to Brentford in 14th has at least a game in hand on us. A lot will depend upon how those teams get on in those games too.

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It's great we're even talking about it. I think our first target should be to go past the 20(?) points we got last time. While the great escape would be amazing, finishing 18th or 19th but genuinely being in the mix until late in the season would suggest we're still making progress as a club. We get a lot of stick, but WBA and Fulham's struggles show that making that step up is really difficult. Starting another Championship season next year having had a really good go at staying up would be so much better than starting one after finishing laughably adrift.

 

 

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Sorry I thought I’d was just the question how many points for safety not if we’ll get enough! Sorry Lakey you’re forecast is in the land of the extreme unlikelihood…..we’ve managed to pick up 0.6 points per game to now, we’d have to improve that to top 6 form for the rest of the season to 1.4 points per game! Just never getting to 37 points.

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To be honest I think Newcastle will stop up, they are bound to bring more players in.

Edited by Alex

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Probably 8-10 more points than we get. Don't let the hope kill you.

30 points wasn't enough last season. Burnley finished 17th on 39 points so, if one of the bottom 3 were to have survived, they would have needed 40 points to be sure.

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I reckon 34 will probably be enough but I don't think we will get that many and I would be surprised if we get above 30. I know we won yesterday and I am buzzing with that but Everton are a mess and had won one game in thirteen and their manager was the brink of being sacked. Additionally we had not scored until yesterday since the Newcastle game in November, And we have scored 10 goals all season. I am not expecting us to magically be good all of a sudden.

Edited by Alex
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44 minutes ago, lake district canary said:

Burnley I think are down without their talisman Chris Wood, but Newcastle/Watford/Everton/Leeds will likely improve, so the points tally needed will go up quite quickly imo.  We will obviously have to keep pace with that to give ourselves a chance, but I wouldn't be surprised if what is needed is in the high 30's with Brenford sucked into it too. 23 points needed from 17 games to give us 36 in all. Should be enough.  Six wins, 5 draws, or 7 wins and 2 draws.

Of the games remaining.......

Watford away 3

Crystal Palace home 3

Man City home 0

Liverpool away 0

Southampton away 1

Brentford home 3

Leeds away 1

Chelsea home 0

Brighton away 1

Burnley home 3

Man Utd away 0

Newcastle home 3

Villa away 0

West Ham home 3

Wolves away 0

Spurs home 3

            Total - 37 points

If we get to those last four games with the previous results as I suggest (which doesn't look unreasonable to me, if we can play like yesterday - any one of those last four games could yield the results we need. 

While I can't see the above happening, I thought I'd look at the numbers from previous seasons to see what has been achieved from teams in the relegation zone after 21 games.

No team in the last 10 years have managed to stay up with 13 points from where we are...but two with 15 have.

One finished with 43 points, one with 41. It would take all the stars aligning for the same to happen to us; I give us about a 5% chance tops. 

OTBC

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39 minutes ago, Petriix said:

30 points wasn't enough last season. Burnley finished 17th on 39 points so, if one of the bottom 3 were to have survived, they would have needed 40 points to be sure.

No offence, but that is really odd reasoning.

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41 minutes ago, Petriix said:

Probably 8-10 more points than we get. Don't let the hope kill you.

30 points wasn't enough last season. Burnley finished 17th on 39 points so, if one of the bottom 3 were to have survived, they would have needed 40 points to be sure.

Depends how you want to spin it. Fulham went down with 28pts. 

You can argue that 40 was required to finish in 17th... or you can say 29 would have been enough to finish in 17th. Depending upon how you look at it.

The question is, if 40pts truly is enough, do we see all of the teams currently in 17th to say, 14th, getting the 39pts that Burnley did last season? I don't. And no matter how many players Newcastle sign I don't see it either. They are trying to sign quality premier league players whilst being in a precarious position. Sure they have wealth, but one would have to say that the players that go to them will be doing so purely for the wages they can offer as the level of football next season may not be that attractive if they are relegated.

It's going to take some work to keep some integrity and unity with that squad too.

Burnley, I see, are being linked with Phil Jones... they've just sold their best striker... Only a rumour but if true - what the heck?

Are Watford hugely better than us? They and Brentford have had the better starts but it seems they are faltering a bit at the moment. 

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26 minutes ago, Ian said:

No offence, but that is really odd reasoning.

I think it's exactly correct reasoning. Assuming one of the bottom three wanted to not finish bottom three, they needed to overtake the team in 17th. This required 39 points (+GD) or more. Unless you are magically introducing an 'extra' 21st team where they could finish 4th from bottom by getting 29+ points, but that is not the situation any of the teams were in. If Sheff Utd, West Brom or Fulham wanted to avoid relegation, they needed 39+ points.

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26 minutes ago, All the Germans said:

I think it's exactly correct reasoning. Assuming one of the bottom three wanted to not finish bottom three, they needed to overtake the team in 17th. This required 39 points (+GD) or more. Unless you are magically introducing an 'extra' 21st team where they could finish 4th from bottom by getting 29+ points, but that is not the situation any of the teams were in. If Sheff Utd, West Brom or Fulham wanted to avoid relegation, they needed 39+ points.

So did Burnley need more than 29 points to survive or not?

My point is that it is very odd to argue that the bottom three teams needed 40 points to overhaul Burnley and avoid relegation IMO, because that would imply the results that occurred in reality would be different. If that's the case, it could have been that the bottom three took more points off Burnley and/or other teams in lower positions, and therefore the points total to overhaul Burnley may have been vastly different.

Ultimately, you can't say either way. The only thing you can factually say IMO is that Burnley needed 29 points to avoid relegation last season, but on average you need more than that to survive.

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It was 28 points last season goal difference permitting, so 29 to survive on points at the least.

The bottom three that season never got out of the bottom four and this season it is going the same way so far. As a result we need to buck the trend and get out of it.

I think this season it will be 30, so that’s five more wins and then two more draws. It’s been a very long time since 40+ points were needed as a bare minimum to survive. Ever since Blackpool and Birmingham went down on 39 each in 2010-11, nobody else has gone down on a greater or same total. Wigan stayed up on 40, the last time that number of points at least was needed to stay up, avoiding a goal difference tie breaker.

Edited by KernowCanary

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