Can we afford to spend, can we afford not to spend

[Canaries north 151]

In our current plight, both financial ( self funding ) and on the pitch, do we stick or twist. On the pitch it looks like the season is over. The league table says different. The teams above us are going to sign players to try to stay up. Newcastle Arabia will obviously spend. Watford according to the Athletic have a DM and a LB already done and are looking for 2 CB's. How many players do we need to even look competitive. I honestly can't see any point in spending any more money after the disaster of summer recruitment unless it's players ready for a championship push. It's a really sad situation that my feelings on the club are so low that I don't even want to see us try. 

[cambridgeshire canary 6,712]

We can afford to spend but only if we sell.

[Don’t be Krul 399]

We will sell but I really cannot see players wanting to come here right now. Poor, poor side and the lack of noise from Webber & Co leads me to think not all is well behind the scenes, just an opinion

[Canaries north 151]

2 minutes ago, Don’t be Krul said:

We will sell but I really cannot see players wanting to come here right now. Poor, poor side and the lack of noise from Webber & Co leads me to think not all is well behind the scenes, just an opinion

Do you think it's better to save the money for next season. I can't see anyone worth having coming to us this window but next window we will either have had a miracle and stayed up or rightly or wrongly be one of the favourites for promotion. Surely that will be the best time to sign players. Everything is so negative at the moment but even with relegation the chances of promotion would put a more positive spin on things. 

[hepphep 175]

I'm bit sceptic on January spending. Last time in Prem the January gamble did not work well at all, even though Rupp has proved as valuable addition later on, the instant impact was not there. 

In a way, I think that we either have to get the things to work with current squad or not at all. Maybe we could get lucky with one major investment, but getting multiple right during hard January window does not just sound likely.

But what options would that leave?
Try to keep current team and trust them to turn the boat?
Cashing some of the players that could be of value and are possibly not here in two or three years anymore (Aarons, Cantwell, Pukki?) and prepare next step of rebuilding by hiring players to be bed in for next season already?

I actually cannot make my mind of which would feel like the right thing to do.

[Dean Coneys boots 1,400]

We are so far behind - it might say three points but look hard at the goals for and against and the gap becomes more obvious. Which is to say other teams have done badly which has masked how rubbish we actually have been at this level. To get seriously competitive we need two physical midfielders and a striker - we can’t afford one of those. It’s over - bank the money, lick the wounds and wait for the summer 

[Newtopia 517]

I just want us to compete.

[Jim Smith 2,317]

We need to get a defensive midfielder in. Genuinely believe that will transform us (if he’s reasonable). Despite our lack of goals we do create chances. A bit of pace up front would be welcome as well but if we sign one player in this window it must be a CDM. 

Edited January 3, 2022 by Jim Smith

[Dean Coneys boots 1,400]

1 minute ago, Newtopia said:

I just want us to compete.

That will need a wholesale clear out of the average championship players and a retention of the decent premiership quality players. Being self funding the polar opposite will occur - we will sell Aarons and buy a worse player. It’s a rinse and repeat of summer 

[Mello Yello 2,289]

You can't spend what you haven't got....especially when you have those bills for the absolute essentials......

[Ulfotto 632]

Bear in mind Watford may just shift players between Udinese and the other clubs they own.

 

[Naturalcynic 629]

2 minutes ago, Newtopia said:

I just want us to compete.

Yes, but at this level we obviously can’t and spending what little we have on a mediocre CDM isn’t going to save us.  Sadly, as I think is becoming increasingly clear, our self-funding model doesn’t work in the Prem, but it might take a couple of seasons of scrapping in the Championship (or even another relegation to League One) for D&M to finally realise that they’re perhaps not acting in the best interests of the Club.

[Wings of a Sparrow 1,414]

1 hour ago, Don’t be Krul said:

We will sell but I really cannot see players wanting to come here right now. Poor, poor side and the lack of noise from Webber & Co leads me to think not all is well behind the scenes, just an opinion

Is there actually any meat on the bones of this lack of noise from Webber regurgitated guff? I don't recall them stepping up to the microphone every time our fans think they need to 🤔

[hepphep 175]

34 minutes ago, Jim Smith said:

We need to get a defensive midfielder in. Genuinely believe that will transform us (if he’s reasonable). Despite our lack of goals we do create chances. A bit of pace up front would be welcome as well but if we sign one player in this window it must be a CDM. 

I agree with need of defensive midfielder. However, I find the "we do create chances" part tough to swallow. It keeps popping up every now and then, but I can find no statistics that support it. Actually the statistics are against it. 

If you only check Premier League's own statistics for big chances created (screenshot) for 10 worst teams in creating big chances, we are worst by a margin.

So, in practice we are creating about 30% less big chances than Newcastle which is the second worst team in creating such. When compared to Watford, they are actually creation 130% more big chances that we are.

This same can be seen in xG values for worst 10 teams when comparing xG

xG differences are smaller, mainly because they take in account the other than big chances. 

If looking at stats, it would seem that we create some amount of chances from numerical perspective, but we really are not creating good chances at all. Therefore talking about creating chances is misleading for us and easily ends up to thinking that we create chances but just don't take them. It is like if we would start shooting from middle of the pitch and telling that we just created lots more chances. So, finishing has not been top notch either, but we really are not creating those good chances either. 
Interesting thing is that there is nobody that is missing lots of chances individually when looking at individual xG values. Actually most of the players are maximum at -1, which just means that their expectations would've been to score one goal so far but they haven't just done it. 

Oh well, but that's just about hearing lots of talk that we create chance and trying to figure out why we keep hearing that 😄
 

[Canaries north 151]

59 minutes ago, Ulfotto said:

Bear in mind Watford may just shift players between Udinese and the other clubs they own.

 

The players named are not from udinese from what the athletic have said. 

[Canaries north 151]

My own personal opinion is we don't spend anything this window unless we can get players who are here for the championship. If we can, sign some good championship players who have the ability to help us bounce back up but could also help us if promoted rather than players for now. This goes against everything I have bashed the club for with regards to the summer window but is a tragic indictment of where we are. It would cost way too much to rectify the squad now to stay up but could give us a better chance in the future. I'm so upset with myself that I am willing to accept chucking this season away for the greater good. Sounds so 2019 2020. 

[Capt. Pants 4,226]

We are in the Premier League and only 3 points from safety. I suspect Webber and co would have accepted that as a scenario to work with last summer. For heavens sake let's just show a bit of ambition to stay there.

[Jim Smith 2,317]

36 minutes ago, hepphep said:

I agree with need of defensive midfielder. However, I find the "we do create chances" part tough to swallow. It keeps popping up every now and then, but I can find no statistics that support it. Actually the statistics are against it. 

If you only check Premier League's own statistics for big chances created (screenshot) for 10 worst teams in creating big chances, we are worst by a margin.

So, in practice we are creating about 30% less big chances than Newcastle which is the second worst team in creating such. When compared to Watford, they are actually creation 130% more big chances that we are.

This same can be seen in xG values for worst 10 teams when comparing xG

xG differences are smaller, mainly because they take in account the other than big chances. 

If looking at stats, it would seem that we create some amount of chances from numerical perspective, but we really are not creating good chances at all. Therefore talking about creating chances is misleading for us and easily ends up to thinking that we create chances but just don't take them. It is like if we would start shooting from middle of the pitch and telling that we just created lots more chances. So, finishing has not been top notch either, but we really are not creating those good chances either. 
Interesting thing is that there is nobody that is missing lots of chances individually when looking at individual xG values. Actually most of the players are maximum at -1, which just means that their expectations would've been to score one goal so far but they haven't just done it. 

Oh well, but that's just about hearing lots of talk that we create chance and trying to figure out why we keep hearing that 😄
 

I can only go by what I see with my own eyes but against Wolves, Newcastle, Spurs and even at Palace recently we’ve missed several good chances. Not saying we have 15 per game but under Smith we’ve been creating enough to have scored quite a few more.

[Kenny Foggo 1,116]

If we don't strengthen in January and attempt to give Dean Smith a chance, it will say all about our owners ambitions and thoughts for our club.

[Alex 26]

2 hours ago, Ulfotto said:

Bear in mind Watford may just shift players between Udinese and the other clubs they own.

 

None of their January signings so far have come from Udinese. They signed a left back from France and some lad from Belgium I think it was and are apparently close to signing Croatia centre back Vida.  Because Watford create chances and score goals they could be in with half a shout of staying up if they sort their defence out.  Fair play to them if they give it a go. Unfortunately I don't think we will strengthen and probably fall further behind once the other teams improve.  

Edited January 3, 2022 by Alex

[Wings of a Sparrow 1,414]

3 minutes ago, Kenny Foggo said:

If we don't strengthen in January and attempt to give Dean Smith a chance, it will say all about our owners ambitions and thoughts for our club.

If your username is an indication of how long you have been supporting the club, then you will know exactly what the owners thoughts are about the club, and the constraints under which they have to work.

[Kenny Foggo 1,116]

13 minutes ago, Wings of a Sparrow said:

If your username is an indication of how long you have been supporting the club, then you will know exactly what the owners thoughts are about the club, and the constraints under which they have to work.

The constraints, in my opinion, are of the owners making. We are being held back by that complete lack of vision and ambition. They have done a good job in stabilising our finances and have improved many aspects off field. They have failed to improve our fortunes on the pitch are are being left behind, by many of the clubs we got promoted with and use to see as our equals. Time to hand over the reins and receive the thanks they deserve. 

Advertise the sale, be proactive in looking for owners with a more realistic premiership budget and let's see if there are people interested. 

[Kenny Foggo 1,116]

The ownership is doing exactly what Chase did to keep hold of the club. Selling to stand still. They have achieved more off pitch where Chase achieved more on the pitch.

Edited January 3, 2022 by Kenny Foggo

[Christoph Stiepermann 1,135]

I don't trust Webber to spend the money to be honest even if we had any. He doesn't understand what it takes to build a PL team, we'd just bring in a few more small, slow players who don't have a competitive edge or any self confidence and who can only play when the opposition lets them.

I read that article on the Pink Un a couple of weeks ago about the striker we pushed to sign before, Marvin Ducksch, who said he turned us down because he was scared of the intensity of the PL and how rough it is, that just about sums it up for me, we target the wrong type of players with the wrong mindset.

 

[BurwellCanary 216]

52 minutes ago, Kenny Foggo said:

The constraints, in my opinion, are of the owners making. We are being held back by that complete lack of vision and ambition. They have done a good job in stabilising our finances and have improved many aspects off field. They have failed to improve our fortunes on the pitch are are being left behind, by many of the clubs we got promoted with and use to see as our equals. Time to hand over the reins and receive the thanks they deserve. 

Advertise the sale, be proactive in looking for owners with a more realistic premiership budget and let's see if there are people interested. 

We are being held back by that complete lack of vision and ambition. They have done a good job in stabilising our finances and have improved many aspects off field.

Perhaps that is the limit of their ambition rather than lack of it due to the 'self funding model' mantra -  they they have done a good job in off field and finance improvements and perhaps to the Board that is their measure of sucess. We wil never compete in the PL without huge investment or a whole bunch of talent coming through who could play at that level. Not sure either is realistic

[Kenny Foggo 1,116]

11 minutes ago, BurwellCanary said:

We are being held back by that complete lack of vision and ambition. They have done a good job in stabilising our finances and have improved many aspects off field.

Perhaps that is the limit of their ambition rather than lack of it due to the 'self funding model' mantra -  they they have done a good job in off field and finance improvements and perhaps to the Board that is their measure of sucess. We wil never compete in the PL without huge investment or a whole bunch of talent coming through who could play at that level. Not sure either is realistic

It is in other clubs of similar size and fan base. Be nice to actual try.

[wcorkcanary 4,334]

24 minutes ago, BurwellCanary said:

We are being held back by that complete lack of vision and ambition. They have done a good job in stabilising our finances and have improved many aspects off field.

Perhaps that is the limit of their ambition rather than lack of it due to the 'self funding model' mantra -  they they have done a good job in off field and finance improvements and perhaps to the Board that is their measure of sucess. We wil never compete in the PL without huge investment or a whole bunch of talent coming through who could play at that level. Not sure either is realistic

Yep, sums it up for me.  We is what we is...and that's all it is.  I am unable to  dislike  Delia  and Michael for their lack of spare cash.  The ideal  owners would  ve similar in style but able to inject the 200M initially  and then top up funds which would be needed to hopefully establish  us as a prem side  . We would then need further investment  to reach the ever raising bar of ambition . It never ends. 

 

[Newtopia 517]

4 hours ago, Dean Coneys boots said:

That will need a wholesale clear out of the average championship players and a retention of the decent premiership quality players. Being self funding the polar opposite will occur - we will sell Aarons and buy a worse player. It’s a rinse and repeat of summer 

If we buy two not so good (compared to Aarons) players and just stop losing by more than 2 I would see that as progress.

[Jersey Canary 143]

Until a billionaire saviour comes to our rescue we have to stick to the model. Buy maturing young players and sell them on in 2 years time for a healthy profit. As someone said before and I’ve said too, we’ll need to lose out on a few to find our Godfrey, our Buendia. Providing over a 3 year period we are too 26 in the country then great.

One day the team will click in the PL and we’ll stay up but until then enjoy the ride. 

[Jim Smith 2,317]

9 minutes ago, Jersey Canary said:

Until a billionaire saviour comes to our rescue we have to stick to the model. Buy maturing young players and sell them on in 2 years time for a healthy profit. As someone said before and I’ve said too, we’ll need to lose out on a few to find our Godfrey, our Buendia. Providing over a 3 year period we are too 26 in the country then great.

One day the team will click in the PL and we’ll stay up but until then enjoy the ride. 

There isn’t really anything to enjoy about “the ride” at the moment.