Can we stay up?

[Chelm Canary 404]

For me we have a chance now. 

Some very talented footballers. Clever touches and some blistering and incisive phases of play going forward.  

The defense has improved. 

We are competitive again and I reckon there are a lot of clubs that won't see playing us a nailed on 3 points now and I don't care if they do.

I don't think this team had been used properly in this league but now it has  you can see the quality that exists. I think wolves thought we would roll over and there was some shell shock when they realised we can play.

A lot to come to come. Otbc. 

We  can do this now. 

 

 

 

 

[cambridgeshire canary 6,674]

Maybe. I feel far more confident with Smith in charge that we can stay up than I did with Farke but we are still favorites for the drop.. Rather see were we are in a month or two then I will make my mind up. Beat Newcastle however and I do feel we might get some very good mommentum going..

[Indy 3,283]

Well of course we can, but realistically we need a lot of hard work and luck.

Newcastle will no doubt buy themselves out of trouble in January, that’s going to leave probably five teams in the mix. But who knows beat Newcastle and draw with Spurs and we could be out of the bottom 3!

Edited November 28, 2021 by Indy

[Ward 3 371]

The run upto Christmas will define our season.

Id say yes we will stay up. We have looked a lot better all round the pitch

[yellowandgreen 34]

I think we might just be too far behind but at least now we look like we can compete. Tuesday night could be a turning point. If we win I will really start to believe we can do it.

[Branston Pickle 3,632]

With only a third of the season gone, there’s far too much time to go to be writing anyone off.  The idea that we’re ‘too far behind’ is odd, given that a win midweek would see us level on points with the side that’s currently 4th bottom.

Edited November 28, 2021 by Branston Pickle

[VillaFan 118]

Villa Fan in Peace...

I think the the thing about staying up or not, is not so much about if u are good enough (every club is good enough to stay up) but it is more about what 3 teams are 'bad' enough to finish below Norwich. The 3 that will go down this season will be from Norwich, Newcastle, Burnley, Leeds, Watford and Southampton and Brentford. Saints and Leeds have decent teams and good managers and will probably stay up. Burnley have a good manager who is an expert at relegation fights and they will probably stay up. That leaves 4 teams and 3 relegation spots: Norwich, Newcastle, Watford and Brentford. Watford and Brentford are doing quite well and will pick up points. You guys need to finish above both of these which will be tough. Newcastle are down imo. It will be near impossible to attract the right type of player in the Jan window as the look like they will be rooted to the bottom come Jan. So, that means I think 2 of Norwich, Brentford and Watford will be relegated along with Newcastle. Its a tough ask. but Deano is up for it

Edited November 28, 2021 by VillaFan
Fixed a typo

[CowboyCanary 37]

We are favored to be relegated, but I am encouraged by recent performances.

[HazzaJet 252]

1 hour ago, Indy said:

Well of course we can, but realistically we need a lot of hard work and luck.

Newcastle will no doubt buy themselves out of trouble in January, that’s going to leave probably five teams in the mix. But who knows best Newcastle and draw with Spurs and we could be out of the bottom 3!

Buy themselves out of trouble? Yes they have the money, but how many top players are going to want to be involved in a relegation battle this season when they can earn high wages at clubs like Man City and Chelsea, and can also be pretty confident of also qualifying for the Champions League next season?

I'm not very convinced they will be able to strengthen their team much in January if they look likely to be involved in a relegation battle, but if they survive I think they will be able to quite a bit next summer. However, I think they need to at least qualify for the Europa League before they will be able to sign world class players

I do believe we can stay up, but to do so I think we have to keep our current performance under Smith on for the rest of the season, rely on teams at the top of the table to do us favours against our relegation rivals, and cannot afford to slip up at any point

Edited November 28, 2021 by HazzaJet

[Danke bitte 965]

44 minutes ago, Branston Pickle said:

With only a third of the season gone, there’s far too much time to go to be writing anyone off.  The idea that we’re ‘too far behind’ is odd, given that a win midweek would see us level on points with the side that’s currently 4th bottom.

Tuesday has a big ‘Along Come Norwich’ written all over it. It would be nice to win but it’s the hope that kills 😁

[Branston Pickle 3,632]

24 minutes ago, Danke bitte said:

Tuesday has a big ‘Along Come Norwich’ written all over it. It would be nice to win but it’s the hope that kills 😁

It does have that feeling - is Howe’s first home game (that he can go to), too.

[Indy 3,283]

29 minutes ago, HazzaJet said:

Buy themselves out of trouble? Yes they have the money, but how many top players are going to want to be involved in a relegation battle this season when they can earn high wages at clubs like Man City and Chelsea, and can also be pretty confident of also qualifying for the Champions League next season?

I'm not very convinced they will be able to strengthen their team much in January if they look likely to be involved in a relegation battle, but if they survive I think they will be able to quite a bit next summer. However, I think they need to at least qualify for the Europa League before they will be able to sign world class players

Nah, even if they don’t get 1st choice they’re going to buy enough quality to get out of trouble. I hope you’re right I’d love to see them down but just can’t see it!

[Branston Pickle 3,632]

1 minute ago, Indy said:

Nah, even if they don’t get 1st choice they’re going to buy enough quality to get out of trouble. I hope you’re right I’d love to see them down but just can’t see it!

I did see something a few days ago saying they wanted Mbappe - I think it unlikely that he’d go there, given the clubs who’d be interested, but it does rather show the finances they suddenly have.  

[Indy 3,283]

10 minutes ago, Branston Pickle said:

I did see something a few days ago saying they wanted Mbappe - I think it unlikely that he’d go there, given the clubs who’d be interested, but it does rather show the finances they suddenly have.  

I agree, they’d have to sign three or four really big names together and sell each of them the club to get that level of player. But I’ve also read that Coutinho and other’s of that level who aren’t making their current teams might well be bought in. I don’t think they need a huge amount more to get them up the table. Teams like palace & Everton who should have the quality but don’t appear to have the spirit at present might be dragged into the battle though.

Edited November 28, 2021 by Indy

[AJ 1,218]

We're in the mix, that's for sure. Just frustrating we didn't pick up anything in those first 10 games as even a point or two would see us in a much better position but at least we're looking like we can compete now

[Hackney Canary 97]

I’m reminded of that bit in The English Patient, when Almasy and Katherine Clifton get caught up in a sandstorm in the desert. They manage to barricade themselves into a jeep and she says to him, ‘Will we be all right?’ 
   ‘Yes,’ he says. Then he pauses, then says, ‘Yes, absolutely.’

   ‘Yes is a comfort,’ she says, ‘but absolutely is not.’

All of which is a very long way of saying, ‘Yes, of course we can stay up, but if we do it will be because we haven’t allowed ourselves to get cocky. If we survive, it will be because we have fought until the last minute of the last game of the season. It will be a monumental effort and will require us to have more than a couple of games of new manager bounce.
 

For what it’s worth, at this point in time I believe we can do it. The new signings are really starting to find their feet, and the defence is looking solid. Under Deano, we’re more aggressive with and without the ball, and are looking capable of causing most teams some problems. My only major worry is whether we will be able to score enough goals - and that is quite a big question mark. 

However, if we’re looking for an omen, Almasy and Katherine Clifton survived the sandstorm. 

[Petriix 2,834]

Ultimately it's about picking up the points. We're simply not scoring the goals required to win the games needed to stay up. So far.

Tuesday is massive in terms of our overall position. Win and we're almost back on track. Lose and we're bottom again. But it's more about getting to the magic number of 10 wins.

We have 12 games left against current bottom half teams, 6 home and 6 away. If we win half of them, we'll have to pick up at least another 2 wins from top half sides.

It's a monumental task. Not impossible but unlikely. Those missed chances really come back to bite. We've got to start taking them soon, otherwise we'll be cut adrift before long. 

[Beefy is a legend 224]

Newcastle are in desperate trouble for me. They have to win at least 9 matches from here. By the time they get to January and sign and bed in players there will only be 16 or 17 games left. You can write off 4 or 5 of those given they are playing the top sides. It is a huge ask for them to stay up from here. They do have NCFC and Burnley I think in the next two games so they are absolutely crucial fixtures to give themselves any chance. They certainly need a couple of wins before they are able to bring in some recruits.

As for NCFC, we are still favourites to go down. We still have one of the three weakest squads in this league. We aren't miles off the likes of Leeds and Southampton though and so if we have some luck and good management, then we have a hope. We showed a dramatic improvement against Wolves in terms of defensive shape and that does bode very well. Having said that we didn't look hugely creative, we were fairly reliant on Rashica to make something happen. 

If we don't beat Newcastle on Tuesday, which is not particularly likely, then with Spurs and Man Utd to follow we could easily be 6 or 7 points adrift of 17th again by the time we play Aston Villa. We are going to need to pull out a big win somewhere. Newcastle is an opportunity but it's also a game we could just as easily lose - we don't have anyone with the class of a Saint-Maximin in our squad. 

I also worry that if injuries do hit then we have some big problems in certain areas. An injury to Pukki and a long-term injury to Normann will hurt us. We have had almost our whole squad fit for this season and that may well not remain the case.

So realistically it's still a huge ask but 7 points from 3 games has put us in the mix. And personally, that's what I expected from us this year. Not necessarily to stay up comfortably, but to at least be in the fight to stay up and not a mile away from 17th. Over the last few weeks we've shown that we are in the fight.

 

 

[foxchrys 20]

Put a bet on you guys staying up now you got Deane at the helm.

Bookmakers are so tight these days, you guys staying up is one of the few with odds that are interesting. 🙂

[BroadstairsR 2,138]

The half-way point in the season, when all teams will have played each other once, and which begins on New Year's Day will be the first real indicator of just exactly where everybody is.

Our tough start of having already come up against Liverpool, Man. City and Chelsea, whilst others have yet to have the full package will tell in our favour.

This particularly applies as we suddenly seem to have become far more competitive against the rest. This indicates that, at last, we might steadily pick up points (two blanks in seven games now (inc. Chelsea?)

We are firmly into fine margins territory, eg. Leeds.

Villa fan. I appreciate your concern, but I would not yet rule your team completely out of the mix. A bit of new manager bounce doesn't a season make. Who of the big boys have you yet to face before Xmas?    

Edited November 29, 2021 by BroadstairsR

[smooth 114]

A win tomorrow is huge, Newcastle may have a bounce at some point but can we go in to a big stadium with a vocal crowd and make them turn on their team with an early goal?

We can stay up, the bottom half is congested and injuries, bad form can all happen to others. But shock results can also happen and we need to take care of business. It does feel we had the chances to beat wolves and we didn't take them. We have to take them. So a big game Tuesday and then let's get more fight, be greedy and be more decisive. It can happen but we need to win that relegation league and we need to become clinical, if we don't we will have missed opportunities like the wolves game.

[Christoph Stiepermann 1,131]

I feel confident that we'll get between 30 and 36ish points, but once again our rivals seem strong this year. If Newcastle fail to beat us they're down, then I think we'll be battling it out with :

an experienced Burnley team who always get out of trouble

a buoyed and confident Brentford who seem to get all the luck

a Leeds side that even though they are underperforming now still keep picking up points and have Raphinia who can get them goals and points from nothing

I think the bottom 5 will look roughly like this and we'll all be cursing the fact we wasted so many winnable games at the start of the season

 

16th Leeds 40 

17th Burnley 37

18th Norwich 35

19th Brentford 34

20th Newcastle 30

[littleyellowbirdie 2,507]

I genuinely think we're going to survive now; the defensive transformation in solidity is striking and we'll soon present more of a goal threat because of that. 

[Nora's Ghost 157]

I heard a brief "Staying up, staying down" chant on Saturday.

 

Would be nice to hear that one again with different words.

[JackRussel 0]

14 hours ago, Chelm Canary said:

For me we have a chance now. 

Some very talented footballers. Clever touches and some blistering and incisive phases of play going forward.  

The defense has improved. 

We are competitive again and I reckon there are a lot of clubs that won't see playing us a nailed on 3 points now and I don't care if they do.

I don't think this team had been used properly in this league but now it has  you can see the quality that exists. I think wolves thought we would roll over and there was some shell shock when they realised we can play.

A lot to come to come. Otbc. 

We  can do this now.

There is wisdom in your words, for there is hope. Yes, the defense has improved, but there is still much work to be done. And it's never clear what the next game will be, but it's good manners to give it our all in every game.

Edited November 29, 2021 by JackRussel

[VillaFan 118]

6 hours ago, BroadstairsR said:

Villa fan. I appreciate your concern, but I would not yet rule your team completely out of the mix. A bit of new manager bounce doesn't a season make. Who of the big boys have you yet to face before Xmas?    

Man City, Leicester and Liverpool in the next 3 games, so a very though run of games. City and Liverpool I am putting down as losses and we should be able to get something from Leicester but we could lose all 3. Trying to think with my head and not my heart, but I really can't see us going down this season. The squad is too good for relegation I believe and we have the all important ingredient in that we have a couple of strikers that score goals and our midfielders will also pop up with a few goals. I am not expecting an amazing season under Gerrard but I can't see us finishing lower than 17th. I expect we will finish above at least Newcastle, Burnley and NCFC and it wouldn't surprise me to add Leeds, Burnley, Southampton and Brentford to that list too. 

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

I still think we will probably go down. But the signs are that we won't go down without a better stab at it now. Its not impossible but the lack of goals is still worrying. If we concede first then I still fear we will find it hard to score two often enough. And I don't see enough on the bench in goal scoring either.

Looking forward to Tuesday. Apart for St Maximan, I think we are better than them and if we go there to win and not defend, then realistically we can win. And another win might just start a proper revival in fortunes.

[VillaFan 118]

Just now, keelansgrandad said:

Looking forward to Tuesday. Apart for St Maximan, I think we are better than them and if we go there to win and not defend, then realistically we can win. And another win might just start a proper revival in fortunes.

In 3 years of watching Villa under Dean Smith, I don't believe I have ever seen a Villa team he has put out not go to try and win the game. That doesn't matter whether it is away to City or Liverpool or home to Burnley or Southampton. You guys will definitely go to try and win the game on Tuesday

[Robert N. LiM 4,237]

13 hours ago, Petriix said:

Ultimately it's about picking up the points. We're simply not scoring the goals required to win the games needed to stay up. So far.

Tuesday is massive in terms of our overall position. Win and we're almost back on track. Lose and we're bottom again. But it's more about getting to the magic number of 10 wins.

We have 12 games left against current bottom half teams, 6 home and 6 away. If we win half of them, we'll have to pick up at least another 2 wins from top half sides.

It's a monumental task. Not impossible but unlikely. Those missed chances really come back to bite. We've got to start taking them soon, otherwise we'll be cut adrift before long. 

Excellent summary. The defeats to Watford and Leeds have put us behind the game, especially when you then add in only getting two points from three home games vs Leicester, Brighton and Wolves. As @Petriixsays, we're going to need a couple of eye-catching results as well as wins over our immediate rivals.

In normal circumstances a draw tomorrow at SJP would be a really good result, but you do have to see it as one of our best opportunities to get one of those eight wins you talk about.

On goals, I saw a remarkable thing on Twitter a while back that said essentially every goal you score gains you a point, as simple as that. Can we get our average up to a goal a game? I have to say I doubt it: that's certainly going to be the biggest challenge for Smithy and the Bard. 

Enough negativity. Three weeks ago this thread title would just have provoked laughter. At least we are back in the conversation.

[It's Character Forming 1,160]

I'm hopeful and I definitely agree that we're back in with a chance which is a massive improvement.

 

But, to stay up, we'll need to win games when we're on top (like Saturday) avoid giving stupid goals away, manage games to stay in control when we have the lead, and also be able to get points out of games where we don't really deserve it.  Some way to go yet on all counts !