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BurwellCanary

Mid season points target

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Come 2nd Jan we are half way through the season and have the next 8 fixtures:

h Wolves
a Newcastle 
a Spurs 
h Man u
h Villa
a West Ham 
h Arsenal 
a Leicester

If we consider that the 40 points is seen as the min to stay up (although a few less than this may do it) where do we realistically see 12 points from these games to get us to 20 at the mid-point (of course we all want to see 24 but realistically)

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I think we can get to 16/18 area but it’s going to take everything. I honestly think if we grit our teeth we can actually escape the drop but it’s going to take absolutely everything. Other teams are on trouble and will have no mercy against us and we should have no mercy as well.

You can’t stay in this league by being nice, about time people woke up to that.

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I've always thought that we would do better in the second half of the season than the first as new players become integrated etc. So anything that keeps us "in touch" at the half-way point would be acceptable - say 16 points? That's 8 points from 8 games.  

Obviously like everyone else, I 'd prefer 20+ at the half way stage but I think that we have a realistic chance with fewer than this.

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I also see un on 16-18 points. However, I also see us gaining a bit of momentum in the new year if we can build on the new start.

I'd rather go to CR expecting a good performance such as yesterdays second half rather than hoping to not be too far adrift come 80 minutes.

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19 minutes ago, BurwellCanary said:

Come 2nd Jan we are half way through the season and have the next 8 fixtures:

h Wolves
a Newcastle 
a Spurs 
h Man u
h Villa
a West Ham 
h Arsenal 
a Leicester

If we consider that the 40 points is seen as the min to stay up (although a few less than this may do it) where do we realistically see 12 points from these games to get us to 20 at the mid-point (of course we all want to see 24 but realistically)

So points is most likely a win and two draws. 
Looking at home games:

- Wolves are playing really well, draw possible

- Manure with a new manager, along come Norwich, no points

- Villa - home win

- Arsenal - draw. 
 

For away games, let’s throw in a draw at Newcastle and possibly Spurs or Leicester and that’s 7 points

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17 minutes ago, BurwellCanary said:

Come 2nd Jan we are half way through the season and have the next 8 fixtures:

h Wolves
a Newcastle 
a Spurs 
h Man u
h Villa
a West Ham 
h Arsenal 
a Leicester

If we consider that the 40 points is seen as the min to stay up (although a few less than this may do it) where do we realistically see 12 points from these games to get us to 20 at the mid-point (of course we all want to see 24 but realistically)

You've missed C. Palace away before Leicester. By 2nd Jan, we would have completed 21 out of 38 games. By that stage, we would have played both Arsenal and Leicester twice. Be good to be averaging around a point a game by then, if poss.

 

3 minutes ago, Robert N. LiM said:

No way in the world are we going to need 40 points to stay up. Just as well.

As things stand, it may not be much less, though. If you're in the bottom 3, you have got to get a better points tally than 17th place, so that they replace you in the bottom 3 (obviously! and assuming GD is cr@p). Currently, the top 17 are all averaging 1+ point a game. I don't think 34 points (Ward 3), at the end of this season, will get you above 18th. I would guess  high 30s will be needed for a team currently in the bottom 3 to escape.

Maybe Leeds or another will struggle (along with the 2 other current bottom 3 teams), and points for 17th will be lower. It's just that the bottom half just seem to be doing quite well points wise.  Sure last season, Sheff. U, WBA and Fulham only achieved 23, 26, 28 points respectively. For any of those to escape, though,  they would have had to pull 17th place  Burnley into the bottom 3. Burnley ended with 39! 

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Slightly incorrect Burwell.

Nineteen games is the half-way point of the season when we should have played each side just the once.

The fact that we will have fitted in the Gunners twice seems to be because of the Xmas fixtures, when we always seem to play at Crystal Palace.

I'm nit-picking here, but for a reason, and connected with the above thread about current form. We have had the full package of dread once (Man. C., Chelsea and Liverpool,) whilst none of our rivals have.

The up-coming run is more benign, should reveal our true Premier League credentials, is kinder for Dean Smith than Farke's start and, with new manager bounce/impetus, could well see us back in the running.

I feel that we are up for competing all of a sudden, whereas before we were inclined to be viewed as the easiest of pickings.

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13 minutes ago, BroadstairsR said:

Slightly incorrect Burwell.

Nineteen games is the half-way point of the season when we should have played each side just the once.

The fact that we will have fitted in the Gunners twice seems to be because of the Xmas fixtures, when we always seem to play at Crystal Palace.

I'm nit-picking here, but for a reason, and connected with the above thread about current form. We have had the full package of dread once (Man. C., Chelsea and Liverpool,) whilst none of our rivals have.

The up-coming run is more benign, should reveal our true Premier League credentials, is kinder for Dean Smith than Farke's start and, with new manager bounce/impetus, could well see us back in the running.

I feel that we are up for competing all of a sudden, whereas before we were inclined to be viewed as the easiest of pickings.

I stand corrected

Absolutely right about the big three though

 

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I think I'm right in saying that 36 pts has been enough to keep you up since 2015/16 and I can't see it being different this year. My only concern is if Newcastle go on a binge in Jan and so pull themselves out of the battle at the bottom. Im not saying that will work or that they will be able to get the right players to do that but it's possible. 

Given that, I'd take 18 pts at the half way mark. We should be in with a fighting chance if we have that. We need points from the next two though, that's for sure.

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I also think that 36 points will be enough but it also depends on how the teams around us do. Brentford started with a lot of adrenalin from their first promotion and then a first day win over Arsenal when the gunners were in a mess. Ten days ago they were 10 points ahead of us and now it's down to 5 points. They've taken 1 point from the last 5 games whereas we've taken 7 from our last five and 6 from the last 2 games. Momentum is worth a lot and we need to continue our unbeaten run as long as we can. If we can get up to 16-18 points by 19 games we should have a reasonable chance of survival.

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I'm actually more optimistic.

IF we can get to 16/18 points by early January then I think we will survive.

We'll have some momentum and belief. Others will always also fall by the wayside and be dragged into the fight.

Less than 16 points and I fear it will be too tall a mountain to climb but not impossible.

 

Edited by Yellow Fever

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39 minutes ago, 1902 said:

My only concern is if Newcastle go on a binge in Jan and so pull themselves out of the battle at the bottom. Im not saying that will work or that they will be able to get the right players to do that but it's possible. 

It would be nice if they stay at the bottom, but I suspect they're a red herring. I think we should be aiming to overhaul Brentford and Watford (yes, I know they had an eye-catching result yesterday). If we can do that hopefully they'll be one other club that we also find ourselves above. It's going to be tough. But I do think we've got a chance, whereas a few weeks ago all the talk was of us beating Derby's record...

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We will need just shy of a point per game ("ppg") to survive.  So by Jan 2nd, we really have to at least be within 3 points of ppg at that stage so, 18 points at least.  That's 10 points during this run (3 wins and a draw or 2 wins and 4 draws - eminently achievable in my view based on yesterday's 2nd half). 

I'd hope we could do better, but trying to be realistic so 4 or more wins during this run and things would start to look very comfortable. 

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Blimey, it's never easy is it.

We simply must beat Wolves and hope for one other surprise win (maybe Villa) and pick up a couple of draws somewhere.

Edited by Wings of a Sparrow

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12 minutes ago, Wings of a Sparrow said:

Blimey, it's never easy is it.

We simply must beat Wolves and hope for one other surprise win (maybe Villa) and pick up a couple of draws somewhere.

Beating 6th place Wolves is a bigger task than beating Villa IMO.

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1/4 for the drop from 1/7 pre Brentford. A couple more decent results will see us trading at pre Liverpool odds. Just under 3/1 to stay up looks generous at the minute. 

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8 points from those 8 games would be a good return in my opinion. Was pretty vital we won today to give us a fighting chance.

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Leeds U.  have just lost again and, if we had achieved a deserved draw against them then we would be on equal terms in the league. Fine margins and in that case a silly Kabak moment.

They look as if they could go the way of the Blades and succumb the second time around after a good showing the first time. 

Two wins, and we are surely in with a shout. It's a dog-fight down there and as long as we remain in "fine margins" territory we stand a chance. 

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