2 Promotions, and 1 Relegation

[TeemuVanBasten 3,327]

Under 'Norwich City' on Daniel Farke's Norwich City CV.

Some of those who have thrown their toys out of the pram might want to consider that it was the kindest thing to do, for his legacy, if he took us down and a Buendia-less Norwich City found ourselves outside of the top 6 come November next season that would have inflicted some serious damage on his legacy.

It isn't quite two world wars and one world cup, but if we manage to stay up this season then Farke's legacy suddenly looks a bit like Nigel Pearson's pre-Ranieri, and he takes a bit of credit for building the foundations of our long spell in the Premier League.

For his legacy, getting sacked this early in the season might just be the best thing that could have happened to him.

 

Edited November 18, 2021 by TeemuVanBasten

[Google Bot 3,256]

Kept the unbeaten run intact vs Ipswich too. 🙂

[wcorkcanary 4,329]

3 hours ago, TeemuVanBasten said:

Under 'Norwich City' on Daniel Farke's Norwich City CV.

Some of those who have thrown their toys out of the pram might want to consider that it was the kindest thing to do, for his legacy, if he took us down and a Buendia-less Norwich City found ourselves outside of the top 6 come November next season that would have inflicted some serious damage on his legacy.

It isn't quite two world wars and one world cup, but if we manage to stay up this season then Farke's legacy suddenly looks a bit like Nigel Pearson's pre-Ranieri, and he takes a bit of credit for building the foundations of our long spell in the Premier League.

For his legacy, getting sacked this early in the season might just be the best thing that could have happened to him.

 

Sorry TuB, you're  out.... repetition of the word 'legacy'. 

Edited November 18, 2021 by wcorkcanary

[Robert N. LiM 4,239]

Yeah, totally agree with this. It's perfectly possible for someone to have been a great manager/coach for a club, and also for it to be time for them to move on. I was sad to see Daniel go, but not half as sad as I would have been to see things turn seriously toxic at Carrow road, either in the next few weeks, or after a poor run at the start of a Championship season.

I was also a bit surprised by the number of people who suggested we should keep him on regardless of how bad things got in the Prem, because of his record of two Championship wins. The idea he could just repeat that after a full season of getting walloped in the Prem seems to underestimate (a) what a staggering achievement those two seasons were and (b) how tough a league the Championship is, especially when there are fans in away grounds. 

It was time for him to go. You could argue it was in fact a little late. But I strongly believe it was best for everyone that we made the change, not least Daniel himself. I do wonder whether he's sitting at home with a coffee and a cake, slightly relieved it's all over and looking forward to his next challenge. I hope so.

Edited November 18, 2021 by Robert N. LiM

[TIL 1010 4,718]

You know who will be along shortly. 😜

 

[Petriix 2,834]

7 hours ago, TeemuVanBasten said:

...if he took us down and a Buendia-less Norwich City found ourselves outside of the top 6 come November next season...

I'd say it's extremely wishful thinking to assume that we'll find ourselves anywhere other than a little below the top six in the Championship in a year's time. I hope that we're not, but I wouldn't bet against the possibility.

We've seen too much change and too little belief. All continuity is gone and we're starting a fresh. We've been punching so far above our weight for so long by being something much bigger than the sum of our parts - a cohesive unit, all on the same page, working with and for each other - that people have become deluded about our realistic position in the pecking order. 

It would take something staggeringly special for Dean Smith to get the same (or more) from this disjointed squad. Keeping us up would be a miracle. Getting things back on track after relegation would be a massive achievement.

I'd love to be wrong, and I'll be supporting the team as much as ever, but it seems to me that the club is in crisis after blowing our biggest ever transfer budget on some seriously average (or below) players.

Not that Farke would have been likely to do any better. He lost his nerve and abandoned his philosophy, which was all he really had. Just don't assume a change of manager will undo the damage. 

[TeemuVanBasten 3,327]

4 hours ago, Robert N. LiM said:

I do wonder whether he's sitting at home with a coffee and a cake, slightly relieved it's all over and looking forward to his next challenge. I hope so.

You would at least hope that he's just enjoying the fact that he'll be having a nice Christmas at home in Germany for the first time in 4 years, with a wedge of cash sufficient to ensure that he can wait for the right opportunity rather than desperately sling CVs all over the place. He'll be alright.

[Icecream Snow 761]

33 minutes ago, Petriix said:

I'd say it's extremely wishful thinking to assume that we'll find ourselves anywhere other than a little below the top six in the Championship in a year's time. I hope that we're not, but I wouldn't bet against the possibility.

We've seen too much change and too little belief. All continuity is gone and we're starting a fresh. We've been punching so far above our weight for so long by being something much bigger than the sum of our parts - a cohesive unit, all on the same page, working with and for each other - that people have become deluded about our realistic position in the pecking order. 

Assuming we go down it certainly would be a big rebuilding exercise, dependent on how big the budget was and the quality of players we could attract.

Normann, Kazak, Williams and Gilmour return to their parent clubs, I can't see the likes of Rashica, Giannoulis and Tzolis wanting to play in the Championship, and Cantwell, Aarons (and maybe Krul) would arguably feel they'd outgrown the club. I see Rupp leaving at the end of the season, and Hernandez and Zimmerman's deals expire in 2023. So definitely lacking a core nucleus of players to build a team around. 

[Robert N. LiM 4,239]

48 minutes ago, Petriix said:

I'd love to be wrong, and I'll be supporting the team as much as ever, but it seems to me that the club is in crisis after blowing our biggest ever transfer budget on some seriously average (or below) players.

Really good post and a welcome reality check. I don't think the situation is quite as desperate as you seem to, but I do agree that anyone expecting Dean Smith to solve everything is going to be disappointed.

The word 'crisis' is interesting. Its original meaning is 'judgment' and I think that's exactly what we're facing: judgment time. Where does the problem lie: with the coach we've just replaced, the summer recruitment, or the 'model'? I suspect the truth is a combination of all three, that Smith will get more out of these players, that it probably won't be quite enough because the squad's not good enough*, but that we couldn't really have expected to have bought much better in the summer given the resources at our disposal.

*It's interesting that both Dean Smith and Webber are adamant the squad is good enough. Obviously there's an element of Mandy Rice Davies here, but do we really think Smith would have taken the job if he thought we were already doomed? That's the straw I'm clutching.

 

[Petriix 2,834]

44 minutes ago, Robert N. LiM said:

Really good post and a welcome reality check. I don't think the situation is quite as desperate as you seem to, but I do agree that anyone expecting Dean Smith to solve everything is going to be disappointed.

The word 'crisis' is interesting. Its original meaning is 'judgment' and I think that's exactly what we're facing: judgment time. Where does the problem lie: with the coach we've just replaced, the summer recruitment, or the 'model'? I suspect the truth is a combination of all three, that Smith will get more out of these players, that it probably won't be quite enough because the squad's not good enough*, but that we couldn't really have expected to have bought much better in the summer given the resources at our disposal.

*It's interesting that both Dean Smith and Webber are adamant the squad is good enough. Obviously there's an element of Mandy Rice Davies here, but do we really think Smith would have taken the job if he thought we were already doomed? That's the straw I'm clutching.

 

I'd say the decision to sack Farke very much suggests that Webber believes we can stay up. I think he's being optimistic. Realistically we've already lost too many of the target games that needed winning to make survival possible. I'd be exceptionally happy to be proven wrong and there are som viable (but unlikely) scenarios where I might be.

I'm not certain Dean Smith needs to believe we'll stay up. He obviously needs to say it, but he's in a win-win situation. If we go down, no one will blame him.

Regarding the summer recruitment: the simple answer is yes, we could have expected to have a better first team than we do. Sargent, Rashica and Tzolis cost close to the Buendia money combined and have contributed zero goals and zero assists in the league. If we'd have signed one single £20m player with appropriate wages then we'd have been way better off.

We completely failed to replace Skipp. Another £15m on a dedicated defensive midfielder would have given us a solid core to build on. PLM is no upgrade on Rupp or McLean.

Maybe thing will start to click. There's bags of potential in the squad. We just don't have the luxury of being able to wait any longer for it to start working.

[Yobocop 1,095]

13 hours ago, TeemuVanBasten said:

Under 'Norwich City' on Daniel Farke's Norwich City CV.

Some of those who have thrown their toys out of the pram might want to consider that it was the kindest thing to do, for his legacy, if he took us down and a Buendia-less Norwich City found ourselves outside of the top 6 come November next season that would have inflicted some serious damage on his legacy.

It isn't quite two world wars and one world cup, but if we manage to stay up this season then Farke's legacy suddenly looks a bit like Nigel Pearson's pre-Ranieri, and he takes a bit of credit for building the foundations of our long spell in the Premier League.

For his legacy, getting sacked this early in the season might just be the best thing that could have happened to him.

 

You say beundia less but IF we were to be relegated Rashica and Tzolis would tear the league up 

It would be frightening 

[TeemuVanBasten 3,327]

5 hours ago, Yobocop said:

You say beundia less but IF we were to be relegated Rashica and Tzolis would tear the league up 

It would be frightening 

Would they though? 

Probably said that about Ashton, Huckerby and McKenzie, but then we ended up in 10th half way through the season and Ashton bailed. 

Think Sheffield United expected to be 17th which their squad? 

Can't take that league for granted... Rashica looks neat and tidy, but 1 assist and 0 goals in 11 games for Norwich, and 0 goals and 0 assists in 7 games for Kosovo is his 2021/22 season so far. 

Plus we have no idea whether any of our players have relegation release clauses, wouldn't surprise me in the slightest if Tzolis did, he is his countries great hope, or who we might otherwise lose in the summer. 

Edited November 19, 2021 by TeemuVanBasten

[Chelm Canary 404]

12 hours ago, Petriix said:

club is in crisis after blowing our biggest ever transfer budget on some seriously average (or below) players

Harsh statement. I don't believe we have seen anything near the potential at this point and Tzolis who has often been described as a Greek wonder kid has barely had a look in. There is definitely more to come from these players. 

And if you're saying they're average players at this level then average is good enough. 

 

[PurpleCanary 5,554]

12 hours ago, Petriix said:

I'd say it's extremely wishful thinking to assume that we'll find ourselves anywhere other than a little below the top six in the Championship in a year's time. I hope that we're not, but I wouldn't bet against the possibility.

We've seen too much change and too little belief. All continuity is gone and we're starting a fresh. We've been punching so far above our weight for so long by being something much bigger than the sum of our parts - a cohesive unit, all on the same page, working with and for each other - that people have become deluded about our realistic position in the pecking order. 

It would take something staggeringly special for Dean Smith to get the same (or more) from this disjointed squad. Keeping us up would be a miracle. Getting things back on track after relegation would be a massive achievement.

I'd love to be wrong, and I'll be supporting the team as much as ever, but it seems to me that the club is in crisis after blowing our biggest ever transfer budget on some seriously average (or below) players.

Not that Farke would have been likely to do any better. He lost his nerve and abandoned his philosophy, which was all he really had. Just don't assume a change of manager will undo the damage. 

This post and your follow-up are overly pessimistic. I assume we will get relegated this season, and I very much doubt your assertion that the appointment of Smith means Webber believes we can stay up. I am sure Webber thinks Smith will give us a better chance than a seemingly totally shot Farke, but the choice is probably as much about promotion next season as anything.

Club in crisis and all continuity gone? Don't see either of those. It seems Smith very much buys into and fits the role Farke played of head coach, with a continuing belief in good football rather than hoofball. Based on comments from several Villa fans, and on statistics, it could be Smith is actually a coach better able to exist in the Premier League than Farke.

If relegated we will probably lose all the loan players, and  one or both of Cantwell and Aarons, and there will be some hard decisions to take. One priority will be to accept that Pukki is not and will not again be, even in the Championship, the player he once was, and find a 20-goal a season striker. Another may focus on Krul.

But we will potentially have Placheta, Rashica and Tzolis as attackers, and Sargent as a striking back up, and Hanley, Gibson and Omobamidele in central defence. Plus young players coming up, such as Mumba, and the likes of McCallum currently out on loan. And despite Gilmour we will still be a club to which EPL managers are willing to loan players.

 

[pete 318]

Players at relegated club want out and avoid the slog of Championship football.  A Relegation is not likely to have increased the likelihood of other clubs requiring your services.  Ask Todd it did wonders for his career and he was arguably our best asset on PL last time.  Championship best league in Europe outside of Spanish, German and Italian top leagues.  Disgruntled players not getting move to any of them.  So Rashica and the rest will be staying and be Championship players our record lately is good and return to PL a good possibility.

French top league not included as apart from PSG and Lyon it is poor, Lees Melou evidence of this.

[Yobocop 1,095]

1 hour ago, TeemuVanBasten said:

Would they though? 

Probably said that about Ashton, Huckerby and McKenzie, but then we ended up in 10th half way through the season and Ashton bailed. 

Think Sheffield United expected to be 17th which their squad? 

Can't take that league for granted... Rashica looks neat and tidy, but 1 assist and 0 goals in 11 games for Norwich, and 0 goals and 0 assists in 7 games for Kosovo is his 2021/22 season so far. 

Plus we have no idea whether any of our players have relegation release clauses, wouldn't surprise me in the slightest if Tzolis did, he is his countries great hope, or who we might otherwise lose in the summer. 

Interesting stats 

definitely can’t take anything for granted but Rashica is better than Buendia so you’d think he would do better in the championship 

How many goals did beundia score for us in our last premier league game? 

[Robert N. LiM 4,239]

11 hours ago, Petriix said:

If we'd have signed one single £20m player with appropriate wages then we'd have been way better off.

I've seen this a lot, but have rarely (never?) seen anyone suggest who this might have been. I have my doubts that a £20 million player with appropriate wages would have come to a club that was signing him and no one else. "Hi, welcome to Norwich, please keep us up."

I'd have thought that to convince that sort of player to come, you'd have to convince them that you're signing a couple of other players of his calibre. I have a suspicion that, at this stage in the club's development, buying extremely promising players at about the £10 million mark is just where we are.

11 hours ago, Petriix said:

We completely failed to replace Skipp. Another £15m on a dedicated defensive midfielder would have given us a solid core to build on

Yes, this is the obvious hole, and from the outside seems completely bizarre. 

But it struck me the other day that we've never really managed to fill that position. I remember Gary Holt looking outstanding in the Championship and out of his depth in the Prem. In more recent seasons we've ended up with Tettey there because whoever we've bought turned out not to be an upgrade. I wonder whether it's a deceptively difficult position to fill. Again, I've not seen anyone suggest who this Skipp replacement should have been. Skipp himself? If, as I suspect, we couldn't have got him for £15 million (someone who'd never played in the Prem) it does suggest that a guaranteed success in that role would have been very expensive.

[Nora's Ghost 157]

If we go down then Dean Smith will be 'the worst Norwich manager ever' and any decent player will want away leaving an expensive, overpaid rabble that nobody will want anywhere near their squad.

 

That's how it is and the only constant that will remain will be Delia Smith and MW Jones..... still clinging on.

[Google Bot 3,256]

6 minutes ago, Nora's Ghost said:

If we go down then Dean Smith will be 'the worst Norwich manager ever' and any decent player will want away leaving an expensive, overpaid rabble that nobody will want anywhere near their squad.

[TeemuVanBasten 3,327]

2 hours ago, Yobocop said:

Interesting stats 

definitely can’t take anything for granted but Rashica is better than Buendia so you’d think he would do better in the championship 

How many goals did beundia score for us in our last premier league game? 

Buendia 1 goal and 7 assists in our last Premier League season.

Rashica 0 goals and 1 assist so far this season.

Not sure why you are focused on the goals, because I was thinking more about Pukki being left isolated with nobody feeding him chances.

[Yobocop 1,095]

7 hours ago, TeemuVanBasten said:

Buendia 1 goal and 7 assists in our last Premier League season.

Rashica 0 goals and 1 assist so far this season.

Not sure why you are focused on the goals, because I was thinking more about Pukki being left isolated with nobody feeding him chances.

Ok, we still have well over half the season left, let’s revisit Rashicas stats in May for a fair comparison 

[Terminally Yellow 2,448]

17 hours ago, Yobocop said:

You say beundia less but IF we were to be relegated Rashica and Tzolis would tear the league up 

It would be frightening 

There's no evidence of this whatsoever. Both have massively underperformed.

[Yobocop 1,095]

Just now, Terminally Yellow said:

There's no evidence of this whatsoever. Both have massively underperformed.

Would disagree Rashica has ‘massively’ underperformed and probably a bit harsh to rate Tzolis at all given his complete lack of playing time 

Both have had to adjust to the English game and Rashica, probably due to his experience has adjusted slightly more than Tzolis has 

there’s more evidence to suggest they could be a success at championship level than not due to the performance v Bournemouth (currently top of the championship) in the carabao cup 

make no mistake, Rashica and Tzolis are both setup to be better players than Buendia 

[Petriix 2,834]

11 hours ago, PurpleCanary said:

This post and your follow-up are overly pessimistic. I assume we will get relegated this season, and I very much doubt your assertion that the appointment of Smith means Webber believes we can stay up. I am sure Webber thinks Smith will give us a better chance than a seemingly totally shot Farke, but the choice is probably as much about promotion next season as anything.

Club in crisis and all continuity gone? Don't see either of those. It seems Smith very much buys into and fits the role Farke played of head coach, with a continuing belief in good football rather than hoofball. Based on comments from several Villa fans, and on statistics, it could be Smith is actually a coach better able to exist in the Premier League than Farke.

If relegated we will probably lose all the loan players, and  one or both of Cantwell and Aarons, and there will be some hard decisions to take. One priority will be to accept that Pukki is not and will not again be, even in the Championship, the player he once was, and find a 20-goal a season striker. Another may focus on Krul.

But we will potentially have Placheta, Rashica and Tzolis as attackers, and Sargent as a striking back up, and Hanley, Gibson and Omobamidele in central defence. Plus young players coming up, such as Mumba, and the likes of McCallum currently out on loan. And despite Gilmour we will still be a club to which EPL managers are willing to loan players.

 

Fair enough. I'm probably just setting my expectations low to avoid disappointment. There are definitely some positives and lots of potential. I just think we've departed radically from the things that set us apart from the rest of the Championship clubs.

10 hours ago, Robert N. LiM said:

I've seen this a lot, but have rarely (never?) seen anyone suggest who this might have been. I have my doubts that a £20 million player with appropriate wages would have come to a club that was signing him and no one else. "Hi, welcome to Norwich, please keep us up."

I'd have thought that to convince that sort of player to come, you'd have to convince them that you're signing a couple of other players of his calibre. I have a suspicion that, at this stage in the club's development, buying extremely promising players at about the £10 million mark is just where we are.

Yes, this is the obvious hole, and from the outside seems completely bizarre. 

But it struck me the other day that we've never really managed to fill that position. I remember Gary Holt looking outstanding in the Championship and out of his depth in the Prem. In more recent seasons we've ended up with Tettey there because whoever we've bought turned out not to be an upgrade. I wonder whether it's a deceptively difficult position to fill. Again, I've not seen anyone suggest who this Skipp replacement should have been. Skipp himself? If, as I suspect, we couldn't have got him for £15 million (someone who'd never played in the Prem) it does suggest that a guaranteed success in that role would have been very expensive.

You're probably right. But that means selling Buendia was a worse idea than it appeared. I was prepared to accept it on the grounds that we could improve the squad by reinvesting the money. If that was impossible then we should never have let him go.

Skipp was pretty hard to replace, but we had to try harder than PLM. 

[Ulfotto 622]

Will always maintain Farke downfall started with the 18/19 promotion. The club was been playing catch up ever since. A far better outcome would be the Leeds one. Losing in the playoffs promotion the following year then a “good” season I.e about 12th in the premiership.

I don’t actually share the fears on relegation the championship is not what it was and as long as parachute payments are not wasted we should be in with a shout. Look at Bournemouth last year 2 no mark manager, top players left and they still got to the playoff final.