Next 9 games ...how many points?

[paddycanary 538]

On 13/09/2021 at 18:46, sonyc said:

These 9 games will take us to a third of the season completed. We will need to be around a point a game in aiming for (around) 40 points.

My take is a follows. Too cautious or too optimistic? 

Watford (h) 3

Everton (a) 0

Burnley (a) 1

Brighton (h) 1

Chelsea (a) 0

Leeds (h) 1

Brentford (a) 3

Southampton (h) 3

Wolves (h) 1

13 points then...after 13 games. 

Interesting run of games here. None easy. But it can be done. 

 

 

Oi Sony! This looks suspiciously like part of my post from page 2! 🤔 Not sure whether to be complimented or outraged at such flagrant plagiarism! 😁

To answer my own question in a roundabout way, it will take quite a significant turnaround in form to get into double figures from this run of fixtures. But if we don't manage to do it, we risk being again sunk into a hole out of which we probably won't be able to crawl out of. If we can't reach double figures in points by the 13 game stage, sadly we know all too well how that tends to end up by season's end.

A point per game is our minimum target. One goal losses (see Leicester & Arsenal) need to be turned into draws, home games must be our main source of points and we really need to be taking points off the likes of Watford, Burnley, Brighton, Leeds, Brentford & Southampton from such a run of games. Shouldn't have anything to fear from Everton or Wolves either. This is a crucial period coming up. If we're cut adrift by Christmas, it could be a long season. I don't think it'll happen though. And we really need at least a point and a good performance this weekend to get something on the board. 

[sonyc 5,508]

41 minutes ago, paddycanary said:

Oi Sony! This looks suspiciously like part of my post from page 2! 🤔 Not sure whether to be complimented or outraged at such flagrant plagiarism! 😁

To answer my own question in a roundabout way, it will take quite a significant turnaround in form to get into double figures from this run of fixtures. But if we don't manage to do it, we risk being again sunk into a hole out of which we probably won't be able to crawl out of. If we can't reach double figures in points by the 13 game stage, sadly we know all too well how that tends to end up by season's end.

A point per game is our minimum target. One goal losses (see Leicester & Arsenal) need to be turned into draws, home games must be our main source of points and we really need to be taking points off the likes of Watford, Burnley, Brighton, Leeds, Brentford & Southampton from such a run of games. Shouldn't have anything to fear from Everton or Wolves either. This is a crucial period coming up. If we're cut adrift by Christmas, it could be a long season. I don't think it'll happen though. And we really need at least a point and a good performance this weekend to get something on the board. 

Just looked again now...I think you should take it as a compliment paddy. I reckon the list of games did stick in this old mind and it started me off thinking what we need to do. You were the catalyst I'm sure.

The thing is, I have always tended to think of the end of November / start of December as a telling marker point for any team....whether aiming for promotion or at the other end. You get outliers every now and then but often a season is mapped out. Incredibly, having checked this out (in many leagues picking different teams) over the years, it bears out.

So...a third way through the season (for the PL) is crucial as you've alluded to. People speak of Christmas but I reckon the die is cast a good while before. If we haven't got say a minimum of 11 points by then I fear for us. 

Watford is so vital. Win and we should get some belief.  🤞🤞

[Declan 24]

9 hours ago, sonyc said:

The thing is, I have always tended to think of the end of November / start of December as a telling marker point for any team....whether aiming for promotion or at the other end. You get outliers every now and then but often a season is mapped out. Incredibly, having checked this out (in many leagues picking different teams) over the years, it bears out.

So...a third way through the season (for the PL) is crucial as you've alluded to. People speak of Christmas but I reckon the die is cast a good while before. If we haven't got say a minimum of 11 points by then I fear for us. 

There was a good article on this on the BBC at the start of the season...

'Overall, 11 or more points to start your campaign gives an 89% chance of staying up, but get less than 11 and the survival rate drops to 31%.'

So, assuming we'd like to get to that watermark those two games against those we came up with are as close to must win as they come (and we've got a terrible recent record against teams that finish around us whether at the top or bottom) which assuming we got would leave us requiring 5pts from Brighton and Leeds at home alongside trips to Everton, Burnley and Chelsea.

My heart says it's got to be a better season than the last effort to stay in the top-flight, but my head keeps bringing me back down to earth!

[Badger 2,405]

16 hours ago, Mr Angry said:

So, we’ve spent more than £50 million, plus loan fees for 3 players, and we’ve still made £6 million profit? Must have got more than we thought for Emi 🤣

Or, more likely, these figures are as accurate as your predictions.

The figures are incomplete and to all intents and purposes, wrong - there was a thread about it earlier. It does not include "undisclosed fees" - so if neither the buying nor selling club leaked a fee they simply ignored it from the table. They acknowledge this in a later version of the graphic.

[TheGunnShow 5,935]

Thought there were clear signs of things clicking in the last two games and whilst much is said that Arsenal had 30 shots, we blocked 11 of them and another 14 were off target. For all the pressure they had, they didn't have too many clear chances and Krul didn't have too much to do.

With that front four, Arsenal are right in the running for the CL spots, it's whether their defence has improved enough. They were in excellent form down the second half of last season, and it was only a lot of men missing (sound familiar) that meant they were off to a poor start this time out.

I genuinely wouldn't be surprised if we came on strongly in the second half of the season when our new players get more up to speed.

Edited September 15, 2021 by TheGunnShow

[For the future 65]

On 13/09/2021 at 18:46, sonyc said:

These 9 games will take us to a third of the season completed. We will need to be around a point a game in aiming for (around) 40 points.

My take is a follows. Too cautious or too optimistic? 

Watford (h) 3

Everton (a) 0

Burnley (a) 1

Brighton (h) 1

Chelsea (a) 0

Leeds (h) 1

Brentford (a) 3

Southampton (h) 3

Wolves (h) 1

13 points then...after 13 games. 

Interesting run of games here. None easy. But it can be done. 

 

 

 

[Jersey Canary 143]

Watford (h) 3

Everton (a) 0

Burnley (a) 0

Brighton (h) 1

Chelsea (a) 0

Leeds (h) 3

Brentford (a) 1

Southampton (h) 3

Wolves (h) 1

12 pts. 

[paddycanary 538]

23 hours ago, sonyc said:

Just looked again now...I think you should take it as a compliment paddy. I reckon the list of games did stick in this old mind and it started me off thinking what we need to do. You were the catalyst I'm sure.

The thing is, I have always tended to think of the end of November / start of December as a telling marker point for any team....whether aiming for promotion or at the other end. You get outliers every now and then but often a season is mapped out. Incredibly, having checked this out (in many leagues picking different teams) over the years, it bears out.

So...a third way through the season (for the PL) is crucial as you've alluded to. People speak of Christmas but I reckon the die is cast a good while before. If we haven't got say a minimum of 11 points by then I fear for us. 

Watford is so vital. Win and we should get some belief.  🤞🤞

👍 Agree 100%

[KiwiScot 1,443]

How we all doing in our predictions? I just need 7 more points from 4 games to get my prediction of 9 points.

[Hank shoots Skyler 2,094]

9 minutes ago, KiwiScot said:

How we all doing in our predictions? I just need 7 more points from 4 games to get my prediction of 9 points.

I just need us to get 6 points from Leeds and we'll be back on track.

[sonyc 5,508]

1 hour ago, KiwiScot said:

How we all doing in our predictions? I just need 7 more points from 4 games to get my prediction of 9 points.

Thanks for the thread reminder Kiwi. I've called the draws and losses (except for the terrible Watford game) and should we now get a draw, two wins and a draw we will sit on 10 points after 13 games.

That (assuming it ever happens...which lets face it looks very doubtful at this minute) means we will be on course for approximately 30 points at season end. And that won't be enough. I've gone for a draw against Leeds this weekend. I'm worried about that prediction too but will stick with it.

It's now for me so much about the reaction of the players. How much will they want it against a determined Leeds who must be relishing the opportunity to break us.

We will know Sunday about 4pm.

[Midlands Yellow 3,970]

On 14/09/2021 at 17:13, lake district canary said:

I have the feeling that once we get a good result it will have a snowball effect and we will go on a run of wins, so win against Watford and it could set us going on a good run.  I'll say 5 wins, 2 draws, 2 losses - 17 points.

Decent forecast that. 

[komakino 272]

Much depends on who is in charge. 

If it's Farke, then maybe 3 or 4 draws at best as morale will continue to fall. We cannot beat anybody. 

On the other hand, a new manager bounce could give us 12+ points. It's all to play for, if the club actually wants to. 

[Uncle Fred 526]

On 14/09/2021 at 14:28, Uncle Fred said:

2 and I am being optimistic 

Once again  I have called it correct

its getting embarrassing how accurate my predictions about this season have been