Stats dont lie

[mr footy 36]

We are worse this season than last time we were in the prem.Fact.tackles made ,shots on target etc all down on first 4 games compared to last time we were in prem.I have always been optimistic about are chances of staying in this league but I cant see it and that truly saddens me .Watford will fancy a win against us on this form .I hope and pray I am wrong and we survive.

[Flying Dutchman 744]

7 minutes ago, mr footy said:

I hope and pray I am wrong and we survive.

No, you don't. 

[norfolkngood 1,086]

were the stats like for like in terms of teams played ? you will get more shots and tackles against lesser teams 

 

[cambridgeshire canary 6,715]

Neither do my hips

[NFN FC 1,123]

Please provide the stats... 

[Badger 2,405]

I agree that stats don't lie (unless they are fraudulently or incompetently assembled). However, they can be misinterpreted (accidentally or deliberately) and one of the most common errors is to try to see a tendency or pattern whereas in fact it is just a question of normal variation or where the sample size is just to small to draw firm conclusions or two many or there are too many confounding or extraneous variables etc. 

It is an area where there has been so mainly failings with public policy and many other aspects of our lives. In this case, a number of the above apply and the conclusions are therefore unreliable and invalid.

[lake district canary 4,531]

Stats are only as good as the people who interpret them.

[Uncle Fred 526]

You don’t need stats you just have to watch the games to learn we haven’t improved  or have we learned a thing from the last campaign 

 

[Yobocop 1,098]

11 minutes ago, lake district canary said:

Stats are only as good as the people who interpret them.

Probably the most sensible thing you’ve ever said on this forum 

[By Hook or Ian crook 917]

The only stat that matters in football is the final score. 

[TheGunnShow 5,940]

Stats are like miniskirts. What they show is revealing. What they hide is ****ing vital. 😉

[Canary Jedi 579]

Liverpool had 30 shots away at Leeds today. 
 

When Liverpool played us they had 19 shots. 
 

So clearly we are better than Leeds defensively. Stats don’t lie right? 😉

[Tetteys Jig 830]

we've played 4 of the best 7 sides in the league and were a bit unlucky not to get a couple of draws... maybe reserve judgement until after the next 4 games when we've had a chance to play some of the lesser sides we'll be up against.

Last time out we failed miserably in games vs the likes of Burnley as they out muscled and outsmarted us. If we've put together a side that can finally compete and get the points required from them games then we'll be fine. Games against the big 6 and Leicester really won't define our season. Sure if we are still on 0 points after the next 4 then panic away but for now it's premature.

[K Lo 224]

Norwich City 0 - 3 Liverpool - (This season)
Norwich City 0 - 1 Liverpool - (2019/20 season)

Manchester City 5 - 0 Norwich City - (This season)
Manchester City 5 - 0 Norwich City - (2019/20 season)

Norwich City 1 - 2 Leicester City - (This season)
Norwich City 1 - 0 Leicester City - (2019/20 season)

Arsenal 1 - 0 Norwich City - (This season)
Arsenal 4 - 0 Norwich City - (2019/20 season)

Yes, like-for-like, we are 3 points worse off than against the same teams in the Prem last time, so far.

 

 

 

[All the Germans 1,075]

Jesus. How some of you make it through the day is beyond me.

[Mr Angry 1,555]

2 hours ago, mr footy said:

We are worse this season than last time we were in the prem.Fact.tackles made ,shots on target etc all down on first 4 games compared to last time we were in prem.I have always been optimistic about are chances of staying in this league but I cant see it and that truly saddens me .Watford will fancy a win against us on this form .I hope and pray I am wrong and we survive.

You’re wrong.

Shots down, yes. 21 on target in first 4 games in 2019/20, 8 in first 4 this season.
Tackles up though. 56 in 2019/20, 75 this season.

[Midlands Yellow 3,980]

2 hours ago, TheGunnShow said:

Stats are like miniskirts. What they show is revealing. What they hide is ****ing vital. 😉

In Thailand? 

[TIL 1010 4,738]

11 hours ago, Tetteys Jig said:

we've played 4 of the best 7 sides in the league and were a bit unlucky not to get a couple of draws... maybe reserve judgement until after the next 4 games when we've had a chance to play some of the lesser sides we'll be up against.

Last time out we failed miserably in games vs the likes of Burnley as they out muscled and outsmarted us. If we've put together a side that can finally compete and get the points required from them games then we'll be fine. Games against the big 6 and Leicester really won't define our season. Sure if we are still on 0 points after the next 4 then panic away but for now it's premature.

If you think Arsenal are one of the top seven sides in this League you having not been watching the tellybox and you certainly were not at The Emirates on Saturday. They are one of the poorest Arsenal teams i have seen in many a year.

[Tetteys Jig 830]

11 hours ago, K Lo said:

Norwich City 0 - 3 Liverpool - (This season)
Norwich City 0 - 1 Liverpool - (2019/20 season)

Manchester City 5 - 0 Norwich City - (This season)
Manchester City 5 - 0 Norwich City - (2019/20 season)

Norwich City 1 - 2 Leicester City - (This season)
Norwich City 1 - 0 Leicester City - (2019/20 season)

Arsenal 1 - 0 Norwich City - (This season)
Arsenal 4 - 0 Norwich City - (2019/20 season)

Yes, like-for-like, we are 3 points worse off than against the same teams in the Prem last time, so far.

 

 

 

to be fair we only got 18 more points from the other 35 games so I'd hope we can beat that! Sure if we don't then clearly we deserve to be relegated again.

You're clearly just trolling I hope or this is an incredibly smooth brained take on it all.

[Tetteys Jig 830]

17 minutes ago, TIL 1010 said:

If you think Arsenal are one of the top seven sides in this League you having not been watching the tellybox and you certainly were not at The Emirates on Saturday. They are one of the poorest Arsenal teams i have seen in many a year.

come on mate... form is temporary and all that... they have all their main players back after a **** preseason and I've no doubt they will be challenging top 6 again. I bet you 10 pence they finish top 10.

Saka, ESM, Pepe, Aubameyang is a front 4 better than any outside the top 6 and they've got Partey back in the middle as well as finally their first choice back 5.

Are you really ****ting the bed because we narrowly lost away at Arsenal? Most sides outside the top 6 will lose there This season

[Highland Canary 76]

Arsenal looked exceptionally poor on Saturday yet they battered us (for once there was even some noise from the Arsenal fans). It was a poor Leicester team that beat us. Happy to discount results against Liverpool and Cittty (although that was a rabbits in the headline performance).

Par from the first four games was 3 points (H win v Leicester).

Par from the first seven games is 6 points (so that’s a win v Watford, and a win against either Burnley or Everton) to recover the poor Leicester result. Anything above 6 points is a bonus.

And even that’s still less than a point a game.

But that’s if the ambition is to stay up. Certainly that doesn’t appear to be the ambition of this board. Let’s hope Farke still believes.

Edited September 13, 2021 by Highland Canary

[Google Bot 3,275]

1 hour ago, TIL 1010 said:

They are one of the poorest Arsenal teams i have seen in many a year.

If it weren't for some luck and Brandon Williams we could've walked home on a 3-4 goal loss there easily.  30 shots at goal is not poor for a team that's going through a bad patch.  They will be up there come end of season once they get their mojo.

Shame we didn't play them before the break, as the balance went well in their favour with us losing players and they having players returning to fitness.

If we're going to write a team off completely based on some opening poor performances, then we may as well abandon all hope on ourselves with that same sentiment?

Edited September 13, 2021 by Google Bot

[Tetteys Jig 830]

1 hour ago, Highland Canary said:

Arsenal looked exceptionally poor on Saturday yet they battered us (for once there was even some noise from the Arsenal fans). It was a poor Leicester team that beat us. Happy to discount results against Liverpool and Cittty (although that was a rabbits in the headline performance).

Par from the first four games was 3 points (H win v Leicester).

Par from the first seven games is 6 points (so that’s a win v Watford, and a win against either Burnley or Everton) to recover the poor Leicester result. Anything above 6 points is a bonus.

And even that’s still less than a point a game.

But that’s if the ambition is to stay up. Certainly that doesn’t appear to be the ambition of this board. Let’s hope Farke still believes.

I'm not having par being to beat Leicester... they are basically world class from 1 to 11...

par was probably 1 or 2 points but the next 4 games par is more like 6. Wins vs Watford and Burnley are absolutely key and affords us the "luxury" of writing off games vs the likes of Man City and Liverpool in the same way Wigan and Bournemouth used to when they successfully stayed in the division for multiple seasons.

If we are still outplayed, outmusculed and outsmarted by the likes of Burnley and Watford then we absolutely don't deserve to be here.

[gazinOZ 4]

I wasn't too fussed about the losses to Liverpool and Man City but was a tad glum after Leicester because they were really there for the taking on the day; sure we could have come away with a point but our play was strewn with errors, particularly in the back 4. I was expecting a heavy defeat at Arsenal because of the immense pressure they were under and their improved lineup but for the first time this season I thought we got a lot right. First half we weathered the expected initial storm then grew into the game well and took the sting out of the Gunners, to go in at 0-0 at half time was due to some very good game management. Second half we still had times of good possession and at times looked in control, no mean feat away at Arsenal. I was actually relaxed for the first time this season. I'm looking forward to seeing us when we have had some time to actually train together and get some understanding happening. We wont be going down.

[hogesar 9,658]

1 hour ago, Highland Canary said:

Arsenal looked exceptionally poor on Saturday yet they battered us (for once there was even some noise from the Arsenal fans). It was a poor Leicester team that beat us. Happy to discount results against Liverpool and Cittty (although that was a rabbits in the headline performance).

Par from the first four games was 3 points (H win v Leicester).

Par from the first seven games is 6 points (so that’s a win v Watford, and a win against either Burnley or Everton) to recover the poor Leicester result. Anything above 6 points is a bonus.

And even that’s still less than a point a game.

But that’s if the ambition is to stay up. Certainly that doesn’t appear to be the ambition of this board. Let’s hope Farke still believes.

Why isn't it the ambition of this board? What didn't they do that they so obviously should have done this time?

[Google Bot 3,275]

2 hours ago, hogesar said:

What didn't they do that they so obviously should have done this time?

I'm not complaining personally as I like our longterm plan to bed in youngsters and grow them with the club.

However, it shouldn't need pointing out that to give us a decent chance of survival you buy in less number of players at proven quality on higher wages.  Our tactics this window was to carry on building a team with the incoming money, and hope for survival... It's higher risk in the short term.

[hogesar 9,658]

3 hours ago, Google Bot said:

I'm not complaining personally as I like our longterm plan to bed in youngsters and grow them with the club.

However, it shouldn't need pointing out that to give us a decent chance of survival you buy in less number of players at proven quality on higher wages.  Our tactics this window was to carry on building a team with the incoming money, and hope for survival... It's higher risk in the short term.

Who then? What proven Premier League players could we have signed in place of our signings who you think would give us a better chance of survival?

[Google Bot 3,275]

3 hours ago, hogesar said:

Who then? What proven Premier League players could we have signed in place of our signings who you think would give us a better chance of survival?

I said of proven quality by that I mean in the english game and at a decent level. And take your pick, examples of top of my head like Billing, Ings, Choudhury, Andros Townsend, Josh King, Adam Armstrong.  etc.  

Edited September 13, 2021 by Google Bot

[City 2nd 191]

On 12/09/2021 at 21:42, lake district canary said:

Stats are only as good as the people who interpret them.

We have a manager and a team of coaches who rely very very heavily on stats! Not to mention Mr Webber and his team, who rely very very heavily on the stats of players they wish to sign, and those they have signed!

[chicken 2,624]

On 12/09/2021 at 22:35, K Lo said:

Norwich City 0 - 3 Liverpool - (This season)
Norwich City 0 - 1 Liverpool - (2019/20 season)

Manchester City 5 - 0 Norwich City - (This season)
Manchester City 5 - 0 Norwich City - (2019/20 season)

Norwich City 1 - 2 Leicester City - (This season)
Norwich City 1 - 0 Leicester City - (2019/20 season)

Arsenal 1 - 0 Norwich City - (This season)
Arsenal 4 - 0 Norwich City - (2019/20 season)

Yes, like-for-like, we are 3 points worse off than against the same teams in the Prem last time, so far.

Sort of. You also need to take into account the quality of the sides.

Leicester finished 9th in the Prem in both the 2017-18 and 2018-19 seasons. Hard to say they are not a much improved now having finished 5th last season.

On the flip side, that has partly come at the expense of Arsenal who finished 8th I believe, and outside the top six last season having finished 5th in 2018-19.

Liverpool are certainly no worse and continue to be one of two to four genuine title contenders (Man City, Liverpool, Chelsea, Man Utd).

Then there is the fact that we played Liverpool, Man City, Leicester and Arsenal in that order, and as our opening games.

There are so many factors not represented by straight up stats. Context, context, context.