29 points to stay up in the Prem this year

[Graham Paddons Beard 2,424]

Has there ever been such a low figure to finish 17th? 
Actually 28 and a better goal difference could have done it .

Bet it’s different next year .

[cambridgeshire canary 6,680]

End up being 50 needed knowing our luck

[AJ 1,218]

Covid has probably affected it a lot, a congested fixture list and no fans to gee the underdogs on

[HazzaJet 252]

Very rarely are 40 points required for PL survival - it’s just the “magical” number considered to be enough, just like finishing on 90 in the lower tiers will usually grant a team automatic promotion. I know West Ham have gone down on 42 in the past and Sunderland have missed out on automatic promotion on 90, but that’s very rare

Have had a look at past seasons and since West Ham went down on 42 in 2003, the only time 40 were required for survival was in 2011, when 3rd from bottom Birmingham finished on 39. In the past 10 seasons, the average number points required has been 35. Looking at it roughly I’d probably say 37/38 would usually have been enough

Edited May 23, 2021 by HazzaJet

[alex_ncfc 649]

On a related topic, how on earth did Sheff Utd manage to get 7 wins after that run they had in the first half of the season? I was hoping they'd go winless or do a Derby,

[DraytonBoy 142]

I think the gap between the Championship and the PL just gets bigger every year and without decent investment in the summer the promoted clubs will always struggle.

[Capt. Pants 4,202]

12 minutes ago, DraytonBoy said:

I think the gap between the Championship and the PL just gets bigger every year and without decent investment in the summer the promoted clubs will always struggle.

Agreed. Polarisation in the top two leagues now and even in those leagues. A significant drop in quality in the Championship this season in my view. Doesn't detract from our achievement but noticeable.

Huge gap between League One and Championship too.

[KiwiScot 1,438]

The gap between 17th and 18th is of concern with most teams basically winning one, losing one. 39/40 points needed this year in reality to survive.

[king canary 7,580]

39 minutes ago, DraytonBoy said:

I think the gap between the Championship and the PL just gets bigger every year and without decent investment in the summer the promoted clubs will always struggle.

Yep it feels like it's getting bigger each year and as someone (I think Bethnal) said, those mid level Premier League clubs are getting smarter in how they go about things. Big challenge for us this season.

[yellowrider120 761]

So at least ANOTHER 5 wins (or some mix of wins / draws) is likely required on top of the 21 point haul last time round. One does seriously wonder where on earth they will come from especially if the publicly quoted stories of .............'not signing another striker' are indeed club policy.   

[TheGunnShow 5,933]

10 minutes ago, yellowrider120 said:

So at least ANOTHER 5 wins (or some mix of wins / draws) is likely required on top of the 21 point haul last time round. One does seriously wonder where on earth they will come from especially if the publicly quoted stories of .............'not signing another striker' are indeed club policy.   

Not losing all our centre-halves would be a bloody good starting point though. Hell, we beat Man City when they had centre-half crises and Liverpool struggled for prolonged periods this season without a fully functional set of centre-halves. If we keep our defenders fit, our attackers should be fine.

Cantwell, Buendia, Pukki will get enough goals if the line-up behind them is solid.

[birchfest 397]

10 wins and a smattering of draws to get us as close to 39/40 should be the bottom end goal, I hope that with a better defence this time around we could get the 12 wins and enough draws to be comfortable at 45+. 

 

A lot of factors though: who we keep, who we sign, who is fit and who we get in the first 5 matches. Get a good start and win one of the first 3 and we can hopefully push on. 

[Ian 1,129]

1 hour ago, yellowrider120 said:

So at least ANOTHER 5 wins (or some mix of wins / draws) is likely required on top of the 21 point haul last time round. One does seriously wonder where on earth they will come from especially if the publicly quoted stories of .............'not signing another striker' are indeed club policy.   

That's the spirit. We're already relegated before we've kicked a ball, or even signed anybody for that matter.

I think it's well recognised that we are a substantially improved team defensively that the last time we went up, which hopefully is going to keep us in more matches than last season and also give us the ability to nick results and pick up points where we lost last time.

We also need more luck in terms of injuries, and a non-Covid affected season, but I personally feel 40 points is certainly more achievable with the current squad anyway.

[Bethnal Yellow and Green 1,557]

While Burnley could have stayed up with only 29 points - Fulham would have needed 40 points to get ahead of Burnley's actual points total to stay up.

Just goes to show how tough it is to stay up in the Prem. 

[MORDENCANARY 71]

That is not a simple sum.....if Burnley had only got 29 points ,where would the points Burnley didn't get go ?

[yellowrider120 761]

47 minutes ago, Ian said:

That's the spirit. We're already relegated before we've kicked a ball, or even signed anybody for that matter.

I think it's well recognised that we are a substantially improved team defensively that the last time we went up, which hopefully is going to keep us in more matches than last season and also give us the ability to nick results and pick up points where we lost last time.

We also need more luck in terms of injuries, and a non-Covid affected season, but I personally feel 40 points is certainly more achievable with the current squad anyway.

I admire your optimism and hope it's justified by the realities. I didn't say we are already relegated but if we insist on our policy of playing Pukki pretty much every minute of pretty much every game then you can forget about survival. The bloke needs genuine competition and some degree of rotation in my opinion. 

[Ian 1,129]

2 minutes ago, yellowrider120 said:

I admire your optimism and hope it's justified by the realities. I didn't say we are already relegated but if we insist on our policy of playing Pukki pretty much every minute of pretty much every game then you can forget about survival. The bloke needs genuine competition and some degree of rotation in my opinion. 

Agreed, but all I am saying is let's see what Webber and Farke can come up with signings wise!

 

[dylanisabaddog 4,877]

3 hours ago, TheGunnShow said:

Cantwell, Buendia, Pukki will get enough goals if the line-up behind them is solid.

Hate to sound like a misery guts but Emi definitely won't be here next season. Lose Emi and we also lose most of Pukki's goals. 

I wouldn't be surprised to see Todd go as well. 

[DraytonBoy 142]

The summer's transfer activity is going to be compressed due to the Euro 2020/Copa America tournaments which may work in City's favour with regard to keeping Buendia, with both starting just after the transfer window opens on the 9th of June you'd have to assume that nothing will happen until they both end (10th/12th of July) which is only four weeks until the PL season begins, not much time to get deals done.   

[Wacky Waving Inflatable Arm Flailing Tube Man 3,783]

6 minutes ago, DraytonBoy said:

The summer's transfer activity is going to be compressed due to the Euro 2020/Copa America tournaments which may work in City's favour with regard to keeping Buendia, with both starting just after the transfer window opens on the 9th of June you'd have to assume that nothing will happen until they both end (10th/12th of July) which is only four weeks until the PL season begins, not much time to get deals done.   

I could be wrong, but I don't think Buendia will be going to the Copa America. He has been named in an enlarged 32-man squad for two World Cup qualifiers, but might find it a challenge to get into the 23-man tournament squad ahead of more established players. I'm not sure when the final squad gets named.

Edited May 24, 2021 by Wacky Waving Inflatable Arm Flailing Tube Man

[BigFish 1,986]

4 hours ago, Bethnal Yellow and Green said:

While Burnley could have stayed up with only 29 points - Fulham would have needed 40 points to get ahead of Burnley's actual points total to stay up.

Just goes to show how tough it is to stay up in the Prem. 

More this, 40 points needed for survival. Pretty much the benchmark quoted at the start of every season

[DraytonBoy 142]

22 minutes ago, Wacky Waving Inflatable Arm Flailing Tube Man said:

I could be wrong, but I don't think Buendia will be going to the Copa America. He has been named in an enlarged 32-man squad for two World Cup qualifiers, but might find it a challenge to get into the 23-man tournament squad ahead of more established players. I'm not sure when the final squad gets named.

I think you're right as it looks as though the provisional CA squad has already announced and he's not in it, I guess he's still in with a chance if anyone gets injured in the WC games.

[ncfcstar 287]

18 minutes ago, BigFish said:

More this, 40 points needed for survival. Pretty much the benchmark quoted at the start of every season

It's more complicated than that though isn't it, all this season shows is that the bottom 3 were significantly worse than any of the remaining 17 teams.  If one or two of the bottom teams had performed better, then the points would have been more evenly distributed around between teams at the bottom so it's unlikely 40 points would have been needed.

The average shows you probably need somewhere between 35 and 36 points to stay up in a season where the bottom three aren't cut adrift.

[spencer 1970 207]

...and we got 21 last season, still less than Sheff Utd’s 23 this season even with their abysmal start. That was some collapse after a promising start.

We have to near double that to come 17^th right? Gonna be hard, especially if Buendia goes as our stats without him are pretty horrible.

Sorry, I am actually quite fun at parties.

 

 

[BigFish 1,986]

3 hours ago, ncfcstar said:

It's more complicated than that though isn't it, all this season shows is that the bottom 3 were significantly worse than any of the remaining 17 teams.  If one or two of the bottom teams had performed better, then the points would have been more evenly distributed around between teams at the bottom so it's unlikely 40 points would have been needed.

The average shows you probably need somewhere between 35 and 36 points to stay up in a season where the bottom three aren't cut adrift.

You are over complicating it, benchmark was 39 points for survival (and a goal difference) - you are right Fulham could have picked up an additional 5 of those from beating Burnley home and away. Still leaves them short by 3 points. Even if Burnley still went on their trip to the beach, which is unlikely.