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Alex Moss

Transfer Rumour Thread Season 2021/22

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1 hour ago, king canary said:

We know as Webber publicly said no sort of agreement existed.

I've seen this said multiple times but i've never actually seen or heard it myself, do you have a link by any chance? I mean it's hardly an unbelievable thing it's just i've not seen it.

The closest quote I could find was

Quote

“Despite us not wanting Emi to leave, once he made it clear that he wanted to go to Aston Villa, and they reached the level of deal we have got to, we were left with little option."

 

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I doubt there was any formal agreement but surely it's obvious that with all the issues at the start of last season there would have been a conversation with both Buendia and Todd that "if you commit to the team and do all you can to get us back up then we will do the honorable thing and not stand in your way if we get an offer in line with our valuation".

Only Q really is then what the valuation ends up being... expect Buendia/agent said they think £33m is enough and if you dont agree we will throw our toys out of the pram again so Webber had little choice.

Hopefully local lad Todd will show a bit more loyalty!

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1 hour ago, Cantiaci Canary said:

But Watford are far wealthier than us ... if we had their finances maybe we could have tempted Emi to stay - we don't.

If we aren't selling out to a billionaire investor then this is inevitable.

Watford are £111 million in debt!

 

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You can be a billion in debt and still be one of the wealthiest clubs in the world. Watford can easily give double the wages we can right now.

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9 minutes ago, Badger said:

Watford are £111 million in debt!

 

But unlike us they don't give two figs about debt. Their investors will write it off if they are forced to.

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10 minutes ago, Cantiaci Canary said:

But unlike us they don't give two figs about debt. Their investors will write it off if they are forced to.

I very much doubt that! 

They have a bank overdraft of £15 million + owe another £10 million to Santander for a start. It is true that they owe most of their debt to the owners (about £76 million) but they doesn't just give them this - they charge LIBOR + 5.35%!

In other words having investor owners means that any money they receive next year is top sliced by £6 million in interest payments alone! How does that make them better off?

(Sorry you need to be a subscriber to read the link)

https://theathletic.co.uk/2683699/2021/07/01/watford-financial-figures-transfer-fees-rising-debt/?redirected=1

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21 minutes ago, KeiranShikari said:

You can be a billion in debt and still be one of the wealthiest clubs in the world. Watford can easily give double the wages we can right now.

So explain how that works then? Especially when you are having to pay interest on the debt. If as you suggest they coud be a billion in debt, they would be paying over 50 million (over a third of their revenue) in interest!

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46 minutes ago, hogesar said:

I've seen this said multiple times but i've never actually seen or heard it myself, do you have a link by any chance? I mean it's hardly an unbelievable thing it's just i've not seen it.

The closest quote I could find was

 

Having looked it seems I've over egged this one a bit- it hasn't been said publicly by Webber, I thought it had.

The Athletic piece after Emi left says 'contrary to popular belief there had been no agreement between Emi and the club 12 months ago.' So I guess it depends on how reliable you think that is.

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1 minute ago, Badger said:

So explain how that works then? Especially when you are having to pay interest on the debt. If as you suggest they coud be a billion in debt, they would be paying over 50 million (over a third of their revenue) in interest!

As long as the club is making enough to pay for the obligations that come with debt it's no problem having debt.

 

https://sqaf.club/football-club-debt-list/

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4 hours ago, Dr Greenthumb said:

Whatever they did has clearly worked (so far). We just need to make sure that we invest like they have.

It always works... until it doesn't. That's when the nasty stuff hits the fan. Watford have £11 million in debt and interest payments of 6 million taken from their revenue in interest payments. If they run a breakeven budget they have reduced spending capacity of £6 million to cover the interest. If they run a deficit, their debt increases and they have to pay even more interest the next year.

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4 minutes ago, KeiranShikari said:

As long as the club is making enough to pay for the obligations that come with debt it's no problem having debt.

 

https://sqaf.club/football-club-debt-list/

This is one of the problems - debt isn’t necessarily a bad thing.  It is when it gets unmanageable.  The problem is identifying when you get there.

Edited by Branston Pickle

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1 minute ago, KeiranShikari said:

As long as the club is making enough to pay for the obligations that come with debt it's no problem having debt.

 

https://sqaf.club/football-club-debt-list/

I think that you will find in the real world, that lenders become increasingly nervous about lending to people whose debts are greater than than their assets. I'm not sure that the Pozzo brothers would be able to sustain 2 or 3 years in the Championship, which they will experience at some stage.

The link that you helpfully provides shows clubs with far greater assets and turnovers and therefore able to bear heavier debt loads.

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As a Watford fan myself you have to understand the Pozzo network. They have scouts in unfasionable places like Eastern Europe, Africa and South America. Watford have several players on our books who have been loaned out to Europe and never set foot in Hertfordshire. Last season we sold Luis Suarez a colombian and Pervis Estupinan an Ecuadorian for £25 million. Both were spotted as kids and loaned out to Spainish sides both excelled. Whilst we have large debt we have a substantial player pool to cover it.

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3 minutes ago, Branston Pickle said:

This is one of the problems - debt isn’t necessarily a bad thing.  It is when it gets unmanageable.  The problem is identifying when you get there.

You know that it becomes unmanageable when you get relegated and stay down! It's just a big gamble against the future. 

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If we had stayed down we would have to have sold the big names and borrowed Udineses reserve side again to get promoted like we did in 2015.

Edited by Moosebadge

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Nothing confusing you have a father owning Udinese and a son owning Watford. The two clubs combine resources on scouting to spot talented players and make profit on the Transfer Market. As a small town lower league championship club this arrangement has produced 6 Premier League seasons, 2 Premier League promotions, an FA Cup final and a failed championship play off final in 8 years. 

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2 minutes ago, Moosebadge said:

As a Watford fan myself you have to understand the Pozzo network. They have scouts in unfasionable places like Eastern Europe, Africa and South America. Watford have several players on our books who have been loaned out to Europe and never set foot in Hertfordshire. Last season we sold Luis Suarez a colombian and Pervis Estupinan an Ecuadorian for £25 million. Both were spotted as kids and loaned out to Spainish sides both excelled. Whilst we have large debt we have a substantial player pool to cover it.

I know about the Pozzos. They are not particularly rich by football owner standards - they are not mega rich hoby owners - hence the interest that they charge on the loans to the club. The player trading model is a good one, and something that we doing ourselves. The simple fact is that if you are paying millions to your owners, it is millions that you can't spend elsewhere - if their expertise is exceptional, it might be worth it, you could almost think of it as a wage, but for most clubs it is not viable.

Players do not count as assets on the balance sheet. Watford's financial position is not healthy and they would have struggled if they had been promoted this year. I really wouldn't expect the Pozzos to write off their debt and I'm sure that the banks woudn't write their off. I don't know, of course, but I suspect that Watford will be pretty cautious this year.

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It beats being minutes away from administration and possible liquidation in 2011 over a debt of 12 million. Although it was amazing seeing 6 of our academy players in the side and keeping us up somehow. Dyche worked a miracle that season.

Edited by Moosebadge

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22 minutes ago, king canary said:

Having looked it seems I've over egged this one a bit- it hasn't been said publicly by Webber, I thought it had.

The Athletic piece after Emi left says 'contrary to popular belief there had been no agreement between Emi and the club 12 months ago.' So I guess it depends on how reliable you think that is.

I don't think it's you that over-egged it, i've seen multiple people say it so I was fairly sure it must have been somewhere. I reckon the Athletic piece is more likely accurate rather than not.

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I dont think you need to worry. I honestly think that Watford, Norwich and Brentford will all stay up. Gut feeling is Crystal Palace, Southampton and Burnley are all in trouble. Can see Wolves struggling and without a goalscorer Brighton look iffy.

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4 hours ago, king canary said:

So...like we did last season with Godfrey and Lewis?

No. We used it to cover covid losses. Southampton borrowed £75 million at 9.5% instead!

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1 minute ago, Badger said:

No. We used it to cover covid losses. Southampton borrowed £75 million at 9.5% instead!

In the Championship?

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5 minutes ago, Moosebadge said:

It beats being minutes away from administration and possible liquidation in 2011 over a debt of 12 million. Although it was amazing seeing 6 of our academy players in the side and keeping us up somehow. Dyche worked a miracle that season.

I have nothing against Watford and the Pozzos. They have been very smart in the transfer market like Brentford and us. My original involvement about Watford was to refute the statement below. I don't think Watford are far wealthier than us, nor do I think that the Pozzos are billionaires who would "write off" their investment.

Nor do I think that it is sustainable for any club to continually increase debt levels and interest payments - even Barcelona are finding this out now!

2 hours ago, Cantiaci Canary said:

But Watford are far wealthier than us ... if we had their finances maybe we could have tempted Emi to stay - we don't.

If we aren't selling out to a billionaire investor then this is inevitable.

 

52 minutes ago, Cantiaci Canary said:

But unlike us they don't give two figs about debt. Their investors will write it off if they are forced to.

 

 

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5 minutes ago, king canary said:

In the Championship?

No, they were in the Premier league last year, but borrowed to cover covid losses whilst we sold players. In doing so, I would argue that the replacements were as good, if not better. Southampton on the other hand will be paying £7.2 million a yeat in interest and have to pay back £75 million in 2025, whichever division they are in!

Which do you prefer?

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12 minutes ago, Moosebadge said:

I dont think you need to worry. I honestly think that Watford, Norwich and Brentford will all stay up. Gut feeling is Crystal Palace, Southampton and Burnley are all in trouble. Can see Wolves struggling and without a goalscorer Brighton look iffy.

Southampton are in big trouble if they go down and don't come back up quickly!

Debt of nearly 100 million, over 75% of turnover, interest payments would be nearly a third of their non parachute revenue + they have a debt of 76 million that they have to pay back in 2025 (at 9.14%).

Burnley would be in a even worse mess. 

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46 minutes ago, Moosebadge said:

I dont think you need to worry. I honestly think that Watford, Norwich and Brentford will all stay up. Gut feeling is Crystal Palace, Southampton and Burnley are all in trouble. Can see Wolves struggling and without a goalscorer Brighton look iffy.

When I think of survival, I always look at who the managers are and of they are going to stay. Now Roy Hodgson has left Palace, I think they will struggle. As long as Potter and Dyche stay at their respective clubs they will stay up - of not, they could well go down. Wolves and Southampton maybe a good shout, and at least one of the promoted teams will go

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1 hour ago, Badger said:

It always works... until it doesn't. That's when the nasty stuff hits the fan. Watford have £11 million in debt and interest payments of 6 million taken from their revenue in interest payments. If they run a breakeven budget they have reduced spending capacity of £6 million to cover the interest. If they run a deficit, their debt increases and they have to pay even more interest the next year.

That’s nice for Watford, I was referring to Southampton 

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1 hour ago, Badger said:

It always works... until it doesn't. That's when the nasty stuff hits the fan.

 

6 hours ago, Dr Greenthumb said:

Whatever they did has clearly worked (so far). We just need to make sure that we invest like they have.

 

 

8 minutes ago, Dr Greenthumb said:

That’s nice for Watford, I was referring to Southampton 

It has worked for Southampton so far but...

Southampton have debt of nearly 100 million, over 75% of turnover, interest payments would be nearly a third of their non parachute revenue + they have a debt of £76 million that they have to pay back in 2025 (at 9.14%).

I suspect that it's only a matter of time...

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