Toney breaks Championship record for most goals scored

[Ken Hairy 3,771]

I have a feeling Toney won't be at Brentford next season, no matter what league they're in. Can see him being a perfect fit at West Ham. 

[cambridgeshire canary 6,708]

47 minutes ago, Ken Hairy said:

I have a feeling Toney won't be at Brentford next season, no matter what league they're in. Can see him being a perfect fit at West Ham. 

Never thought the day would come in which I would unironically describe Lingard and Toney as a 'deadly duo'

[Upo 91]

21 minutes ago, It's Character Forming said:

If a player takes all the penalties for a team, that will include ones he didn’t win and ones where it was not a high chance of scoring. And a 75% chance of scoring is much better than you get in open play almost all of the time. Hence I would still compare non penalty stats for strikers.

The fact that Toney did get one more from open play than Pukki shows he is a really good striker and Brentford were over dependent on him. Be interesting to see how they do assuming they stay down , I have a feeling he’s near the end of his contract? 

 

There is definitely a reason why penalties and open play goals are useful to analyze separately. But that reason isn't to value these goals differently.

The penalty is a result of concerted offensive effort where the taker has usually played a role in. Often being the one who was fouled in the first place.

Consider a situation where Max dribbles inside the box and Teemu makes a move into open position. If there are 2 defenders, one of who has to guard against Teemu, and one against Max; What happens if Max dribbles past his defender successfully? The only solution for the defender is to risk penalty and tackle Max hoping to hit the ball first, because his backup is busy guarding Teemu.

Teemu's presence draws defenders opening space for Max. The defenders know perfectly well what Teemu is capable of; There is no alternative to guarding him. His presence is part of the equation that determines defensive action of the two defenders.

Teemu takes the pen and probably scores. A month later, after a couple similar pens, the pundits are getting restless and complain Teemu has lost his form and Max does all the work.

[king canary 7,604]

2 hours ago, Upo said:

2 People mistake penalty shoot-outs with awarded penalties. They are completely different. Penalties are awarded when defensive side interrupts a process that has exceptionally high probability of ending in the net. That is why defenders foul inside box! A pen should be counted as an extension of a decisive offensive process.

While I agree with your overarching point, this is a massive generalisation. A large number of penalties are awarded when there isn't a huge probability of the ball ending up the in net- players attacking down the channel for instance, or the infuriating ones where a defender fouls someone heading away from goal.

[canarydan23 4,060]

Pukki's 29 goals from open play in 18/19 is a far better achievement than Toney's 31 with all his (9?) penalties, particularly when the last three Brentford penalties I witnessed were absolute jokes.

[wcorkcanary 4,334]

1 hour ago, king canary said:

While I agree with your overarching point, this is a massive generalisation. A large number of penalties are awarded when there isn't a huge probability of the ball ending up the in net- players attacking down the channel for instance, or the infuriating ones where a defender fouls someone heading away from goal.

Where the player and ball are heading is irrelevant,  a foul in the box is a penalty. Cuts both ways , so why get infuriated? But I agree that it's a flaw in Upos argument.  

I suppose the point being made is that although a penalty is 100% as valuable as a goal from play , is it as ' respected..... mostly I'd say no, but there again , a 93 min pen to draw or win a big game puts enormous pressure on the taker, so respect is due if despatched. 

[king canary 7,604]

2 hours ago, wcorkcanary said:

Where the player and ball are heading is irrelevant,  a foul in the box is a penalty. Cuts both ways , so why get infuriated? But I agree that it's a flaw in Upos argument.  

I suppose the point being made is that although a penalty is 100% as valuable as a goal from play , is it as ' respected..... mostly I'd say no, but there again , a 93 min pen to draw or win a big game puts enormous pressure on the taker, so respect is due if despatched. 

I mean infuriating in 'how could you be so stupid?' asked at the defender in question. 

[wcorkcanary 4,334]

17 minutes ago, king canary said:

I mean infuriating in 'how could you be so stupid?' asked at the defender in question. 

My mistake,  apologies. 

[Upo 91]

18 hours ago, king canary said:

While I agree with your overarching point, this is a massive generalisation. A large number of penalties are awarded when there isn't a huge probability of the ball ending up the in net- players attacking down the channel for instance, or the infuriating ones where a defender fouls someone heading away from goal.

 

That's a reasonable argument. I'm sure it's one of the  central problems that the rule setters wrestle with.

In principle, I do think that since a pen is "penalty", it's supposed to have a higher likelihood of going in than pretty much anything one can do inside the box... However, a defender can reasonably expect to get away with his interference every now and then, which reduces probability of that xG 0.75 chance happening. The defender might actually  hit the ball first, but since awarding a pen is usually the biggest decision ref can make to influence the game, refs may also be biased against awarding them. The rules within the box therefore must be as clear as possible. It's a compromise where clarity takes precedence over moderation. I don't know how much VAR changes the situation. I'd think it reduces awarded pens, since defenders avoid fouling and strikers avoid "performances".

[Upo 91]

17 hours ago, canarydan23 said:

Pukki's 29 goals from open play in 18/19 is a far better achievement than Toney's 31 with all his (9?) penalties, particularly when the last three Brentford penalties I witnessed were absolute jokes.

 

If it wasn't for Toney's 10 assists, I'd rate Teemu higher this season even if Toney had scored 31 from open play. Teemu was well known and our main opposition prepared to counter him and Emi.

[canarydan23 4,060]

46 minutes ago, Upo said:

 

If it wasn't for Toney's 10 assists, I'd rate Teemu higher this season even if Toney had scored 31 from open play. Teemu was well known and our main opposition prepared to counter him and Emi.

I can agree with that, but the assists can't be discounted and for that reason if I'm being completely honest with myself I do think Toney has edged it this season v Pukki, on an individual level. Obviously Pukki has had the better season overall because he's a champion and PL bound!