Hartlepool set to become tory, having been Labour since 1974

[sonyc 5,511]

Very interesting results so far. Can't recall who said it this morning but the gist was that Johnson is not trusted but that doesn't matter as he is very popular with a lot of voters. He appeals to a view on what is 'Britishness'. He has a personality that many find appealing (on this board too). Starmer then looks quite aloof in comparison. 

A very good day for the Tory party. A few signs locally good for the Greens and even Liberal Dems who could further fracture any future Labour Party support nationally. Without doing much ahead, it appears that the Tory Party will be in power for a very long time as there is no united opposition and the country is clearly further to the right side of centre than a decade ago. The Labour Party has no answer and indeed the Tory party has taken some of its public investment message as its own.

 

[Rock The Boat 1,330]

2 hours ago, Yellow Fever said:

You seem to think England is the UK - whereas only a  hundred or so miles away form Hartlepool the SNP (left) look like they will do  very well and Johnson is toxic. Ergo it's not a UK wide Tory or even 'right' issue. Johnson is an English phenomena.

I suspect it's very much a protest ' time for change vote by the 'taken for granted' at the status quo whatever you think the status quo is - Labour Party as in Hartlepool,  EU, Westminster and so on. You by your comments are clearly taking Scotland for granted!!! 

It's way beyond a protest vote now. Labour is not even in office and protest votes are aimed at the sitting government. What's happening is far more seismic. It's a fundamental shift in the electorate who are no longer bound by the old loyalties. It isn't a shift to the left 9r the right of the parties, if it was then Starmer would be attracting voters. It's actually a shift in the people

[sonyc 5,511]

13 minutes ago, It's Character Forming said:

 

I can't ever remember the main opposition party getting a good kicking in the same way for a traditionally safe seat, ending up losing it by 8,000 to 15,000 votes is a shocker.  I am struggling to understand it.

I think it's because (a) the Labour candidate was a real remain supporter before and more importantly, (b) Labour are seen as being quite irrelevant actually. You could add (c) that the Tory candidate has had a very active and successful campaign and consequently has really gained the trust and speaks far more to local people.

Despite lots of early mis-steps too by the current administration in managing the pandemic, people often only remember the ending phase (we hope that it is !) and the vaccination is providing real hope. 

Edited May 7, 2021 by sonyc

[horsefly 4,298]

The 1983 election saw Labour's vote slump to 27.6% and a Tory majority of 144 seats. The 1997 election saw Labour's vote increase to 43.5% and a Labour majority of 179 seats. A touch early to be talking of the extinction of the Labour Party I would suggest.

[Rock The Boat 1,330]

What we are seeing is a process ignited in 2016 by the referendum, nurtured by the establishment refusing to acknowledge the voice of the people, cemented by getting Brexit done, and confirmed by Hartlepool. 

If those in power ignore the people, the people will react. 

[Barbe bleu 823]

23 minutes ago, sonyc said:

I think it's because (a) the Labour candidate was a real remain supporter before and more importantly, (b) Labour are seen as being quite irrelevant actually. You could add (c) that the Tory candidate has had a very active and successful campaign and consequently has really gained the trust and speaks far more to local people.

Despite lots of early mis-steps too by the current administration in managing the pandemic, people often only remember the ending phase (we hope that it is !) and the vaccination is providing real hope. 

Irrelevant, or associated with the priorities of a different tribe?

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

13 minutes ago, Rock The Boat said:

What we are seeing is a process ignited in 2016 by the referendum, nurtured by the establishment refusing to acknowledge the voice of the people, cemented by getting Brexit done, and confirmed by Hartlepool. 

If those in power ignore the people, the people will react. 

42% is the voice of the people?

[Rock The Boat 1,330]

1 minute ago, keelansgrandad said:

42% is the voice of the people?

Tories got 52% of the Hartlepool vote. A massive achievement in a multiparity election in a (former) staunch Labour stronghold for a sitting government. 

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

1 minute ago, Rock The Boat said:

Tories got 52% of the Hartlepool vote. A massive achievement in a multiparity election in a (former) staunch Labour stronghold for a sitting government. 

Dear oh dear. Only 42% of the eligible electorate voted! How is that a mandate?

[Mello Yello 2,289]

There's hope.....Maybe there will be a sanctuary for those politically disgruntled?....If that selective memory glorified councillor Jinja Ninja "Wee Jock Mcplop" gets her predicted majority an' much sought 'FREEEDUMMM'! and including her little mentioned Independence vote victory from the sinister Sassenach South.....You disgruntled can then have an exodus north of the border and migrate and settle in the Marxistiaeftysocialista Ecosse.....Hopefully then a return to your precious EU and all the other things you so do pine for?.....Haggis supper an' a pint o' heavy......Stovies an' a wee dram.....Free Prescriptions an' Dental treatment.....University education on the never never....magic methadone.....etc....etc.....Unlimited golf an' supportin' Celtic an' Rangers.....Och Aye!....

PS, don't forget to put some magic money tree seeds in your luggage afore ye go.....Something's gotta pay for it.....

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

2 minutes ago, Mello Yello said:

There's hope.....Maybe there will be a sanctuary for those politically disgruntled?....If that selective memory glorified councillor Jinja Ninja "Wee Jock Mcplop" gets her predicted majority an' much sought 'FREEEDUMMM'! and including her little mentioned Independence vote victory from the sinister Sassenach South.....You disgruntled can then have an exodus north of the border and migrate and settle in the Marxistiaeftysocialista Ecosse.....Hopefully then a return to your precious EU and all the other things you so do pine for?.....Haggis supper an' a pint o' heavy......Stovies an' a wee dram.....Free Prescriptions an' Dental treatment.....University education on the never never....magic methadone.....etc....etc.....Unlimited golf an' supportin' Celtic an' Rangers.....Och Aye!....

PS, don't forget to put some magic money tree seeds in your luggage afore ye go.....Something's gotta pay for it.....

If I lived next to you I would migrate to India right now

[Mello Yello 2,289]

Just now, keelansgrandad said:

If I lived next to you I would migrate to India right now

You certainly won't be missed Scotch mist...." Giz a flower" or maybe 🎵"Goin' up Camborne Hill comin' down.....(Bre a Gammbronn).....Non Emmett.....

[Mello Yello 2,289]

10 minutes ago, keelansgrandad said:

If I lived next to you I would migrate to India right now

If I lived next to you I'd pay for your ticket.....

[It's Character Forming 1,160]

56 minutes ago, sonyc said:

I think it's because (a) the Labour candidate was a real remain supporter before and more importantly, (b) Labour are seen as being quite irrelevant actually. You could add (c) that the Tory candidate has had a very active and successful campaign and consequently has really gained the trust and speaks far more to local people.

Despite lots of early mis-steps too by the current administration in managing the pandemic, people often only remember the ending phase (we hope that it is !) and the vaccination is providing real hope. 

Good points @sonyc . On the pandemic also I’d say virtually every government has had plenty of mis- steps and countries that have done well such as NZ are mainly down to more favourable circumstances etc rather than better government handling of the crisis.

[ricardo 7,385]

1 hour ago, keelansgrandad said:

 

Then I will be the looney, leftie, marxist, tree hugger🌳🤢

Watch out for a bloke with an ice pick.😉

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

52 minutes ago, Mello Yello said:

If I lived next to you I'd pay for your ticket.....

No you wouldn't Tory Boy. You would lend me the money at 10%

[WD40 720]

43 minutes ago, It's Character Forming said:

Good points @sonyc . On the pandemic also I’d say virtually every government has had plenty of mis- steps and countries that have done well such as NZ are mainly down to more favourable circumstances etc rather than better government handling of the crisis.

Apart from the US and Trump, the pandemic has favoured the sitting governments as they generally try to do the right thing. Scott Morrison was in the toilet in Australia after his handling of the bush fires, now after a pretty strong showing he’s gained popularity and Labour have no idea what to do there either.

After the fact this Hartlepool result seemed on the cards if you think all the UKIP votes from 2019 would go Tory this time. But it’s a good excuse for the Socialists in the Labour Party to give their own a good kicking - they like nothing more. They can’t abide their party actually being in power though and much happy to play university politics. 

[Canary Wundaboy 1,359]

1 hour ago, keelansgrandad said:

Dear oh dear. Only 42% of the eligible electorate voted! How is that a mandate?

Because the other 58% don't give a toss either way and therefore don't count. Tis ever thus.

[Mello Yello 2,289]

33 minutes ago, keelansgrandad said:

No you wouldn't Tory Boy. You would lend me the money at 10%

No, I'd take you there free gratis in a Tory Tuk Tuk......It'll take some time though, as it only turns right....

[TheGunnShow 5,940]

1 hour ago, It's Character Forming said:

Good points @sonyc . On the pandemic also I’d say virtually every government has had plenty of mis- steps and countries that have done well such as NZ are mainly down to more favourable circumstances etc rather than better government handling of the crisis.

Not sure that covers Taiwan, South Korea or indeed Vietnam.

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

11 minutes ago, Mello Yello said:

No, I'd take you there free gratis in a Tory Tuk Tuk......It'll take some time though, as it only turns right....

Tories don't go to India. They moan about them all being over here

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

1 hour ago, ricardo said:

Watch out for a bloke with an ice pick.😉

Is that for the G&Ts?

[Mello Yello 2,289]

14 minutes ago, keelansgrandad said:

Tories don't go to India. They moan about them all being over here

Oh dear......

[Jools 584]

2 hours ago, keelansgrandad said:

Tories don't go to India. They moan about them all being over here

 

 

🙃

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

You can't get over your admiration for Diane Jools?

[sonyc 5,511]

4 hours ago, It's Character Forming said:

Good points @sonyc . On the pandemic also I’d say virtually every government has had plenty of mis- steps and countries that have done well such as NZ are mainly down to more favourable circumstances etc rather than better government handling of the crisis.

Just back from a longish walk so apologies for not responding sooner. I think that's a fair point to make overall, reading some reports from populations in say Belgium, France, Spain. There has been a lot of criticism.

I'm less sure about New Zealand because despite their relative isolation, their response has been markedly different even with near neighbours. The leadership there has been strong and sure. Would I have trust if I lived in NZ? Definitely. 

I'm less sure too that when this is all reflected upon post pandemic, that a good many people who have lost relatives will not feel some fault lies with our government? Perhaps not? 

My sense is that our current government feels as if it is responding in a much more measured way in the last two months (cronyism and scandal aside but focussing on the health / management / economy response) than those first 6 months. Big learning curves for our government and others for sure.

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

Our local councillor, local man, an Independent, who has held the seat for years who is just the sort of chap you need who deals with the minutae as much as planning etc, was thrown out for a Tory.

Very disappointing. Just thrown out. And by a massive margin. Cannot believe it. 

Yet Falmouth has turned Red.

I give up

[KiwiScot 1,443]

19 hours ago, keelansgrandad said:

42% is the voice of the people?

Well yes. The other 58% will have a chance to speak up next time if they so choose.

[horsefly 4,298]

19 hours ago, Rock The Boat said:

Tories got 52% of the Hartlepool vote. A massive achievement in a multiparity election in a (former) staunch Labour stronghold for a sitting government. 

So that's a massive 21% of the voting population of Hartlepool who voted Tory then. WOW!!!!! Truly a "massive achievement", and not a sign of an exhausted largely alienated voting public.

[Creative Midfielder 1,996]

2 hours ago, KiwiScot said:

Well yes. The other 58% will have a chance to speak up next time if they so choose.

The 58% spoke up last time and our dysfunctional (or bent to put it simply) electoral system meant that they were ignored - as the majority of the electorate have been in every General Election since WW2 (and probably long before that but I can't be @rsed to check the numbers before then!).

Next time will be no different, a minority will elect a useless UK government, although we'll probably be calling it the English (Little Britain would probably more apt) government then.