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Hartlepool set to become tory, having been Labour since 1974

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Single constituency opinion polls are notoriously unreliable.

I think it will be fairly close.

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Electoral history is full of seats that change hands at by-elections only to return to "normal" at the next general election. Without a doubt the Tories are getting a massive bonus from the very successful Vaccine roll-out. The public are simply exhausted by lock-down and everything connected to Covid, so Starmer and the Labour Party find themselves in the most invidious situation. However, in three-years time, when all the official inquiries report back on the disastrous Covid response, and scandals over PPE contracts, when the true cost of a bungled brexit deal hits home, then we might be in a better position to assess Labour's true electoral appeal. 

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And that is why they live in a ****hole like Hartlepool. 

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I'm reminded of the play Hamilton when Hamilton endorses Jefferson over Burr despite disagreeing with him on everything:

Quote

 

HAMILTON And if you were to ask me who I’d promote,

Jefferson has my vote. 

have never agreed with Jefferson once. 

We have fought on like seventy-five diff’rent fronts. 

But when all is said and all is done, Jefferson has beliefs. Burr has none.

 

That's the problem with Starmer. What does he stand for other than opposing Boris? If you can't show people that you have a vision, then you're relying on people voting for you against the other guy, and Boris (despite everything) is popular with the common man.

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3 minutes ago, Herman said:

And that is why they live in a ****hole like Hartlepool. 

I've always known the town as 'Hartlepool Nil' 🙃

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53 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Single constituency opinion polls are notoriously unreliable.

I think it will be fairly close.

I am surprised that anyone thought Labour stood a chance in Hartlepool. Still it will give Tories a straw to clasp to in what could be a fairly good night for Labour.

Image

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12 minutes ago, BigFish said:

 Still it will give Tories a straw to clasp to in what could be a fairly good night for Labour.

🤣

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3 minutes ago, Jools said:

🤣

Meanwhile, in the US Biden is making America great again

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1 hour ago, Canary Wundaboy said:

I'm reminded of the play Hamilton when Hamilton endorses Jefferson over Burr despite disagreeing with him on everything:

That's the problem with Starmer. What does he stand for other than opposing Boris? If you can't show people that you have a vision, then you're relying on people voting for you against the other guy, and Boris (despite everything) is popular with the common man.

And what does Boris stand for? Other than the National Anthem, and the opportunity for someone to slip a few notes in his back pocket.

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1 hour ago, Herman said:

And that is why they live in a ****hole like Hartlepool. 

Not sure that makes a great deal of sense seeing as Labour have held this seat ever since it has existed.

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28 minutes ago, king canary said:

Not sure that makes a great deal of sense seeing as Labour have held this seat ever since it has existed.

Have they been in power for the last 11 years? 

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I'm not sure this is the shock that it seems to be being made out to be. Yes, it is viewed as a "safe" Labour seat because of it's history but the 2019 election saw them drop 14.8% of their vote share and the combined weight of Tory and Brexit Party votes made up 54.7% of the votes cast. Brexit is important here, being almost 70% leave at the referendum and that does make the selection of Paul Williams a bit strange given he is a full-on remainer and was in favour of a second referendum. Seems like an own goal to me.

Considering all that, the NIP and the ghost of Corbyn causing division within the Labour party, I think it would be pretty remarkable if they managed to hold the seat. 

How hard the sleaze stuff hits remains to be seen but the Tory Ministers have taken it in turns to flat-bat the press, trivialise matters to being about wallpaper rather than the fundamental dishonesty and the implications of being "indebted" to a donor. We've also seen pubs open, daily COVID deaths down to 1 yesterday, crowds at events and every question being met with some nondescript nonsense about "important issues" and of course, the success of the vaccine rollout. This seems to go largely unchallenged and Kuenssberg has even published a fawning piece on Johnson being a creative genius rather than a bumbling buffoon bereft of integrity who lies with an ease and as naturally as you might expect from a serial adulterer.

All rather depressing. 

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45 minutes ago, Duncan Edwards said:

I'm not sure this is the shock that it seems to be being made out to be. Yes, it is viewed as a "safe" Labour seat because of it's history but the 2019 election saw them drop 14.8% of their vote share and the combined weight of Tory and Brexit Party votes made up 54.7% of the votes cast. Brexit is important here, being almost 70% leave at the referendum and that does make the selection of Paul Williams a bit strange given he is a full-on remainer and was in favour of a second referendum. Seems like an own goal to me.

Considering all that, the NIP and the ghost of Corbyn causing division within the Labour party, I think it would be pretty remarkable if they managed to hold the seat. 

How hard the sleaze stuff hits remains to be seen but the Tory Ministers have taken it in turns to flat-bat the press, trivialise matters to being about wallpaper rather than the fundamental dishonesty and the implications of being "indebted" to a donor. We've also seen pubs open, daily COVID deaths down to 1 yesterday, crowds at events and every question being met with some nondescript nonsense about "important issues" and of course, the success of the vaccine rollout. This seems to go largely unchallenged and Kuenssberg has even published a fawning piece on Johnson being a creative genius rather than a bumbling buffoon bereft of integrity who lies with an ease and as naturally as you might expect from a serial adulterer.

All rather depressing. 

Posted a link on another thread to some reporting from Hartlepool and the bit about candidate selection came up in that too- how can the people of this area feel represented by a Labour candidate who disagrees with them on one of the biggest issues of the day? Was it impossible to find a local candidate who, if not an actual Brexiteer, at least had an attitude on Brexit a bit closer to the population of the seat in question?

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50 minutes ago, Duncan Edwards said:

I'm not sure this is the shock that it seems to be being made out to be. Yes, it is viewed as a "safe" Labour seat because of it's history but the 2019 election saw them drop 14.8% of their vote share and the combined weight of Tory and Brexit Party votes made up 54.7% of the votes cast. Brexit is important here, being almost 70% leave at the referendum and that does make the selection of Paul Williams a bit strange given he is a full-on remainer and was in favour of a second referendum. Seems like an own goal to me.

Considering all that, the NIP and the ghost of Corbyn causing division within the Labour party, I think it would be pretty remarkable if they managed to hold the seat. 

How hard the sleaze stuff hits remains to be seen but the Tory Ministers have taken it in turns to flat-bat the press, trivialise matters to being about wallpaper rather than the fundamental dishonesty and the implications of being "indebted" to a donor. We've also seen pubs open, daily COVID deaths down to 1 yesterday, crowds at events and every question being met with some nondescript nonsense about "important issues" and of course, the success of the vaccine rollout. This seems to go largely unchallenged and Kuenssberg has even published a fawning piece on Johnson being a creative genius rather than a bumbling buffoon bereft of integrity who lies with an ease and as naturally as you might expect from a serial adulterer.

All rather depressing. 

I read that Kuennsberg garbage. How a political correspondent can write several hundred words on the question of whether or not Johnson is a serial liar and somehow avoid mentioning the most obvious piece of evidence for the prosecution, that he has twice been sacked from jobs, including once from a Tory government, for blatant lies, is a bit of a mystery.

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3 minutes ago, PurpleCanary said:

I read that Kuennsberg garbage. How a political correspondent can write several hundred words on the question of whether or not Johnson is a serial liar and somehow avoid mentioning the most obvious piece of evidence for the prosecution, that he has twice been sacked from jobs, including once from a Tory government, for blatant lies, is a bit of a mystery.

Indeed! All "successful" fraudsters have a spark of creative genius that enables them to lie and cheat their way to that "success". Nonetheless fraudsters they remain, and more often than not their fraudulent behaviour eventually leads to their downfall. I look forward to the results of the many inquiries into Johnson's corrupt behaviour.

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3 hours ago, Canary Wundaboy said:

I'm reminded of the play Hamilton when Hamilton endorses Jefferson over Burr despite disagreeing with him on everything:

That's the problem with Starmer. What does he stand for other than opposing Boris? If you can't show people that you have a vision, then you're relying on people voting for you against the other guy, and Boris (despite everything) is popular with the common man.

You obviously don't listen to SKS.

He doesn't ever oppose Boris. He's just like Blair, a wannabe Tory.

 

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I'm afraid we are heading to the wilderness years when complete feckin useless PMs, Blair and Boris can dominate for years because the opposition put up Muppets like SKS, IDS, Hague, Howard.

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9 minutes ago, keelansgrandad said:

I'm afraid we are heading to the wilderness years when complete feckin useless PMs, Blair and Boris can dominate for years because the opposition put up Muppets like SKS, IDS, Hague, Howard.

Blair won 3 elections - Corbyn none.

It must tell you something.

As to Hartlepool - I wouldn't read too much into it. It's too soon. Covid has obscured all political realities let alone economic policies to be for or against and distracted from any Brexit fall-out. Tell me how Johnson has 'helped' Hartlepool so far in any tangible way - nothing positive has happened and the local electorate are still like most non-fishermen brexiteers heavily invested in their nostalgic dream.  They won't be easily shaken awake. The dust still needs to settle. 

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8 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

Blair won 3 elections - Corbyn none.

It must tell you something.

As to Hartlepool - I wouldn't read too much into it. It's too soon. Covid has obscured all political realities let alone economic policies to be for or against and distracted from any Brexit fall-out. Tell me how Johnson has 'helped' Hartlepool so far in any tangible way - nothing positive has happened and the local electorate are still like most non-fishermen brexiteers heavily invested in their nostalgic dream.  They won't be easily shaken awake. The dust still needs to settle. 

Indeed! People of a certain age should remind themselves of the apocalyptic talk of Labour's impending demise in the early eighties. 

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2 minutes ago, horsefly said:

Indeed! People of a certain age should remind themselves of the apocalyptic talk of Labour's impending demise in the early eighties. 

Indeed - history repeats itself - For Corbyn read Foot - both knee jerk reactionaries from a defeat. Labours electoral success was then rebuilt back to the centre left with Kinnock, the sad late Smith to Blair. SKS is doing the same - rebuilding. Doubling down on Corbyn will get them nowhere fast. They need to look credible, a government in waiting that even some centre right Tories would vote for given the sleaze and stench emanating from Johnson.   

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I think that there is an element of having to "take your medicine" for Labour. The effects of Brexit are glossed over and any perceived negativity is firmly dumped at the door of COVID. I think things need to play out more and eventually a realism will set in. However, Labour's task will be made a sight more difficult because of the client journalism that they face. Lies about Freeports and vaccines as justification for Brexit go unchallenged and are waved through. Most people aren't particularly engaged in politics enough to look any further than that and so these things are taken as fact. Unless that changes it's difficult to see anything other than the status quo. 

 

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1 hour ago, Yellow Fever said:

Blair won 3 elections - Corbyn none.

It must tell you something.

As to Hartlepool - I wouldn't read too much into it. It's too soon. Covid has obscured all political realities let alone economic policies to be for or against and distracted from any Brexit fall-out. Tell me how Johnson has 'helped' Hartlepool so far in any tangible way - nothing positive has happened and the local electorate are still like most non-fishermen brexiteers heavily invested in their nostalgic dream.  They won't be easily shaken awake. The dust still needs to settle. 

The UK has moved toward to a centre right nation for the last 20 years. But personally, I don't want Labour moving to the centre. I want it moving left. 

Corbyn did well before and took Tessie to the cleaners many times. And if anyone were to look at his policies rather than just oppose him because he talks to "terrorists" (the same ones that the Royal Family do) despite his association with Sinn Fein politicians was vital for the Good Friday agreement.

The Tory press destroys anyone they think is too left. Its popular. Jeez, the US right wing press calls Biden a lefty! Never mind the policies, its personality, speculation and persecution.

The whole of the UK knows Boris is a serial liar but they are more worried about the ESL than getting properly shafted by an egoist. And that is because, as people become more dependent, as Thatcher well knew, the more right wing they become.

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6 minutes ago, Duncan Edwards said:

I think that there is an element of having to "take your medicine" for Labour. The effects of Brexit are glossed over and any perceived negativity is firmly dumped at the door of COVID. I think things need to play out more and eventually a realism will set in. However, Labour's task will be made a sight more difficult because of the client journalism that they face. Lies about Freeports and vaccines as justification for Brexit go unchallenged and are waved through. Most people aren't particularly engaged in politics enough to look any further than that and so these things are taken as fact. Unless that changes it's difficult to see anything other than the status quo. 

 

Yes - It difficult to really sweep away the aftertaste of Corbyn, engage in new exciting policies or even Brexit when everybody is concentrating on Covid - metaphorically it's difficult to remember your primary objective is to drain the (Tory) swamp when you're knee deep in alligators 

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2 minutes ago, keelansgrandad said:

The UK has moved toward to a centre right nation for the last 20 years. But personally, I don't want Labour moving to the centre. I want it moving left. 

Corbyn did well before and took Tessie to the cleaners many times. And if anyone were to look at his policies rather than just oppose him because he talks to "terrorists" (the same ones that the Royal Family do) despite his association with Sinn Fein politicians was vital for the Good Friday agreement.

The Tory press destroys anyone they think is too left. Its popular. Jeez, the US right wing press calls Biden a lefty! Never mind the policies, its personality, speculation and persecution.

The whole of the UK knows Boris is a serial liar but they are more worried about the ESL than getting properly shafted by an egoist. And that is because, as people become more dependent, as Thatcher well knew, the more right wing they become.

Yes KG - As I said many of his economic policies where actually popular. However it was the unnecessary baggage that went with him that did for him. His unworldly 'CND' (unarmed subs) and similar always looking to blame or finding fault at home as opposed to calling a spade a spade (Skripal) - and frankly the lefts endless obsession with Blair's Iraq failing.

Frankly the Corbyn left do their very best it seems to be unelectable and hence they are and should remain just a pressure group and no more.

If you want to change the world you need to appeal to people and not just your own narrow tribe.

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Just now, Yellow Fever said:

Yes KG - As I said many of his economic policies where actually popular. However it was the unnecessary baggage that went with him that did for him. His unworldly 'CND' (unarmed subs) and similar always looking to blame or finding fault at home as opposed to calling a spade a spade (Skripal) - and frankly the lefts endless obsession with Blair's Iraq failing.

Frankly the Corbyn left do their very best it seems to be unelectable and hence they are and should remain just a pressure group and no more.

If you want to change the world you need to appeal to people and not just your own narrow tribe.

Momentum were the culprits not Corbyn. He needed their backing to beat Yvette Cooper. And he paid for it for the rest of his duration. He was pushed into areas which erupted with the stupid Brexit policy.

Where the Tory party succeeds is they are not bound by their membership or Conference decisions. Corbyn was scared of a backlash. That is why Kinnock eventually folded. He brought the Party and Nation into respecting him for standing up to Militant. But then it went to his head and his appearance at the next conference was like he was Austin Powers.

Corbyn should have moved away from Momentum and its middle class apologists.

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