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king canary

The market this summer...

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There was an interesting Athletic piece this week where they'd spoken to a number of Premier League figures about what the market may hold this summer. The TL;DR version is this...

  • Even big clubs focused on loan deals over permanent
  • Certain foreign leagues in big trouble with teams needing to sell and slash wage bills that will throw up some bargains
  • Clubs realise the market is depressed and players who they wants £15m for last season may be allowed to leave for £5/6m
  • Players similarly are adjusting expectations - so those who might ask for £80k p/w may now take £40/50k.
  • Huge focus on value now- so players with only a year left on their current deals could have a big market (Todd?)
  • New WP rules will force some clubs to switch approach (us and Brentford name checked specifically but we already knew this).

The most interesting quote was an exec claiming 'the Championship is finished' as nobody has as money, everyone needs to sell and they expect the 3 teams that go down to bounce back most years due to the financial advantage.

For us it feels slightly like the stars are aligning to give us a real shot to improve the squad this season. We've ridden out covid looking pretty healthy financially and the current situation may drive players who would have been hugely out of budget two years ago into the realms of possiblity.

From a selling standpoint, it does seem like everyone expects clubs to be much more cautious- so will the market that we all expect for Emi or Max actually develop? And if not will those players be looking to push moves through at a lower price, or does it mean we can keep most of our key assets?

You'd imagine Webber and co will be looking to potentially exploit the issues in places like France but also it may be the year to do some shopping in the Championship to increase the homegrown contingent.

All in all it could be an interesting summer.

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It is an interesting topic, because I can’t see most teams going big with spending and likewise a lot of contracts may be allowed to expire in order for some clubs to reduce wage bills. We know Webber is very savvy to a bargain, I am excited to see what cards he has up his sleeve for this window now our premier league status is confirmed, could be an exciting couple of months. Even Farke has changed his tune in recent weeks to say we should have a bit of money to invest. Now let’s win that title to get the transfers kitty up a bit higher!

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Hopefuly the fruit and veg will be a decent price, I know the imports will be quite expensive given the current political climate and all

 

... Wait what are we talking about?

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It is a depressing picture, being relegated is not as big a problem as it has been, there is a real issue with the finances all the way through the football structure.  Having seen the big boys try to take a bigger slice of the pie, I wonder how many professional clubs there will be in a few years time,

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5 minutes ago, Newtopia said:

It is a depressing picture, being relegated is not as big a problem as it has been, there is a real issue with the finances all the way through the football structure.  Having seen the big boys try to take a bigger slice of the pie, I wonder how many professional clubs there will be in a few years time,

I guess there are two ways it can go.

1) Players and agents realise the bubble has burst and expectations for wages are reduced due to clubs not having the money to pay for it. Over the next few years we see football find a new baseline with transfers and wage demands, how much lower only time will tell but everyone adjusts and things continue. 

2) Club's, players and agents continue as if nothing has changed and more clubs go into administration possibly have to dissolve and come back as a phoenix club in the national league. This could happen to several clubs across the EFL - it may give more opportunities for national league clubs who already have to cut their cloth more carefully in the realms of the EFL.

In a way, the direct result of both is actually that the English EFL may become less attractive to players from abroad if there are other leagues that can often as good or better wages etc. How much this will impact upon the Premier League will be what to watch. It will further evidence that there is no real trickledown of the money like was originally claimed.

What I will say is that this was all somewhat inevitable. There is a ceiling to everything. We have seen players sold for more than £100mil. We have heard players at some clubs are being paid as much as £300k+ per week.

You hear the argument that footballers have short careers so they should be paid more... but that always irks with me. How many of us would love to play football, or to have played football, for the wages we got in that period of our lives? There are many careers that you cannot have for your entire working life. In reality, very few people remain in the same career for the entirety of their working life anymore. It is very common to have at least one career change in your life now. Earning enough to not have to worry about working ever again at age 35 is an absolute luxury.

I have little sympathy in that regard. It's just a shame that the big clubs won't get the same wake up call and will most likely just cement their position at the top of the premier league.

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not really got a problem with the players taking big wages since they are the ones providing the product. The problem is the people willing to spend irresponsibly to do so through unethical means.

Seems like we have timed this promotion well. A couple of prem standard players from overseas and maybe a loan or 2 and we'll have a competitive squad without crippling ourselves if relegation happens again. It's all a sad state of affairs but I'm grateful we're the right side of the tide

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Posted (edited)

The big advantage to us of the financial crisis is that there may be little point in selling Emi and Todd. Whether they'll be so keen to stay is another matter altogether.

Brace yourselves for a £10m bid for Emi from Liverpool.

Edited by dylanisabaddog

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Posted (edited)
10 hours ago, king canary said:

There was an interesting Athletic piece this week

Do you have a link (or title)?

Sorry KC - found it 👍

Edited by Badger
Added last sentence

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I am more optimistic we can keep all our assets for next season.  Imo we are unlikely to get bids for our talented players that would match our club's valuations for them - and also our stars will be less likely to want away because they have the holy grail of Premier league status where they are.  Bodes well for next season imo, Cantwell and Buendia having had the extra year to mature and look more likely to be ready for the PL this time, Aarons too.

Talk of things aligning is right imo - a young team maturing into a very strong team, with more youngsters in the background to come through, no financial pressure to sell and a superb set up on and off the field.

 

 

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29 minutes ago, Badger said:

Do you have a link (or title)?

Sorry KC - found it 👍

I try not to link to the Athletic on here, you end up with people either complaining about the paywall or asking you to copy and paste it for them. I think someone accused me of being on their payroll once...

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11 hours ago, king canary said:

There was an interesting Athletic piece this week where they'd spoken to a number of Premier League figures about what the market may hold this summer. The TL;DR version is this...

  • Even big clubs focused on loan deals over permanent
  • Certain foreign leagues in big trouble with teams needing to sell and slash wage bills that will throw up some bargains
  • Clubs realise the market is depressed and players who they wants £15m for last season may be allowed to leave for £5/6m
  • Players similarly are adjusting expectations - so those who might ask for £80k p/w may now take £40/50k.
  • Huge focus on value now- so players with only a year left on their current deals could have a big market (Todd?)
  • New WP rules will force some clubs to switch approach (us and Brentford name checked specifically but we already knew this).

The most interesting quote was an exec claiming 'the Championship is finished' as nobody has as money, everyone needs to sell and they expect the 3 teams that go down to bounce back most years due to the financial advantage.

For us it feels slightly like the stars are aligning to give us a real shot to improve the squad this season. We've ridden out covid looking pretty healthy financially and the current situation may drive players who would have been hugely out of budget two years ago into the realms of possiblity.

From a selling standpoint, it does seem like everyone expects clubs to be much more cautious- so will the market that we all expect for Emi or Max actually develop? And if not will those players be looking to push moves through at a lower price, or does it mean we can keep most of our key assets?

You'd imagine Webber and co will be looking to potentially exploit the issues in places like France but also it may be the year to do some shopping in the Championship to increase the homegrown contingent.

All in all it could be an interesting summer.

Thanks for sharing this Michael.

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8 hours ago, Tetteys Jig said:

not really got a problem with the players taking big wages since they are the ones providing the product. The problem is the people willing to spend irresponsibly to do so through unethical means.

Seems like we have timed this promotion well. A couple of prem standard players from overseas and maybe a loan or 2 and we'll have a competitive squad without crippling ourselves if relegation happens again. It's all a sad state of affairs but I'm grateful we're the right side of the tide

I don't in general but those wages need to be proportional to the amount of money the 'product' creates and due to the financial arms race football finds itself in now, that doesn't really apply for anyone outside of the top flight. 

I am hoping that covid and similar may be the reckoning football needs to get its house in order wage wise- it shouldn't be difficult for football clubs to be self sustaining and turn a small profit when you consider the amount of revenue they can generate. 

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Posted (edited)

The market may be depressed for transfer fees, but if you're thinking a ten million bid for emi from a club like Liverpool with his wages doubled wouldn't be enough for him to demand the move then you're delusional. 

Ultimately this suits bigger clubs more, as they have the pulling power and wage structure to hoover up bargains, with the lower clubs needing to sell. 

 

 

Edited by Wrathofthefarkely

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1 hour ago, king canary said:

I am hoping that covid and similar may be the reckoning football needs to get its house in order wage wise- it shouldn't be difficult for football clubs to be self sustaining and turn a small profit when you consider the amount of revenue they can generate. 

It has never been difficult to be sustainable, but nearly every club has gone along with an "emperor's new clothes delusion". Fans, pundits etc have always talked about the need to "invest" to prosper and survive. However, with everybody spending to the maximum, it becomes necessary to spend more, and then even more just to stand still, leaving clubs with bloated payrolls of players on hundreds of thousands a year and not even near the first team (we still have plenty - Drmic, Leitner etc, who presumably will be on Premiership wages next year, so even harder to shift).

It is a classic case of "demand-pull" inflation and a bubble waiting to burst.

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10 hours ago, Tetteys Jig said:

not really got a problem with the players taking big wages since they are the ones providing the product. The problem is the people willing to spend irresponsibly to do so through unethical means.

Seems like we have timed this promotion well. A couple of prem standard players from overseas and maybe a loan or 2 and we'll have a competitive squad without crippling ourselves if relegation happens again. It's all a sad state of affairs but I'm grateful we're the right side of the tide

I think there is a difference between "big wages" and wages that represent everyone else having to win the lottery. I get that it generates a lot of money in some cases, and they are part of that. There still needs to be some acceptance that the end result is players being removed further from the fanbase.

One also has to consider the incredibly negative impact this as actually had on football as a whole. Not just on individual players but on the damage it has done to relationships with fans, the clubs that have been left in the wind, local businesses that have been hit due to clubs being poorly run etc. High time that much more stringent insurances are put in place. The "fit and proper" tests are clearly a joke, so many examples over recent years to underline how they are not working - Wigan for example.

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3 hours ago, king canary said:

I try not to link to the Athletic on here, you end up with people either complaining about the paywall or asking you to copy and paste it for them. I think someone accused me of being on their payroll once...

Snap. 

People are allowed to mention that we are live on Sky Sports, and generally get thanked.

Mention something Michael Bailey wrote on The Athletic and the place goes into meltdown as we're not allowed to talk about paid content.

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Perhaps some people on here will start to think that Delia and Michael got it right after all.

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3 hours ago, lake district canary said:

I am more optimistic we can keep all our assets for next season.  Imo we are unlikely to get bids for our talented players that would match our club's valuations for them - and also our stars will be less likely to want away because they have the holy grail of Premier league status where they are.  Bodes well for next season imo, Cantwell and Buendia having had the extra year to mature and look more likely to be ready for the PL this time, Aarons too.

Talk of things aligning is right imo - a young team maturing into a very strong team, with more youngsters in the background to come through, no financial pressure to sell and a superb set up on and off the field.

 

 

main one I can see is Aarons to Everton as Colemans long term replacement for £30m.

I'd call that pretty sensible business on their part since he could be their starting right back for the next decade.

Everton are pretty sound financially so can afford it without much risk and he'd fit in to that side really well and give his England chances a boost.

If they believe he has champions league potential then its a sensible buy.

Buendia strikes me as someone for one of the even bigger sides as a bit of a sink or swim quick fix. That purely depends on if anyone is prepared to fork out £40m+ and believe in him enough to hit the ground running. Now we are up, I don't think we'd need to let him go if the money doesn't come as he'll happily give the prem another go with us until at least Jan

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1 hour ago, chicken said:

I think there is a difference between "big wages" and wages that represent everyone else having to win the lottery. I get that it generates a lot of money in some cases, and they are part of that. There still needs to be some acceptance that the end result is players being removed further from the fanbase.

One also has to consider the incredibly negative impact this as actually had on football as a whole. Not just on individual players but on the damage it has done to relationships with fans, the clubs that have been left in the wind, local businesses that have been hit due to clubs being poorly run etc. High time that much more stringent insurances are put in place. The "fit and proper" tests are clearly a joke, so many examples over recent years to underline how they are not working - Wigan for example.

There is a fundamental difference between ‘a Beckham’ or ‘a Messi’ taking home a million pounds a week and somebody half as good - or half as valuable - taking home half a million pounds a week. 

Parma 

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5 minutes ago, Parma Ham's gone mouldy said:

There is a fundamental difference between ‘a Beckham’ or ‘a Messi’ taking home a million pounds a week and somebody half as good - or half as valuable - taking home half a million pounds a week. 

Parma 

Indeed.

There's only one Messi or Beckham. There are probably hundreds half as good. Hundreds of half a millions...

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5 minutes ago, Parma Ham's gone mouldy said:

There is a fundamental difference between ‘a Beckham’ or ‘a Messi’ taking home a million pounds a week and somebody half as good - or half as valuable - taking home half a million pounds a week. 

Parma 

The likes of Beckham and Messi get their money through endorsements etc, that is outside the realms of wages in many ways.

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1 hour ago, pearsos said:

Perhaps some people on here will start to think that Delia and Michael got it right after all.

I did already!

 

16 minutes ago, Parma Ham's gone mouldy said:

There is a fundamental difference between ‘a Beckham’ or ‘a Messi’ taking home a million pounds a week and somebody half as good - or half as valuable - taking home half a million pounds a week. 

Parma 

I agree; the correlation between wages and ability is not a linear scale. A relatively small percentage increase in ability results in a large increase in wages.

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Even recently before the ESL fiasco, there has been talk of wage caps. But unless this is something that is agreed by the top leagues in Europe at least, it won't be successful.

There has been talks, I believe, in principle of this happening in Legaues 1 and 2. But I'm not sure how that will work if it means Championship and Premier League teams can still do what they want and essentially attract those players in those leagues more easily due to being able to offer better wages.

Wages don't equate to ability at all, as we have learnt to our detriment with Naismith etc.

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47 minutes ago, Parma Ham's gone mouldy said:

There is a fundamental difference between ‘a Beckham’ or ‘a Messi’ taking home a million pounds a week and somebody half as good - or half as valuable - taking home half a million pounds a week. 

Parma 

Yeah you see this in American football- quarterbacks are so important that they are worth paying $40m a year to while many other excellent players can't justify even half of that because they are jusst less valuable to the team overall, despite their level of skill.

In football though you do still have this idea that if you bring in one player on larger wages you're inevitably going to cause envy and division in the ranks- so for us if we wanted to pay Emi £50k a week as we see him irreplaceable it would likely lead to players like McLean or Hanley who start week in week out demanding a raise too.

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2 hours ago, Wacky Waving Inflatable Arm Flailing Tube Man said:

Snap. 

People are allowed to mention that we are live on Sky Sports, and generally get thanked.

Mention something Michael Bailey wrote on The Athletic and the place goes into meltdown as we're not allowed to talk about paid content.

Completely agree, and there's no knocking that Bailey is a good sports journalist too. It's a shame he left I get that, but he's continued to produce arguably even better content since doing so. In any case, this thread was never intended to promote Bailey or anything, it was to discuss something relevant to the club. It's a shame so many good threads on here get derailed by toxic stupidity 

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7 minutes ago, AJ said:

In any case, this thread was never intended to promote Bailey or anything, it was to discuss something relevant to the club.

I know it's off-topic but I was very sceptical about the Athletic, but they gave a very cheap deal and I thought I'd give it a go and have been very impressed: definitely more informative than the "ordinary" media. Not sure that I will pay full price for it though. (I don't know what that is?)

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1 minute ago, Badger said:

I know it's off-topic but I was very sceptical about the Athletic, but they gave a very cheap deal and I thought I'd give it a go and have been very impressed: definitely more informative than the "ordinary" media. Not sure that I will pay full price for it though. (I don't know what that is?)

£5 a month is the full price. I'd pay that to be honest, but when my half price 12-month offer runs out I'll probably cancel and wait for them to offer me a new deal...

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28 minutes ago, Badger said:

I know it's off-topic but I was very sceptical about the Athletic, but they gave a very cheap deal and I thought I'd give it a go and have been very impressed: definitely more informative than the "ordinary" media. Not sure that I will pay full price for it though. (I don't know what that is?)

It hugely helps if you've got an interest in other sports they cover- I'm an NFL fan so get quite a lot out of that part of it too.

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Get Cantwell signed to a new contract with a promise to give him a move next summer relegation or not.  I cannot see Cantwell getting a move this Summer.  So if he has a successful PL campaign will leave next Summer for nothing.  However it is not a given he will pull up any trees in the PL, a more lucrative contract may be appealing to Todd.  The contract should reflect the value of a PL standard contract.     

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2 hours ago, Wacky Waving Inflatable Arm Flailing Tube Man said:

£5 a month is the full price. I'd pay that to be honest, but when my half price 12-month offer runs out I'll probably cancel and wait for them to offer me a new deal...

Yes, that's a good idea. I'll probably do the same (if I remember to cancel the direct debit, which is often a problem 🤦‍♂️)

1 hour ago, king canary said:

It hugely helps if you've got an interest in other sports they cover- I'm an NFL fan so get quite a lot out of that part of it too.

I'm a big cricket fan, but unfortunately they don't cover it - in fact I don't think anybody does outside of test matches 😟 Other than Football, I don't really like their other sports.

I have been surprised at how much I look at their reports on other sides, tbh, as I feel they go below the surface more than the newspapers. 

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