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Jim Smith

A vivid illustration of where we still need to improve

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57 minutes ago, NCFC198 said:

Quite a lot of room for improvement to survive in the Prem.  Id say as follows:

Need a second choice Keeper

Need a second choice LB (possibly RB too)

A CB of at least the standard of Gibson & Hanley

We will need to play 2x holding midfielders - so 2x players of Skipps quality  - a tough ask. 

A winger as Hernadez and Platcheta are not up to it.  

Competition at 10 and a second chice striker. 

 

To go:  

Nyland, Quintilla, Zimm (not good enough anymore), Vrancic (contract), Stiepermann (?), Tettey (contract, although id keep him around). 

1) Nyland - Premiership quality/experienced keeper, no problem.

2) Dimi will sign which gives us McCallum, Mumba and possibly Byram, not too worried here

3) CB - yes, we do need another although our yoof isn't look half bad, is he? I'd still like us to sign someone experienced though as I love Zimm but his recent injuries would make me a bit wary.

4) Yep, if we can't sign Skipp then we need to swallow pride and spend some money on a really decent DM or two, how I'd love us to get Skipp back though, he deserves a full season rather than playing second/third/fourth fiddle at Spurs if they aren't going to play him.

5) Placheta and Hernandez definitely have things to offer, and Placheta especially being quite young still has time to improve, but yes, we need someone who can play at the level of Buendia and Cantwell should either be unavailable, big ask without much money to spend for this position I would say.

6) Yep, we need a decent striker. I'd like to see Idah go out and play week in week out in the championship next season, which means we need someone up to Pukki's level to compete with him and Hugill, again, a big ask without a huge budget to spend.

 

On those to leave, disagree with Nyland, he has premiership quality and should be kept. I think we should also keep Stiepi if he can prove his fitness (We don't see training, but I feel he has a lot to offer still if he can get going again). I would imagine both Vrancic and Tettey could go either way, both might get an extra year, it's clear Tettey wants to do his coaching and is well loved by the club and in the dressing room, plus he's handy to throw on for the last 15/20 to shore up the midfield. Zimm will still be here, but I think with his injuries it'll be worth getting in another CB but that might depend on if we loan out the yoof or integrate him into the Premiership squad for next season

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2 hours ago, chicken said:

Sorry but I strongly disagree. Bournemouth did not get relegated playing a physical brand of football. Howe was much more progressive than that and they tried to play football on the deck, which is exactly why the BBC and others were going on about them non-stop.

As noted on the day elsewhere. The Bournemouth starting 11 cost over £100mil. I say over, I got to £100mil and then couldn't find the fee for Pearson. So 10 of their starting 11 cost £100mil to assemble. That's minimum three times the cost of our entire match day squad on Saturday including fees we haven't yet paid for Giannoulis.

Since Howe left and even more so after his successor, they have become more physical. Woodgate doesn't seem to be as progressive a manager and was audibly encouraging his players to be more physical and crunch our players.

In reality, over recent seasons, teams that have tried to survive in the premier league using that as a primary tactic have struggled. Stoke, Blackburn, Bolton, Cardiff etc. Equally, those that have persisted with that have also struggled to bounce back up. In fact, look at he top 6 of the Championship and even the bottom half of the Premier League as you suggest. How many can you truly say play a "physical" brand of football?

I'm not talking about defensive tactics a la Bruce at Newcastle - they will often try to play on the deck especially when they have Wilson and Saint-Maximin etc playing.

Prem:
10 - Leeds
11 - Aston Villa
12 - Wolves
13 - Palace
14 - Southampton
15 - Newcastle
16 - Brighton
17 - Burnley
18 - Fulham
19 - West Brom
20 - Shef Utd

So out of those ten teams, which teams rely on a physical approach to games? I think the only sides you can accuse of doing that are Burnley, West Brom and Shef Utd. You might make a case for Palace but I think that's a bit unfair as they certainly try to play football, again, I see them as being more defensively minded like Newcastle rather than relying on the sort of thuggish smash and grab route one physical football we see from the likes of Allardice and Dyche teams were they will try and get it forward to a target man ASAP and try to play from there. You certainly can't say Fulham, Brighton, Southampton or Wolves play that way at all, not even close and even Leeds... Bamford is hardly the epitome of a thuggish centre forward is he?

Physicality is part of every game, and we have won games this season that have been far more physical. A large percentage of the physical side of the game is mental. If you want it more, you can beat anyone.

I played with a chap who was tiny in a London league in my early-mid 20's. He was born premature and size and weight wise was rarely going to be an even match physically for 90% of the midfielders and defenders he would be up against. I reckon he would have been 5'6"/5'7". I have never seen someone so small physically spin defenders the way he did. He'd set his feet in a flash and roll his shoulders, several 6'+ chaps were left unbalanced and on the floor because of the speed he could set his centre of gravity and almost flick them aside. He wasn't scared of a tackle either.

Equally, back in Norfolk, I played with a teacher who would have been a similar height. He did more or less exactly the same thing, but in the air...

I don't think there is really a debate in it, people are just looking into this far, far, far too much. And it's not particularly healthy. Folks are just forgetting simple probability. We cannot go on forever unbeaten. We had put together a tremendous run of results, unbeaten in god knows how many. It felt to me that our celebrations were an expression of relief more than anything else. There has been no let up, many haven't had a break since the start of the season barring injuries they have had, and even then Pukki was rushed back before he was really ready due to Hugill being injured.

Folks just need to stop over analysing it all and realise that even in the Championship, we are going to be beaten every so often, expecting an unbeaten run of 14-18 games is just insane, at any level. The fact that we had gone unbeaten in 13 prior to Bournemouth was always going to go against us, not for us. We'd managed games well, got goals and then passed the ball around without stepping up into higher gears.

Lastly, if we should be worried about results against Bournemouth and Watford, and I don't think there is any real need to get unreasonably so and try to find more reasons for those results to mean anything, what does that say for Bournemouth and Watford who have lost to worse sides than us and more times? At one point Bournemouth had dropped out of the top six altogether.

Reading too much into it. Two games in four days, celebrating promotion, red card, sigh of relief. I expect a Farke style response Vs QPR. Not worried about the Premier League as there is a summer ahead yet. 

I'm not saying these teams play hoofball or like old school wimbledon but what they have is a lot of pace out wide, very strong defences and physically strong and athletic players more or less across the park. And they are streetwise. And this applies to most of the teams in the bottom two thirds of the premier league. Even up to Villa and Leeds teams built primarily on pace and power.

I'm not worried about the results. i'm saying that the manner of the performances show us how and where we need to make improvements. For example, the only quick wingers we have have absolutely zero end product. That needs to be addressed so we can play effectively on the counter. 

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2 hours ago, chicken said:

...

Physicality is part of every game, and we have won games this season that have been far more physical. A large percentage of the physical side of the game is mental. If you want it more, you can beat anyone.

 

Short term an inferior team can catch another by suprise and mentally demolish them. It has a lot to do with neurotransmitters. Once your dopamine levels are higher than your opponent ("confidence") and theirs is down, they are quite literally moving 5% slower, 5% weaker etc. It's neuroscience. No actual laws of physics are breached. And thats' the problem with the rather romantic view of the all-conquering power of will; In the end gravity always wins. Cognition and psychology is mean reverting, and long term quantitative factors dominate. Can't bluff our way through whole season. Think what happened after the glorious ManC game...

Norwich has improved a lot both physically and mentally. Right things have been done. More work to do. We're going up with two teams we aren't beating with this squad.

Edited by Upo

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6 hours ago, Upo said:

 

Short term an inferior team can catch another by suprise and mentally demolish them. It has a lot to do with neurotransmitters. Once your dopamine levels are higher than your opponent ("confidence") and theirs is down, they are quite literally moving 5% slower, 5% weaker etc. It's neuroscience. No actual laws of physics are breached. And thats' the problem with the rather romantic view of the all-conquering power of will; In the end gravity always wins. Cognition and psychology is mean reverting, and long term quantitative factors dominate. Can't bluff our way through whole season. Think what happened after the glorious ManC game...

Norwich has improved a lot both physically and mentally. Right things have been done. More work to do. We're going up with two teams we aren't beating with this squad.

The main problem with your statement is that it suggests that we have been more physical, better playing etc in every game bar the 7 we have lost this season - but then you also have to factor in the "off days" when lesser teams will find that 5% to face us, perhaps on a day when our standards have dropped enough for that to make a difference.

I think the reality is despite being far from our best, Watford only beat us 1-0. With 11 men on the pitch, Bournemouth were desperately trying to just tread water.

Those off days happen.

People are reading far too much into it.

As for where people are talking about improving the team and further evidence for it - also throw away comments really. By that I mean we haven't learned anything we didn't already know about our squad in the last two games that we didn't know already. Mainly because Farke and Webber said it last season and before signings last summer.

We have added height, physicality and pace to our team. Do we need more? Of course. That will mean that some fans favourites will go. Farke has said that Vrancic doesn't have the legs to get up and down the pitch anymore. He's not wrong. Trybul struggled with this due to a lack of pace too, and arguably was just not quite physical enough either, though certainly not a rubbish player.

The difficulty here is that we are operating in the Championship. The players that Watford and Bournemouth poses that are premier league quality, were signed mainly whilst they were in the Premier League.

Sarr, for example, is believed to have cost Watford in the region of £30mil. We can't sign £30mil players even when we are in the prem, but even Watford would struggle to sign him in the Championship. In comparison, our match day squad Vs Watford was worth less than £30mil.

And as I have said before, despite that, despite both Watford and Bournemouth having a wealth of riches beyond pretty much every club in the Championship, what do they have to show for it? Consistency not to the level of our own. Until fairly recently, Bournemouth looked like they would miss out on the top 6 altogether.

And are they streaks ahead of us? No. All that money and what? Watford got a 1-0 win against a seriously jaded side. Bournemouth were well off the pace until the red card, and even then it took until the 2nd half for them to find their feet.

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9 hours ago, Jim Smith said:

I'm not saying these teams play hoofball or like old school wimbledon but what they have is a lot of pace out wide, very strong defences and physically strong and athletic players more or less across the park. And they are streetwise. And this applies to most of the teams in the bottom two thirds of the premier league. Even up to Villa and Leeds teams built primarily on pace and power.

I'm not worried about the results. i'm saying that the manner of the performances show us how and where we need to make improvements. For example, the only quick wingers we have have absolutely zero end product. That needs to be addressed so we can play effectively on the counter. 

It's a conversation worth having. Last time we won the title very few people predicted that we'd finish 20th; this time around I think people are rightly being a bit more sanguine. We definitely need to add a bit of physicality throughout the side, but also I wouldn't want us to stray too far from the principles that got us up there.

As for the winger situation, Onel's an impact player at best at PL level (although he was one of the few who showed any form towards the end of last season). Placheta looks out of his depth just now, but you don't get players with his kind of weapons for that price if they're the finished article. I have a feeling he might be the one that improves beyond all recognition and expectation, in the way that Todd did last season; we'll play against more teams with a higher line who play on the front foot, and consequently there will be more opportunities for him to use that pace in behind on the counter-attack. Adama Traoré had no end product until Espirito Santo took him under his wing, and look at him now.

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2 hours ago, chicken said:

The main problem with your statement is that it suggests that we have been more physical, better playing etc in every game bar the 7 we have lost this season - but then you also have to factor in the "off days" when lesser teams will find that 5% to face us, perhaps on a day when our standards have dropped enough for that to make a difference.

I think the reality is despite being far from our best, Watford only beat us 1-0. With 11 men on the pitch, Bournemouth were desperately trying to just tread water.

Those off days happen.

People are reading far too much into it.

As for where people are talking about improving the team and further evidence for it - also throw away comments really. By that I mean we haven't learned anything we didn't already know about our squad in the last two games that we didn't know already. Mainly because Farke and Webber said it last season and before signings last summer.

We have added height, physicality and pace to our team. Do we need more? Of course. That will mean that some fans favourites will go. Farke has said that Vrancic doesn't have the legs to get up and down the pitch anymore. He's not wrong. Trybul struggled with this due to a lack of pace too, and arguably was just not quite physical enough either, though certainly not a rubbish player.

The difficulty here is that we are operating in the Championship. The players that Watford and Bournemouth poses that are premier league quality, were signed mainly whilst they were in the Premier League.

Sarr, for example, is believed to have cost Watford in the region of £30mil. We can't sign £30mil players even when we are in the prem, but even Watford would struggle to sign him in the Championship. In comparison, our match day squad Vs Watford was worth less than £30mil.

And as I have said before, despite that, despite both Watford and Bournemouth having a wealth of riches beyond pretty much every club in the Championship, what do they have to show for it? Consistency not to the level of our own. Until fairly recently, Bournemouth looked like they would miss out on the top 6 altogether.

And are they streaks ahead of us? No. All that money and what? Watford got a 1-0 win against a seriously jaded side. Bournemouth were well off the pace until the red card, and even then it took until the 2nd half for them to find their feet.

You, sir, are a poster I regularly look out for, not only do you offer insightful opinions but you come across as offering well balanced opinions. So thanks! (Which we don’t do enough of)

Because for the most part, I don’t do enough research, and can only offer very basic viewpoints from a fairly ill-informed, highlight-centric mind... 🙂

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On 20/04/2021 at 21:26, Jim Smith said:

I’m chuffed we’ve been promoted but I can’t say the two defeats since haven’t slightly taken the gloss off it. More so tonight because it wasn’t due to a red card but more due to the fact that once again Watford were just a bit too physical for us and this able to negate our extra skill and technical ability.

the way they play is the template for lower two thirds premier league sides and the way they and  Bournemouth have taken points off us this season should ring alarm bells for Webber and Farke. Webber flagged our lack of physicality/athleticism as a point to address after relegation and we still have sone work to do to address it. We need more pace in the squad and in particular a more physical option in central midfield. 

Hi there

As a Watford fan I think the difference was more about us working hard and pressing you than the 'physicality' of our players.

Hughes, Sarr and Pedro are all technically very good. So is Femenia who was suspended.

Yes you've consistently played 'better' football all season but it was intensity plus skill that did for you on the night, and not letting you get into a rhythm.

I do accept if you had more riding on the game you'd have been more up for it. Also that you had some defenders out.

We respected what Buendia could do and tried to stop him. You didn't really do the same for Sarr.

Hanley looks one heck of a good player on that showing though.

Good luck in the Prem!

 

Edited by SuperTM
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On 21/04/2021 at 19:53, chicken said:

The main problem with your statement is that it suggests that we have been more physical, better playing etc in every game bar the 7 we have lost this season - but then you also have to factor in the "off days" when lesser teams will find that 5% to face us, perhaps on a day when our standards have dropped enough for that to make a difference.

I think the reality is despite being far from our best, Watford only beat us 1-0. With 11 men on the pitch, Bournemouth were desperately trying to just tread water.

Those off days happen.

People are reading far too much into it.

As for where people are talking about improving the team and further evidence for it - also throw away comments really. By that I mean we haven't learned anything we didn't already know about our squad in the last two games that we didn't know already. Mainly because Farke and Webber said it last season and before signings last summer.

We have added height, physicality and pace to our team. Do we need more? Of course. That will mean that some fans favourites will go. Farke has said that Vrancic doesn't have the legs to get up and down the pitch anymore. He's not wrong. Trybul struggled with this due to a lack of pace too, and arguably was just not quite physical enough either, though certainly not a rubbish player.

The difficulty here is that we are operating in the Championship. The players that Watford and Bournemouth poses that are premier league quality, were signed mainly whilst they were in the Premier League.

Sarr, for example, is believed to have cost Watford in the region of £30mil. We can't sign £30mil players even when we are in the prem, but even Watford would struggle to sign him in the Championship. In comparison, our match day squad Vs Watford was worth less than £30mil.

And as I have said before, despite that, despite both Watford and Bournemouth having a wealth of riches beyond pretty much every club in the Championship, what do they have to show for it? Consistency not to the level of our own. Until fairly recently, Bournemouth looked like they would miss out on the top 6 altogether.

And are they streaks ahead of us? No. All that money and what? Watford got a 1-0 win against a seriously jaded side. Bournemouth were well off the pace until the red card, and even then it took until the 2nd half for them to find their feet.

Some good points here.

Yes Watford (my team) spent big on Sarr. We'd been 4 years in the prem to allow this, and made decent money selling on players like Richarlison. The plan will still be to sell him on for a profit at some point.

But Watford fans will tell you we've underinvested in defence and centre forward for the last 3-4 years. 

This season I think with the possible exception of Gosling, none of our incoming players have cost anything. Sanchez, Sierralta, Ngakia, Zinckernagel were all on frees.

We've had to sell Doucoure, Capoue, Deulofeu, Pereyra etc. and we are still in a big financial hole paying big wages to Deeney and Gray who've added very little and who we couldn't sell. 

If and when we go up it will be huge for us; without promotion we'd be selling our decent players and facing who knows how long in the Championship. 

The Norwich model appears more sustainable but doesn't always seem to give you a great chance of staying up.

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There is a lot of sense being posted on this thread with little polarisation........ which is why I don't normally get too involved in discussion of the relativities of this and that as so many poster are very one sided, hyper critical  or hyper defensive. 

I think Super TM is taking a lot of sense, I hadn't realised until another Watford  fan listed them, just how many quality players they'd lost/ sold. Another interesting Fact that was mentioned during  the match commentary , was that  since Xisco took over they had achieved 48 pts, us 47, that of course is now 51 to 47, if they pip us at the post, then they deserve  it, no question. They have come on like a steam train  this last few months.  And no we didn't give Sarr enough attention  , even when it was clear he had Quintilla exactly where he wanted him. 

Going back to the OP, there are no secrets to what we are doing, we are effectively trading our way up, slowly improving our squad as and when we can, not at the flick of a chequebook, so all this will take time. What I doubt we'll sacrifice is technical  ability  in favour of pace and power, we will be seeking players with equal or greater  ability but with a little more pace and power...anyone remember  'marginal gains ' ... that's the game  we're playing.

When we are good, we're very very good, but when we're bad....we're  awful.  

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On 23/04/2021 at 10:55, SuperTM said:

Some good points here.

Yes Watford (my team) spent big on Sarr. We'd been 4 years in the prem to allow this, and made decent money selling on players like Richarlison. The plan will still be to sell him on for a profit at some point.

But Watford fans will tell you we've underinvested in defence and centre forward for the last 3-4 years. 

This season I think with the possible exception of Gosling, none of our incoming players have cost anything. Sanchez, Sierralta, Ngakia, Zinckernagel were all on frees.

We've had to sell Doucoure, Capoue, Deulofeu, Pereyra etc. and we are still in a big financial hole paying big wages to Deeney and Gray who've added very little and who we couldn't sell. 

If and when we go up it will be huge for us; without promotion we'd be selling our decent players and facing who knows how long in the Championship. 

The Norwich model appears more sustainable but doesn't always seem to give you a great chance of staying up.

There is never truly a great chance of staying up in terms of approach. You can spaff money at it like Fulham, even Shef Utd spent money on forwards that haven't given them the desired impact. Villa spent a lot of money and scraped survival in the first season back.

It takes good scouting and shrewd negotiating more than anything else. 

Bachmann - free
Cathcart - free
Troost-Ekong - £3mil
Sierralta - £350k
Masina - £4mil
Cleverley - £8mil
Hughes - £8mil
Gosling - £1.5mil
Sarr - £30mil
Pedro - £2mil
Sema - £4mil

Obviously these are mainly rumoured prices paid for players, as most are when looking at this sort of thing. Even ignoring Sarr you have a starting line up that otherwise cost £25-30mil to assemble. That's not criticism, that's what you'd expect of a side that had a good long stint in the premier league. 

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On 21/04/2021 at 10:50, AJ said:

1) Nyland - Premiership quality/experienced keeper, no problem.

2) Dimi will sign which gives us McCallum, Mumba and possibly Byram, not too worried here

3) CB - yes, we do need another although our yoof isn't look half bad, is he? I'd still like us to sign someone experienced though as I love Zimm but his recent injuries would make me a bit wary.

4) Yep, if we can't sign Skipp then we need to swallow pride and spend some money on a really decent DM or two, how I'd love us to get Skipp back though, he deserves a full season rather than playing second/third/fourth fiddle at Spurs if they aren't going to play him.

5) Placheta and Hernandez definitely have things to offer, and Placheta especially being quite young still has time to improve, but yes, we need someone who can play at the level of Buendia and Cantwell should either be unavailable, big ask without much money to spend for this position I would say.

6) Yep, we need a decent striker. I'd like to see Idah go out and play week in week out in the championship next season, which means we need someone up to Pukki's level to compete with him and Hugill, again, a big ask without a huge budget to spend.

 

On those to leave, disagree with Nyland, he has premiership quality and should be kept. I think we should also keep Stiepi if he can prove his fitness (We don't see training, but I feel he has a lot to offer still if he can get going again). I would imagine both Vrancic and Tettey could go either way, both might get an extra year, it's clear Tettey wants to do his coaching and is well loved by the club and in the dressing room, plus he's handy to throw on for the last 15/20 to shore up the midfield. Zimm will still be here, but I think with his injuries it'll be worth getting in another CB but that might depend on if we loan out the yoof or integrate him into the Premiership squad for next season

I think you’re pretty much right there. Here’s my views:

1) I don’t think decent GKs come very cheap and doubt many would be inclined to come and warm the bench. Nyland is experienced including some PL, so I think he will be offered a new contract. Despite being 37 this summer I think McGovern will also probably be offered one more year as I think Barden might go out for a loan 

2) Think we need will one more FB, even if Aarons stays. Byram has been great when fit but very IP, and not very convinced about Mumba/McCallum

3) Think we might even need two due to the injury proneness of our CBs

4) If we can get Skipp back that would be great, and I think we’ll be waving goodbye to Vrancic and Tettey this summer 

5) Dowell can also play wide, but think we will still need one

6) Need one to keep Teemu on his toes and in case he gets injured. Idah is still very inexperienced and could certainly do with a 2nd tier loan (just like McCallum this season)

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On 24/04/2021 at 15:23, chicken said:

There is never truly a great chance of staying up in terms of approach. You can spaff money at it like Fulham, even Shef Utd spent money on forwards that haven't given them the desired impact. Villa spent a lot of money and scraped survival in the first season back.

It takes good scouting and shrewd negotiating more than anything else. 

Bachmann - free
Cathcart - free
Troost-Ekong - £3mil
Sierralta - £350k
Masina - £4mil
Cleverley - £8mil
Hughes - £8mil
Gosling - £1.5mil
Sarr - £30mil
Pedro - £2mil
Sema - £4mil

Obviously these are mainly rumoured prices paid for players, as most are when looking at this sort of thing. Even ignoring Sarr you have a starting line up that otherwise cost £25-30mil to assemble. That's not criticism, that's what you'd expect of a side that had a good long stint in the premier league. 

Yes, not sure we paid that much for Gosling or Ekong. Would be pleasantly surprised if we did.

We don't usually splash out even in the Prem; we don't have mega-rich owners and Sarr was the exception and by far our record signing. 

Norwich building gradually and bringing through younger players alongside unearthing some bargains like Pukki is admirable.

Our lack of investment in defence is blamed by many of our fans, but it was actually lack of goals that cost us more in our relegation season.

Guess finding a reliable goalscorer or two at Prem level will remain a challenge for most promoted teams including us.

Edited by SuperTM

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On 21/04/2021 at 21:53, chicken said:

The main problem with your statement is that it suggests that we have been more physical, better playing etc in every game bar the 7 we have lost this season - but then you also have to factor in the "off days" when lesser teams will find that 5% to face us, perhaps on a day when our standards have dropped enough for that to make a difference.

I think the reality is despite being far from our best, Watford only beat us 1-0. With 11 men on the pitch, Bournemouth were desperately trying to just tread water.

Those off days happen.

People are reading far too much into it.

As for where people are talking about improving the team and further evidence for it - also throw away comments really. By that I mean we haven't learned anything we didn't already know about our squad in the last two games that we didn't know already. Mainly because Farke and Webber said it last season and before signings last summer.

We have added height, physicality and pace to our team. Do we need more? Of course. That will mean that some fans favourites will go. Farke has said that Vrancic doesn't have the legs to get up and down the pitch anymore. He's not wrong. Trybul struggled with this due to a lack of pace too, and arguably was just not quite physical enough either, though certainly not a rubbish player.

The difficulty here is that we are operating in the Championship. The players that Watford and Bournemouth poses that are premier league quality, were signed mainly whilst they were in the Premier League.

...

Thoroughly sensible post. Can't really disagree with anything you wrote. We're not a PL team, but we aren't in PL yet either. Good point.

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