2 points to promotion, 8 to the title

[HazzaJet 252]

3 minutes ago, kick it off said:

You're right. They have to play Watford so them doing that would play into our hands anyway, but mathematically, you're right. Will adjust the post.

Even so, it’s hardly a challenge. All we need is to get 2 more wins, and for Brentford and Swansea to get 2 draws and 1 defeat from their remaining fixtures and we’re up. 

[kick it off 1,952]

19 minutes ago, chicken said:

Isn't it a bit less?

Watford can finish on 99 points by winning every game.

Brentford can finish on 95 by winning every game.

Swansea can finish on 93 by winning every game.

Not all of these can be true as watford have to play both Brentford and Swansea.

Say watford beat Swansea and win every other game, but lose to Brentford who win every game, that would put watford on 96 and Brentford on 95.

So in pure maths terms 12 points is required.

In reality, we all know we won't need that many. As there's no way the teams chasing us would simultaneously go on ridiculous runs and results fall that way.

Il reduce the number down as and when it falls, should Brentford fail to win tomorrow, the target will be down to 10 points.

Edited April 2, 2021 by kick it off

[splendidrush 700]

.....I've got a headache 😫.....

[PurpleCanary 5,558]

I can't find the thread now, but after the Blackburn game I posted stats on goals in open play, for and against, as a sign that while others had to rely on set pieces, we didn't, with often goals coming from multi-pass moves. After Preston the figures are:

Twenty out of 22 goals for in open play. One corner and one penalty.

Against us, two goals from set pieces (both free kicks), two handed on a plate (Giannoulis straight to a Stoke player, for example) and only one - Preston's equaliser, as it happens - coming in genuinely open play.

And I found these relevant stats on a Watford fans' forum:

Farke’s side play with a slow and intricate style, which has seen them average the highest possession (61.1%), complete 80 more passes per game than any other side (454) and string together a league-high 481 passing sequences of 10+ passes in open play – 9.5% of the entire number seen in the Championship this season by all clubs.

Nearly 10 per cent of all such moves in the division...

[Yorkshire Canary 118]

84 points we probably have enough for second spot already. This season  90 points will be way above 3rd slot so 2 wins for me, who will finish top it largley depends on the outcome of our game with watford which could go any way on the day

Edited April 3, 2021 by Yorkshire Canary

[kick it off 1,952]

14 hours ago, kick it off said:

Watford can finish on 99 points by winning every game.

Brentford can finish on 95 by winning every game.

Swansea can finish on 93 by winning every game.

Not all of these can be true as watford have to play both Brentford and Swansea.

Say watford beat Swansea and win every other game, but lose to Brentford who win every game, that would put watford on 96 and Brentford on 95.

So in pure maths terms 12 points is required.

In reality, we all know we won't need that many. As there's no way the teams chasing us would simultaneously go on ridiculous runs and results fall that way.

Il reduce the number down as and when it falls, should Brentford fail to win tomorrow, the target will be down to 10 points.

Brentford can finish on Maximum of 93 now so 10 points is enough to clinch promotion.

[duke63 542]

In theory we could be promoted next Saturday.

Edited April 3, 2021 by duke63

[Grumpy 122]

Having done so well for the season so far I am more concerned about not winning the league.I will be really gutted if Watford pip us for the title.

[chicken 2,624]

15 hours ago, kick it off said:

Watford can finish on 99 points by winning every game.

Brentford can finish on 95 by winning every game.

Swansea can finish on 93 by winning every game.

Not all of these can be true as watford have to play both Brentford and Swansea.

Say watford beat Swansea and win every other game, but lose to Brentford who win every game, that would put watford on 96 and Brentford on 95.

So in pure maths terms 12 points is required.

In reality, we all know we won't need that many. As there's no way the teams chasing us would simultaneously go on ridiculous runs and results fall that way.

Il reduce the number down as and when it falls, should Brentford fail to win tomorrow, the target will be down to 10 points.

The main problem with solely considering maths is that in sports, it depends on as and when those points come - not solely about maximum point gains.

Realistically we are into every game matters territory as I said before. It really doesn't matter about us having to gain points as much as it does about other teams having to gain points. They have to win all of their remaining games. We don't. If either Brentford or Swansea lose a game then their ability to catch us will become increasingly improbable then impossible.

'If', as you say, other teams won all of their games, Watford isn't the issue here so say they lost their games, then we would need to worry. But we're talking purely about promotion.

Games remaining:
Norwich: Huddersfiled(H), Derby(A), Bournemouth(H),  Watford(H), QPR(A), Reading(H), Barnsley(A).
Watford: Middlesbrough(A), Reading(H), Luton(A), Norwich(A), Millwall(H), Brentford(A), Swansea(H).
Brentford: Birmingham(H), Preston(A), Millwall(H), Cardiff(H), Bournemouth(A), Rotherham(H)(GIH), Watford(H), Bristol City(A).
Swansea: Preston(H), Millwall(A), Shef Wed(A)(GIH), Wycombe(H), QPR(H), Reading(A), Derby(H), Watford(A).

The speed in which we pick up points is as important as hitting 10pts. Three wins in the next three would put us on 93. Even if Swansea and Brentford did the same, they would need to win ALL of their remaining games to hit 93. Realistically, if the same happened and we all won the next two round of fixtures. 90pts for Norwich, 84 for Watford, 75 for Swansea and Brentford. Both Swansea and Brentford would need to win their remaining 6 games to get past 90pts and stand a chance of getting more points than us.

Edited April 3, 2021 by chicken

[HazzaJet 252]

All we need is to beat Huddersfield and Derby, and for Brentford and Swansea to fail to win their next 2 games.

[Move Klose 303]

Is it 10 points mathematically, I know it was 12 after the swansea result last night.

Realistically its probably only going to need 6 more points.

[HazzaJet 252]

1 hour ago, Move Klose said:

Is it 10 points mathematically, I know it was 12 after the swansea result last night.

Realistically its probably only going to need 6 more points.

It is 10 points mathematically. The only reason it was 12 after Swansea’s game was because Brentford hadn’t played. All we need is 2 more wins, and Brentford and Swansea to both fail to win 2 of their remaining 8 games

Edited April 3, 2021 by HazzaJet

[kick it off 1,952]

14 for the title now. See if we come any closer to promotion this afternoon with Swansea vs Preston.

Watford maximum of 97

Brentford 93

Swansea 90

Edited April 5, 2021 by kick it off

[Alex Moss 2,165]

So 4 wins and 2 draws from our remaining 7 games secures the title. But what is most satisfying is that every time a rival drops points then the less and less we have to do. 

I wonder if this will give Swansea the impetus to put the pressure on Watford and Brentford later, because if they can’t get inspired by that result today for the Preston game then I think I’d write them off tonight if they put in yet another poor showing (if!).

Edited April 5, 2021 by Alex Moss

[HazzaJet 252]

In actual fact winning our next 4 games would be enough for the title as victory over Watford would knock 6 points off

Edited April 5, 2021 by HazzaJet

[Alex Moss 2,165]

2 minutes ago, HazzaJet said:

In actual fact victory over Huddersfield, Derby, Bournemouth and Watford would be enough for the title as beating Watford would knock 6 points off

Good point, Hazza! But if we don’t, that can be the game we lose as they’d still not be able to overtake us even if they won every single game remaining. But of course, your point is equally true and hopefully we will beat them which will do very nicely!

[Daz Sparks 1,154]

5 minutes ago, Alex Moss said:

hopefully we will beat them which will do very nicely!

Yes,  lately I have grown tired of all the fawning over Fartwod, beating them would be sweet.

[HazzaJet 252]

25 minutes ago, Alex Moss said:

Good point, Hazza! But if we don’t, that can be the game we lose as they’d still not be able to overtake us even if they won every single game remaining. But of course, your point is equally true and hopefully we will beat them which will do very nicely!

Would be shocking if we did - imagine how painful it would feel for the team in 2nd place to see their opponents celebrating the title after the game

Edited April 5, 2021 by HazzaJet

[CANARYKING 638]

My brain aches, what’s the total now ?

[HazzaJet 252]

If Brentford drop points tomorrow it will be a maximum of 8 required - that's assuming they draw and we lose. If they lose and we win it will 4

Edited April 5, 2021 by HazzaJet

[kick it off 1,952]

23 minutes ago, CANARYKING said:

My brain aches, what’s the total now ?

Still 10 until Brentford play. If they win, it stays 10. If they drop points then the total will reduce to 7 points with them losing and 8 if they draw. Obviously we also play tomorrow so any we gain will be knocked off the remaining total.

[Mullet 293]

I hope we and Brentford keep winning. Brentford have two games in hand on Watford and have to play them second last game of the season. Tall ask for Brentford but keep winning and Watford will be caught

[Crafty Canary 495]

If Watford beat Swansea then Swansea can only get 87 points maximum and Watford 97. If Swansea beat Watford they could get 90 maximum and Watford 94. If Brentford beat Watford their maximum is 93 points and Watford’s is 94. If Brentford lose to Watford they can get 90 max and Watford can stll get 97.

so, Swansea are basically out of it as 7 points from our last 7 games will be enough.

10 points from our last 7 games means Brentford cannot overtake us. 7 points will do if Brentford drop 3 more points.

 

Edited April 5, 2021 by Crafty Canary

[unique 435]

We are already promoted.
 

Maybe not mathematically, but in the current circumstances, we have a squad of players who are in good enough form not to blow-up.

Added to which the teams from 3rd downwards are not showing any consistency to threaten even 2nd spot.

The only thing that matters now is finishing 1st.

The planning for playing in the PL next season should have already begun.

[splendidrush 700]

As an aside,  how do you compare the "chasers" this season compared to the Leeds, Blades and West Brom of 2 years ago?.... stronger or weaker?

[unique 435]

It is a shame Watford appear to have cemented 2nd spot as they won’t necessarily be a certain for relegation next season.

It’s a 5-horse race for the 3rd spot. It wouldn’t surprise me if Bournemouth sneak it, which wouldn’t be ideal.

The best scenario would be for Swansea to gain promotion. Even their own fans would be gobsmacked. Their luck has run out the last few matches which has gifted Watford the autos.

Brentford and Reading both have flair players and a huge dose of inconsistency, whereas Barnsley have a unique style and plan which is reliant on high fitness and a squad of youngsters. All three teams might take a huge dose of naivety with them , if promoted.

I’m backing Swansea for 3rd spot - they’re over-achieving in bucket loads, and would usurp us as favourites for relegation next season.

[Ken Hairy 3,772]

47 minutes ago, splendidrush said:

As an aside,  how do you compare the "chasers" this season compared to the Leeds, Blades and West Brom of 2 years ago?.... stronger or weaker?

A lot weaker now. 

I'm happy in the knowledge that 1 relegation spot next season will be the team who wins the play offs. 

All this talk of maths, we're already up, we can lose every game and we're up, 3rd place will not catch out current total, no-one is consistent enough. Watford need 2 wins, but they'll 100% get them.

Us and Watford are Premier league clubs 🤷‍♂️

[Wardogz 72]

I don't think we need another point to secure at least 2nd, a win tonight would seal it for sure though. 

[dylanisabaddog 4,921]

7 minutes ago, Wardogz said:

I don't think we need another point to secure at least 2nd, a win tonight would seal it for sure though. 

84 points hasn't been enough in 4 of the last 7 seasons. But I think we'll be promoted mathematically after the Bournemouth game

[Wardogz 72]

17 minutes ago, dylanisabaddog said:

84 points hasn't been enough in 4 of the last 7 seasons. But I think we'll be promoted mathematically after the Bournemouth game

You make a good point, but I think the chasing pack has run out of steam, I think the threshold will be lower this year. If it does end up being enough, then it'll be 4 in 8 seasons, a 50% chance, not so unlikely.

Promotion after Bournemouth seems very likely though.