Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
kick it off

2 points to promotion, 8 to the title

Recommended Posts

If we get another 8 points (92 points) then Swansea will need 23 points from their last 9 games. Thats 7 wins and 2 draws. Given they have Reading and Watford both away to play that would be a huge ask. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Aye, don't think we'll need to pick up all 13 points, but that's all we need even with every possible result going against us. Never going to happen.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hopefully we never end up in a tight finish, there will be pish everywhere 

  • Haha 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

Well said and totally agree with you KIO. We’ve already got 84 points and only once has a team failed to get automatic promotion on 90 points. Too many fans seem to panicking about us not going up now. Considering the situation regarding our squad today (injuries, fatigue) I think we did really well.

Our next two fixtures are against teams in a relegation battle, and although I’m pretty confident of victory against Huddersfield, I’m not too sure about Derby. However, I still think we have a pretty good chance of winning both and if we do we’ll have 90 points when we play Bournemouth.

I also seriously doubt we’ll end up requiring 13 for promotion as although Swansea have games in hand, being so far behind us puts more pressure on them as effectively they have to all their games, hope we drop plenty of points, and having games in hand means more fixtures close together. As a result of this in my opinion games in hand only really carry a potential threat if the team possessing it/them is no further than the number of available points behind another team, and failure to win one instantly reduces the threat.

Although it’s h/t and still goalless at St Andrew’s I think Swansea will take all 3 tonight - the Blues have missed a penalty and are in a relegation battle. If Swansea fail to win tonight though that would instantly reduce the required amount to either 11 or 10, depending on whether it’s a draw or defeat 

We all know that it’s not impossible for Swansea to win all their remaining games, but highly unlikely to see them go on a 9 game winning streak. It’s going to be very hard for Swansea as well, as our required tally reduces with both every point we gain, and every point they drop

Edited by HazzaJet

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yep, and additionally we have a 13 goal advantage in goal difference so that's probably worth an extra point barring any big shorelines coming in.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, GJL Mid-Norfolk Canary said:

Brentford not being mentioned anymore??

They'd have to win their 2 games in hand to close the gap between us and them to 10 points. 

They would probably need 7 wins from their last 9 games. That will be hard for them to maintain.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

After the position we were in two games ago championship looked a cert.  Would be disappointed if Watford pipped us as they are definite second best in footballing terms.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

waiting for swans to get last minute penalty 0-0 on 88 mins

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, pete said:

After the position we were in two games ago championship looked a cert.  Would be disappointed if Watford pipped us as they are definite second best in footballing terms.

Watford have been on a good winning run, and you know what happens to those..... they come to an end. They have boro away and reading at home up next. They wont win both of those.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Neither Swansea or Brentford will surpass our current points tally. We can look back at this as the weekend we secured promotion.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Suck on that you Swans! Sure you’ve managed to snatch victory recently from late penalties, and yet again there’s been another late spot-kick in your game. Unfortunately I don’t think it’s gone in your favour this time has it..... 🤣

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
27 minutes ago, GJL Mid-Norfolk Canary said:

Brentford not being mentioned anymore??

Nah, they've already walked the league.

In some parallel universe ...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

I said in the match thread that, if results go our way we could be promoted next Saturday. That's still on the table.

Edited by Crabbycanary3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
18 minutes ago, Move Klose said:

Watford have been on a good winning run, and you know what happens to those..... they come to an end. They have boro away and reading at home up next. They wont win both of those.

By the time Watford play Brentford and Swansea they could already be promoted and those two could be resting players for the playoffs??

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
19 minutes ago, Midlands Yellow said:

Cooper didn’t appreciate that late, late goal. 
 

image.jpeg.8d03797042e897c88086892b1a037177.jpeg

Not a pretty picture 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, Crafty Canary said:

If we get another 8 points (92 points) then Swansea will need 23 points from their last 9 games. Thats 7 wins and 2 draws. Given they have Reading and Watford both away to play that would be a huge ask. 

Swansea now need 23 points from 8 games if we get another 8 points. That means they would have to win all their remaining games and that is not going to happen. Brentford are currently 16 points behind us with 9 to play. So if we get to 92 points they would need 24 more points meaning 8 wins and a draw. That won’t happen too. Now it’s just a case of who will end up as Champions and that will be us.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, kick it off said:

Now 10 points to guarantee promotion after Blues beat Swansea tonight.

I'd bet on us getting 10 points in 7 games easy enough, but Swansea aren't going to win every game anyway.

Chill.

If Brentford win all their remaining games they'd finish on 95 points, so it's 12 points for promotion.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, Icecream Snow said:

If Brentford win all their remaining games they'd finish on 95 points, so it's 12 points for promotion.

And if your auntie had kn0b she’d be your uncle. 

  • Confused 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Midlands Yellow said:

And if your auntie had kn0b she’d be your uncle. 

it is half term already?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well, the Swansea result just goes to show a point is better than none, although we definitely should have left with all 3. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
18 minutes ago, Icecream Snow said:

If Brentford win all their remaining games they'd finish on 95 points, so it's 12 points for promotion.

You're right. They have to play Watford so them doing that would play into our hands anyway, but mathematically, you're right. Will adjust the post.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Isn't it a bit less?

We have 7 games remaining with a total of 21 points to play for with currently a lead of 15points.

Swansea have 8 games remaining with a total of 24 points to play for and in need of 16 points.
Brentford have 9 games remaining with a total of 27 points to play for and are in need of 18 points.
Watford have 7 games remaining with a total of 21 points to play for and need 6 points.

Essentially the gap needs to be the same when Swansea have played three more games. At which point they would require 16 points from 5 games. In fact, if the gap is still the same, after two more of their fixtures, they would require 16 points from 6 games, with just 18 to play for.

Brentford are slightly better off and could reduce what they need to 13 points with their next game.

The simple maths of it though is that those teams are needing to win a higher percentage of games in their last 7-9 fixtures than they have managed yet so far this season. Not impossible, but improbable and growing more improbable by each passing fixture.

If all we did was win two more games, we would be on 90 points.

Swansea are 21 points off that with 24 left to play for. So nothing less than 7 wins from 8 games.
Brentford are 22 off that with 27 left to play for. So 7 wins and a draw from 9 games.
Watford are 12 off that with 21 left to play for. 4 wins from 7 games. 

In other words, we are now in the territory of them having to win every game. Swansea and Brentford will be focusing their sights more on Watford. Three wins would seal it for my money.

Win three more games and we would be on 93 points. No way are Swansea going to win all of their remaining games. Brentford would need 25 from 27, so 8 wins and a draw - in other words, they couldn't lose another game. Watford would need 15 from 21 or 5 wins from 7.

So like I say. Every game now is huge, the pendulum can swing massively. We win and Swansea/Brentford drop points, that number of wins we need drops dramatically. Even putting another point between us and Swansea today is huge. It doesn't seem it, but 15 points, that's essentially 6 wins from 8 purely on the basis we lose every remaining game we have left. Swansea have lost three and drawn one of their last five games.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  

×
×
  • Create New...