2 points to promotion, 8 to the title

[kick it off 2,062]

Title updated to reflect the progress

Edited April 10, 2021 by kick it off

[Crafty Canary 547]

If we get another 8 points (92 points) then Swansea will need 23 points from their last 9 games. Thats 7 wins and 2 draws. Given they have Reading and Watford both away to play that would be a huge ask. 

[kick it off 2,062]

Aye, don't think we'll need to pick up all 13 points, but that's all we need even with every possible result going against us. Never going to happen.

[Van wink 2,994]

Hopefully we never end up in a tight finish, there will be pish everywhere 

[HazzaJet 267]

Well said and totally agree with you KIO. We’ve already got 84 points and only once has a team failed to get automatic promotion on 90 points. Too many fans seem to panicking about us not going up now. Considering the situation regarding our squad today (injuries, fatigue) I think we did really well.

Our next two fixtures are against teams in a relegation battle, and although I’m pretty confident of victory against Huddersfield, I’m not too sure about Derby. However, I still think we have a pretty good chance of winning both and if we do we’ll have 90 points when we play Bournemouth.

I also seriously doubt we’ll end up requiring 13 for promotion as although Swansea have games in hand, being so far behind us puts more pressure on them as effectively they have to all their games, hope we drop plenty of points, and having games in hand means more fixtures close together. As a result of this in my opinion games in hand only really carry a potential threat if the team possessing it/them is no further than the number of available points behind another team, and failure to win one instantly reduces the threat.

Although it’s h/t and still goalless at St Andrew’s I think Swansea will take all 3 tonight - the Blues have missed a penalty and are in a relegation battle. If Swansea fail to win tonight though that would instantly reduce the required amount to either 11 or 10, depending on whether it’s a draw or defeat 

We all know that it’s not impossible for Swansea to win all their remaining games, but highly unlikely to see them go on a 9 game winning streak. It’s going to be very hard for Swansea as well, as our required tally reduces with both every point we gain, and every point they drop

Edited April 2, 2021 by HazzaJet

[kick it off 2,062]

Yep, and additionally we have a 13 goal advantage in goal difference so that's probably worth an extra point barring any big shorelines coming in.

[Move Klose 303]

Swansea wont get above 86 points anyway.

[GJL Mid-Norfolk Canary 2,035]

Brentford not being mentioned anymore??

[Move Klose 303]

2 minutes ago, GJL Mid-Norfolk Canary said:

Brentford not being mentioned anymore??

They'd have to win their 2 games in hand to close the gap between us and them to 10 points. 

They would probably need 7 wins from their last 9 games. That will be hard for them to maintain.

[pete 371]

After the position we were in two games ago championship looked a cert.  Would be disappointed if Watford pipped us as they are definite second best in footballing terms.

[pete 371]

waiting for swans to get last minute penalty 0-0 on 88 mins

[kick it off 2,062]

Penalty to brum!!!! 90th min

Edited April 2, 2021 by kick it off

[Move Klose 303]

1 minute ago, pete said:

After the position we were in two games ago championship looked a cert.  Would be disappointed if Watford pipped us as they are definite second best in footballing terms.

Watford have been on a good winning run, and you know what happens to those..... they come to an end. They have boro away and reading at home up next. They wont win both of those.

[Hucks6 186]

Good old Birmingham Swansea got what they deserved 

[Petriix 3,219]

Neither Swansea or Brentford will surpass our current points tally. We can look back at this as the weekend we secured promotion.

[PurpleCanary 6,385]

That is effectively Swansea out of the equation. They now will not be able to catch us. 

[HazzaJet 267]

Suck on that you Swans! Sure you’ve managed to snatch victory recently from late penalties, and yet again there’s been another late spot-kick in your game. Unfortunately I don’t think it’s gone in your favour this time has it..... 🤣

[Midlands Yellow 4,682]

Cooper didn’t appreciate that late, late goal. 
 

[ron obvious 1,711]

27 minutes ago, GJL Mid-Norfolk Canary said:

Brentford not being mentioned anymore??

Nah, they've already walked the league.

In some parallel universe ...

[Crabbycanary3 994]

I said in the match thread that, if results go our way we could be promoted next Saturday. That's still on the table.

Edited April 2, 2021 by Crabbycanary3

[GJL Mid-Norfolk Canary 2,035]

18 minutes ago, Move Klose said:

Watford have been on a good winning run, and you know what happens to those..... they come to an end. They have boro away and reading at home up next. They wont win both of those.

By the time Watford play Brentford and Swansea they could already be promoted and those two could be resting players for the playoffs??

[CANARYKING 708]

19 minutes ago, Midlands Yellow said:

Cooper didn’t appreciate that late, late goal. 
 

Not a pretty picture 

[Crafty Canary 547]

3 hours ago, Crafty Canary said:

If we get another 8 points (92 points) then Swansea will need 23 points from their last 9 games. Thats 7 wins and 2 draws. Given they have Reading and Watford both away to play that would be a huge ask. 

Swansea now need 23 points from 8 games if we get another 8 points. That means they would have to win all their remaining games and that is not going to happen. Brentford are currently 16 points behind us with 9 to play. So if we get to 92 points they would need 24 more points meaning 8 wins and a draw. That won’t happen too. Now it’s just a case of who will end up as Champions and that will be us.

[Icecream Snow 777]

5 hours ago, kick it off said:

Now 10 points to guarantee promotion after Blues beat Swansea tonight.

I'd bet on us getting 10 points in 7 games easy enough, but Swansea aren't going to win every game anyway.

Chill.

If Brentford win all their remaining games they'd finish on 95 points, so it's 12 points for promotion.

[Midlands Yellow 4,682]

10 minutes ago, Icecream Snow said:

If Brentford win all their remaining games they'd finish on 95 points, so it's 12 points for promotion.

And if your auntie had kn0b she’d be your uncle. 

[Icecream Snow 777]

1 minute ago, Midlands Yellow said:

And if your auntie had kn0b she’d be your uncle. 

it is half term already?

[AJ 1,359]

Well, the Swansea result just goes to show a point is better than none, although we definitely should have left with all 3. 

[nutty nigel 7,902]

I bet Brentford are relieved they won the league in February🙃

[kick it off 2,062]

18 minutes ago, Icecream Snow said:

If Brentford win all their remaining games they'd finish on 95 points, so it's 12 points for promotion.

You're right. They have to play Watford so them doing that would play into our hands anyway, but mathematically, you're right. Will adjust the post.

[chicken 3,086]

Isn't it a bit less?

We have 7 games remaining with a total of 21 points to play for with currently a lead of 15points.

Swansea have 8 games remaining with a total of 24 points to play for and in need of 16 points.
Brentford have 9 games remaining with a total of 27 points to play for and are in need of 18 points.
Watford have 7 games remaining with a total of 21 points to play for and need 6 points.

Essentially the gap needs to be the same when Swansea have played three more games. At which point they would require 16 points from 5 games. In fact, if the gap is still the same, after two more of their fixtures, they would require 16 points from 6 games, with just 18 to play for.

Brentford are slightly better off and could reduce what they need to 13 points with their next game.

The simple maths of it though is that those teams are needing to win a higher percentage of games in their last 7-9 fixtures than they have managed yet so far this season. Not impossible, but improbable and growing more improbable by each passing fixture.

If all we did was win two more games, we would be on 90 points.

Swansea are 21 points off that with 24 left to play for. So nothing less than 7 wins from 8 games.
Brentford are 22 off that with 27 left to play for. So 7 wins and a draw from 9 games.
Watford are 12 off that with 21 left to play for. 4 wins from 7 games. 

In other words, we are now in the territory of them having to win every game. Swansea and Brentford will be focusing their sights more on Watford. Three wins would seal it for my money.

Win three more games and we would be on 93 points. No way are Swansea going to win all of their remaining games. Brentford would need 25 from 27, so 8 wins and a draw - in other words, they couldn't lose another game. Watford would need 15 from 21 or 5 wins from 7.

So like I say. Every game now is huge, the pendulum can swing massively. We win and Swansea/Brentford drop points, that number of wins we need drops dramatically. Even putting another point between us and Swansea today is huge. It doesn't seem it, but 15 points, that's essentially 6 wins from 8 purely on the basis we lose every remaining game we have left. Swansea have lost three and drawn one of their last five games.