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It's Character Forming

10 points ahead with 10 games to go

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It isn't just the 10 point lead with only 10 games left. It's the fact we are in the best form of the entire league, winning 8 in a row, and that maybe 4 wins maximum, possibly 3 wins and a couple of draws will be enough. We can afford to lose 5 games in the last 10, and almost every team we have left would snap your hand off for a point against us. 

We are just too good for almost all of this league, the most dominant season I can remember in my lifetime. We will probably come very close to the 100 point mark. And we need to - a hugely dominant triumph will create huge belief going back into the Premier League. And getting the job done will really help us to get the recruitment process underway before our rivals. 

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8 hours ago, Beefy is a legend said:

It isn't just the 10 point lead with only 10 games left. It's the fact we are in the best form of the entire league, winning 8 in a row, and that maybe 4 wins maximum, possibly 3 wins and a couple of draws will be enough. We can afford to lose 5 games in the last 10, and almost every team we have left would snap your hand off for a point against us. 

We are just too good for almost all of this league, the most dominant season I can remember in my lifetime. We will probably come very close to the 100 point mark. And we need to - a hugely dominant triumph will create huge belief going back into the Premier League. And getting the job done will really help us to get the recruitment process underway before our rivals. 

Agree with all of that which makes it even more galling that we are not there in person to witness

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I went on Watford's forum last night just to see, they think we are well out of the picture after this weekend. Some of them are still claiming they are a better side though. I have checked a lot of forums here and there this season, and they have been some of the most overconfident.

I suppose I get it with their squad going in, but I find it surprising that every relegated side assumes they will find the championship easy despite all the evidence that says teams usually struggle to get promoted a second time. They are also assuming that whoever comes third and fourth will be battling it out in the playoff final. Again without much support from historical precedent.

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5 minutes ago, 1902 said:

I went on Watford's forum last night just to see, they think we are well out of the picture after this weekend. Some of them are still claiming they are a better side though. I have checked a lot of forums here and there this season, and they have been some of the most overconfident.

I suppose I get it with their squad going in, but I find it surprising that every relegated side assumes they will find the championship easy despite all the evidence that says teams usually struggle to get promoted a second time. They are also assuming that whoever comes third and fourth will be battling it out in the playoff final. Again without much support from historical precedent.

I haven't seen those comments, so do not know what context they are talking about, but a cursory glance at the table show the only advantage they can call over us, is that they have conceded 1 goal fewer than we have and have had more draws. What are they basing their thoughts on? Possession? Passing? Chances created?

Watford are a good side, but the table doesn't lie, and taking into account the remaining fixtures, the gap between us and Watford could be bigger than 10 points at the end of the season, and then what would Watford fans say about being a better side? They have the hardest set of fixtures, out of any of the teams in contention for automatic promotion. You could argue a point about being a better side over the course of a game or two, but not (currently) 36 and certainly not over 46 if the points gap is in double figures. No one is that lucky to finish 1st by a large margin nor unlucky to lose out 1st position by the same margin

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Having read a comment on this thread that Watford fans have a superior attitude I popped over to their site to have a look. Either it was one of you lot or they're actually very similar to us😂

20210315_124922.thumb.jpg.c89da680d07177a1f4346bb1c9eec38a.jpg

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Player for player I think Watford's squad is probably on a par with ours and since their new guy has taken over they have done almost as well. They perhaps don't have our depth, but they haven't had many injuries to key players either. All season I've considered them our greatest threat and still think they will finish second. We took some very valuable earlier points than they did because we were able to settle quicker - possibly because our players knew what to expect.

I genuinely think the fixture lists have been quite kind to both us and Watford - in our case we got a lot of the contenders out of the way early on and have been able to build up our tally; Watford similarly now have had two of the last 3 and the next 3 games against the bottom teams. Not always a given result, but as we have shown, these teams are down there for a reason.

They will need a cushion because their last 7 games include Luton (local derby), Brentford and us away, plus Reading and Swansea at home so that will be the spell which determines how they end up but I think they'll be too strong for both Brentford and Swansea when they play them. Depending on what we need when we play them, they could well beat us too.

 

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6 hours ago, Crabbycanary3 said:

They have the hardest set of fixtures, out of any of the teams in contention for automatic promotion. You could argue a point about being a better side over the course of a game or two, but not (currently) 36 and certainly not over 46 if the points gap is in double figures. No one is that lucky to finish 1st by a large margin nor unlucky to lose out 1st position by the same margin

Which suggests their position is based on an easier set of games so far.

The reality is that it is a case of one out of three for second place - and I suggest 2nd pace will be swapped around a fair few rime before the season ends.

As to the playoffs I wouldn't rule out Barnsley, as it is often the in form team that wins out - and there playoff place should be closer after their next two games .....Wycombe and Sheff Weds - with Coventry and Rotherham probably being enough to make the top six.

They have us on the last day, and with us most likely home and dusted, they may be able to add another three points ............ if needed

 

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I have seen a few Watford games this season. I don’t think their squad-or even their first XI-is anywhere near as good as ours, and they’ve certainly not played as well as us. They’ve improved under the new manager-their form since he was appointed is second only to us-but they still don’t seem to have much of a plan on how they are going to win a match.

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So tomorrow (Tuesday 16th) - Out of Watford, Swansea and Brentford who is going to drop points ? 

I think AFC will beat Swansea (last minute penalty if needed following a blatant dive 🙂 ) - they need a result to push for playoffs and will be smarting from the Barnsley defeat. Swansea themselves haven't exactly been convincing of late if lucky.

Edited by Yellow Fever

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Anyone know of any websites that show league position for a given club over each season on a time chart?

 I search for one every so often without success

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1 hour ago, Yellow Fever said:

So tomorrow (Tuesday 16th) - Out of Watford, Swansea and Brentford who is going to drop points ? 

I think AFC will beat Swansea (last minute penalty if needed following a blatant dive 🙂 ) - they need a result to push for playoffs and will be smarting from the Barnsley defeat. Swansea themselves haven't exactly been convincing of late if lucky.

Very true but we weren't always convincing before Christmas and we got the rub of the green with some strange decisions at that time. Swansea beat us at home and gave us a really good game here. I think we're a better team than them and Watford or Brentford but they are all very good Championship teams. So are Barnsley. 

After Max at Reading we definitely shouldn't be having a go about "blatant dives" 

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2 hours ago, dylanisabaddog said:

Very true but we weren't always convincing before Christmas and we got the rub of the green with some strange decisions at that time. Swansea beat us at home and gave us a really good game here. I think we're a better team than them and Watford or Brentford but they are all very good Championship teams. So are Barnsley. 

After Max at Reading we definitely shouldn't be having a go about "blatant dives" 

I'd say they're very different though. For any defender, if you lunge in and don't get the ball it's an invitation for an attacker to clip your outstretched leg. So whilst Max has played for it a little, I don't see VAR overturning that.

For the Kyle Naughton dive, Jack Clarke doesn't touch him.

 

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1 hour ago, Icecream Snow said:

I'd say they're very different though. For any defender, if you lunge in and don't get the ball it's an invitation for an attacker to clip your outstretched leg. So whilst Max has played for it a little, I don't see VAR overturning that.

For the Kyle Naughton dive, Jack Clarke doesn't touch him.

 

I certainly agree they’re very different Icecream but I certainly wouldn’t bet on VAR not overturning our penalty as I think the way Aarons falls in comparison to the contact is a bit excessive, although it’s clearly not a blatant dive. Swansea’s penalty is nothing more but a stonewall yellow for the attacker, as it clearly is a blatant dive - the game’s almost over, Swansea are in a promotion battle and so desperately need wins, and if there is any contact I can’t see how the attacker would have felt it

Edited by HazzaJet

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19 hours ago, Yellow Fever said:

So tomorrow (Tuesday 16th) - Out of Watford, Swansea and Brentford who is going to drop points ? 

I think AFC will beat Swansea (last minute penalty if needed following a blatant dive 🙂 ) - they need a result to push for playoffs and will be smarting from the Barnsley defeat. Swansea themselves haven't exactly been convincing of late if lucky.

Well you can get odds of around 11/1 on all 3 winning tonight.

If one/two slip then great news, if they all win then quids in. Win/win.

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18 hours ago, dylanisabaddog said:

Very true but we weren't always convincing before Christmas and we got the rub of the green with some strange decisions at that time. Swansea beat us at home and gave us a really good game here. I think we're a better team than them and Watford or Brentford but they are all very good Championship teams. So are Barnsley. 

After Max at Reading we definitely shouldn't be having a go about "blatant dives" 

I'm not condoning any dive by anybody - but Swansea's' recent one was more blatant than most and more damaging so I wouldn't cry for them if karma strikes!

Anyway - bigger point is that now with games running out those that remain are almost 6 pointers - the pack behind us have to win to just to stand still!  If they don't it may be impossible to catch up very quickly.

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10 minutes ago, Move Klose said:

Well you can get odds of around 11/1 on all 3 winning tonight.

If one/two slip then great news, if they all win then quids in. Win/win.

My point below/above - They have to win and even that will hopefully not be enough 🙂

 

 

Edited by Yellow Fever

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3 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

I'm not condoning any dive by anybody - but Swansea's' recent one was more blatant than most and more damaging so I wouldn't cry for them if karma strikes!

Anyway - bigger point is that now with games running out those that remain are almost 6 pointers - the pack behind us have to win to just to stand still!  If they don't it may be impossible to catch up very quickly.

I'll have a guess at Promotion Day being 17 April 

20210316_122138.thumb.jpg.4a7bb331f6965df67719f4f97ed49f14.jpg

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On 14/03/2021 at 21:29, Wilson said:

I know all that but the poster said only one of Swansea, Watford and Brentford could win all of their remaining games.

Thought I’d missed something 

Partly, I believe, because it is technically impossible for them ALL to win their remaining games.

Brentford and Swansea still have to play Watford. So in theory, only one of those teams could win ALL of their remaining games.

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On 14/03/2021 at 17:00, Wardogz said:

Due to our points advantage, you could look at it as 7 games.

I would say 6 against Watford and 7 against Swansea and Brentford due to their game in hand.

Three games wouldn't catch us, it'd take 4 to be sure of getting past us. 

What's more, from what I can see, Brentford don't get their game in hand over us until the 27th April can't figure out where Swansea's is? Perhaps not slated yet?

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47 minutes ago, O2View said:

Thanks O2. Good reminder, as I think that’s the best or closest there is to what I’m after.

My preference is those visual line charts like this one off Wiki

Pride_Of_Anglia_League_Performance.svg
But position on different match days through a given season

Edited by GenerationA47

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2 hours ago, dylanisabaddog said:

I'll have a guess at Promotion Day being 17 April 

20210316_122138.thumb.jpg.4a7bb331f6965df67719f4f97ed49f14.jpg

Good guess I would say. Hindsight might have it even earlier if other drop points

Edited by Yellow Fever

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2 hours ago, chicken said:

Partly, I believe, because it is technically impossible for them ALL to win their remaining games.

Brentford and Swansea still have to play Watford. So in theory, only one of those teams could win ALL of their remaining games.

Original poster said only one could win all games not as you’ve stated. 
 

Id be interested to know why Brentford and Swansea couldn’t win all of their remaining games. 

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3 minutes ago, Wilson said:

Original poster said only one could win all games not as you’ve stated. 
 

Id be interested to know why Brentford and Swansea couldn’t win all of their remaining games. 

Good point their mate. Brentford and Swansea have played both of the fixtures between them now, and so the season could end with them both winning all their remaining games 

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Interestingly last season, West Brom only got 14 points from their last ten games. Finished second with just 83 poinrts.

Brentford got 24, Fulham 18, Leeds 25, Forest 10, Swansea 18, Preston 10, Cardiff 22.

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On 15/03/2021 at 15:51, Bill said:

Which suggests their position is based on an easier set of games so far.

The reality is that it is a case of one out of three for second place - and I suggest 2nd place will be swapped around a fair few times before the season ends.

As to the playoffs I wouldn't rule out Barnsley, as it is often the in form team that wins out - and their playoff place should be closer after their next two games .....Wycombe and Sheff Weds - with Coventry and Rotherham also, probably being enough to make the top six.

They have us on the last day, and with us most likely home and dusted, they may be able to add another three points ............ if needed

Now 3 points clear of 6th place Reading and 5 points ahead of 7th place B'mouth

and you ca still get 5-1 on them getting promoted (Ricardo)

 

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