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dylanisabaddog

Help with an accumulator bet

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I've emailed Bet365 and asked to place an accumulator bet on Norwich winning their next 6 games. I'd like to do singles, doubles, trebles etc. They are not prepared to take a bet like that. Can anyone point me in the direction of someone who will? Thanks 

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Also William Hill #YourOdds might be prepared to take it on perhaps?

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I think they’d play it tight anyway if they do price it up. Should be at least 20/25/1 but I think you’d be offered something on the skinny side. 

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14 minutes ago, Midlands Yellow said:

Just keep rolling over if they won’t price a 6 match winning streak. 

Indeed impossible to price, the team we are playing 6th for instance may have won or lost their last 6 games.

Betfair will do unusual things, but probably not for a small sum.

Easy as you say to roll the bets over.

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Having followed up your suggestions I can only assume all bookies are cowards. 

I don't want to roll it over. I want to do it backwards sideways and up and down. If that makes sense. 

But on a positive note, it would appear that the bookmakers think we're going to win our next 6 games 

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2 hours ago, dylanisabaddog said:

Having followed up your suggestions I can only assume all bookies are cowards. 

I don't want to roll it over. I want to do it backwards sideways and up and down. If that makes sense. 

But on a positive note, it would appear that the bookmakers think we're going to win our next 6 games 

What odds would you be happy with? 

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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, dylanisabaddog said:

Having followed up your suggestions I can only assume all bookies are cowards. 

I don't want to roll it over. I want to do it backwards sideways and up and down. If that makes sense. 

But on a positive note, it would appear that the bookmakers think we're going to win our next 6 games 

The bookmakers don't think about the likelihood of anything in sport happening. Punters do.

Edited by 1902

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4 hours ago, dylanisabaddog said:

Having followed up your suggestions I can only assume all bookies are cowards. 

I don't want to roll it over. I want to do it backwards sideways and up and down. If that makes sense. 

But on a positive note, it would appear that the bookmakers think we're going to win our next 6 games 

If you want to find out the official reasoning why they won't give you the bet dylan then you need to do some research into what is known in the trade as 'related contingencies'.  

You could still do the bet on Betfair and cover all the singles, doubles, trebles, fourfolds, fivefolds and the acca, but it would take a bit of messing about. On the flip side, you'd get better odds doing it that way than you ever would with a standard bookmaker. Just out of interest what stake were you thinking of putting on each individual part of the bet - or if it's easier, how much were you wanting to stake in total? 

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It’s a bit of a sod but bookies won’t allow you to run up stuff like this. They also wouldn’t let you bet a horse to win the 2000 Guineas and the Derby as a straight double. Say the horse was 20/1 ante post for both, there’s simply no way they’d lay at 440/1 for the double because should the horse win the Guineas, it would (likely) immediately become favourite for the Derby. They do on occasion offer a “one off” price for something like this but it would never represent the odds multiplied up for the two events. As others have said, the only way to do it is to roll up on singles (certainly with a high street firm) but you have to consider that if Norwich win their next 5 making it 12 in a row, they’re likely to be extremely prohibitive odds to make it 13. That trickles down too. The more consecutive games Norwich win, the more prohibitive the odds will become. Even if you thought we were a 1/2 shot to win our next 6 games individually, by the time we get to game 6 they’ll probably only be offering something like 1/4. Should you bet “rolling up”, you’d have to factor that in before deciding whether to continue or not as if it doesn’t represent a true likelihood of outcome, you’re better to quit ahead than risk the lot on a 1/4 shot that’s really a 1/2. I’m not sure I’ve explained myself particularly well but as Thirsty Lizard said, it’s about how the bookie views things. They perceive the outcomes as being related and Norwich are “more likely” to win the next game if they’ve won the last 3,4,5,6 or however many it is. As a guessed example, Watford at home we might, realistically be priced up now at, say, 4/5. If we’ve won the last dozen games and umpteen at home going into that fixture, we’d likely be 1/2 so there’s no way they’ll let you multiply up a series of games and give you that 4/5. To be honest, it’s a **** because it’s a bet they’ll win far more often than lose but ultimately they are managing their risk and they don’t want you to win. 
 

The more “legs” you include in a bet, the less likely you are to win, the more that can go wrong. That’s why betting shops print slips for multiple bets and where they produce (as betfred do) fixed odds for both teams to score as an example, they encourage you to put more and more selections in by being prohibitively short about doubles and trebles but offering enticing odds for say an 8 or 9 timer. The old adage used to be that if they print a ticket for it, you’re unlikely to win. When I worked in the industry I don’t think I ever paid out a both teams to score bet with more than 6 selections. 
 

I’m rambling. Anyway; good luck and I definitely hope we win our next 6 (and more) games. 👍

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Posted (edited)
8 hours ago, Thirsty Lizard said:

If you want to find out the official reasoning why they won't give you the bet dylan then you need to do some research into what is known in the trade as 'related contingencies'.  

You could still do the bet on Betfair and cover all the singles, doubles, trebles, fourfolds, fivefolds and the acca, but it would take a bit of messing about. On the flip side, you'd get better odds doing it that way than you ever would with a standard bookmaker. Just out of interest what stake were you thinking of putting on each individual part of the bet - or if it's easier, how much were you wanting to stake in total? 

I rarely bet and when I do it's never more than £20 (although I have a bigger bet each way bet on Leicester for the top 3 because the odds looked wrong to me). 

I feel fairly confident about the next 6 games so I'd stretch to a total bet of £25. If I lost that much I could just about live with it but any more and I'd have to seek counselling 😂

Thanks for your betfair suggestion. I'll have a look. 

Duncan has provided a fascinating insight into accumulaters above. I did speak to someone at Skybet yesterday who said no one had ever asked for a bet like that before. He'd taken the time to look at the fixtures and thought it looked interesting. But the main reason he wouldn't do it was the computer system wouldn't allow it. Nice guy who admitted that they love accumulaters because they make so much money out of them, confirming what Duncan has said. 

Edited by dylanisabaddog

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8 hours ago, Duncan Edwards said:

It’s a bit of a sod but bookies won’t allow you to run up stuff like this. They also wouldn’t let you bet a horse to win the 2000 Guineas and the Derby as a straight double. Say the horse was 20/1 ante post for both, there’s simply no way they’d lay at 440/1 for the double because should the horse win the Guineas, it would (likely) immediately become favourite for the Derby. They do on occasion offer a “one off” price for something like this but it would never represent the odds multiplied up for the two events. As others have said, the only way to do it is to roll up on singles (certainly with a high street firm) but you have to consider that if Norwich win their next 5 making it 12 in a row, they’re likely to be extremely prohibitive odds to make it 13. That trickles down too. The more consecutive games Norwich win, the more prohibitive the odds will become. Even if you thought we were a 1/2 shot to win our next 6 games individually, by the time we get to game 6 they’ll probably only be offering something like 1/4. Should you bet “rolling up”, you’d have to factor that in before deciding whether to continue or not as if it doesn’t represent a true likelihood of outcome, you’re better to quit ahead than risk the lot on a 1/4 shot that’s really a 1/2. I’m not sure I’ve explained myself particularly well but as Thirsty Lizard said, it’s about how the bookie views things. They perceive the outcomes as being related and Norwich are “more likely” to win the next game if they’ve won the last 3,4,5,6 or however many it is. As a guessed example, Watford at home we might, realistically be priced up now at, say, 4/5. If we’ve won the last dozen games and umpteen at home going into that fixture, we’d likely be 1/2 so there’s no way they’ll let you multiply up a series of games and give you that 4/5. To be honest, it’s a **** because it’s a bet they’ll win far more often than lose but ultimately they are managing their risk and they don’t want you to win. 
 

The more “legs” you include in a bet, the less likely you are to win, the more that can go wrong. That’s why betting shops print slips for multiple bets and where they produce (as betfred do) fixed odds for both teams to score as an example, they encourage you to put more and more selections in by being prohibitively short about doubles and trebles but offering enticing odds for say an 8 or 9 timer. The old adage used to be that if they print a ticket for it, you’re unlikely to win. When I worked in the industry I don’t think I ever paid out a both teams to score bet with more than 6 selections. 
 

I’m rambling. Anyway; good luck and I definitely hope we win our next 6 (and more) games. 👍

As someone who also used to work in the industry, I can confirm this post is absolutely spot on.

No betting company would ever take a bet like the one you want to place unless it some sort of special as it's a related bet (of sorts) and they wouldn't offer odds on league games beyond the next one (or maybe two).

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14 hours ago, dylanisabaddog said:

Having followed up your suggestions I can only assume all bookies are cowards. 

I don't want to roll it over. I want to do it backwards sideways and up and down. If that makes sense. 

But on a positive note, it would appear that the bookmakers think we're going to win our next 6 games 

Thy're not cowards, they just don't price up matches, 3/4/5 weeks in advance.

The bet you'd want to place would contain 63 bets in total and at even split would cost you £31.50 for 50p bet, considering Norwich will be prohibitive odds accross the next 6 games you potential returns wouldn't be very high.

No sure this is a case of 'related contingency' whereby one selection directly impacts the next selection though;

So Dunc's example is spot on a horse that wins the Guineas is more likley to win the Derby.

That's not strictly true in football, if we beat Sheff Wed on Sunday it doesn't make us more likely to beat Forest.

Its just a case of there being two many factors to offer a price on a football match 3/4/5 weeks away, when so much can change, not just for us but for the teams around us.

 

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Sort of the same subject - and without starting another thread . 
 

I was keen to back the Binners NOT going up. This was some time ago. Sky and 365 wouldn’t offer . So I tried Betfair Exchange - and I could lay the bet off . But I got completely lost in “liabilities” and so on? 
 

anyone use the exchanges ? Are they any good? 

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I'd be tempted to put an acca on 11 wins this season but believe only way to get money on will be to place 11 singles on each match.    

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Posted (edited)

Owls (a) 8/15

Forest (a) 4/5

Blackburn (h) 4/11

Preston (a) 4/6

Huddersfield (h) 2/7

Derby (a) 10/11

£ 10 for around £170 odd and maybe a lot more. Derby and Huddersfield fighting relegation may result in better prices. 

first match are actual odds but that’s my guess for the 5 after. You’ll probably end up winning more doing it the boring way (rolling over) than asking for a novelty bet price. 

Edited by Midlands Yellow

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23 minutes ago, Graham Paddons Beard said:

Sort of the same subject - and without starting another thread . 
 

I was keen to back the Binners NOT going up. This was some time ago. Sky and 365 wouldn’t offer . So I tried Betfair Exchange - and I could lay the bet off . But I got completely lost in “liabilities” and so on? 
 

anyone use the exchanges ? Are they any good? 

The exchange let's you become the bookmaker. 

You can 'lay' Ipswich to be promoted. 

You'd allow people who wanted to back Ipswich to be be promoted to bet against you. 

 

Say Ipswich are 2/1 to be promoted 

And you wanted to allow someone to place £10 on them to be promoted 

Your liability would be £20.

 

If Ipswich are promoted you lose £20

If they are not promoted you win £10.

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8 minutes ago, CDMullins said:

The exchange let's you become the bookmaker. 

You can 'lay' Ipswich to be promoted. 

You'd allow people who wanted to back Ipswich to be be promoted to bet against you. 

 

Say Ipswich are 2/1 to be promoted 

And you wanted to allow someone to place £10 on them to be promoted 

Your liability would be £20.

 

If Ipswich are promoted you lose £20

If they are not promoted you win £10.

Nice and clear . Thanks 

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53 minutes ago, Graham Paddons Beard said:

Sort of the same subject - and without starting another thread . 
 

I was keen to back the Binners NOT going up. This was some time ago. Sky and 365 wouldn’t offer . So I tried Betfair Exchange - and I could lay the bet off . But I got completely lost in “liabilities” and so on? 
 

anyone use the exchanges ? Are they any good? 

If you are in any way serious about betting GPB you should ALWAYS go to the exchanges first - because 90% of the time you will get a better price on there than you would with a mainstream bookie. That having been said - you should ALWAYS shop around for the best price because occasionally you can find a better price with a mainstream bookie.

Over and above that, make sure you understand what you're doing before placing any bet. CD Mullins has given you a clear basic outline about laying a bet - but you also need to bear in mind that you will have to pay a commission to the exchange (typically 5% for new punters on Betfair) of any winnings that you make so you have to factor that in to your calculations as well. 

You also should look into how the exchanges work - you don't just have to take the current back or lay price that is available there - you can always ask for a price - the price you ask for may get matched or not. 

 

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11 minutes ago, Thirsty Lizard said:

If you are in any way serious about betting GPB you should ALWAYS go to the exchanges first - because 90% of the time you will get a better price on there than you would with a mainstream bookie. That having been said - you should ALWAYS shop around for the best price because occasionally you can find a better price with a mainstream bookie.

Over and above that, make sure you understand what you're doing before placing any bet. CD Mullins has given you a clear basic outline about laying a bet - but you also need to bear in mind that you will have to pay a commission to the exchange (typically 5% for new punters on Betfair) of any winnings that you make so you have to factor that in to your calculations as well. 

You also should look into how the exchanges work - you don't just have to take the current back or lay price that is available there - you can always ask for a price - the price you ask for may get matched or not. 

 

Spot on, the Forest match is trading at 6/5 on the Norwich win today. That is very generous and as you say you can ask for an even better price. 

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Duncan's spot on with the acca information. It can be confusing, especially on the markets within a single match. On PUPs I'm often searching around to find trebles that can't be bet. As has been said one event changes the chances of another. To put simply if before kickoff a player was 4/1 to score the first goal and 25/1 to score a hat-trick they would never take that as a double because once he's scored one the odds of three are greatly reduced.

As an aside in the week that Brentford were about to be crowned champions one of our PUPs sent me £90 to put a fiver on City to win in each of their remaining 18 games. This is the returns from the first seven...

9.17
9.55
7.5
8.37
6.81
10.75
7

PUPpower is a wonderful thing.....

💛⚽💚💪

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4 hours ago, Graham Paddons Beard said:

Sort of the same subject - and without starting another thread . 
 

I was keen to back the Binners NOT going up. This was some time ago. Sky and 365 wouldn’t offer . So I tried Betfair Exchange - and I could lay the bet off . But I got completely lost in “liabilities” and so on? 
 

anyone use the exchanges ? Are they any good? 

yep, they are fine - and unlike the FI scam there is nothing to fear about their being a scam

if it is just a one off bet, ie us to win the title then you will more than likely get a better price

if you want to have some fun, testing yourself against others and your predictions then they are a great place for that

just remember to see it for what it is... a bit of fun, not any money making scheme - otherwise, enjoy

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8 hours ago, Graham Paddons Beard said:

Sort of the same subject - and without starting another thread . 
 

I was keen to back the Binners NOT going up. This was some time ago. Sky and 365 wouldn’t offer . So I tried Betfair Exchange - and I could lay the bet off . But I got completely lost in “liabilities” and so on? 
 

anyone use the exchanges ? Are they any good? 

Just to add to the replies already made, you can offer to take a bet on an exchange site but there obviously needs to be someone prepared to make the bet. So if there is no one prepared to gamble on Ipswich going up you won't have a bet. And you have to deposit the money you would have to pay out if the bet made against you is successful. 

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35 minutes ago, dylanisabaddog said:

Just to add to the replies already made, you can offer to take a bet on an exchange site but there obviously needs to be someone prepared to make the bet. So if there is no one prepared to gamble on Ipswich going up you won't have a bet. And you have to deposit the money you would have to pay out if the bet made against you is successful. 

Yes, that' correct - you have to have the funds deposited to cover your liabilities. Therefore you will usually have to tie up a lot more money if you are laying a bet on an exchange than if you are backing (unless it's an odds on shot in which case it's the other way round). 

Of course you could lay Ipswich for promotion and then just back them at a higher price when they lose their next couple of games and the price has drifted 🙂. That way you lock in a guaranteed profit and you don't have to leave your money tied up until the end of the season when the market is settled. (Obviously the above strategy won't work in the unlikely event of Ipswich winning their next couple of games 😉 ). 

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You can now place 2 legs of your desired bet. Bet365 have improved the Wednesday match odds now 4/7. To win at Forest is 19/20, pretty much what I forecasted. This related double is allowed. 

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6 minutes ago, Midlands Yellow said:

You can now place 2 legs of your desired bet. Bet365 have improved the Wednesday match odds now 4/7. To win at Forest is 19/20, pretty much what I forecasted. This related double is allowed. 

Thanks! Looked on Sky and they let me do the same but I only got 8/15 on the Wednesday match. I had £2.50 in my account so saved messing about with 365. Sky are probably having a high level meeting at the moment deciding how much to lay off 😂

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Suggest you contact this guy. He knows how to do it.

So he has dilema then, cash out now for £275,000 or hope his last leg of the bet wins at Cheltenham tomorrow.

If it does he collects £511,225, if it doesn't he loses everything.

What would you do?????????????????????????

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I would take the £275,000 then if I felt confident put 50 - 75000 back on. If he is letting it run, I hope he took prices rather than SP as when they start laying that bet off the price will drop dramatically.

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