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Cantiaci Canary

The much heralded 90 points mark

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Does anyone think that with Watford, Brentford, Swansea and us being clearly stronger than the rest of the league (and in Swansea's case luckier too!) there's a real chance of more than a couple of teams breaking the 90 points ceiling after 46 games?

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Watford would have to win 8 of their remaining  11

Swansea 9 of their 13

Brentford 9 of their 12

 

 

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I don't see them doing it especially as there are games between them. 

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'97-'98 season saw the top 3 teams on 94 (Forest), 91(Middlesboro')  & 90 points (Sunderland) with 4th placed Charlton on 88 !

[ Same season that Man City got relegated to League 1 or whatever it was called back then ]

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84 will get top 2 this season imo, 90 gets you the title. Its a case of when not if now. 

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Seems unlikely just purely due to the head to heads, they cant all win every match. Whats also worth noting is that Watford have to come to us and we owe them one...

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34 minutes ago, Crabbycanary3 said:

I have pledged £50 to the CSF if 3 or more teams get to 90 points this season. 

Don't  worry, no possibility of you having to pay. 

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I think we’ll need more than 84, the three teams chasing are now picking up their game and luck is certainly helping Swansea, three might not make 90 points but I think they’ll be three who are close to that mark.....but who knows?

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I predict that a couple of teams will be around 86 points. It's not beyond the realms of possibility that one of them might go on an exceptional run and pick up 25 points for a total of around 91. I just can't see *two* of them doing it.

Brentford have lost 4 out of 6 so hardly on great form. Swansea have a lot of games to play so I doubt they will be able to sustain their good fortune. Watford do look good, but it's still a significant upturn on their overall form that's required to get that many points.

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Any team playing Swansea will have to aim to be 2 goals ahead by the 90th to get a win.

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Posted (edited)

Dont think we can discount the fact that without fans in stadiums ...mid table teams could well be on the beach in record time this season, without the need to be accountable for their fans at a game, what motivation is there?

You can therefore see Watford and other teams at the top winning most of their remaining games...even when Swansea are looking like they might drop points vs a mid table team, theyre bailed out by the ref. ...the only points those teams might drop will be against another team at the top

This could make for a higher than normal points requirement

Edited by GJL Mid-Norfolk Canary

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Posted (edited)

I take a simple view that 2 points/game is automatic promotion form. With typically 11 to 13 games left that is still a good a average guide.

So Watford 66 + 22 = 88

Swansea 65 + 26 = 91

Brentford 63 + 24 = 87

As only 1 of these is likely to meet this average from here (2pts/game is auto promotion form) 87 or 88 points would be enough.

4 wins needed.

Edited by Yellow Fever

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1 hour ago, K Lo said:

'97-'98 season saw the top 3 teams on 94 (Forest), 91(Middlesboro')  & 90 points (Sunderland) with 4th placed Charlton on 88 !

[ Same season that Man City got relegated to League 1 or whatever it was called back then ]

Wow! What a season!

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1 hour ago, birchfest said:

Seems unlikely just purely due to the head to heads, they cant all win every match. Whats also worth noting is that Watford have to come to us and we owe them one...

True, but Brentford and Swansea only have one head to head with any of those top 4 clubs.

I know they won't all win every game and I'm certain that City are virtually home and hosed but it's interesting to think how many points each of the top 4 will accrue!

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I struggle to see it happening.

Watford would need 8 wins from 11 games - and this run-in looks tricky

Cardiff(A) Rotherham(A) Birmingham(H) Sheff Wed(H)  Middlesboro(A) Reading(H) Luton(A) Norwich(A) Millwall(H) Brentford(A) Swansea (H)

I think Swansea's fixture congestion is going to catch up with them at some point, and Brentford have lost 4 from their last 6.

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Watched the Watford game today. They looked very good in the first half and very bad in the second. With a bit more luck and a bit more ambition from Mr Hughton (where have I heard that before) Forest would have got at least a point. So many teams in this division are not prepared to give it a go. At least Luton tried today.

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12 hours ago, K Lo said:

'97-'98 season saw the top 3 teams on 94 (Forest), 91(Middlesboro')  & 90 points (Sunderland) with 4th placed Charlton on 88 !

[ Same season that Man City got relegated to League 1 or whatever it was called back then ]

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Posted (edited)
1 minute ago, Graham Paddons Beard said:
12 hours ago, K Lo said:

'97-'98 season saw the top 3 teams on 94 (Forest), 91(Middlesboro')  & 90 points (Sunderland) with 4th placed Charlton on 88 !

[ Same season that Man City got relegated to League 1 or whatever it was called back then ]

Does anyone know why this happened? Presumably teams at the bottom were poor? It just seems such an anomaly and nothing like it has happened since? 

Edited by Graham Paddons Beard

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13 hours ago, Cantiaci Canary said:

Does anyone think that with Watford, Brentford, Swansea and us being clearly stronger than the rest of the league (and in Swansea's case luckier too!) there's a real chance of more than a couple of teams breaking the 90 points ceiling after 46 games?

🤔

Looking at last year after 35 games the top 3 teams had 69, 65 and 60 points . The bottom teams had 34,33 and 25 (bottom was Wigan not sure if there is a points deduction in there) 

This year the top three have 76, 66 and 65 - the bottom clubs have 32,28 and 23 albeit they haven’t played 35 games (Rotherham only 32) but it SEEMS to suggest the top teams are getting more points  . 
 

2018 year we went up after 35 games was more like this year 

top three (we were top) 69,67,67 bottom 31,26,21(binners). 
 

Suggests this years top teams might get higher than average points ? 
 

We would still be statistically unbelievably unlucky not to go up on 90 points. 

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Just now, Graham Paddons Beard said:

Thanks . High scoring points season- even Charlton in 4th got 88 which would often take you up. Teams at the bottom look about normal. Strange . 

If I had the time, I'd do a points distribution curve, with points plotted against team's position and also sum the total points and work out the average pts/gameband then the std deviation from that average. Should give you a good picture where the points have been won/lost.

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I said in another thread that I think 86 will be enough to get a team up. The condensed nature of the season has well and truly kicked in now and I think you're going to see a lot of very tired teams. The ones that are a bit less bothered with injuries or/and have more strength in depth will probably finish far better.

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On current form, I think us and Swansea will be the only 2 to breach 90 points

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On ‎06‎/‎03‎/‎2021 at 20:40, GJL Mid-Norfolk Canary said:

Dont think we can discount the fact that without fans in stadiums ...mid table teams could well be on the beach in record time this season, without the need to be accountable for their fans at a game, what motivation is there?

You can therefore see Watford and other teams at the top winning most of their remaining games...even when Swansea are looking like they might drop points vs a mid table team, theyre bailed out by the ref. ...the only points those teams might drop will be against another team at the top

This could make for a higher than normal points requirement

Good point.  It'll be interesting to see how it goes from here.  Personally I'm not really convinced by Swansea, Watford or Brentford and I can see none of them getting to 90 points.  But at the same time I can see some teams, especially mid-table, folding over the last few games due to lack of fans.  In which case things could still be a bit interesting.


Can't see us losing it from here TBH.

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It would be nice to beat Leeds' 93 (?) last season. Not that that would stop Bielsa being the best manager in the history of football ever of course.

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I have a hunch we'll need 89 to guarantee second and 92 to win it. For what that's worth – which isn't very much.

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