6 more wins

[Daz Sparks 1,147]

One things for sure, I'd sooner be us than Brentford, Swansea or Watford.

[Indy 3,283]

6 minutes ago, Daz Sparks said:

One things for sure, I'd sooner be us than Brentford, Swansea or Watford.

Why can’t we be Norwich!?😉

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

21 minutes ago, Indy said:

Why can’t we be Norwich!?😉

Int we Naaarridge anymore?

[Cantiaci Canary 556]

1 hour ago, Move Klose said:

To get to 90 points:

NCFC - 20 points from 13 games, 1.54 PPG (W6, D2, L5)

BFC - 27 points from 13 games, 2.08 PPG (W8, D3, L2)

WFC - 30 points from 13 games, 2.31 PPG (W9, D3, L1)

SCFC - 31 points from 15 games, 2.07 PPG (W9, D4, L2)

 

 

I know I'm paranoid but I can see Brentford and Swansea achieving this! 😅

[1902 1,167]

12 clean sheets (I believe) this season makes me feel a lot more comfortable tbh. It would take a brave man to bet that a side with a defence playing that will won't get 20 points from 13 games.

[chicken 2,604]

1 hour ago, Move Klose said:

To get to 90 points:

NCFC - 20 points from 13 games, 1.54 PPG (W6, D2, L5)

BFC - 27 points from 13 games, 2.08 PPG (W8, D3, L2)

WFC - 30 points from 13 games, 2.31 PPG (W9, D3, L1)

SCFC - 31 points from 15 games, 2.07 PPG (W9, D4, L2)

This is the key, however, what is important to note is the following:

The next game day sees - Norwich (us) Vs Brentford, Watford Vs Wycombe and Stoke Vs Swansea. Another big day.

Then we go on a run of 7 games before meeting another top 6 side; Luton (H), Shef Wed (A), Not Forrest (A), Blackburn (H), Preston (A), Huddersfield (H), Derby (A). The Derby game is the 10th April.

In the time Brentford play: Rotherham (H), Blackburn (A), Derby (A), Nottingham Forrest (H), Huddersfield (A), Birmingham (H) and Preston (A).
Watford play: Not Forrest (H), Cardiff (A), Rotherham (A), Birmingham (H), Shef Wed (H), Middlesbro (A), Reading (H).
Swansea play: Middlesbro (H), Blackburn (A), Luton (A), Bournemouth (A), Cardiff (H), Birmingham (A), Preston (H) and Millwall (A).

At this point the Norwich, Brentford and Watford will all have played 8 games, Swansea 9 and still have a game in hand on the others. That will leave 5 and 6 games left respectively.

That is the run where we need to pick up points. People are saying 6-7 wins almost as if it is a formality. Our last five games look like this:


Four, what could be, tricky games to navigate.

Last five for other teams:
Brentford: Millwall (H), Cardiff (H), Bournemouth (A), Watford (H), Bristol (A). 
Watford: Luton (A), Norwich (A), Millwall (H), Brentford (A), Swansea (H).
Swansea: Wycombe (H), QPR (H), Reading (A), Derby (H), Watford (A).

There is far too much left to be played for to be predicting anything. The number of times the teams in the current top six have to play each other in the last five games could yet be a huge deciding factor. It puts further emphasis on the next 8 games and what happens in that time.

If we are talking about 90 points. We can win four of the next 8 and be on 82 points needing 8 points from our last 5 games. Which is far from easy. Utterly doable but you don't want to put that much emphasis on those last five games. Potentially all bar QPR fighting hard still for play off or auto promotion spots. 

[Crabbycanary3 994]

4 minutes ago, chicken said:

This is the key, however, what is important to note is the following:

The next game day sees - Norwich (us) Vs Brentford, Watford Vs Wycombe and Stoke Vs Swansea. Another big day.

Then we go on a run of 7 games before meeting another top 6 side; Luton (H), Shef Wed (A), Not Forrest (A), Blackburn (H), Preston (A), Huddersfield (H), Derby (A). The Derby game is the 10th April.

In the time Brentford play: Rotherham (H), Blackburn (A), Derby (A), Nottingham Forrest (H), Huddersfield (A), Birmingham (H) and Preston (A).
Watford play: Not Forrest (H), Cardiff (A), Rotherham (A), Birmingham (H), Shef Wed (H), Middlesbro (A), Reading (H).
Swansea play: Middlesbro (H), Blackburn (A), Luton (A), Bournemouth (A), Cardiff (H), Birmingham (A), Preston (H) and Millwall (A).

At this point the Norwich, Brentford and Watford will all have played 8 games, Swansea 9 and still have a game in hand on the others. That will leave 5 and 6 games left respectively.

That is the run where we need to pick up points. People are saying 6-7 wins almost as if it is a formality. Our last five games look like this:


Four, what could be, tricky games to navigate.

Last five for other teams:
Brentford: Millwall (H), Cardiff (H), Bournemouth (A), Watford (H), Bristol (A). 
Watford: Luton (A), Norwich (A), Millwall (H), Brentford (A), Swansea (H).
Swansea: Wycombe (H), QPR (H), Reading (A), Derby (H), Watford (A).

There is far too much left to be played for to be predicting anything. The number of times the teams in the current top six have to play each other in the last five games could yet be a huge deciding factor. It puts further emphasis on the next 8 games and what happens in that time.

If we are talking about 90 points. We can win four of the next 8 and be on 82 points needing 8 points from our last 5 games. Which is far from easy. Utterly doable but you don't want to put that much emphasis on those last five games. Potentially all bar QPR fighting hard still for play off or auto promotion spots. 

You're predicting that it isn't going to be straightforward though🤷‍♂️

[Petriix 2,834]

For anyone other than us to reach 90 points would require a significant improvement on both their overall and recent form. Watford's best 13 game period this season gained them 26 points (8 wins, two draws and 3 defeats), Swansea managed 30 points (9 wins, 3 draws and 1 defeat).

I could see Brentford going on a phenomenal run and pipping us to the title, but I can't see either Swansea or Watford getting beyond 86 points.

[Tetteys Jig 830]

53 minutes ago, Cantiaci Canary said:

I know I'm paranoid but I can see Brentford and Swansea achieving this! 😅

that's not paranoid, that's realistic hence that's our target.

Paranoid would be thinking they win all their remaining games

[chicken 2,604]

2 hours ago, Crabbycanary3 said:

You're predicting that it isn't going to be straightforward though🤷‍♂️

Yup. That's what I said.

[Yellow Fever 3,742]

One game at a time.

Usually it's only at the end of the season once promoted you can look back and say 5 points or so less would of done it as other teams fail to get max points.

Nervy times until mathematically impossible. 90 I'm sure will get us safely promoted but 85 when looking back may of been enough.

No complacency.

[HazzaJet 252]

18 hours ago, chicken said:

This is the key, however, what is important to note is the following:

The next game day sees - Norwich (us) Vs Brentford, Watford Vs Wycombe and Stoke Vs Swansea. Another big day.

Then we go on a run of 7 games before meeting another top 6 side; Luton (H), Shef Wed (A), Not Forrest (A), Blackburn (H), Preston (A), Huddersfield (H), Derby (A). The Derby game is the 10th April.

In the time Brentford play: Rotherham (H), Blackburn (A), Derby (A), Nottingham Forrest (H), Huddersfield (A), Birmingham (H) and Preston (A).
Watford play: Not Forrest (H), Cardiff (A), Rotherham (A), Birmingham (H), Shef Wed (H), Middlesbro (A), Reading (H).
Swansea play: Middlesbro (H), Blackburn (A), Luton (A), Bournemouth (A), Cardiff (H), Birmingham (A), Preston (H) and Millwall (A).

At this point the Norwich, Brentford and Watford will all have played 8 games, Swansea 9 and still have a game in hand on the others. That will leave 5 and 6 games left respectively.

That is the run where we need to pick up points. People are saying 6-7 wins almost as if it is a formality. Our last five games look like this:


Four, what could be, tricky games to navigate.

Last five for other teams:
Brentford: Millwall (H), Cardiff (H), Bournemouth (A), Watford (H), Bristol (A). 
Watford: Luton (A), Norwich (A), Millwall (H), Brentford (A), Swansea (H).
Swansea: Wycombe (H), QPR (H), Reading (A), Derby (H), Watford (A).

There is far too much left to be played for to be predicting anything. The number of times the teams in the current top six have to play each other in the last five games could yet be a huge deciding factor. It puts further emphasis on the next 8 games and what happens in that time.

If we are talking about 90 points. We can win four of the next 8 and be on 82 points needing 8 points from our last 5 games. Which is far from easy. Utterly doable but you don't want to put that much emphasis on those last five games. Potentially all bar QPR fighting hard still for play off or auto promotion spots. 

Agreed chicken. All the teams in the league still have at least 13 games left to play, and the number of fixtures still to play between the current top six is a major issue as the results from those games could have a huge effect on how the table finishes. At the moment I reckon 7 wins from our remaining 13 games will do it, we just need to see how we and the teams around us do over the next few weeks 

[Banjoman 38]

21 hours ago, ricardo said:

I am not sure that it has ever happened that 3 teams get 90 plus. I think Brighton got 89 about five years ago but third place average is usually about 85 points.

Sunderland finished third with 90 points in 1998. That's the only time I think.

I agree with most of the posters it's not likely to happen this year! Still, not getting complacent. 

[Petriix 2,834]

So, after the massive three points against Brentford, I'm certain that 88 points will be enough for promotion; both Watford and Brentford require 25 more points to reach 88 at over 2 points per game. That's just five more wins for us. And here we are lined up to play the teams in positions 13, 14, 15, 16, 18, 19 and 23 (not quite in that order) as our next 7 games. Given our recent form, I just can't see us failing to pick up at least 12 points from these in the worst case with 15 being easily achievable. We could well have the pressure off before our final 5 tougher games.

Edited March 5, 2021 by Petriix

[Downloads 35]

We've got 3 good chances coming up too - Luton, Shef Weds, Forrest

[My spoon is too big! 21]

OK, so some quick back of an envelope calculations. Assuming 90 points is the benchmark for promotion.

Norwich can do about a third worse than they are doing currently and still get to 90 points.

Brentford and Watford need to do about 18% better than they are currently doing to get to 90 points. If they keep doing as well as their average they'll get to 85/86 points each.

Swansea need to only make a small improvement in order to be on track for 90 points. If they maintain their average they'll get to 89 points. This all depends on how well they manage to deal with a more congested fixture list.

If we maintain our average points per game we'll end with 98 or 99 points. Obviously nothing's certain, but the door is open and we'd have to trip up pretty badly not to walk through it.

Edited March 5, 2021 by My spoon is too big!

[Pukki Blinders 96]

We now have a run of 7 straight games against teams currently in the bottom half. Obviously there are no easy games at this level, and teams like Luton and Forest who we have coming up are going to be really tricky ties, but with the run we're on there's no reason why we couldn't have promotion basically sewn up by the end of those fixtures. If we can pick up say 16 points (5 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss), that would take us to 89 points with 5 games left, and that would be game over as far as the title race is concerned.

Brentford have similar remaining fixtures to us, but Swansea and Watford seem to have tougher run-ins. As said above, Farke won't be taking it as a given, but I cannot see us dropping off from here (famous last words).

[Canary73 150]

Brentford's game tomorrow against Rotherham has been postponed because of a positive Covid-19 test in the Millers' squad. The rearranged game is scheduled for 27 April so they will be hoping that Watford & Swansea don't take advantage. 

[Mullet 293]

On 28/02/2021 at 14:45, Petriix said:

That's all we need. 6 wins and a couple of draws takes us to 90 points. Watford would need 10 wins (or 9 with 3 draws), similar from Swansea, albeit with another two games in hand. Brentford need 8 or 9 wins.

I can see one of those teams doing it, but not two. Third place is likely to be around 85 points.

We can afford to drop points in half our remaining games. Incredibly, after Brentford, we have 7 games in a row against currently bottom-half teams. We could well find ourselves on or around 90 points before our final 5 fixtures, even if we lose to the Bees.

We've been excellent at consistently picking up the points against the lower teams, with just a couple of blips. We're incredibly close to getting over the line. One final push required.

As it stands we need 9 wins to guarantee promotion, 11 wins to be champions. That obviously changes in our favour if Brentford, Watford and Swansea drop points

Edited March 5, 2021 by Mullet

[Petriix 2,834]

3 minutes ago, Mullet said:

As it stands we need 9 wins to guarantee promotion, 11 wins to be champions. That obviously changes in our favour if Brentford, Watford and Swansea drop points

Yes, but two other teams aren't suddenly going to win 12 games in a row.

[Icecream Snow 761]

2 hours ago, Canary73 said:

Brentford's game tomorrow against Rotherham has been postponed because of a positive Covid-19 test in the Millers' squad. The rearranged game is scheduled for 27 April so they will be hoping that Watford & Swansea don't take advantage. 

It's a kick in the teeth for Brentford as they're away to Bournemouth on April 24th and have Watford at home on May 1st.

The rearranged fixture on April 27th means Watford get extra rest time to prepare as they won't have a midweek fixture.

[Hank shoots Skyler 2,094]

On 28/02/2021 at 17:35, chicken said:

Norwich (us)

Thank you for clarifying.

[Petriix 2,834]

On 28/02/2021 at 14:45, Petriix said:

That's all we need. 6 wins and a couple of draws takes us to 90 points. Watford would need 10 wins (or 9 with 3 draws), similar from Swansea, albeit with another two games in hand. Brentford need 8 or 9 wins.

I can see one of those teams doing it, but not two. Third place is likely to be around 85 points.

We can afford to drop points in half our remaining games. Incredibly, after Brentford, we have 7 games in a row against currently bottom-half teams. We could well find ourselves on or around 90 points before our final 5 fixtures, even if we lose to the Bees.

We've been excellent at consistently picking up the points against the lower teams, with just a couple of blips. We're incredibly close to getting over the line. One final push required.

6 wins and two draws later, here we are on 90 points with 5 games to go.

[ricardo 7,341]

3 hours ago, Petriix said:

6 wins and two draws later, here we are on 90 points with 5 games to go.

Please consult your crystal ball again.

All I need now is 6 numbers for Wednesday night.👍

[Indy 3,283]

2 hours ago, ricardo said:

Please consult your crystal ball again.

All I need now is 6 numbers for Wednesday night.👍

All you really need is six correct numbers Ricardo! If you want just 6 numbers then here you go, 7, 13, 16, 28, 39, 47.....😉😂

[ricardo 7,341]

3 minutes ago, Indy said:

All you really need is six correct numbers Ricardo! If you want just 6 numbers then here you go, 7, 13, 16, 28, 39, 47.....😉😂

I'll give em a go👍