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Alex Moss

Brentford predictions

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26 minutes ago, Icecream Snow said:

Depends which Brentford shows up, they seem to be great chasing but seem to go to pieces under pressure..

If they'd won one of their final two games last season they'd be in the Premiership now (they lost both of them), and their three game losing streak coincided with them going top.

Think Brentford will win, but it should be close and I'm more concerned about the seven games we have directly after that.

As the team top of the league, that have won the most and lost the least, I think it depends on which Norwich shows up. 🤔

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8 hours ago, Midlands Yellow said:

You’ve made it on to their message board btw. 

I’m guessing the 4-1 City win hasn’t gone down well then? How weird, Norwich supporter backs our top of the table team to do the business in style! 😝. Won’t be changing my gut prediction to please them, MY, but as long as we do the business I really don’t mind whether it’s 1-0 or 10-0!

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12 hours ago, sgncfc said:

I doubt that, but you never know. I think things have changed financially for a few years and one season scoring goals in the Championship may not be enough to persuade anyone to part with £30m. If it were that easy we'd have had similar offers for Pukki in 2019 - we didn't.

Toney is young, English and prolific.  He also is not merely a goal poacher.  He has been involved in more goals than anyone else in the division.  So far this season he has scored 25 goals and contributed 9 assists.  He is second only to Buendia (10) in assists.  

Several PL clubs are crying out for a player with his attributes.  If he goes in the summer I have little doubt it will be for £30m+.

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If we can keep a clean sheet as we did when we played them away then a home win is very realistic.

Brentford have goals in them but they also have one of the weakest defensive records of any side in the top 6.

The second element at work is psychological, indeed most of the Brentford side still remembers their self inflicted implosion in the last few games of last year. 

That mental collapse is still on their minds.

They might have one or two new faces, but the bulk of their side are the ones who choked last time out.  

Farke is right to make his emphasis about steel.He is really talking about mental preparation and the mental approach of his side. It has been a theme of his in recent weeks and rightly so. 

The difference in this fixture, with such closely matched sides might not be about footballing talent but mentality. 

Farke can be curiously philosophical at times, but in this regard he is absolutely right to ensure his side is approaching every game with the most useful mindset. One of steely resolve.  

Home win or a Draw. 

 

Edited by Bonzo
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In football I recall that goals win you games but defence wins you titles- in general a good defence tends to trump a good attack (and we aren't  exactly goal shy).

Good work so far means we can accept a draw as a decent result but I'm strangely optimistic for Wednesday- so Luton can bring us typically crashing down at the weekend 😅

Edited by Mason 47

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12 hours ago, ged in the onion bag said:

Are you winding the bee up!!!

Possibly......we know their team crack under pressure; I wondered if their supporters do too.

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47 minutes ago, norfolkbroadslim said:

Toney is young, English and prolific.  He also is not merely a goal poacher.  He has been involved in more goals than anyone else in the division.  So far this season he has scored 25 goals and contributed 9 assists.  He is second only to Buendia (10) in assists.  

Several PL clubs are crying out for a player with his attributes.  If he goes in the summer I have little doubt it will be for £30m+.

Well, we could keep this discussion going for ever - Toney so far has had one season of success in League One, for a team which didn't go up, and two thirds of a season of success in a Championship of quite poor quality during a behind closed doors season. If he leaves it will again be because his team didn't go up. How will he do in front of 75,000 at Old Trafford or even 27,000 baying Norwich fans? Not a clue. But with money tight, and £30m probably representing most if not all of the  lower half of the Premier League clubs transfer budget, that's a hell of a gamble. 

They might get that with some pretty harsh add ons, but the clubs that will be interested in him don't tend to spend that big. Leicester maybe as a Vardy replacement, but I can't immediately think of anyone else with that kind of financial clout who need that type of player. Leeds perhaps as a Bamford upgrade, but £30m would be a lot for them when their £27m forward barely gets a game.

Which "several" clubs are you thinking of with £30m+ to spend on one player?

 

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30 minutes ago, Bonzo said:

If we can keep a clean sheet as we did when we played them away then a home win is very realistic.

Brentford have goals in them but they also have one of the weakest defensive records of any side in the top 6.

The second element at work is psychological, indeed most of the Brentford side still remembers their self inflicted implosion in the last few games of last year. 

That mental collapse is still on their minds.

They might have one or two new faces, but the bulk of their side are the ones who choked last time out.  

Farke is right to make his emphasis about steel.He is really talking about mental preparation and the mental approach of his side. It has been a theme of his in recent weeks and rightly so. 

The difference in this fixture, with such closely matched sides might not be about footballing talent but mentality. 

Farke can be curiously philosophical at times, but in this regard he is absolutely right to ensure his side is approaching every game with the most useful mindset. One of steely resolve.  

Home win or a Draw. 

 

This is my feeling. Sure, Toney’s a good striker at this level, though it remains to be seen what he can or can’t do at a higher level. I’m sure we’ll find out in the summer if a Prem team comes in for him (I’ll make a guess - Watford). But we have a striker that’s long proven in this league and internationally (and the Prem, up until his toe injury he was one of the most talked about players in the league let’s not forget). Pukki is also the leagues most in form striker currently - 7 goals in the last 5 appearances. He is certainly ‘back on it’. Considering he’s missed a few games this season, he’s doing very well on the score charts and against a Brentford back line that isn’t exactly resilient I really can’t see us only putting away 1goal. When we’ve played the teams that are lower in the division, many a time they’ve played a game of park the bus, which in my mind is a tougher kind of game than Brentford, but 9/10 we come through that hence our league position. Brentford won’t park the bus - they simply can’t afford to. I think that spells trouble for them myself. As stated earlier, we know full well from our game away on the last day of the season at Fulham nearly 20 years ago what happens when a team gets more desperate. Obviously we want to win, but knowing that a draw really doesn’t hurt us, but it would almost certainly hurt them, then they need to ‘have a go’. It could be carnage. 4-1 carnage 😜

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17 minutes ago, Alex Moss said:

This is my feeling. Sure, Toney’s a good striker at this level, though it remains to be seen what he can or can’t do at a higher level. I’m sure we’ll find out in the summer if a Prem team comes in for him (I’ll make a guess - Watford). But we have a striker that’s long proven in this league and internationally (and the Prem, up until his toe injury he was one of the most talked about players in the league let’s not forget). Pukki is also the leagues most in form striker currently - 7 goals in the last 5 appearances. He is certainly ‘back on it’. Considering he’s missed a few games this season, he’s doing very well on the score charts and against a Brentford back line that isn’t exactly resilient I really can’t see us only putting away 1goal. When we’ve played the teams that are lower in the division, many a time they’ve played a game of park the bus, which in my mind is a tougher kind of game than Brentford, but 9/10 we come through that hence our league position. Brentford won’t park the bus - they simply can’t afford to. I think that spells trouble for them myself. As stated earlier, we know full well from our game away on the last day of the season at Fulham nearly 20 years ago what happens when a team gets more desperate. Obviously we want to win, but knowing that a draw really doesn’t hurt us, but it would almost certainly hurt them, then they need to ‘have a go’. It could be carnage. 4-1 carnage 😜

Oh my god was that Fulham game nearly 20 years ago , where's the time gone👁️

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I'd just love us to make a comfortable statement win and prove we're the best in the league, which would subsequently make it difficult for them to catch us over the last 11 ? games...

   However , we've fluffed our lines in the last 2 big '6 pointers' against direct promotion rivals in Swansea (a) and Watford (a) ,which is atill fresh in my mind.

I really dont know, I'm not looking as forward to this as I perhaps should be..

 

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18 hours ago, Duncan Edwards said:

I’d take a point now. We saw how easily Swansea swept us aside and Brentford have serious potency in attack. Given how shaky we are at the back I can’t see them scoring less than 3 so we’ll need to stop spurning chances if we’re going to scrape a point from this one. 

Duncan, I know you think being realistic is a virtue (not to mention the creative loss you must be feeling from Lambert leaving...) but you are just giving comfort to the enemy. All the Brentford manager has to do is get that post of yours translated into Japanese and stuck on the wall of the Mito Hollyhock dressing-room and that is his rousing team-talk sorted.

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From the Presser.

I think it says a lot about our ambitions as compared to the lot down the road.

Farke asked about Ipswich, says Paul Cook is "a really good coach" but not really a topic he knows a lot about and would rather face Man City than Ipswich next season, so that he can have a glass of red wine with Guardiola after the game

I'd of added after we've beaten you 3:1 again!

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Latest title odds say. Surprised with their games in hand Swansea are 18/1

  • Norwich
    1/4
    Brentford
    5/1
    Watford
    14/1
    Swansea
    18/1
    Barnsley
    200/1
    Bournemouth
    200/1
    Reading
    250/1
    Cardiff
    1000/1

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Promotion odds. Cardiff 8/1 via playoffs look value

Norwich
1/25
Brentford
2/5
Watford
10/11
Swansea
13/8
Bournemouth
9/2
Barnsley
13/2
Reading
13/2
Cardiff
8/1
Middlesbrough
28/1
Stoke
40/1

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Brentford need this much more than we do. It may work against them, then again their defence often does that in any case..

We have them and Watford to come this season as the two results that really matter. Six pointers and all that. I discount both Bournemouth and Reading now as rivals for an automatic place.

I would settle for a draw in both these vital games as I feel that we can easily pick up the required  points needed from the remaining fixtures, (especially as they have each other to play?) A draw tomorrow would retain that gap with another fixture knocked off.

Reserved negativety, I suppose, but also a forecast.

 

2-2 for me. If there is to be a winner it should be City, but a great pity about Cantwell.

 

Edited by BroadstairsR

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13 minutes ago, Well b back said:

Latest title odds say. Surprised with their games in hand Swansea are 18/1

  • Norwich
    1/4
    Brentford
    5/1
    Watford
    14/1
    Swansea
    18/1
    Barnsley
    200/1
    Bournemouth
    200/1
    Reading
    250/1
    Cardiff
    1000/1

Sounds like we could make a tidy profit to calm fractured nerves if we blew it. Nah.  

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I'm confident Norwich have really got their act together now. With or without Cantwell, I suspect a calm approach and excellent game management from Daniel Farke. He knows this league, we've been here before (Leeds two years ago springs to mind), so expect a masterclass of German efficiency. I'm going 3-1.

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Shame to not have Cantwell, but we've won challenging games with far more injuries than this. 

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26 minutes ago, Norfolk Mustard said:

I'm confident Norwich have really got their act together now. With or without Cantwell, I suspect a calm approach and excellent game management from Daniel Farke. He knows this league, we've been here before (Leeds two years ago springs to mind), so expect a masterclass of German efficiency. I'm going 3-1.

Cantwell blows hot and cold - I'm expecting  Onel to start again - same starting 11 as Sunday.

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I'm a bit twitchy just because I still don;t feel we are playing that well for spells in most games. We weren;t great at watford or swansea when i expected us to show a bit of what we can do. The first half at Brum was decidedly ropey, at Wycombe we should have been out of sight but as usual we werent and they had chances a better side might have taken and even when brushing aside Stoke we let them have several chances that on another day they might have scored. In between those sloppy spells of course we produce 15-25 minute spells of terrific football where at times the opposition can;t get near us but we really can;t afford to be as loose or sloppy tomorrow. Brentford (who seem similar to be honest and definitely leak goals but are less wasteful) will take advantage if we lose possession in our own half or get caught on the ball at the back.

I guess I am just still waiting for us to put together the sort of 90 minute, truly convincing performance I think we are capable of and I can;t decide whether the reason we don't do it is because we can't do it or because the players find things a bit too easy at times and so are tending to get a bit complacent and switch on and off for spells during games. I certainly think that at out best and if fully focussed we are good enough to beat them. This for me is the Leeds (a) moment of this season when i expect us to really assert ourselves. 

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Jim Smith sums this up very well. We have not been that great in recent games. Pukki is only just returning to full pace, Hernandez is a bit rusty and Vrancic continues to stroll around and produce the odd piece of magic. Despite this we still have a lot of individual quality and dominate most games. I do not get too excited about the possession stats as a high proportion relate to when being in our own half and own penalty area !! We do play with a certain amount of arrogance and complacency but I am sure DF will say we achieve the main objective - 3 points. It is noticeable that this slow paced style of football is very prevalent in the Premiership. To be honest can be a bit boring. Overall we are well organised and coached, but I dare I say it the opposition in the Championship is not great this season. Certainly cannot see us losing tomorrow.

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I'd like to see Mumba in the squad if he is fit, staus unknown.  Mumba will be our secret weapon to be thrown on late if needed to be the surprise package.  Cannot see the benefit of having 3 DM's on the bench in place of some attacking prowess.

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On 01/03/2021 at 15:07, Jim Smith said:

I'm not optimistic about this one. We haven;t really done ourselves justice in most of the games against fellow promotion candidates this season and Brentford have the quality/goals in them to punish us for the sort of chances we seem to routinely present to the opposition even when winning games. we will need to take less risks and keep it tighter at the back. However, if we do play to our potential then we definitely have enough about us to beat them. 

TBF, you’re not optimistic about anything Jim. 😉

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I've been around the Brentford area today. Everyone looked bloody miserable, so I think we have them rattled, or it may be because I was there.............

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Feeling oddly optimistic about this, much more so than the Swans game where we had been on a bit of a funny patch and then had to go without Buendia. I fully expect them to come at as hard from the get go and if we weather that storm and keep it 0-0 for the first 20  I expect our comfort and confidence to grow and then we could be in for a real game. Ultimately the pressure is on them and recently I think they have shown they cant cope with it as well as us. 

2-0 City

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6 hours ago, Wardogz said:

Shame to not have Cantwell, but we've won challenging games with far more injuries than this. 

A wonderful opportunity for someone else to step up and hit the winner. Perhaps it will come from an unlikely source.

Giannoulis, left foot hammer from inside the box.

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4 minutes ago, Capt. Pants said:

A wonderful opportunity for someone else to step up and hit the winner. Perhaps it will come from an unlikely source.

Giannoulis, left foot hammer from inside the box.

Good call Captain, I’ve had visions of scoring in this one for a few days now, you can see he’s got a goal in him and I think it’s coming

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21 minutes ago, Capt. Pants said:

A wonderful opportunity for someone else to step up and hit the winner. Perhaps it will come from an unlikely source.

Giannoulis, left foot hammer from inside the box.

I’ll see your unlikely source and go for Xavi with a Mario-like free kick to win the game 1-0 after 87 minutes.

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