Rich T The Biscuit 562 Posted February 25, 2021 I think it's fair to say that the Top 2 will now come from either us, Brentford, Swansea or Watford. Therefore, I've had a quick look at who has who to play, appreciate there are no easy games in the league but there are some really interesting and key fixtures left to play. Norwich - Brentford (H), Bournemouth (H), Watford (H), Reading (H), Barnsley (A) Brentford - Norwich (A), Cardiff (H), Bournemouth (A), Watford (H) Swansea - Bournemouth (A), Cardiff (H), Reading (A), Reading (A) Watford - Bournemouth (A), Cardiff (A), Reading (H), Norwich (A), Brentford (A), Swansea (H). I've only really taken in to consideration those teams in or close to play off but with a couple of good results Stoke and Boro could come in to play, we don't have either to play again, Brentford have Stoke next, Swansea have both to play in the next 3 games and Watford have Boro to play in a few weeks. Because there are so many teams who still have play off chances, it's going to get interesting. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
canarycop 204 Posted February 25, 2021 Bristol City will have a say too. We have played them twice but are sure to improve Pearson in charge 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Rich T The Biscuit 562 Posted February 25, 2021 Brentford and Swansea both have Bristol City, Brentford as there last game and Swansea next. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
sgncfc 1,221 Posted February 25, 2021 I'm hoping that Bristol City will take something at Swansea on Saturday - Swansea have looked shaky at home and are due a defeat there. I doubt Brentford will have any more wobbles - we need to beat them next week. Watford are strong. Belief has been their main problem but they seem to have got through that. That's the other game we need to win. I'm very glad we've built up the 7 point gap to third, and of course if we keep winning no one can catch us anyway. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Rich T The Biscuit 562 Posted February 25, 2021 Swansea also have to squeeze another fixture in with Sheff Wed Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
pete 318 Posted February 25, 2021 Rich T posted Brentford and Swansea both have Bristol City, Brentford as there last game and Swansea next. This post makes no sense, can you be more precise Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
pete 318 Posted February 25, 2021 Cardiff will be the kingmakers, good to have played them before they have turned the corner. 3 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Rich T The Biscuit 562 Posted February 25, 2021 5 minutes ago, pete said: Rich T posted Brentford and Swansea both have Bristol City, Brentford as there last game and Swansea next. This post makes no sense, can you be more precise Oh dear.....just kidding. What I meant is that Brentford and Swansea both still has Bristol City to play, we don't and neither do Watford. Change in manager and still have the sights on play off means that they could be crucial/key games. Brentford play Bristol City as their last fixture for the season, Swansea have Bristol City as their next game. Make sense? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
lincsy88 95 Posted February 25, 2021 I for one hope its all dusted and sealed before Oakwell on the final day of the season, Barnsley will sneak into the playoffs for me and I wouldn't wanna bank on us having to win there final day of the season to get promoted. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Petriix 2,834 Posted February 25, 2021 I've done a fair bit of analysis. Without going into the boring details of my algorithm, I project we will finish on 94 pts. That will be enough to win the league by about 6 pts. We've already played our hardest fixtures and other have not. We only need 8 more wins to be fairly certain of the championship, and definitely automatic promotion. The ultimate outcome is more dependent on our performances against the bottom-half teams. We don't actually need to beat any of our immediate rivals, although avoiding defeat would be ideal. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Downloads 35 Posted February 25, 2021 I'm an analyst in my day job, the algorithm might be exciting... 😅 1 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Norfolk Dan 308 Posted February 25, 2021 Love an algorithm me. ... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
GenerationA47 747 Posted February 25, 2021 Folks be getting all algorithmic with it Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
TheGunnShow 5,930 Posted February 25, 2021 I just pull out when I hear "algorithmic method". 1 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Crabbycanary3 994 Posted February 25, 2021 On current away form (including goals scored) it would seem that Watford have a huge task to stay in contention. They need to hit the purplest (?) of purple patches to achieve a top 2 finish. Can't see it at all. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
sonyc 5,489 Posted February 25, 2021 5 hours ago, Petriix said: I've done a fair bit of analysis. Without going into the boring details of my algorithm, I project we will finish on 94 pts. That will be enough to win the league by about 6 pts. We've already played our hardest fixtures and other have not. We only need 8 more wins to be fairly certain of the championship, and definitely automatic promotion. The ultimate outcome is more dependent on our performances against the bottom-half teams. We don't actually need to beat any of our immediate rivals, although avoiding defeat would be ideal. That look suspiciously like the Cummings/Gavin Williamson algorithm. But I like your one better 🙂 I had 95 points on my forecast (7 wins, 7 draws...and I hadn't been able to see a defeat). Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Van wink 2,994 Posted February 25, 2021 2 minutes ago, sonyc said: That look suspiciously like the Cummings/Gavin Williamson algorithm. But I like your one better 🙂 I had 95 points on my forecast (7 wins, 7 draws...and I hadn't been able to see a defeat). All looking good for a seat watching EPL games at CR next season, can’t wait 😁 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Christoph Stiepermann 1,131 Posted February 25, 2021 (edited) 6 wins and 3 draws from the next 14 games will do it giving is 88 points. It would take a hell of downturn for us to lose it from here. 6 wins and 3 draws over 14 games would be our worst run of form throughout the season. For me the Watford and Brentford games are do not lose as opposed to must win Edited February 25, 2021 by Christoph Stiepermann 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Icecream Snow 761 Posted February 25, 2021 We're 67 points from 32 games, and our corresponding position two years ago was 60 points from 32 games, so we're 7 points ahead of where we were before. Though after that we went on a run of 8 straight wins and finished with 10 wins and 4 draws from our final 14 games. 8 of our next 9 games are against the lower half of the table. But it's Norwich so I'm sure there will more twists and turns and edge of the seat nail-biting stuff. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
First Wazzock 902 Posted February 25, 2021 I think the top 4 are set, we just need to decide the final positions. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Surfer 1,547 Posted February 26, 2021 17 hours ago, Rich T The Biscuit said: Watford - Bournemouth (A), Cardiff (A), Reading (H), Norwich (A), Brentford (A), Swansea (H). That's good news. Whatever happens they will be highly motivated to beat Brentford and Swansea, Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Justin time 182 Posted February 26, 2021 20 hours ago, Rich T The Biscuit said: I think it's fair to say that the Top 2 will now come from either us, Brentford, Swansea or Watford. Therefore, I've had a quick look at who has who to play, appreciate there are no easy games in the league but there are some really interesting and key fixtures left to play. Norwich - Brentford (H), Bournemouth (H), Watford (H), Reading (H), Barnsley (A) Brentford - Norwich (A), Cardiff (H), Bournemouth (A), Watford (H) Swansea - Bournemouth (A), Cardiff (H), Reading (A), Reading (A) Watford - Bournemouth (A), Cardiff (A), Reading (H), Norwich (A), Brentford (A), Swansea (H). I've only really taken in to consideration those teams in or close to play off but with a couple of good results Stoke and Boro could come in to play, we don't have either to play again, Brentford have Stoke next, Swansea have both to play in the next 3 games and Watford have Boro to play in a few weeks. Because there are so many teams who still have play off chances, it's going to get interesting. I think it’s fair to say that Swansea won’t appreciate playing Reading Away twice. 🧐 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Justin time 182 Posted February 26, 2021 16 hours ago, Norfolk Dan said: Love an algorithm me. ... Of all the Vice Presidents I cant say he had exceptional rhythm. 🕺🏼 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Weneverscorefromacorner 5 Posted February 26, 2021 A couple of years ago it was us along with Leeds and Sheffield United. I was so confident we would win the league then. I'm even more confident this time around. Pressures on Brentford, Swansea and Watford imho. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Rich T The Biscuit 562 Posted February 26, 2021 1 hour ago, Justin time said: I think it’s fair to say that Swansea won’t appreciate playing Reading Away twice. 🧐 Oh yeah, that should have said Watford (A) 🤦 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Nuff Said 5,088 Posted February 26, 2021 There's a common assumption that the games we are more likely to win are those against teams towards the lower end of the table. I'm not sure I completely agree with this. I know our only recent (league) loss has been to Swansealona, but it's the scrappy, park the bus teams who are *desperate* to avoid relegation who can prove difficult to beat, and have done for us in the past. It was even true last season. We could beat Man City and draw with Leicester, but got clearly beaten by Villa twice. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Hank shoots Skyler 2,094 Posted February 26, 2021 17 hours ago, TheGunnShow said: I just pull out when I hear "algorithmic method". Wow you must REALLY like algorithms TGS? 2 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Moosebadge 28 Posted February 26, 2021 (edited) 18 hours ago, Crabbycanary3 said: On current away form (including goals scored) it would seem that Watford have a huge task to stay in contention. They need to hit the purplest (?) of purple patches to achieve a top 2 finish. Can't see it at all. As a watford fan we have hit form. Since new boss came in we have not conceded first in 12 consecutive games. And we are now unbeaten away in our last 5 away games. Winning 3 and drawing 2. Its 2015 all over again, we didnt enter an automatic place until 3 games to go. We are 4 points ahead of that season and recently look like a proper team. We finished on 89 points in 2015. Edited February 26, 2021 by Moosebadge Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Rich T The Biscuit 562 Posted February 26, 2021 32 minutes ago, Moosebadge said: As a watford fan we have hit form. Since new boss came in we have not conceded first in 12 consecutive games. And we are now unbeaten away in our last 5 away games. Winning 3 and drawing 2. Its 2015 all over again, we didnt enter an automatic place until 3 games to go. We are 4 points ahead of that season and recently look like a proper team. We finished on 89 points in 2015. My school of thought is that of the 3 chasing us it's Watford that worry me the most. You have all 3 of the others in the Top 4 to play so can make a huge difference to who does finish in the Top 2. Having said that if you lose all 3 then it's play offs for you so just demonstrates how tight it will be. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Moosebadge 28 Posted February 26, 2021 (edited) We beat you, drew with Brentford and lost to Swansea previously. I think we may lose tomorrow. I am not to bothered if we do, the aim has to be to win 10 of last 14, we won 8 and drew 3 of our last 14 games so short of this by 3 points. But have seen a massive improvement in last 4 games. I see it as a shoot out between us and Brentford for 2nd. I dont think you will wobble although we pulled back the same amount of points on Bournemouth in 2015. Although still finished 2nd. Edited February 26, 2021 by Moosebadge Share this post Link to post Share on other sites