The run in

[Petriix 2,834]

Sometimes the fixtures can be a little anomalous with blocks of tougher or easier games. Sometimes games that are apparently easy become more challenging than expected. This season has thrown us a strange situation indeed.

According to soccerstats, our remaining opponents have mustered just 1.20 points per game (on average) which is lower than the for anyone else's remaining fixtures. This contrasts with the 1.41 points per game average of the teams we've already faced. https://www.soccerstats.com/table.asp?league=england2&tid=10

But that's only part of the picture. The only group of fixtures in which we are averaging less than 2 points per game is away against top 8 opponents. We've already played all of these. In fact our remaining away fixtures only include one top-half team (Barnsley).

We do still have to play 4 of the top 6 at home, but those teams have a pretty tough fixture away at top-of-the-table Norwich. The only other top-half team we still have to play is Blackburn (12th) with 9 of our remaining fixtures being against bottom-half sides.

Now, I'm not saying we'll win them all but, if we drop a few points against the lower teams, all we need to do is pick up the same amount against the top teams. 9 wins takes us to 91 points. That will be enough.

If we continue our current average points per game based on the league position of our opponents, we'll finish on 99 points. Adjusted for our recent (slightly worse) form, that drops to 94 points.

Nothing is a given but it would take a significant departure from our season so far for us to falter. That's why Project 538 have us at an 87% chance of winning promotion. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/championship/

[horsefly 4,276]

Cheers! very interesting and encouraging stats. Worth factoring into that is the Farke factor too. He's been there and done it (just two seasons ago), and is by far the most experienced manager among the contenders. His assured and calm management style, even through the minor blip, is exactly what is required to deal with the pressure of the run-in. Can't think of another manager I would swap him for.

[WD40 720]

Very nice - we’re on the countdown now, crossing off the wins required as we go through.

Only shame is fans allowed into stadiums the week after our (promotion) season ends 😉

[Branston Pickle 3,632]

I’ve long thought that our actual run-in of the last 5 games does look a bit tricky - Bmuff, Watford, QPR, Reading and Barnsley - but when you’re on a roll you just think ‘bring it on’.

[sonyc 5,489]

I read somewhere on Twitter @WD40 that there is a call for the season to be extended / rolled over  by one week  (i.e. the last game) so that EFL fans can get to the match to see their team (even if a reduced attendance). That would be a good idea if the data indicates it might be safe to do so.

[WD40 720]

6 minutes ago, sonyc said:

I read somewhere on Twitter @WD40 that there is a call for the season to be extended / rolled over  by one week  (i.e. the last game) so that EFL fans can get to the match to see their team (even if a reduced attendance). That would be a good idea if the data indicates it might be safe to do so.

I hope this does happen, though I’ll be jealous of the lucky 10,000. Let’s not forget it would mean a lot to the players and coaching staff as well to see the appreciation from the fans. 

[cambridgeshire canary 6,675]

14 minutes ago, WD40 said:

I hope this does happen, though I’ll be jealous of the lucky 10,000. Let’s not forget it would mean a lot to the players and coaching staff as well to see the appreciation from the fans. 

Same here- If we win promotion I hope at some some of our fans can attend.

 

Don't like the idea of the players getting to lift a trophy in an empty stadium

[dylanisabaddog 4,864]

1 hour ago, Branston Pickle said:

I’ve long thought that our actual run-in of the last 5 games does look a bit tricky - Bmuff, Watford, QPR, Reading and Barnsley - but when you’re on a roll you just think ‘bring it on’.

We'll be up by then😊

[PurpleCanary 5,554]

Yesterday I crunched the numbers for the team finishing second over the last 20 seasons (so the points they got rather than the potentially lower number they might have needed).

That gave an average of 87.15. But that included a couple of real outlier seasons where clubs finished second on 79 and 75 points. Excluding them, the average rose to 88.2.

Rounding that up to 89, we need eight wins and a draw from the last 15, or seven wins and four draws. Even if 90 points or more are required, in effect we need only to win eight more times and draw a few.

[Capt. Pants 4,195]

2 hours ago, cambridgeshire canary said:

Same here- If we win promotion I hope at some some of our fans can attend.

 

Don't like the idea of the players getting to lift a trophy in an empty stadium

We are away last game of the season so I very much hope the season isn't extended. The season would need to be extended 2 weeks at least for us to see them and no guarantee anything will have been decided before the final home game.

In any event I can only see the early return to schools increasing infections again, and delaying the timetable. 

[Crafty Canary 495]

Provided we don’t drop silly points to lower half clubs we will be in a position where we can accept draws against the remaining top 6 teams. A draw gains them no advantage over us and uses up one of their remaining games.