Farke's use of subs (in games we are winning narrowly)

[hogesar 9,618]

1 hour ago, nutty nigel said:

Daniel was asked specifically about his use of and timing of subs. As always he gave an honest answer. (I love that about him). He talks about the players being able to deliver over a demanding game schedule. He says he makes subs when it makes sense to do so. He felt we controlled the game. He then went on to explain the subs he did make. My paraphrasing is rubbish but it's all on this video.

But we don't have to leave it there. Is Farke right?

Well, if you look at this chart and the goals for and against in the last 15 mins + added we have scored 12 and conceded 4. That suggests to me his game management and ability to see out a result is extremely good.

Interestingly Beloved Brentford, who some of Farke's critics were crowning as champions just 10 days ago, concede twice as many in those same last minutes.

But is it all luck? I can't take that option off the table and it's been used before....

That last 15 minutes thing is really interesting and suggests we are generally in a good position heading into the final stages in terms of team setup.

[wcorkcanary 4,329]

9 hours ago, hogesar said:

That last 15 minutes thing is really interesting and suggests we are generally in a good position heading into the final stages in terms of team setup.

Kinda suggests that he knows what he's  doing. 

[sonyc 5,492]

On 21/02/2021 at 20:55, Parma Ham's gone mouldy said:

Subs are generally used pretty sparingly in Italy, 1-0 is not a ‘nervous’ score line, winning positions are typically not messed with. It’s unnecessary chess. 

Thanks Parma! Your (two) posts have helped me look at our game plan in a new way. And actually its a kind of pleasure  to discover a new way of looking at things. Like the OP, I was certainly one of the (probable) sizeable cohort of fans screaming at the  ifollow stream wanting Farke to make those subs.

Whilst I have often wondered about his subs over many games I have always forgiven Farke - for he is one of my all time favourite managers. It will help ahead to think of the 1-0 scoreline in a different way and Norwich being like a superbly schooled Italian team.

There is a wider point I wanted to mention too because I think the point you've made  is about appreciating things. Appreciation is an odd term but one I believe is one of the most powerful things we can all do.

Perhaps I'm thinking too much because I've been mulling this over most of the night (sad I realise but that is lockdown). And I've been thinking of Voltaire and a great quote that has struck such a chord with me for the last 20 years"....In appreciation, we make the excellence of others our own property".  What has this got to do with football I can almost hear you ask! Yet it does and your points support just that. I think this thread just shows how much every Norwich City fan cares and how much we want us to be a beautiful team. Football is so much about being entertained. You can watch a film and enjoy the action but then that is doubled when you also really listen to the score, to the colours used (I never knew film directors often consider whole colour schemes for every scene...occasionally for the whole film). Thinking about these things trebles enjoyment and...you've guessed it, appreciation. Then, it all becomes your happiness. Quite selfish really!

Anyway at risk of being called out as an idiot (and I don't really mind because it I wanted to share a thought) I think there are more ways of looking at a match. I knew that of course already but your thoughtful post has just reminded me to be more much more conscious. Cheers 👍

[Hank shoots Skyler 2,094]

15 hours ago, nutty nigel said:

But we don't have to leave it there. Is Farke right?

Well, if you look at this chart and the goals for and against in the last 15 mins + added we have scored 12 and conceded 4. That suggests to me his game management and ability to see out a result is extremely good.

Interestingly Beloved Brentford, who some of Farke's critics were crowning as champions just 10 days ago, concede twice as many in those same last minutes.

But is it all luck? I can't take that option off the table and it's been used before....

Thanks for sharing that Nutty - an interesting table, but I think you might be conflating the issues a little bit. 

Firstly, I specifically singled out Farke for praise in my OP for his use of substitutions in situations where we are chasing the game. I never described it as 'luck', and I don't think any other poster who has contributed here has described Farke as lucky in these spots either - that would just be unfair. 

Secondly, I respect our overall record in the closing period of matches is really good, but this will largely be due to those situations where we have needed to score. Particularly early in the season where late goals against Huddersfield, Wycombe, Sheff Weds, Birmingham, Rotherham, Preston, Brentford, Swansea (off the top of my head), saw us either steal a draw or bag the 3 points late on. 

Although I did already feel that overall our game management has been good, my OP was specifically in regard to the games where we took an early lead, couldn't put it to bed but then lost momentum towards the end. I thought a more willing use of like-for-like subs may help to mitigate this, but as Parma explained it is a deliberate action to stifle the opposition - so such a change would not affect the overall flow.

That said, the point that remains a tad unclear for me is the use of subs for rotation and the match sharpness of our bench players, and I would maintain my belief that a more willing use of the bench in winning spots COULD have seen players like Hernandez, Dowell, Idah, Mumba and even Rupp come in to better form (yes I know they've also been injured).

I respect why Farke hasn't done this, and no criticisms from me as we are clearly still doing the business! However, I'm not sure I would feel confident about any of these guys coming in and making an immediate impact if we happen to be chasing a game in the coming round of fixtures. 

 

 

[BigFish 1,986]

2 hours ago, Hank shoots Skyler said:

 However, I'm not sure I would feel confident about any of these guys coming in and making an immediate impact if we happen to be chasing a game in the coming round of fixtures.

Now, I am sure this is a sentiment that has broad consensus, and is probably one factor in why Farke doesn't throw them on when we are leading by a single goal. Farke picks his best 11, rotation weakens this and I wouldn't be confident we would have as many points now if we deliberately fielded understrength sides in order to keep legs "fresh".

Edited February 23, 2021 by BigFish

[Hank shoots Skyler 2,094]

43 minutes ago, BigFish said:

Now, I am sure this is a sentiment that has broad consensus, and is probably one factor in why Farke doesn't through them on when we are leading by a single goal. Farke picks his best 11, rotation weakens this and I wouldn't be confident we would have as many points now if we deliberately fielded understrength sides in order to keep legs "fresh".

Yep that's the other side of it. I guess it is the balance between management on a game-by-game basis versus the management of the squad overall - and at the minute Farke is prioritising the former. Which of course is fine as performances and results are going rather well! 

[nutty nigel 7,513]

2 hours ago, Hank shoots Skyler said:

Thanks for sharing that Nutty - an interesting table, but I think you might be conflating the issues a little bit. 

Firstly, I specifically singled out Farke for praise in my OP for his use of substitutions in situations where we are chasing the game. I never described it as 'luck', and I don't think any other poster who has contributed here has described Farke as lucky in these spots either - that would just be unfair. 

Secondly, I respect our overall record in the closing period of matches is really good, but this will largely be due to those situations where we have needed to score. Particularly early in the season where late goals against Huddersfield, Wycombe, Sheff Weds, Birmingham, Rotherham, Preston, Brentford, Swansea (off the top of my head), saw us either steal a draw or bag the 3 points late on. 

Although I did already feel that overall our game management has been good, my OP was specifically in regard to the games where we took an early lead, couldn't put it to bed but then lost momentum towards the end. I thought a more willing use of like-for-like subs may help to mitigate this, but as Parma explained it is a deliberate action to stifle the opposition - so such a change would not affect the overall flow.

That said, the point that remains a tad unclear for me is the use of subs for rotation and the match sharpness of our bench players, and I would maintain my belief that a more willing use of the bench in winning spots COULD have seen players like Hernandez, Dowell, Idah, Mumba and even Rupp come in to better form (yes I know they've also been injured).

I respect why Farke hasn't done this, and no criticisms from me as we are clearly still doing the business! However, I'm not sure I would feel confident about any of these guys coming in and making an immediate impact if we happen to be chasing a game in the coming round of fixtures. 

 

 

Sorry Hank, I didn't mean you said Farke got lucky. As far as this thread goes I'm sure I remember a few posts, from others, suggesting 'he got away with it'. But the forums issues make it too difficult to look back.

My comment at the end was a reference to the posters who put 2018/19 down to luck and all the stars aligning. 

I think he answers the points about subs honestly in his interview. I don't know why he's not asked more about such things. In the past he's appeared genuinely surprised when asked about tactical stuff but always answers respectfully and honestly. A couple weeks ago it was about not allowing the horizontal pass. I can now see that by the way the players pass and move to beat the press.

With regards to players returning from injury and making an impact again I would say judge him on his record. McLean and Krul seemed to make an immediate impact on their return from injury.

 

 

 

Edited February 23, 2021 by nutty nigel

[Hank shoots Skyler 2,094]

34 minutes ago, nutty nigel said:

With regards to players returning from injury and making an impact again I would say judge him on his record. McLean and Krul seemed to make an immediate impact on their return from injury.

This is true, but I suppose Farke sees those two as first team regulars, so required to be brought back ASAP and indeed McLean did still struggle versus Swansea, despite only being out of the team a couple of matches. Whereas players like Hernandez, Idah, Dowell, Mumba etc clearly aren't thought of quite as highly. 

So whilst it is unfortunate that their injuries initially pushed them out of the picture, Farke probably now doesn't deem it necessary to risk them struggling for a game or two - especially when performances / results are going well - as they are only likely to feature from the bench anyway or in the event of an injury.

But IMO this approach does become risky if we do now have an injury or find ourselves in a bad spot mid-game, as I don't think Hernandez and co are ready to be brought back in and change the game. 

[nutty nigel 7,513]

1 hour ago, Hank shoots Skyler said:

This is true, but I suppose Farke sees those two as first team regulars, so required to be brought back ASAP and indeed McLean did still struggle versus Swansea, despite only being out of the team a couple of matches. Whereas players like Hernandez, Idah, Dowell, Mumba etc clearly aren't thought of quite as highly. 

So whilst it is unfortunate that their injuries initially pushed them out of the picture, Farke probably now doesn't deem it necessary to risk them struggling for a game or two - especially when performances / results are going well - as they are only likely to feature from the bench anyway or in the event of an injury.

But IMO this approach does become risky if we do now have an injury or find ourselves in a bad spot mid-game, as I don't think Hernandez and co are ready to be brought back in and change the game. 

Neither do I to be fair. But do you sacrifice the last 15 mins in a game you're winning by a single goal just in case? 

When we had the game sewn up v Stoke those players came on.

[horsefly 4,287]

Sublime substitutions by Farke tonight. Brings on Hugill and Sorensen to counter the height of Brummie subs, Hugill wins a header in our box, out to Rupp (another sub) who powers forward to set up Skipp. Job Done!

[Ian 1,129]

3 minutes ago, horsefly said:

Sublime substitutions by Farke tonight. Brings on Hugill and Sorensen to counter the height of Brummie subs, Hugill wins a header in our box, out to Rupp (another sub) who powers forward to set up Skipp. Job Done!

Those 4 subs in the last 10/15 really killed the game off didn't it?

Not sure Onel was too chuffed though...

[Hank shoots Skyler 2,094]

3 hours ago, nutty nigel said:

Neither do I to be fair. But do you sacrifice the last 15 mins in a game you're winning by a single goal just in case? 

When we had the game sewn up v Stoke those players came on.

As mentioned I do think its fairly normal for managers to do this, even when only a goal up. 

Watching the Chelsea game at the mo, they've just gone a goal up and immediately made two changes!

[Hank shoots Skyler 2,094]

5 minutes ago, horsefly said:

Sublime substitutions by Farke tonight. Brings on Hugill and Sorensen to counter the height of Brummie subs, Hugill wins a header in our box, out to Rupp (another sub) who powers forward to set up Skipp. Job Done!

4D chess from Farke!

[horsefly 4,287]

Just now, Ian said:

Those 4 subs in the last 10/15 really killed the game off didn't it?

Not sure Onel was too chuffed though...

Haha! I'm sure he'll tell Onel it was just a height thing. Perhaps he'll tuck a few Argos tokens in his top pocket.

[Parma Ham's gone mouldy 2,219]

Today was a very different 1-0. Nothing like the level of strategic control as vs Rotherham.

So he changed it...

Parma 

[Parma Ham's gone mouldy 2,219]

10 hours ago, sonyc said:

Thanks Parma! Your (two) posts have helped me look at our game plan in a new way. And actually its a kind of pleasure  to discover a new way of looking at things. Like the OP, I was certainly one of the (probable) sizeable cohort of fans screaming at the  ifollow stream wanting Farke to make those subs.

Whilst I have often wondered about his subs over many games I have always forgiven Farke - for he is one of my all time favourite managers. It will help ahead to think of the 1-0 scoreline in a different way and Norwich being like a superbly schooled Italian team.

There is a wider point I wanted to mention too because I think the point you've made  is about appreciating things. Appreciation is an odd term but one I believe is one of the most powerful things we can all do.

Perhaps I'm thinking too much because I've been mulling this over most of the night (sad I realise but that is lockdown). And I've been thinking of Voltaire and a great quote that has struck such a chord with me for the last 20 years"....In appreciation, we make the excellence of others our own property".  What has this got to do with football I can almost hear you ask! Yet it does and your points support just that. I think this thread just shows how much every Norwich City fan cares and how much we want us to be a beautiful team. Football is so much about being entertained. You can watch a film and enjoy the action but then that is doubled when you also really listen to the score, to the colours used (I never knew film directors often consider whole colour schemes for every scene...occasionally for the whole film). Thinking about these things trebles enjoyment and...you've guessed it, appreciation. Then, it all becomes your happiness. Quite selfish really!

Anyway at risk of being called out as an idiot (and I don't really mind because it I wanted to share a thought) I think there are more ways of looking at a match. I knew that of course already but your thoughtful post has just reminded me to be more much more conscious. Cheers 👍

Good for you @sonyc...a very mindful response ✨

Parma 

[Clint 221]

I thought Onel make a big difference when he came on and was exactly what we needed. Credit to Farke for that one. 

[horsefly 4,287]

2 minutes ago, Clint said:

I thought Onel make a big difference when he came on and was exactly what we needed. Credit to Farke for that one. 

Yep! he looks in great shape and ready to cause mayhem. I would be tempted to give him a start and move Todd to the middle in place of Vrancic. But Farke knows exactly what he's doing.

[hogesar 9,618]

Other than Hernandez the rest of the subs were late and not only did we still win the game, we scored another goal.

Again, maybe Farke REALLY does know what he's doing!

[nutty nigel 7,513]

17 minutes ago, Hank shoots Skyler said:

As mentioned I do think its fairly normal for managers to do this, even when only a goal up. 

Watching the Chelsea game at the mo, they've just gone a goal up and immediately made two changes!

You got me waayyyyy out of my comfort zone with what's going on in the champions league. Is what's going on there comparable to city against Rotherham? Well I guess football is football...

 

[Hank shoots Skyler 2,094]

3 minutes ago, nutty nigel said:

You got me waayyyyy out of my comfort zone with what's going on in the champions league. Is what's going on there comparable to city against Rotherham? Well I guess football is football...

Well I did also list every game on Saturday in the PL and the championship, with all narrowly winning teams in our league making 2 or more subs on 60 - 75 minutes (whereas Farke prefers to start making multiple subs on around 85 minutes when narrowly winning). So yes I do think it may have been possible to have incorporated a few more from the bench without necessarily 'sacrificing' points.

But who cares while we continue to win games! 

And as others have said, Hernandez came in and did pretty well tonight, which does answer my concern that our subs may not be able to come in and make a difference. That said, the second half performance overall was much better from the get go - Farke must've given them a good bollucking.

Hopefully tonight will now mean Hernandez has now got his foot back in the door and can be relied upon a little more - we could probably do with a freshen up for the next game based on the overall performance, would welcome a start for him!

[nutty nigel 7,513]

20 minutes ago, Hank shoots Skyler said:

Well I did also list every game on Saturday in the PL and the championship, with all narrowly winning teams in our league making 2 or more subs on 60 - 75 minutes (whereas Farke prefers to start making multiple subs on around 85 minutes when narrowly winning). So yes I do think it may have been possible to have incorporated a few more from the bench without necessarily 'sacrificing' points.

But who cares while we continue to win games! 

And as others have said, Hernandez came in and did pretty well tonight, which does answer my concern that our subs may not be able to come in and make a difference. That said, the second half performance overall was much better from the get go - Farke must've given them a good bollucking.

Hopefully tonight will now mean Hernandez has now got his foot back in the door and can be relied upon a little more - we could probably do with a freshen up for the next game based on the overall performance, would welcome a start for him!

Hank, I don't argue that you think the subs should have been made. It's a fair point well made and it's a good thread. But I think Farke's been pretty much spot on with his subs this season. I think his game management and season management (if there is such a thing) has been superb. There's still 14 games left for it to go wrong but I'm confident.

I'm the same as most and sometimes get frustrated watching games. I'm old and always believed at 1-0 the priority should to get a second. I still get uncomfortable when we build patiently from the back. Farke's first season it got to the point where I had to relearn how to watch football to stop the frustration. I get it far more now and see how games unfold and how things we do earlier in the game can bear fruit much later on. I love it now but still get frustrated and sit on my hands occasionally.

Not about you Hank but some will be never not be frustrated by this. Which I assume is why there's such subdued celebration as we break winning records.

 

 

Edited February 23, 2021 by nutty nigel

[Parma Ham's gone mouldy 2,219]

The reasons listed above are predominantly the same reasons why Cantwell has replaced Hernandez in the starting line up today.

Many might say that Farke never changes a winning line-up or if-you-have-the-shirt-you-keep-it. That’s another canard gone. It was only when it was the best odds, it was not a rule in itself. 

Parma 

[Hank shoots Skyler 2,094]

On 22/02/2021 at 14:31, Hank shoots Skyler said:

....

So I think instead we are a bit more adventurous than you have given us credit for. Generally I would say our go-to approach at the moment is:

1) Roughly for the first 45 minutes, we look to get out of sight (or at least a two-goal cushion) with high pressing, high tempo passing, and overloading midfielders and fullbacks. 

2) For the second 45, we are comfortable dictating the tempo with slower, more straight forward possession football, with less positional risk taking in terms of both attacking and pressing - whether we manage to get to that two-goal margin or not in the opening phases. This could also explain our perceived sluggish period in matches from around 45 - 65 minutes where plenty of people have noted a drop off after half time.

Carbon copy of this tonight I thought! Incredible stuff first 45, and a coast to the finish for the second 45.

Me being a selfish fan though I would’ve really liked to have seen us really stick it to them - we looked fully capable of a real landmark scoreline.

Dare I say that it’s a bit of a shame because our performances have been so exceptionally good this season - the most effective football I’ve ever seen us play - but we haven’t quite managed to bookmark them with the front-page grabbing scorelines that we have warranted, and without those scores will they get the attention they deserve looking back in the future years to come?

I’m sure this season will just be looked back on as ‘remember that season in the champs where we just picked everyone off and coasted to the title’.

It’s almost like we are too good!

This year’s performances and league position have barely been a contest when comparing to 18/19 (so far), and as a result this season will probably go down as the less memorable season. It’s a bit unfair because this team deserves far more recognition! Though I’m sure the lack of fan attendance has also hindered the emotional aspect - of course. 

I just hope we can now continue this in the prem - I really feel like we could find ourselves staying up next season if we can keep our core together and strengthen well.

[Petriix 2,834]

6 minutes ago, Hank shoots Skyler said:

Carbon copy of this tonight I thought! Incredible stuff first 45, and a coast to the finish for the second 45.

Me being a selfish fan though I would’ve really liked to have seen us really stick it to them - we looked fully capable of a real landmark scoreline.

Dare I say that it’s a bit of a shame because our performances have been so exceptionally good this season - the most effective football I’ve ever seen us play - but we haven’t quite managed to bookmark them with the front-page grabbing scorelines that we have warranted, and without those scores will they get the attention they deserve looking back in the future years to come?

I’m sure this season will just be looked back on as ‘remember that season in the champs where we just picked everyone off and coasted to the title’.

It’s almost like we are too good!

This year’s performances and league position have barely been a contest when comparing to 18/19 (so far), and as a result this season will probably go down as the less memorable season. It’s a bit unfair because this team deserves far more recognition! Though I’m sure the lack of fan attendance has also hindered the emotional aspect - of course. 

I just hope we can now continue this in the prem - I really feel like we could find ourselves staying up next season if we can keep our core together and strengthen well.

It's a whole new level of maturity. We've got another game at the weekend and we were in total control. Where a bunch of egos would want the headlines, our team remain focused on efficiently getting the job done.

Contrast our season with Brentford's. They've banged in the goals, really putting teams to the sword at times, but they're vulnerable as a result. They were 2-0 up last night and keept attacking and ended up drawing 2-2.

We've developed a much more pragmatic approach. We're hard to score against and our game-management is on another level, more befitting a Premier League team. We'd rather win every game 1-0 than try to run up a rugby score.

Sure, it's less dramatic. Maybe more interesting for football connisoires than your average fan. But I think it's fantastic. The players are well drilled and are putting an excellent plan into practice with diligence and discipline that I've not seen from a Norwich team before.