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Mullet

1/2 the season to go . I have the secret to our success

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I have analysed our results so far this season and conclude:

If we have on average 5 or more shots on target in a game we almost always win.

So this is something to watch out for as from tomorrow 

 

 

 

Edited by Mullet

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7 minutes ago, Mullet said:

Are we rightfully a top two team? Yes, easily

Despite our league position why are our shots on target per game stats so poor? What's shots on target git to do with league position?

Will we likely get automatic promotion even if there are better teams than us (will our experience help see this out)? Yes

I wonder why we haven't battered anyone like Brentford are capable of doing? Brentford don't like the business end of the season, we do. We are playing the long game.

If we do get promoted will we retain Buendia and Aarons? Yes, no-one will pay our asking price

Are we equipped to hold our own in the premier league this time? Not yet

 

 

 

Here ya go.

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Yes

Not sure

Possibly

Because there has been much emphasis on being tighter at the back after two leaky seasons and achieving that balance can often mean being less potent initially.....I wouldn’t put it past us to get more prolific between now and May

Impossible to say but I’d like to think we can keep one of them at least, however if top clubs want them which is quite possible we’ll be powerless to stop it happening 

Not at the moment, it will require three or four better players to improve the starting line up but I think this squad is better equipped than the one which won the league two seasons ago

 

 

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When we play Swansea next Saturday we will have played every team currently in the top 10 at their place. Both Swansea and Brentford have 5 such matches to contend with.

We are where we are because of our consistency. We keep finding ways to pick up points. We'll be fine.

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We've got more points at this stage of any other season in our history.....but

Its a low quality league, there are 5 or 6 clubs in it which are clearly a level above everything else , which is by and large dross.

What that means is that the top 6 are unlikely to drop too many points against anyone other than each other, the need fir points will be relentless for the remaindee if the season, with not such a big a margin for error than perhaps with previous seasons as there will be 4 other clubs who will not let up

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Well two seasons ago we were top despite our defensive frailties. We drew 3-3 with Forest from 3-0 down. We lost 3-4 v derby. We beat Millwall 4-3 after being behind twice. Others I remember are Bolton 3-2, WBA 3-4, Hull 3-2... 

We very often got a result thanks to at least one goal in added time. The consensus was our luck would run out. 

So I guess what I'm saying is whatever the results they could be viewed negatively or positively. And it's usually negatively after a defeat. But we drew yesterday...

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I think people are getting a little edgy because of a poor cup performance from a lot of our non starters against a very game Barnsley and then actually a quite credible point against a play off contender with only 10 men. Brentford hammer the bottom side (whilst conceding two) and Swansea also be a bottom 5 side and all of a sudden everyone is getting a little panicked.

 

For all of the big goal margins, to go up you only need to score 1 more than the other side and because we have become a lot more solid at the back, winning games 4-3 or 3-2 isn't as a essential. I think we have a really talented squad with depth who are where they deserve to be, we win on tuesday and everyone will have their mojo back! 

 

 

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2 minutes ago, birchfest said:

I think people are getting a little edgy because of a poor cup performance from a lot of our non starters against a very game Barnsley and then actually a quite credible point against a play off contender with only 10 men. Brentford hammer the bottom side (whilst conceding two) and Swansea also be a bottom 5 side and all of a sudden everyone is getting a little panicked.

 

For all of the big goal margins, to go up you only need to score 1 more than the other side and because we have become a lot more solid at the back, winning games 4-3 or 3-2 isn't as a essential. I think we have a really talented squad with depth who are where they deserve to be, we win on tuesday and everyone will have their mojo back! 

 

 

Yes I guess you're right, I would take a 1-0 win all day long but we seem lack lustre. I can't remember a game where we played great

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Do I think we are a top 2 side? Yes

Do I think we have played to our full potential so far? No

Do I think we can get better? Yes

 

Realistically theres 4 sides who could make top 2.

Us, Swansea, Brentford and Watford.

Reading seem to go through too many dips, Bournemouth have fallen off of it lately and probably need an awfull lot to fall in their favour regarding theres and everyone elses form.

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I think we deserve to be where we are and I also understand that we have (bar a couple of games) yet to play especially well or get out of 2nd gear etc.

But, 26 games into the season, I do wonder when we are actually going to get out of 2nd gear? 

Edited by Clint

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Yes, we're the best side but in the weakest Championship I've ever known.

Our squad depth, quality and experience (on and off the pitch) should see us finish in the top two but every point has to be earned.

One mega plus is that I think we're still well shy of what we're capable of ... plenty more to see from Placheta, Dowell, Giannoulis and Idah in the months to come I think.

Sit back and enjoy the ride!

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Maybe not getting out of second gear is the effect of the lack of crowds pushing the players on. Apparently Watford haven’t played as well as they can either.

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17 minutes ago, Mr Angry said:

Maybe not getting out of second gear is the effect of the lack of crowds pushing the players on. Apparently Watford haven’t played as well as they can either.

To an extent I believe this is spot on. If we can stay where we are by the end of March and we start getting crowds back in, even a couple of thousand, we will really push on. Full houses at CR can not be underestimated.

You will see city in gears 4, 5and 6 by mid to late March. Mark my words.

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1 hour ago, CanaryChris said:

When we play Swansea next Saturday we will have played every team currently in the top 10 at their place. Both Swansea and Brentford have 5 such matches to contend with.

We are where we are because of our consistency. We keep finding ways to pick up points. We'll be fine.

Spot on - we have 8 wins at home, 8 away, but we’ve played (nearly) all the top sides on our travels.  The flip side is that we do still have to play a fair number of the top half at home, where we have struggled a bit to put sides away.

Ultimately though, of course we are where we deserve to be - it’s a results/points based business and the league position reflects that.

Edited by Branston Pickle

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It is a difficult season to read as we haven’t ever really seemed to click into top gear yet we are top by a few points. In the main we seem to find away but I think the bit that plays in the sub-conscious is that were only winning games narrowly and a bit of bad luck here and there and 3pts can turn to 1.

in counter balance, most teams that have come to Carrow Road (or even most away games) and want to sit behind the ball and hit us on the break and when that starts to happen to Swansea it will be interesting to see how they cope with it. Brentford have looked good all season in fairness and they like us also had a slow start, it will be interesting to see how they cope when they do invariably lose a game soon.

Overall, we’re in good shape, I think these next 9 games in 30 odd days are crucial, I think Swansea have 11 with the cup game so this is a test of squads, where we should have more depth than most. shame we can’t get into the grounds to watch the climax. 

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1 hour ago, nutty nigel said:

Well two seasons ago we were top despite our defensive frailties. We drew 3-3 with Forest from 3-0 down. We lost 3-4 v derby. We beat Millwall 4-3 after being behind twice. Others I remember are Bolton 3-2, WBA 3-4, Hull 3-2... 

We very often got a result thanks to at least one goal in added time. The consensus was our luck would run out. 

So I guess what I'm saying is whatever the results they could be viewed negatively or positively. And it's usually negatively after a defeat. But we drew yesterday...

Drew yesterday with 10 men against a side competing for the playoffs**

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Are we rightfully a top two team? - The table does not lie. I'm pleasantly surprised we got rid of the inevitable hangover so quickly.

Despite our league position why are our shots on target per game stats so poor? Partially as we try to walk it in and sometimes we don't just uncork one and see what happens.

Will we likely get automatic promotion even if there are better teams than us (will our experience help see this out)? What better teams? Brentford, Swansea and Watford are around our level, but I don't think there are any teams that are clearly better. If we keep our players fit, I'd be confident we'll make it automatically - and this comes from a poster who thought we'd probably lose in the play-offs on penalties when doing the forecasts at the start of the season. 

I wonder why we haven't battered anyone like Brentford are capable of doing? I'd rather win more games 1-0 or 2-1 than batter one team 7-2 and draw games we should win.

If we do get promoted will we retain Buendia and Aarons? Yep. 

Are we equipped to hold our own in the premier league this time? Need another first-team centre-half, and to avoid a litany of injuries to said centre-halves. If we do, we should be able to make a decent fight of it, but whether it's enough is another story. Would depend on the likes of Giannoulis, Rupp, and Sorensen stepping up.

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13 hours ago, Mullet said:

Yes I guess you're right, I would take a 1-0 win all day long but we seem lack lustre. I can't remember a game where we played great

Well, I thought Bristol at home was a fairly complete performance and a 2-0 score line (could have been more) and we were fantastic in the first half against Cardiff away and we did that without Krul (or McGovern) and Pukki! I think our scorelines haven't always reflected how well we played, but ultimately if we win every game we need to get promoted by 1-0 I'd bite your hand off. Its effectively what Sheff Utd did the season we all went up, they were rock solid at the back and that allowed them to only need to find one goal to win the match! 

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Points and league position way beyond my pre season expectations. defensive record way beyond my expectations. In attack we are not what we were 2 seasons ago but we cannot have everything. Pukki still good but slightly past his best IMO as with Vrancic. Steipermann now a busted flush. Skipp outstanding so too Sorenson. buendia a class act at this level great to still see him at the club, same comments for Cantwell. Hugill showing signs of being a got plan B option getting unfortunate injuries at the wrong time. Hernandez mixture of injuries and poor form when he has played, Platecha shows promise but more of an impact player at the moment, not sure he will get much game time if we go up. All this and we have sold two good players for good money

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Playing home or away this season is pretty much an irrelevance. There seems little advantage one way or the other due to no fans allowed in the grounds.
 

The last set of PL matches contained four home wins and four away wins. The previous set of matches had just one home win and six away wins. I stand to be corrected, but I don’t think there has been as many away wins in any previous season so far.

Take out Pukki and Buendia, ( and unfortunately we have lost one for the next two matches ), and there isn’t a reliable goal scorer in the rest of the squad. Vrancic’s dribble into the penalty box, followed by his derisable effort on goal, perfectly sums it up.

If Pukki or Buendia are out for any length of time during the rest of the season, we will struggle.

For all those who suggest it was a good point on Saturday, you are absolutely spot on. For any team playing at home that fails to have a single shot on target, there are only two possible results - a draw or a loss. We managed a draw.

All City supporters would have agreed that we had a ‘strong bench’ on Saturday. Yet as per usual, we start the second-half as if we’re totally disinterested, and Farke returned to his sins of the past, which was to be unable to effect the game by a change of personnel or a change of tactics.

It is most unusual for a team leading at the top, not to have found first gear at some point after 26 matches. There is no evidence to show that we aren’t already in our top gear and the Bristol City game is as good as it gets here on in.

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Certainly not been the fluent team we were back in 18/19

 

Cant quite understand how we are top of the table. 

 

However we have been extremely resilient and that knack of winning by one goal is the sign of a good team. 

 

My big concern is how this side would do in the Prem as for me;

We're not playing aswell as we did 18/19

We don't have the untapped and unknown potential in some of our young players that we had going up in 19/20

The the current team/squad is undoubtedly weaker than 18/19

We still wouldn't provide serious investment. 

 

Edited by CDMullins

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5 minutes ago, CDMullins said:

Certainly not been the fluent team we were back in 18/19

 

Cant quite understand how we are top of the table. 

 

However we have been extremely resilient and that knack of winning by one goal is the sign of a good team. 

 

My big concern is how this side would do in the Prem as for me;

We're not playing aswell as we did 18/19

We don't have the untapped and unknown potential in some of our young players that we had going up in 19/20

The the current team/squad is undoubtedly weaker than 18/19

We still would provide serious investment. 

 

I think we are better a team (squad) this season than 2018/2019.  The last few games have not been our best.  Across the season so far we are not as fluent going forward, but much better at the back.  In terms of going forward we have more options / alternatives than last time.   I am just not sure which combination of attackers will create chances in the premiership. 

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My main worry is that we still seem a bit one dimensional. At times I wonder whether DF is a bit too obsessed with possession.  Very interesting watching Liverpool yesterday- they can play some great possession based football but seem to know when and how to pop it long and mix it up. Our rather languid pace of play makes it even more difficult to break down an opposition which plays deep, compact and physically strong. This is what we will come up against in the Prem again if we go up. Our tactics seem to have evolved only to the extent that the FBs don't get quite so ahead of the midfield as often as they used to, which is why there is less space behind for the opposition and helps us remain solid. But I do think we need to be more direct more often, especially as we have Hernandez and Placheta in the squad. Against really deep defending I do think Hugill with his aerial threat is a good bet- maybe 3-5-2 in those situations?

Against a strong well drilled PL team (which will set up very similar to MBoro on Sat)  I think we still lack a really physically strong midfielder who can shield and protect the ball well. Skipp, McLean, Rupp and hopefully Soresnen are all great but relatively lightweight and need to move the ball on, when pressed it all becomes too hurried and  negative. That stronger physicality would perhaps allow Cantwell and Buendia a little more licence to roam and create.

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48 minutes ago, Newtopia said:

I think we are better a team (squad) this season than 2018/2019.  The last few games have not been our best.  Across the season so far we are not as fluent going forward, but much better at the back.  In terms of going forward we have more options / alternatives than last time.   I am just not sure which combination of attackers will create chances in the premiership. 

I'd much prefer to be going up with Lewis/Godfrey than Demertis/Gibson.

And a two year younger and on fire Teemu Pukki. 

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Take Skipp, most likely Buendia and Aarons, out of the team, and with an older Pukki ploughing a lonely farrow upfront, there is only ever likely one outcome next season if City were to get promoted. 
 

Still, much more fun being a yo-yo club if it means success every other year. Supporters of many other Championship clubs must look on us with much envy.

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1 hour ago, CDMullins said:

I'd much prefer to be going up with Lewis/Godfrey than Demertis/Gibson.

And a two year younger and on fire Teemu Pukki. 

Godfrey and Gibson would be amazing together.  Not as sure about Lewis, I liked him but I am hopeful Demetrius will be an upgrade.  

Pukki two years ago was on fire.  I think he has been hampered by niggling injuries for the last 12 months - still fantastic obviously.

Edited by Newtopia

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3 hours ago, unique said:

Take Skipp, most likely Buendia and Aarons, out of the team, and with an older Pukki ploughing a lonely farrow upfront, there is only ever likely one outcome next season if City were to get promoted. 
 

Still, much more fun being a yo-yo club if it means success every other year. Supporters of many other Championship clubs must look on us with much envy.

Agree with this but not sure we can hope to bounce straight back up every time we go down.

A promotion every 2/3 years would be OK as long as the parachute cheques keep arriving.

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