When will the UK rejoin the EU?

[Rock The Boat 1,326]

This is taken from the Spectator, and why Financial Services is not a Brexit issue

LATEST NEWS

Britain should now brace itself for a barrage of Brussels red tape

ANTHONY BROWNE

 

 

Should we be worried that the UK didn’t get all that it wanted for financial services in the UK-EU Trade deal, as the PM mentioned to the Sunday Telegraph? Financial services are our biggest export industry by some margin, including to the EU, as well as (arguably) our biggest taxpayer, so anything that hampers it could have serious economic repercussions. The EU for its part has said that it will consider in its own time if it will grant ‘equivalence’ to UK financial services, making it easier for UK based institutions to serve customers in the EU, and will only do so if it is in the EU’s interest. The Chancellor, Rishi Sunak, has already unilaterally granted EU equivalence status, providing continuity for EU financial services companies operating here.

The truth is that the biggest threat to our financial services industry is not whether the EU grants equivalence. As chief executive of the British Bankers’ Association at the time of the Brexit referendum, I co-ordinated the negotiations between UK financial services companies, the UK government, the European Commission and the European Council, and it soon became clear that there are enough legal mechanisms for UK based financial services companies to carry on serving their clients in the EU whatever was in the final trade deal, or indeed no deal. It required setting up legal entities in Frankfurt and Amsterdam, setting up some IT systems and transfer of some capital and staff to satisfy local regulators, which is what the industry then did. There is a reason why our banks employ some of the most creative, intelligent and well-paid lawyers on the planet. I simplify, and there are exceptions (such as retail banking), but the more we looked at how the industry should respond to Brexit, the less a threat it seemed. Many of the UK’s top bankers told me, in private, that Brexit actually didn’t really make any difference to them.

The bigger long term threat is how far the EU uses future financial services regulation to become more protectionist and shut UK-based institutions out. I was on the board of the European Banking Federation for five years and in the first meeting after the Brexit referendum, I wanted to reaffirm a commitment to maintaining a single market in financial services. I expected it to be 27 to 1 ; it was 27 to 1, with the isolated one not the UK, but France – the French Banking Association alone immediately saw this as an opportunity to isolate London and set about turning other countries to their view. After the Brexit referendum, the French government launched a high profile campaign to get banks to relocate to Paris, but they were largely rebuffed. With the UK no longer around the table, we should be prepared for a barrage of new EU regulations whose unstated aim is to force London businesses to relocate. What will stop are new EU rules that make the EU less competitive compared to London. A leading French banker told me after a few glasses of wine: ‘you shouldn’t underestimate how terrified the French government is of Britain going it alone’.

For the UK, this is now an opportunity to set out our own clear strategy as the leading global financial services centre. The Chancellor has launched a review of the future of financial services and is quite rightly talking up the upsides. The umbrella body theCityUK (on whose board I sat for many years) is setting out its vision of a global financial services powerhouse based on high standards, innovation, competitiveness and openness to global talent, powered by a close working relationship between industry, regulators and government.

One area it could be useful to review is extraterritoriality: the global application of the financial services regulation we have inherited from the EU. Brussels, with a keen eye on the US, has relished trying to set global standards by requiring EU-based financial services institutions to obey EU rules wherever they operate in the world, rather than operating by local regulations. This extraterritoriality can put EU and UK institutions at a serious disadvantage compared to those from other countries (including the US). This is far more of an issue for the UK than other EU countries because so many more of our financial institutions are global in reach.

On a recent delegation to Brussels, British financial services representatives were told by a laconic senior French European Commission official: ‘There is now a clear race between the EU trying to take a bigger share of London’s business, and London trying to take a bigger share of international business’. But the official is also a realist and added: “We all know who is going to win that race”.

   

[BigFish 1,986]

7 minutes ago, Rock The Boat said:

This is taken from the Spectator, and why Financial Services is not a Brexit issue

LATEST NEWS

Britain should now brace itself for a barrage of Brussels red tape

ANTHONY BROWNE

Is that Anthony Browne, Conservative MP for South Cambridgeshire doing a bit of brown nosing in the hope of a cabinet post?

[Van wink 2,994]

1 hour ago, Herman said:

The trouble is that both ours and India's economies went on a bit of a dive. Their's was a slightly worse dive. We'll have to see how our GDP fares once outside the EU with new barriers to trade.

Yeh I think I mentioned the impact of Covid. The forecasts I have seen for GDP indicate a slowing post Brexit followed in the longer term by increased growth. As you say we will have to see how things go.

[Bill 1,788]

two posts on a non football thread during the game

as it's almost as if you aren't a ST holder who has the game to watch or perhaps this game isn't being carried on French TV

.....or as I suspect you are not really interested in our club

either way, it should have some thinking

[benchwarmer 624]

EU Customs are delighted with our new blue passports.  They make us stand out a mile (or should that be a kilometre?) and their job so much easier.  They're wondering why they didn't think of it themselves.

Edited December 29, 2020 by benchwarmer

[Bill 1,788]

3 hours ago, BigFish said:

Is that Anthony Browne, Conservative MP for South Cambridgeshire doing a bit of brown nosing in the hope of a cabinet post?

not the brightest quote to put up

one that points out that other countries look out for their own interests

and that the UK will face MORE red tape outside the EU

something farmers, hauliers, fishermen and exporters are already finding out

maybe we will next be told that UK holiday makers will face delays and reduced amounts of alcohol and tobacco they can take back with them

[Rock The Boat 1,326]

4 hours ago, BigFish said:

Is that Anthony Browne, Conservative MP for South Cambridgeshire doing a bit of brown nosing in the hope of a cabinet post?

I hope he gets a cabinet post. He is Chief Executive of the British Bankers' Association, chairman of the UK Government's Regulatory Policy Committee, on the Boards of the International Banking Federation, the European Banking Federation and TheCityUK, plus a range of financial technology companies. Exactly the kind of person with expertise in fields outside of politics whose experience will be invaluable to post-Brexit Britain.

He has also been a journalist for the Times, BBC and the Observer. So he is probably a bit Wet, but you can't have everything.

[Rock The Boat 1,326]

13 hours ago, sonyc said:

Thank you for a much needed different angle in discussions about this 'deal'. So far, there are only the tired assertions of 'sovereignty' which is difficult to define but permits Brexit voters something to project onto.

I think the EU has significant problems. You're correct that it is very imbalanced with arguably Germany being the main force. France might wish to consider itself as a joint leader but it cannot really compare. Much of the smaller European countries have small economies and many have populations suffering quite deep poverty, coupled with low annual incomes. The Structural funds established to distribute resources are well developed and in the area of capital investment, such funds can (and have) made a huge difference (like transportation improvements which help local economies). The revenue funding is a boost but time-limited, often for as long as the funding stream. I've always felt that area-based solutions are innovative but not long lasting, because it becomes such a challenge to mainstream the effects of the funding. The answer can only be structural, at a national state level.

So, in this situation, it will be a struggle to distribute these structural funds to some members (say like Bulgaria or Chechnya). Fairness will be a thorny issue. Some of those eastern members still have former social and economic structures harking back to the days of Soviet control...the 1950s even. How can you easily rebalance economies? You can't easily. It will take decades.

Chechnya?? Are they in the queue to join the EU? I didn't realise that. If so, I think we dodged a bullet in more ways than one. If you think the Roumanians are bad enough, wait for the Chechnyans to arrive....

Still, the Chechnyan leader has a novel way to deal with Covid in his country, I think a few posters on here would approve of his methods:

While countries around the world have imposed various restrictions, including fines and curfews, to contain the COVID-19 pandemic, the leader of Chechnya, a Muslim republic in Russia’s North Caucasus, has proposed a much more radical measure - to kill anyone who violates the isolation order and spreads the virus.

Ramzan Kadyrov, the leader of Chechnya said at a local government meeting that "anyone who has been ordered to stay in quarantine, but who breaches the order and infects other people...

[sonyc 5,492]

8 minutes ago, Rock The Boat said:

Chechnya?? Are they in the queue to join the EU? I didn't realise that. If so, I think we dodged a bullet in more ways than one. If you think the Roumanians are bad enough, wait for the Chechnyans to arrive....

Still, the Chechnyan leader has a novel way to deal with Covid in his country, I think a few posters on here would approve of his methods:

While countries around the world have imposed various restrictions, including fines and curfews, to contain the COVID-19 pandemic, the leader of Chechnya, a Muslim republic in Russia’s North Caucasus, has proposed a much more radical measure - to kill anyone who violates the isolation order and spreads the virus.

Ramzan Kadyrov, the leader of Chechnya said at a local government meeting that "anyone who has been ordered to stay in quarantine, but who breaches the order and infects other people...

Aye, should have been Czechia!😅 it was predictive text that changed it and I didn't czech!

Have read Andrey Kurkov's book recently and worth a read (Death and the Penguin, a follow up to A Matter of Death or Life) which is not only extremely entertaining but has lots of little historical references in there. He is Ukrainian. Anyway, that's my new year tip for your reading!

Edited December 30, 2020 by sonyc

[Rock The Boat 1,326]

1 minute ago, sonyc said:

Aye, should have been Czechia!😅

I think their beer will get them membership, no problem🍻

[sonyc 5,492]

1 minute ago, Rock The Boat said:

I think their beer will get them membership, no problem🍻

Haha, I've just edited my original post above with a recommendation for you!

[Creative Midfielder 1,985]

14 hours ago, Van wink said:

5th largest economy in the world.

Not any longer it isn't.

[Van wink 2,994]

12 minutes ago, Creative Midfielder said:

Not any longer it isn't.

Do you have a link to the latest tables?

[BigFish 1,986]

11 hours ago, Rock The Boat said:

I hope he gets a cabinet post. He is Chief Executive of the British Bankers' Association, chairman of the UK Government's Regulatory Policy Committee, on the Boards of the International Banking Federation, the European Banking Federation and TheCityUK, plus a range of financial technology companies. Exactly the kind of person with expertise in fields outside of politics whose experience will be invaluable to post-Brexit Britain.

He has also been a journalist for the Times, BBC and the Observer. So he is probably a bit Wet, but you can't have everything.

He is a fully paid up member of the chumocracy with no obvious skills or talent for government.

[BigFish 1,986]

2 hours ago, Van wink said:

Do you have a link to the latest tables?

https://www.investopedia.com/insights/worlds-top-economies/

[How I Wrote Elastic Man 1,181]

I don't see the UK rejoining in the short term ( next 5-10 years)

Brexit will need to be given time to find out how well the UK has done (or not done)

If most people feel we are better off, or only slightly worse off, then I think we remain outside the block 

Only if Brexit is a complete disaster will we reapply. I don't want to see this, nor think it will happen. If it did happen  I guess we would have the Euro, Schengen etc, which would really fire up the euro sceptics 

 

[Van wink 2,994]

1 hour ago, BigFish said:

https://www.investopedia.com/insights/worlds-top-economies/

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

1 hour ago, Van wink said:

It doesn't say in what direction we will accelerate away from France😗

[BigFish 1,986]

1 hour ago, Van wink said:

 

Does this include the £50 Billion NI economy that effectievly gets hived off to the Republic on Friday?

[nevermind, neoliberalism has had it 159]

16 hours ago, Rock The Boat said:

I hope he gets a cabinet post. He is Chief Executive of the British Bankers' Association, chairman of the UK Government's Regulatory Policy Committee, on the Boards of the International Banking Federation, the European Banking Federation and TheCityUK, plus a range of financial technology companies. Exactly the kind of person with expertise in fields outside of politics whose experience will be invaluable to post-Brexit Britain.

He has also been a journalist for the Times, BBC and the Observer. So he is probably a bit Wet, but you can't have everything.

I bet he's excellent in finding accounts in the Turks and Caicos or Good ol' Jersey for oligarchs and clients with money to park/hide.

 

[Van wink 2,994]

3 hours ago, BigFish said:

Does this include the £50 Billion NI economy that effectievly gets hived off to the Republic on Friday?

The quality of these Brexit threads is not what it was 😁

[BigFish 1,986]

1 hour ago, Van wink said:

The quality of these Brexit threads is not what it was 😁

I don't know, now the Brexwits cannot peddle their continuous falsehoods because the deal is there for all to see it has improved greatly. In this case I asked you a question that you are either unable or unwilling to answer. There is a regularity border down the North Sea, is NI included in the in the UK economy, or even on what basis could it be included?

On the argument on the league table of economies the CEBR's figures cannot have included Q4 2020 or the significant downgrades for growth in 2021 that most economists are making. The Brexwits peddled the "fifth largest economy" tosh to big up the UK. Scotland's independence would further reduce this figure. The problem is that the UK is a relatively large population, this is a factor of that position. Claiming to be the worlds 25th richest country especially as a quarter of that GDP is produced by Remain voting London doesn't quite cut the nativist exceptionalist mustard.

[Van wink 2,994]

Nobody peddled anything, my comment was said to be incorrect, I just wanted that challenge substantiated, which you tried but failed to do. 

[Yellow Fever 3,749]

Perhaps this thread should be renamed "when will England rejoin the EU" ?

[Van wink 2,994]

2 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

Perhaps this thread should be renamed "when will England rejoin the EU" ?

Or maybe when will Essex rejoin 

[benchwarmer 624]

On 29/12/2020 at 17:58, Bill said:

Farage ?

Still on the Internet peddling dodgy 'advice' - only this time it is some cryptocurrency scam.

The creep has never been any better than how he dresses, as some 1950's second hand car salesman who props up the bar at the local golf club and calls everyone squire.

Financially he hit on a winner a few decades back when he became an MEP. The pay and the perks were good, and he didn't have to turn up much either. He didn't.

It makes you wonder whether a country that could elect Farage to the European Parliament was really fit to be a member of the EU in the first place.

[Herman 9,717]

17 minutes ago, benchwarmer said:

It makes you wonder whether a country that could elect Farage to the European Parliament was really fit to be a member of the EU in the first place.

I'd also say a country that thought Johnson was the answer probably deserves all the **** coming its way.

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

27 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

Perhaps this thread should be renamed "when will England rejoin the EU" ?

Or when will the EU ask to join the UK? The utopia prescribed by Gove at the despatch box must make it so inviting.

When I saw the snake backing up Boris I thought of the Depeche Mode song using a little poetic license, "Master and Serpent"🐍

[BigFish 1,986]

1 hour ago, Van wink said:

Nobody peddled anything, my comment was said to be incorrect, I just wanted that challenge substantiated, which you tried but failed to do. 

Fair point, well made, I think you have me on this one 😀

[Bill 1,788]

I see Johnson is doing his best to keep up the lie count

"And he insisted carmakers have been handed the “certainty of continuing to sell into the rest of the EU” – although crucial rules-of-origin have not been decided permanently."

and in the Parrot Sketch Award of 2020 he gave us this

"..repeatedly refused to admit to new barriers to trade, even though businesses will have to fill in 200 million new customs forms from New Year’s Day. Instead, he claimed: “They'll now have the advantage that they'll only have one set of forms they have to fill out for export to around the whole world."

and further being

"reminded there will be border checks on animals and plants, musicians touring the EU will need work permits and “paperwork if you want to take your dog on holiday”.

“There will be new barriers, because if you don’t admit that honestly now, aren’t people going to be really peeved when they find out?” Ms Kuenssberg said."