When will the UK rejoin the EU?

[sonyc 5,509]

8 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

I guess most people would characterise the professional comedy circuit as 'left wing so I dont think so.

I think its the playfulness that amuses the most, or perhaps the contrast with the rest of us who attempt the comedy but fall flat on our faces  

Aye, agree there. 

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

4 hours ago, Barbe bleu said:

For all his faults he is quite funny though.  Probably the funniest character on here.

Don't bother applying for the post of Entertainment Critic on the Sunday Express.

[Fen Canary 811]

2 hours ago, Yellow Fever said:

What we all have to remember is that within 5 years Scotland will almost certainly be breaking away and NI looking to unify with Eire.

So what will England look like in 5 years?  The old Brexiters will be passing and the young and economically active go-getters will be ever more impatient living in a self isolating globally constrained twee tourist attraction. The 1970s English disease and the brain drain will have returned.

So yes, our coming of age tantrums will have burnt themselves out and we will be looking to rejoin the 21st century.

How do you know what the EU will look like in 5/10 years time that we would be so desperate to join it? The problems regarding the imbalance the single currency has caused between Germany and the Mediterranean countries has never been properly addressed, with countries such as Italy’s debt problems mounting all the time. Germany is becoming reliant on Russian energy, the Eastern Europe nations are starting to flex their muscle and refusing to bow to the Western nations wishes now they’re not as reliant on EU funds as they once were. The UK leaving leaves a large hole in the EU budget which will have to be paid by countries who up until now have been beneficiaries of EU money. The migrant crisis is still ongoing, and is causing far right support to steadily grow in a number of nations. Why do all the posters on here assume the EU will thrive without the UK, despite these structural problems within the organisation, while thinking the UK will simply crash and burn now they have a bit more paperwork to fill out when exporting goods to Europe? 
 

[Rock The Boat 1,329]

8 hours ago, Bill said:

are you saying a no  UK arbitration will still sort out disputes, the UK is still paying the EU, folk from the EU can wander into the UK as they please, the EU controls the borders and in fact now has one inside the UK,

you'll be telling us next that there are to be umpteen EU committees deciding on how close the UK remains over the following years

still. the UK has gained total control over it’s fishing areas as from Jan 1st 😆

As somebody who for over four years said Brexit would never happen, I think we can take your ability to forecast with a large pinch of salt. How Gina Millar doing these days, daddy-o?

[Rock The Boat 1,329]

Five years from now the former countries of the EU will be queueing up to join a free trade system with the UK. We could call it the Common Market or something similar. There would be no Parliament, no law-making Commission, no Courts of Justice, just a small secretariat to deal with the occasional trade dispute. Membership fees would be minimal. I'd be inclined to allow Germany to join but no way would the Frogs be allowed in.

[Surfer 1,547]

One direct result of this Brexit is that when my company expands to Europe, it won’t be putting it’s headquarters in the UK. It might be in Berlin or Brussels, but the UK just shot itself in the foot as an easy access to EU markets (plus native English speakers) was very attractive to a US company. That’s gone now, and no amount of tax incentives will make up for the extra costs of doing business - importation, currency Xchange, accounting and tax regulations etc - we’d rather “be there” than be “looking in from the outside” . By the time the UK sorts this all out it won’t be my recommendation to make any longer. Yes, it’s just one company but multiply that by a few thousand and you have a real negative impact on UK business and international clout. 

Edited December 29, 2020 by Surfer

[Creative Midfielder 1,996]

14 hours ago, cambridgeshire canary said:

At least a decade or two and only if the party in power arent the tories.

No way In hell would I ever see the Tories allowing a vote to rejoin.

Then again given brexit took five years and split this country in half and I'm sure everyone would not want a repeat-

Does anyone really want another brexit debate for another five whatever years?

I don't doubt for a minute that many would agree with those views but the reality is that the Brexit 'debate', albeit in a slightly modified form, is certain to continue for years anyway as the consequences of Brexit make themselves felt - there have been some very negative impacts of Brexit already (especially on our economy) but nevertheless we are still only just stepping up to the starting gate as far as the long term impacts of Johnson's ridiculous Withdrawal Agreement and now his very very poor trade deal start to hit us, so I'm pretty sure that some kind of debate over Brexit is going to continue for the foreseeable future and beyond.

You are right about splitting the country as well but Brexit actually happening hasn't healed that split one iota (IMO), quite the reverse. It seems to me the split has become deeper and more bitter, and it is not just an even split across the UK generally - England is the only country within the union that had a substantial majority for Brexit (Wales was very close and swung to Brexit only by English incomers living just inside the border) - Scotland and NI voted remain. Both Brexit and the incompetent handling of the pandemic by Johnson are strong drivers towards Scottish independence and Irish re-unification, so the divides between the constituent parts of the UK are far deeper now than they were at the time of the vote and the fallout from Johnson's deals will be especially strongly felt in both NI & Scotland so that push is going to continue.

The other factor I think you should consider before you dismiss the idea of another vote is the demographics - at the time of the vote itself Brexit only commanded a majority in two age groups 65-75 & 75+. All the polling evidence since suggests that demographics or Mother Nature if you prefer has already had an impact and that it is now only the 75+ age group that contains a Brexit majority. Add in that in the under 30 age group being mid-70% for Remain (Rejoin?) and it is pretty clear that trend will continue - I know its a bit of a morbid (no pun intended) subject but with 600,000+ deaths a year in the UK (not all elderly but the vast majority are) and around 700,000+ youngsters becoming eligible to vote each year you can see that the balance of opinion can swing pretty quickly. In fact whilst I'm not suggesting opinion polls are any substitute for a real vote it is nevertheless the case that opinion polls are already showing that the baance of opinion has swung from Leave to Remain and again that is before we've felt anything like the full damage of leaving.

 

[benchwarmer 624]

Brexit is slow suicide.  The best thing about it is that it may save other EU member states from the same senseless act of self-destruction.  Looking at the bigger picture, that would make it almost worthwhile.

I don't think we realise how crucial to the UK was Trump's departure from the White House before the deal was signed.  For a start it scuppered Boris's bill to subvert the Withdrawal Agreement, after Biden made his views known (sovereignty, ha!).  But it also stopped in its tracks the unholy alliance between Trump and Putin aimed at destroying the EU, with Johnson as their useful idiot.  That was Farage's big wet dream.  Where is he now btw?  Probably crying in a corner. 

If Boris thought he was going to "Get Brexit Done" he's about to find out that the fun hasn't even started yet.  When will we rejoin?  Probably not in my lifetime (I'm 70 in a few months) but you never know.

Edited December 29, 2020 by benchwarmer

[sonyc 5,509]

11 hours ago, Fen Canary said:

How do you know what the EU will look like in 5/10 years time that we would be so desperate to join it? The problems regarding the imbalance the single currency has caused between Germany and the Mediterranean countries has never been properly addressed, with countries such as Italy’s debt problems mounting all the time. Germany is becoming reliant on Russian energy, the Eastern Europe nations are starting to flex their muscle and refusing to bow to the Western nations wishes now they’re not as reliant on EU funds as they once were. The UK leaving leaves a large hole in the EU budget which will have to be paid by countries who up until now have been beneficiaries of EU money. The migrant crisis is still ongoing, and is causing far right support to steadily grow in a number of nations. Why do all the posters on here assume the EU will thrive without the UK, despite these structural problems within the organisation, while thinking the UK will simply crash and burn now they have a bit more paperwork to fill out when exporting goods to Europe? 
 

Thank you for a much needed different angle in discussions about this 'deal'. So far, there are only the tired assertions of 'sovereignty' which is difficult to define but permits Brexit voters something to project onto.

I think the EU has significant problems. You're correct that it is very imbalanced with arguably Germany being the main force. France might wish to consider itself as a joint leader but it cannot really compare. Much of the smaller European countries have small economies and many have populations suffering quite deep poverty, coupled with low annual incomes. The Structural funds established to distribute resources are well developed and in the area of capital investment, such funds can (and have) made a huge difference (like transportation improvements which help local economies). The revenue funding is a boost but time-limited, often for as long as the funding stream. I've always felt that area-based solutions are innovative but not long lasting, because it becomes such a challenge to mainstream the effects of the funding. The answer can only be structural, at a national state level.

So, in this situation, it will be a struggle to distribute these structural funds to some members (say like Bulgaria or Chechnya). Fairness will be a thorny issue. Some of those eastern members still have former social and economic structures harking back to the days of Soviet control...the 1950s even. How can you easily rebalance economies? You can't easily. It will take decades.

The EU in the meantime faces huge battles not just in the legitimacy of its leadership with disputes over fairness and distribution but also populism in many nation states. That seems to be one of the main political movements/ forces of the 21st century, that much is clear. How does the EU manage this? Do they have the vision or capability? Our country hasn't had a good recent experience. Perhaps those forces are too strong? Or rather, there isn't much of a compelling vision for the UK (that's my take). I think we have seen competence in dealing with the Greek economic trouble, likewise with Covid support. Both these two things didn't happen easily though and not without great criticism.

So, your post is a good one. I would say being a 'bloc' always contains problems, the politics are so complex. Yet, that's the challenge. The EU isn't about just economics either, it's about technology, security, global influence, for heaven's sake, it's about social cohesion, social mobility and peace. That's why 'sovereignty' is far more of a nuanced term. And isn't it better to be part of something bigger and trying to influence as a member than being outside on your own? (That saying "inside and p1ssing out of the tent").

We don't really know what the EU will be like in 5 years but might we expect to see a gradual expansion?

It will need to be seen as a force that can compete in the global context (China, India, US). That is a mighty challenge. Not one we will be part of though.

Edited December 29, 2020 by sonyc

[BigFish 1,986]

Whether to be in, or to be out is very much about fighting the last war. We are out, but most of the Brexwits objectives have failed. The agreement  means that there will be no tariffs, a framework of common instituitions will be implemented, the acquis is retained, divergence, if not stopped, is slowed to a snails pace and supplementary agreements/competencies will be added. There will be a review in five years time which enables modification, e.g. we could rejoin the single market. It could be a clear foundation to a relationship that is separate, but at the same time indistinguishable from membership to the naked eye, BRINO indeed.

Edited December 29, 2020 by BigFish

[PurpleCanary 5,557]

4 hours ago, sonyc said:

Thank you for a much needed different angle in discussions about this 'deal'. So far, there are only the tired assertions of 'sovereignty' which is difficult to define but permits Brexit voters something to project onto.

I think the EU has significant problems. You're correct that it is very imbalanced with arguably Germany being the main force. France might wish to consider itself as a joint leader but it cannot really compare. Much of the smaller European countries have small economies and many have populations suffering quite deep poverty, coupled with low annual incomes. The Structural funds established to distribute resources are well developed and in the area of capital investment, such funds can (and have) made a huge difference (like transportation improvements which help local economies). The revenue funding is a boost but time-limited, often for as long as the funding stream. I've always felt that area-based solutions are innovative but not long lasting, because it becomes such a challenge to mainstream the effects of the funding. The answer can only be structural, at a national state level.

So, in this situation, it will be a struggle to distribute these structural funds to some members (say like Bulgaria or Chechnya). Fairness will be a thorny issue. Some of those eastern members still have former social and economic structures harking back to the days of Soviet control...the 1950s even. How can you easily rebalance economies? You can't easily. It will take decades.

The EU in the meantime faces huge battles not just in the legitimacy of its leadership with disputes over fairness and distribution but also populism in many nation states. That seems to be one of the main political movements/ forces of the 21st century, that much is clear. How does the EU manage this? Do they have the vision or capability? Our country hasn't had a good recent experience. Perhaps those forces are too strong? Or rather, there isn't much of a compelling vision for the UK (that's my take). I think we have seen competence in dealing with the Greek economic trouble, likewise with Covid support. Both these two things didn't happen easily though and not without great criticism.

So, your post is a good one. I would say being a 'bloc' always contains problems, the politics are so complex. Yet, that's the challenge. The EU isn't about just economics either, it's about technology, security, global influence, for heaven's sake, it's about social cohesion, social mobility and peace. That's why 'sovereignty' is far more of a nuanced term. And isn't it better to be part of something bigger and trying to influence as a member than being outside on your own? (That saying "inside and p1ssing out of the tent").

We don't really know what the EU will be like in 5 years but might we expect to see a gradual expansion?

It will need to be seen as a force that can compete in the global context (China, India, US). That is a mighty challenge. Not one we will be part of though.

Two good posts, from Fen and CM, which are not mutually exclusive in their arguments. One point I saw made in the New York Times was that we are in a protectionist era  (this may change - slowly - with Biden replacing Trump, or it may). That being so, the only players with any clout are the three great trading blocs of the USA, China, and the EU, and as a result the UK has chosen the worst possible moment to go it alone.

[sonyc 5,509]

5 minutes ago, PurpleCanary said:

Two good posts, from Fen and CM, which are not mutually exclusive in their arguments. One point I saw made in the New York Times was that we are in a protectionist era  (this may change - slowly - with Biden replacing Trump, or it may). That being so, the only players with any clout are the three great trading blocs of the USA, China, and the EU, and as a result the UK has chosen the worst possible moment to go it alone.

Yes, that was my point in my last paragraph (perhaps not spelled out enough). And we are alone isolated but believing (somehow) that we are a very important trading force.

[BigFish 1,986]

1 hour ago, sonyc said:

Yes, that was my point in my last paragraph (perhaps not spelled out enough). And we are alone isolated but believing (somehow) that we are a very important trading force.

Kristien Jenson summed it up with "There are two kinds of European nations. There are small nations and there are countries that have not yet realized they are small nations". There is a legacy of Empire in the Brexit mindset that is very much in the latter camp, somehow the UK is exceptional and will thrive for reasons that seem to remain inexplicable.  Strikes me @Fen Canary asks a valid question, but the rationale behind it could well apply to the UK. It too faces problems of democratic legitimacy and of constituent elements breaking away. There is no guarantee it will survive the next decade. A better question is what we do about it?

[Creative Midfielder 1,996]

6 hours ago, Creative Midfielder said:

You are right about splitting the country as well but Brexit actually happening hasn't healed that split one iota (IMO), quite the reverse. It seems to me the split has become deeper and more bitter, and it is not just an even split across the UK generally - England is the only country within the union that had a substantial majority for Brexit (Wales was very close and swung to Brexit only by English incomers living just inside the border) - Scotland and NI voted remain. Both Brexit and the incompetent handling of the pandemic by Johnson are strong drivers towards Scottish independence and Irish re-unification, so the divides between the constituent parts of the UK are far deeper now than they were at the time of the vote and the fallout from Johnson's deals will be especially strongly felt in both NI & Scotland so that push is going to continue.

I hadn't seen this, https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/dec/29/scotland-faces-cuts-to-cod-and-haddock-fisheries-under-brexit-deal, when I wrote the paragraph above this morning but this sort of thing is absolutely the sort of fuel on the fire of Scottish independence that I was talking about.

Johnson is spouting waffly b*llocks about what a fantastic deal it is even though he almost certainly hasn't read it and wouldn't understand it even if he had. Meanwhile Nicola Sturgeon reads the small print and keeps pointing out that not only is it a cr@p deal for everyone but that as usual English interests are given higher priority than Scottish ones. I imagine that she can scarely believe her luck - as far as Scottish Independence is concerned Johnson is the gift that keeps on giving.

[Bill 1,788]

7 hours ago, benchwarmer said:

Brexit is slow suicide.  The best thing about it is that it may save other EU member states from the same senseless act of self-destruction.  Looking at the bigger picture, that would make it almost worthwhile.

I don't think we realise how crucial to the UK was Trump's departure from the White House before the deal was signed.  For a start it scuppered Boris's bill to subvert the Withdrawal Agreement, after Biden made his views known (sovereignty, ha!).  But it also stopped in its tracks the unholy alliance between Trump and Putin aimed at destroying the EU, with Johnson as their useful idiot.  That was Farage's big wet dream.  Where is he now btw?  Probably crying in a corner. 

If Boris thought he was going to "Get Brexit Done" he's about to find out that the fun hasn't even started yet.  When will we rejoin?  Probably not in my lifetime (I'm 70 in a few months) but you never know.

Farage ?

Still on the Internet peddling dodgy 'advice' - only this time it is some cryptocurrency scam.

The creep has never been any better than how he dresses, as some 1950's second hand car salesman who props up the bar at the local golf club and calls everyone squire.

Financially he hit on a winner a few decades back when he became an MEP. The pay and the perks were good, and he didn't have to turn up much either. He didn't.

It was only when increased immigration hit the UK that he found himself having to be answerable for the guff he had been spouting previously. In his favour was the fact that there were enough people in the UK who were actually not interested in ......facts. Likewise reasoned and rational argument. They warded of such stuff, not with garlic, but bysat  rocking in the corner if the room muttering "project fear, project fear".

Farage will return, like a rogue trader robbing some vulnerable householder', with a new spin and another request for donations

And no doubt money will come in, just as it does to US pastors who claim some miraculous healing powers. Because like the poor, and like in the US, the stupid are always with us.

[Van wink 2,994]

3 hours ago, sonyc said:

Yes, that was my point in my last paragraph (perhaps not spelled out enough). And we are alone isolated but believing (somehow) that we are a very important trading force.

5th largest economy in the world.

Edited December 29, 2020 by Van wink

[sonyc 5,509]

2 minutes ago, Van wink said:

5th largest economy in the world.

Is that correct? I didn't know that. 

Then Truss must know her onions  when she talks about all the deals we will be signing (not to forget cheeses).

I assume then that you think Brexit will help strengthen our position and not weaken it? As for trading blocs though I was talking about strength as a trading group (the UK cannot exert anywhere near as much influence on its own).

[Van wink 2,994]

1 minute ago, sonyc said:

Is that correct? I didn't know that. 

Then Truss must know her onions  when she talks about all the deals we will be signing (not to forget cheeses).

I assume then that you think Brexit will help strengthen our position and not weaken it? As for trading blocs though I was talking about strength as a trading group (the UK cannot exert anywhere near as much influence on its own).

Went above India on GDP in the last few days, Covid impact being an issue, but hard to support the view that we are not an important  trading force.

[Bill 1,788]

2 minutes ago, sonyc said:

Is that correct? I didn't know that. 

Then Truss must know her onions  when she talks about all the deals we will be signing (not to forget cheeses).

I assume then that you think Brexit will help strengthen our position and not weaken it? As for trading blocs though I was talking about strength as a trading group (the UK cannot exert anywhere near as much influence on its own).

Unfortunately much of that is financial services, which are dependent upon having passport rights with the EU.

Losing them has seen the US move out of the UK, and this ebbing away will continue.

[sonyc 5,509]

5 minutes ago, Bill said:

Unfortunately much of that is financial services, which are dependent upon having passport rights with the EU.

Losing them has seen the US move out of the UK, and this ebbing away will continue.

Yep, I mentioned this on the other thread I think in response to Paul Moy. Quite a few big companies are ALREADY in advanced plans to move their HQ's out (Germany seems the likely destination where European HQs are being considered). It does make perfect sense from a financial perspective and they are closer to the main decision makers.

[Bill 1,788]

Just now, sonyc said:

Yep, I mentioned this on the other thread I think in response to Paul Moy. Quite a few big companies are ALREADY in advanced plans to move their HQ's out (Germany seems the likely destination where European HQs are being considered). It does make perfect sense from a financial perspective and they are closer to the main decision makers.

It is more a case that without EU passport rights financial services cannot be sold across the EU, by UK based companies

Unfortunately the dimwitted brexiteers haven't the slightest idea if this and so focus their attention on a few fish.

Rather like being concerned about the tea lady losing her part rime job when a huge manufacturing plant closes.

[sonyc 5,509]

1 minute ago, Bill said:

It is more a case that without EU passport rights financial services cannot be sold across the EU, by UK based companies

Unfortunately the dimwitted brexiteers haven't the slightest idea if this and so focus their attention on a few fish.

Rather like being concerned about the tea lady losing her part rime job when a huge manufacturing plant closes.

That's' the equivalence issue isn't it?  I haven't googled sand am about to walk the dog so please excuse the laziness asking

[Bill 1,788]

13 minutes ago, sonyc said:

That's' the equivalence issue isn't it?  I haven't googled sand am about to walk the dog so please excuse the laziness asking

A rather disturbing position to be putting the country in.

Rather like an on-course bookie setting up on the road outside rather than track side, as it will save him a few bob.

https://ukandeu.ac.uk/what-does-the-brexit-trade-deal-mean-for-financial-services/

"the future of the sector is not just a London issue. It contributes around £130 billion to the UK economy and 1.1 million jobs. For example, in Edinburgh around 10% of jobs are in financial and related professional services."

This is what keeps the UK's GDP high, and threatening it so as to be able to cut wages and safety standards will inevitably cause a fall in income

 

Edited December 29, 2020 by Bill

[sonyc 5,509]

Just now, Bill said:

no

cheers, will read up then when I'm back

[Fen Canary 811]

14 minutes ago, sonyc said:

Yep, I mentioned this on the other thread I think in response to Paul Moy. Quite a few big companies are ALREADY in advanced plans to move their HQ's out (Germany seems the likely destination where European HQs are being considered). It does make perfect sense from a financial perspective and they are closer to the main decision makers.

Which companies are these? I’ve been hearing this threat since the referendum but the City now employs more people than it did 5 years ago. I don’t doubt some will set up satellite offices in the EU to get round any tariffs if they appear, but the bulk of the City will be dealing with other major financial centres such as the Asia and the States. European companies are just as likely to set up satellite offices in London in order to keep base with the other major centres, especially if the UK makes it more friendly to do business with deregulation and strikes future trade deals with these other nations more suited to the financial sector. Manufacturing, or what little we have left is largely unaffected by the new deal so would have no reason to move unless to reduce wage costs, which has been happening usually with EU loans and grants for a long time anyway. 

[Van wink 2,994]

2 minutes ago, Fen Canary said:

Which companies are these? I’ve been hearing this threat since the referendum but the City now employs more people than it did 5 years ago. I don’t doubt some will set up satellite offices in the EU to get round any tariffs if they appear, but the bulk of the City will be dealing with other major financial centres such as the Asia and the States. European companies are just as likely to set up satellite offices in London in order to keep base with the other major centres, especially if the UK makes it more friendly to do business with deregulation and strikes future trade deals with these other nations more suited to the financial sector. Manufacturing, or what little we have left is largely unaffected by the new deal so would have no reason to move unless to reduce wage costs, which has been happening usually with EU loans and grants for a long time anyway. 

The predicted mass exodus hasn’t happened, Financial services rely on many other associated professional services which are all integrated in the City, there will undoubtedly be disruption and some losses but nowhere near the Armageddon scale foretold.

[Rock The Boat 1,329]

On 28/12/2020 at 12:12, The Real Buh said:

Talking about the EU is already politically cancerous. People are DONE with it. The general election proved that. No party will talk about it because if they do their ratings will plummet across the board. The new angle for political attack will be the handling of the pandemic. Get the net, slowcoach.

Real Buh gets it. 

Edited December 29, 2020 by Rock The Boat

[Herman 9,750]

49 minutes ago, Van wink said:

Went above India on GDP in the last few days, Covid impact being an issue, but hard to support the view that we are not an important  trading force.

The trouble is that both ours and India's economies went on a bit of a dive. Their's was a slightly worse dive. We'll have to see how our GDP fares once outside the EU with new barriers to trade.

[sonyc 5,509]

10 minutes ago, Fen Canary said:

Which companies are these? I’ve been hearing this threat since the referendum but the City now employs more people than it did 5 years ago. I don’t doubt some will set up satellite offices in the EU to get round any tariffs if they appear, but the bulk of the City will be dealing with other major financial centres such as the Asia and the States. European companies are just as likely to set up satellite offices in London in order to keep base with the other major centres, especially if the UK makes it more friendly to do business with deregulation and strikes future trade deals with these other nations more suited to the financial sector. Manufacturing, or what little we have left is largely unaffected by the new deal so would have no reason to move unless to reduce wage costs, which has been happening usually with EU loans and grants for a long time anyway. 

This is what I put up earlier (source Bloomberg )

City of London Brexit https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-12-29/the-key-issues-weighing-on-the-city-of-london-after-brexit-deal

Another I ought not reveal as my cousin works there - & whilst it may not be commercially sensitive and it may be common knowledge amongst staff I don't wish to take that risk. But another well known company.

I agree about Asia & US but more raising the issue of a declining concentration. These things start to snowball. Though it may not be the worst thing to happen.

 

[Rock The Boat 1,329]

45 minutes ago, sonyc said:

Yep, I mentioned this on the other thread I think in response to Paul Moy. Quite a few big companies are ALREADY in advanced plans to move their HQ's out (Germany seems the likely destination where European HQs are being considered). It does make perfect sense from a financial perspective and they are closer to the main decision makers.

It's two days before the year end. If companies are at the advanced plans stage then they are too late. Those that are moving have already gone. Others are moving in to take their place.