Yellow and Green 334 Posted February 28, 2021 The next two games provide a huge opportunity for us. If we beat Wycombe and Brentford then we'll be 10 points ahead of everyone, with 12 games left to play. That means that the other teams will pretty much have to average a point a game more than us during the run in. Considering we haven't been too far off 2 points per game for most of the season (67 points from 32 games), it seems unlikely. Swansea have five games during the next two weeks - four of them away. Watford and Brentford both have tricky run ins: Brentford: Cardiff, Bournemouth, Watford, Bristol City. Watford: Middlesbrough, Reading, Luton, Norwich, Millwall, Brentford, Swansea. Farke seems to have a great mindset at the moment, taking each game at a time and not underestimating any of our opponents. He's also not fazed when we don't pick up the expected results, so massive credit to him. For what it's worth, I'd love for Brentford to beat Watford to second place. They've been in and around the playoffs for a few years now and have a much better model than the hornets. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Feedthewolf 4,844 Posted February 28, 2021 On 25/02/2021 at 13:22, Feedthewolf said: So we didn't get any more helping hands last night, but all we need to do is keep winning. Stoke (H) WON Coventry (A) WON Rotherham (H) WON Birmingham (A) WON Wycombe (A) If we can win on Saturday and then beat Brentford, we're looking pretty much nailed on. As things stand: Team Played Points Avg Norwich 32 67 2.09 Brentford 32 60 1.88 --------------------------------------------------------------------- Watford 32 60 1.88 Swansea 30 59 1.97 Reading 32 51 1.59 Cardiff 32 49 1.53 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- B'mouth 32 49 1.53 Barnsley 31 48 1.55 Incidentally, if anyone took me up on the Brentford/Swansea/Watford triple from last night at about 7/1, well done! Why not invest some of those winnings in the same triple again on Saturday? Odds are over 8/1... Brentford are the shortest priced at 17/20, whereas for comparison, Norwich are 4/9 to win on Sunday. That'd take the odds to over 12/1 on a fourfold... This is going to be fun. Stoke (H) WON Coventry (A) WON Rotherham (H) WON Birmingham (A) WON Wycombe (A) WON 15 points from 15 puts us in an outstanding position. Two of our three closest rivals lost yesterday. Even a draw on Wednesday would be absolutely fine. Team Played Points Avg Norwich 33 70 2.12 Brentford 33 63 1.91 --------------------------------------------------------------------- Watford 33 60 1.82 Swansea 31 59 1.90 Reading 33 54 1.64 B'mouth 33 52 1.58 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Barnsley 32 51 1.59 Cardiff 33 50 1.52 The next five: Brentford (H) Luton Town (H) Sheffield Wednesday (A) Nottingham Forest (A) Blackburn Rovers (H) Since I started this thread, we've got 33 points from 15 games. That means that even if we only get seven points from the next five games, we'll still be on target (40 points from 20 games). If we can beat Brentford on Wednesday, our confidence will be sky-high. Let's say we get 10 points from these next five; we've then got a two-week international break, followed by our last eight games. To be on 80 points with eight games remaining, we'd still be sauntering to the title. If we win the next five, which isn't unthinkable on our current form, we could be very close to mathematically being promoted with a month still to go! 1 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
GenerationA47 747 Posted February 28, 2021 7 minutes ago, Feedthewolf said: This is going to be fun. Stoke (H) WON Coventry (A) WON Rotherham (H) WON Birmingham (A) WON Wycombe (A) WON 15 points from 15 puts us in an outstanding position. Two of our three closest rivals lost yesterday. Even a draw on Wednesday would be absolutely fine. Team Played Points Avg Norwich 33 70 2.12 Brentford 33 63 1.91 --------------------------------------------------------------------- Watford 33 60 1.82 Swansea 31 59 1.90 Reading 33 54 1.64 B'mouth 33 52 1.58 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Barnsley 32 51 1.59 Cardiff 33 50 1.52 The next five: Brentford (H) Luton Town (H) Sheffield Wednesday (A) Nottingham Forest (A) Blackburn Rovers (H) Since I started this thread, we've got 33 points from 15 games. That means that even if we only get seven points from the next five games, we'll still be on target (40 points from 20 games). If we can beat Brentford on Wednesday, our confidence will be sky-high. Let's say we get 10 points from these next five; we've then got a two-week international break, followed by our last eight games. To be on 80 points with eight games remaining, we'd still be sauntering to the title. If we win the next five, which isn't unthinkable on our current form, we could be very close to mathematically being promoted with a month still to go! Well played! it’s that time, Mr Wolf And voilà you serve up the post we were waiting for 1 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
paddycanary 538 Posted February 28, 2021 6 hours ago, Feedthewolf said: This is going to be fun. Stoke (H) WON Coventry (A) WON Rotherham (H) WON Birmingham (A) WON Wycombe (A) WON 15 points from 15 puts us in an outstanding position. Two of our three closest rivals lost yesterday. Even a draw on Wednesday would be absolutely fine. Team Played Points Avg Norwich 33 70 2.12 Brentford 33 63 1.91 --------------------------------------------------------------------- Watford 33 60 1.82 Swansea 31 59 1.90 Reading 33 54 1.64 B'mouth 33 52 1.58 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Barnsley 32 51 1.59 Cardiff 33 50 1.52 The next five: Brentford (H) Luton Town (H) Sheffield Wednesday (A) Nottingham Forest (A) Blackburn Rovers (H) Since I started this thread, we've got 33 points from 15 games. That means that even if we only get seven points from the next five games, we'll still be on target (40 points from 20 games). If we can beat Brentford on Wednesday, our confidence will be sky-high. Let's say we get 10 points from these next five; we've then got a two-week international break, followed by our last eight games. To be on 80 points with eight games remaining, we'd still be sauntering to the title. If we win the next five, which isn't unthinkable on our current form, we could be very close to mathematically being promoted with a month still to go! Delightful reading. Maybe Luton will deliver this oft-mentioned tonking we keep hearing about across this forum? We owe them a sound defeat. It's looking good to have promotion wrapped up with 2 or 3 games to spare! 👍👍 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Surfer 1,547 Posted February 28, 2021 The crazy thing is we could lose three games and still get to 100 points this season 🙂 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Feedthewolf 4,844 Posted March 4, 2021 On 28/02/2021 at 14:17, Feedthewolf said: This is going to be fun. Stoke (H) WON Coventry (A) WON Rotherham (H) WON Birmingham (A) WON Wycombe (A) WON 15 points from 15 puts us in an outstanding position. Two of our three closest rivals lost yesterday. Even a draw on Wednesday would be absolutely fine. Team Played Points Avg Norwich 33 70 2.12 Brentford 33 63 1.91 --------------------------------------------------------------------- Watford 33 60 1.82 Swansea 31 59 1.90 Reading 33 54 1.64 B'mouth 33 52 1.58 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Barnsley 32 51 1.59 Cardiff 33 50 1.52 The next five: Brentford (H) Luton Town (H) Sheffield Wednesday (A) Nottingham Forest (A) Blackburn Rovers (H) Since I started this thread, we've got 33 points from 15 games. That means that even if we only get seven points from the next five games, we'll still be on target (40 points from 20 games). If we can beat Brentford on Wednesday, our confidence will be sky-high. Let's say we get 10 points from these next five; we've then got a two-week international break, followed by our last eight games. To be on 80 points with eight games remaining, we'd still be sauntering to the title. If we win the next five, which isn't unthinkable on our current form, we could be very close to mathematically being promoted with a month still to go! Brentford (H) WON Luton Town (H) Sheffield Wednesday (A) Nottingham Forest (A) Blackburn Rovers (H) I'm that close to eliminating Reading, Bournemouth, Barnsley and Cardiff from my table; Reading are 16 points behind us, and I'd be surprised if we dropped more than 16 points between now and the end of the season. This would have been even more fun if not for Kyle Naughton's last-minute con-artistry at Stoke last night, but we're still miles ahead of the rest. Team Played Points Avg Norwich 34 73 2.15 Brentford 34 63 1.85 --------------------------------------------------------------------- Watford 34 63 1.85 Swansea 32 62 1.94 Reading 34 57 1.68 B'mouth 34 55 1.62 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Barnsley 33 54 1.64 Cardiff 34 53 1.56 Nothing frightening in our next four games, and we only need seven points from them to stay on track. I fully expect us to win the next two, but wouldn't be surprised if we had a slip-up against either Forest or Blackburn. Here's another little fun game we can play to count down to winning the league: which teams can no longer mathematically finish above us? So far it's: Coventry, Birmingham, Sheffield Wednesday, Wycombe. 1 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Ekoku: The Ambassador Of The People 122 Posted March 4, 2021 49 minutes ago, Feedthewolf said: Brentford (H) WON Luton Town (H) Sheffield Wednesday (A) Nottingham Forest (A) Blackburn Rovers (H) I'm that close to eliminating Reading, Bournemouth, Barnsley and Cardiff from my table; Reading are 16 points behind us, and I'd be surprised if we dropped more than 16 points between now and the end of the season. This would have been even more fun if not for Kyle Naughton's last-minute con-artistry at Stoke last night, but we're still miles ahead of the rest. Team Played Points Avg Norwich 34 73 2.15 Brentford 34 63 1.85 --------------------------------------------------------------------- Watford 34 63 1.85 Swansea 32 62 1.94 Reading 34 57 1.68 B'mouth 34 55 1.62 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Barnsley 33 54 1.64 Cardiff 34 53 1.56 Nothing frightening in our next four games, and we only need seven points from them to stay on track. I fully expect us to win the next two, but wouldn't be surprised if we had a slip-up against either Forest or Blackburn. Here's another little fun game we can play to count down to winning the league: which teams can no longer mathematically finish above us? So far it's: Coventry, Birmingham, Sheffield Wednesday, Wycombe. Safe from relegation. Phew!! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
cambridgeshire canary 6,675 Posted March 4, 2021 1 hour ago, Ekoku: The Ambassador Of The People said: Safe from relegation. Phew!! Thank god for that, was really worried 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Feedthewolf 4,844 Posted March 4, 2021 (edited) 1 hour ago, Ekoku: The Ambassador Of The People said: Safe from relegation. Phew!! Love the way Farke keeps saying we have to get to 80 points to guarantee a playoff place. He knows as well as anybody that we're going to take the title. Edited March 4, 2021 by Feedthewolf 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
sgncfc 1,221 Posted March 4, 2021 It's a great mindset to make sure everyone stays focussed. We have achieved nothing until we get 80 points. Then we haven't achieved what we want to achieve until we get to 90. There will be blips - we haven't done well against Luton in the last few years; not quite a bogey team, but it would be nice to beat them for once. Then Sheff Weds away is never easy; Hughton will want to beat us at Forest; Blackburn also have players who can hurt us. None of these are foregone conclusions but I still think we'll get at least 8 points from these next four games to stay on track. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Feedthewolf 4,844 Posted March 6, 2021 On 04/03/2021 at 13:26, Feedthewolf said: Brentford (H) WON Luton Town (H) Sheffield Wednesday (A) Nottingham Forest (A) Blackburn Rovers (H) I'm that close to eliminating Reading, Bournemouth, Barnsley and Cardiff from my table; Reading are 16 points behind us, and I'd be surprised if we dropped more than 16 points between now and the end of the season. This would have been even more fun if not for Kyle Naughton's last-minute con-artistry at Stoke last night, but we're still miles ahead of the rest. Team Played Points Avg Norwich 34 73 2.15 Brentford 34 63 1.85 --------------------------------------------------------------------- Watford 34 63 1.85 Swansea 32 62 1.94 Reading 34 57 1.68 B'mouth 34 55 1.62 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Barnsley 33 54 1.64 Cardiff 34 53 1.56 Nothing frightening in our next four games, and we only need seven points from them to stay on track. I fully expect us to win the next two, but wouldn't be surprised if we had a slip-up against either Forest or Blackburn. Here's another little fun game we can play to count down to winning the league: which teams can no longer mathematically finish above us? So far it's: Coventry, Birmingham, Sheffield Wednesday, Wycombe. Brentford (H) WON Luton Town (H) WON Sheffield Wednesday (A) Nottingham Forest (A) Blackburn Rovers (H) So we only need four points from the next three now to stay on target, but there's every chance of seven or nine the way we're playing. Swansea got another outrageous last-minute penalty, and Middlesbrough had a perfectly good goal disallowed... Swansea aren't playing well enough to keep pace from what I've seen. I've chopped the table down to the top six now. Nobody outside the top four is going to catch us, but I think Barnsley and Reading are still in with a shout of getting in the top two - especially Barnsley on current form. Norwich 35 76 2.17 Watford 35 66 1.89 --------------------------------------------------------------------- Swansea 33 65 1.97 Brentford 34 63 1.85 Reading 35 60 1.71 Barnsley 34 57 1.68 Can anyone else see a scenario where Farke cements his mate Valerien Ismael's place in the PL by rolling over at Oakwell on the last day? If Barnsley win their game in hand they'll only be six points off second. Stranger things have happened... 🙂 Swansea play four games before the international break, whereas us, Watford and Brentford only play three. They're away to Blackburn in midweek (tricky), then away to Luton next Saturday (with Luton having a midweek break), then away to Bournemouth the following midweek (very tough), and then at home to a resurgent Cardiff in the derby in two weeks (eek!). If they win all four of those games, they'll almost certainly go up in second. Quick look at the odds suggests this is massively unlikely: they're 15/8 to win at Blackburn and 13/10 to win at Luton. No odds for the second two matches yet, but estimating 2/1 to win at Bournemouth and 13/10 to win at home to Cardiff (both very stingy estimates) and the chances of them winning those four matches are around 45/1. By contrast, estimated odds for us winning our next three games are around 3/1. Watford's next game is away to Cardiff, Brentford's away to Blackburn... this is all a very roundabout way of saying we are the champions. Get in there! 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Feedthewolf 4,844 Posted March 6, 2021 Oh, and I almost forgot. New list of teams who can no longer mathematically finish above us: Wycombe, Sheffield Wednesday, Rotherham, Birmingham, Coventry, Derby, Huddersfield, Forest. 2 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
CANARYKING 634 Posted March 6, 2021 16 minutes ago, Feedthewolf said: Oh, and I almost forgot. New list of teams who can no longer mathematically finish above us: Wycombe, Sheffield Wednesday, Rotherham, Birmingham, Coventry, Derby, Huddersfield, Forest. and Ip5wich 2 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Crabbycanary3 994 Posted March 6, 2021 4 minutes ago, CANARYKING said: and Ip5wich You could have bumped this for the last 2 and a half years tbf (and for many more to come)! 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Feedthewolf 4,844 Posted March 9, 2021 Every little helps... Norwich 35 76 2.17 Next three: Sheffield W (a), Forest (a), Blackburn (h)Watford 35 66 1.89 Next three: Cardiff (a), Rotherham (a), Birmingham (h)---------------------------------------------------------------------Swansea 34 66 1.94 Next three: Luton (a), Bournemouth (a), Cardiff (h)Brentford 34 63 1.85 Next three: Blackburn (a), Derby (a), Forest (h)Reading 35 60 1.71 Next three: Forest (a), Birmingham (a), QPR (h)Barnsley 34 57 1.68 Next three: Derby (h), Bournemouth (a), Wycombe (a) So the top six all play two away games in their next three! Barnsley are playing tomorrow, so they're the only team with four games left before the international break (they're at home to Sheffield W on Saturday week). I reckon Swansea have the toughest three fixtures there, and they've not had a break in ages either... they looked very tired and leggy tonight, and on Saturday they face a tricky game at Luton who have had a week off to recover. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Indy 3,283 Posted March 9, 2021 (edited) FTW this week could well be the pivotal time, all three chasing teams have at least one tough away game, Cardiff for Watford, Blackburn for Brentford and Bournemouth for Swansea. If by chance we can win the next two we could end up 13 points clear with 9 games to go! Edited March 9, 2021 by Indy 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Crafty Canary 495 Posted March 9, 2021 If Watford and Swansea average 2 points per game for all their remaining games then Watford finish with 88 points and Swansea will finish with 90 points. So 5 more wins would put us up. 🙂🙂🙂 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
PurpleCanary 5,554 Posted March 9, 2021 (edited) Looking a bit further ahead I see that Scotland (Hanley and McLean?) and Greece (Giannoulis?) both.have World Cup qualifiers and Finland (Pukki) have a friendly on the Wednesday two days before we play Preston. I don’t know how the bubbles and the quarantines work. Can anyone enlighten me? Perhaps at least Finland can be persuaded to let Pukki go after their WC qualifier on the Sunday before. Edited March 9, 2021 by PurpleCanary Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Evil Monkey 52 Posted March 10, 2021 12 hours ago, Feedthewolf said: Every little helps... Norwich 35 76 2.17 Next three: Sheffield W (a), Forest (a), Blackburn (h)Watford 35 66 1.89 Next three: Cardiff (a), Rotherham (a), Birmingham (h)---------------------------------------------------------------------Swansea 34 66 1.94 Next three: Luton (a), Bournemouth (a), Cardiff (h)Brentford 34 63 1.85 Next three: Blackburn (a), Derby (a), Forest (h)Reading 35 60 1.71 Next three: Forest (a), Birmingham (a), QPR (h)Barnsley 34 57 1.68 Next three: Derby (h), Bournemouth (a), Wycombe (a) So the top six all play two away games in their next three! Barnsley are playing tomorrow, so they're the only team with four games left before the international break (they're at home to Sheffield W on Saturday week). I reckon Swansea have the toughest three fixtures there, and they've not had a break in ages either... they looked very tired and leggy tonight, and on Saturday they face a tricky game at Luton who have had a week off to recover. See, this is why I absolutely love the Championship as a competition. You look at those fixtures and ours, in particular, look absolutely winnable on paper. But relegation scrappers like Sheff Weds for us, Derby for Brentford, Brum for Watford... Those fixtures are always banana skins in this league. And of course there's the play-off challengers like Bournemouth and Cardiff who will all be tricky for our opponents... Not to even mention the mid table teams who are feisty and relaxed and maybe even have one eye on a late playoff push... It all looks easy to predict on paper, but this league is just too much fun to make it certain... 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Feedthewolf 4,844 Posted March 10, 2021 13 minutes ago, Evil Monkey said: See, this is why I absolutely love the Championship as a competition. You look at those fixtures and ours, in particular, look absolutely winnable on paper. But relegation scrappers like Sheff Weds for us, Derby for Brentford, Brum for Watford... Those fixtures are always banana skins in this league. And of course there's the play-off challengers like Bournemouth and Cardiff who will all be tricky for our opponents... Not to even mention the mid table teams who are feisty and relaxed and maybe even have one eye on a late playoff push... It all looks easy to predict on paper, but this league is just too much fun to make it certain... You're back!!! 🙂 🙂 🙂 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Evil Monkey 52 Posted March 10, 2021 1 hour ago, Feedthewolf said: You're back!!! 🙂 🙂 🙂 I've always been lurking 😂 Mostly I have to say particularly enjoying these Next 5 Games posts, been really good to chunk up the season like this and analyse a bit at a time. Makes it a bit less anxiety-inducing! 2 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Graham Paddons Beard 2,424 Posted March 10, 2021 (edited) 11 hours ago, PurpleCanary said: Looking a bit further ahead I see that Scotland (Hanley and McLean?) and Greece (Giannoulis?) both.have World Cup qualifiers and Finland (Pukki) have a friendly on the Wednesday two days before we play Preston. I don’t know how the bubbles and the quarantines work. Can anyone enlighten me? Perhaps at least Finland can be persuaded to let Pukki go after their WC qualifier on the Sunday before. This is potentially bad news ! We need the geeks on this !! What are the implications ? Edited March 10, 2021 by Graham Paddons Beard Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Feedthewolf 4,844 Posted March 10, 2021 30 minutes ago, Evil Monkey said: I've always been lurking 😂 Mostly I have to say particularly enjoying these Next 5 Games posts, been really good to chunk up the season like this and analyse a bit at a time. Makes it a bit less anxiety-inducing! Hang around, old boy. It's a better place with you here. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
PurpleCanary 5,554 Posted March 10, 2021 39 minutes ago, Graham Paddons Beard said: This is potentially bad news ! We need the geeks on this !! What are the implications ? I like the obviously correct implication that you and I are therefore not geeks...🤓 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
hogesar 9,618 Posted March 10, 2021 23 minutes ago, PurpleCanary said: I like the obviously correct implication that you and I are therefore not geeks...🤓 You're kidding, right? 😉 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Graham Paddons Beard 2,424 Posted March 10, 2021 (edited) 28 minutes ago, PurpleCanary said: I like the obviously correct implication that you and I are therefore not geeks...🤓 Can only speak for oneself Purple . If you can answer the potentially serious issue of losing top players due to international call ups (dates/ times / probability / EFL rules / world time zones etc ) I will happily bestow “honorary geek” status upon you forthwith. 🤴 Edited March 10, 2021 by Graham Paddons Beard 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
AJ 1,218 Posted March 10, 2021 13 hours ago, PurpleCanary said: Looking a bit further ahead I see that Scotland (Hanley and McLean?) and Greece (Giannoulis?) both.have World Cup qualifiers and Finland (Pukki) have a friendly on the Wednesday two days before we play Preston. I don’t know how the bubbles and the quarantines work. Can anyone enlighten me? Perhaps at least Finland can be persuaded to let Pukki go after their WC qualifier on the Sunday before. Scotland play at home, so would imagine Hanley and McLean will be okay for that (if picked) to get back in time for our game, it would give them a days rest so it is plausible. I'm not sure Norwich would be happy to let Pukki go (or if Pukki himself would want to go) over playing for us on the Friday. It is possible that all 3 would pull out if picked to concentrate on our game, although I know Hanley is super keen to get back into the Scotland squad. It is a shame our game isn't on the Saturday, 2 days rest would be okay given it would be no different to playing Weds/Sat in the league aside of the travelling Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
PurpleCanary 5,554 Posted March 10, 2021 9 hours ago, Graham Paddons Beard said: Can only speak for oneself Purple . If you can answer the potentially serious issue of losing top players due to international call ups (dates/ times / probability / EFL rules / world time zones etc ) I will happily bestow “honorary geek” status upon you forthwith. 🤴 I can't possibly concentrate on that. I am postively devastated to find that hogesar is casting doubt on the genuineness of my image of cool-dude hipster.😎 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
dylanisabaddog 4,867 Posted March 10, 2021 32 minutes ago, PurpleCanary said: I can't possibly concentrate on that. I am postively devastated to find that hogesar is casting doubt on the genuineness of my image of cool-dude hipster.😎 Anyone born after 1960 will have to message Purple to find out what a cool dude hipster is. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Feedthewolf 4,844 Posted March 10, 2021 Because I'm that guy... Norwich 35 76 2.17 Next three: Sheffield W (a), Forest (a), Blackburn (h)Watford 35 66 1.89 Next three: Cardiff (a), Rotherham (a), Birmingham (h)---------------------------------------------------------------------Swansea 34 66 1.94 Next three: Luton (a), Bournemouth (a), Cardiff (h)Brentford 34 63 1.85 Next three: Blackburn (a), Derby (a), Forest (h)Reading 35 60 1.71 Next three: Forest (a), Birmingham (a), QPR (h)Barnsley 35 58 1.66 Next three: Bournemouth (a), Wycombe (a), Sheffield W (h) Absolutely love the symmetry here... away, away, home. Incidentally, if you fancy a cheeky acca on the five teams below us all winning, it's north of 100/1... tempted? With William Hill's bet boost, it's 135/1. I've had a quid. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
