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Feedthewolf

The *LAST* five...

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3 hours ago, ron obvious said:

Why Quintilla? His crossing & dead ball skills are excellent, but I'm not at all sure about his defending. And he didn't look particularly quick.

I think you're doing Zimbo & Hanley a disservice too. Neither were fit for more than a few games last season & CB is a position where you need time to gain partnerships. In my opinion it was mainly the CB situation that scuppered us last year. I'm not prone to revenge, but I do occasionally fantasise about the nasty things that might befall Mr. Haller ...

He's got La Liga experience and looked very strong to me from the little I've seen so far. I appreciate there's every chance he might not be here next season, or indeed for the rest of this season.

Take your point about Hanley and Zimbo, although even if we managed to sign Gibson and keep those two I still think we'd need to be signing starters at CB rather than backup for those three.

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Well then.

Six from six so far, so even if we were to lose at Watford we could afford a draw in one of the two home games to stay on target. Since my original post, Cantwell has now started a match and looked outstanding, Dowell has had a couple of impressive cameos from the bench, Rupp is back in the matchday squad, and we should have Krul, Quintilla, Gibson and Placheta available for selection for our next game. Assuming Max isn't injured (and Farke implied he was okay), our 20-man squad for Watford could be:

Krul, McGovern
Aarons, Zimmermann, Gibson, Hanley, Sorensen, Quintilla
Tettey, Skipp, Rupp, McLean, Vrancic, Buendia, Cantwell, Stiepermann, Dowell, Placheta
Pukki, Hugill

Good luck picking an XI out of that lot - and that's leaving out Josh Martin, Andrew Omobamidele and Tyrese Omotoye!

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27 minutes ago, Feedthewolf said:

Well then.

Six from six so far, so even if we were to lose at Watford we could afford a draw in one of the two home games to stay on target. Since my original post, Cantwell has now started a match and looked outstanding, Dowell has had a couple of impressive cameos from the bench, Rupp is back in the matchday squad, and we should have Krul, Quintilla, Gibson and Placheta available for selection for our next game. Assuming Max isn't injured (and Farke implied he was okay), our 20-man squad for Watford could be:

Krul, McGovern
Aarons, Zimmermann, Gibson, Hanley, Sorensen, Quintilla
Tettey, Skipp, Rupp, McLean, Vrancic, Buendia, Cantwell, Stiepermann, Dowell, Placheta
Pukki, Hugill

Good luck picking an XI out of that lot - and that's leaving out Josh Martin, Andrew Omobamidele and Tyrese Omotoye!

I think once players are up to fitness our best XI is: 

------------------------------Krul---------------------------------------

--Aarons-----Hanley--------Gibson-----Quintilla-------

--------------------Skipp----------Rupp----------------------------

--Buendia-------------Dowell------------Cantwell----------

-----------------------------Pukki---------------------------------------

Maybe harsh on Zimm, Sorenson, McLean and Vrancic from today's line up, but Gibson, Quintilla, Rupp and Dowell would still shade it for me in each of those respective positions. Dowell has looked very impressive against Reading and a really good fit with Buendia / Cantwell. Sexy football.

And we're still yet to really see what Sorenson can offer from a central position, he looks a class player! Not to mention Hernandez, Mumba, Idah and Placheta all showing plenty of positive signs so far this season. 

Its good that Farke is finally being forced into some selection dilemmas...

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1 hour ago, Feedthewolf said:

Well then.

Six from six so far, so even if we were to lose at Watford we could afford a draw in one of the two home games to stay on target. Since my original post, Cantwell has now started a match and looked outstanding, Dowell has had a couple of impressive cameos from the bench, Rupp is back in the matchday squad, and we should have Krul, Quintilla, Gibson and Placheta available for selection for our next game. Assuming Max isn't injured (and Farke implied he was okay), our 20-man squad for Watford could be:

Krul, McGovern
Aarons, Zimmermann, Gibson, Hanley, Sorensen, Quintilla
Tettey, Skipp, Rupp, McLean, Vrancic, Buendia, Cantwell, Stiepermann, Dowell, Placheta
Pukki, Hugill

Good luck picking an XI out of that lot - and that's leaving out Josh Martin, Andrew Omobamidele and Tyrese Omotoye!

The weirdest bit in that which demonstrates the quality of the squad is that Martin doesn't get in the 20.

Been really impressed with him stepping up and he's not let us down but just shows the strength. 

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1 hour ago, Hank shoots Skyler said:

I think once players are up to fitness our best XI is: 

------------------------------Krul---------------------------------------

--Aarons-----Hanley--------Gibson-----Quintilla-------

--------------------Skipp----------Rupp----------------------------

--Buendia-------------Dowell------------Cantwell----------

-----------------------------Pukki---------------------------------------

Maybe harsh on Zimm, Sorenson, McLean and Vrancic from today's line up, but Gibson, Quintilla, Rupp and Dowell would still shade it for me in each of those respective positions. Dowell has looked very impressive against Reading and a really good fit with Buendia / Cantwell. Sexy football.

And we're still yet to really see what Sorenson can offer from a central position, he looks a class player! Not to mention Hernandez, Mumba, Idah and Placheta all showing plenty of positive signs so far this season. 

Its good that Farke is finally being forced into some selection dilemmas...

Sorenson keeps his place, but otherwise this. 

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1 hour ago, Fuzzar said:

Sorenson keeps his place, but otherwise this. 

Yep Sorenson probably deserved a bit more of a juftification in my post there as he has exceeded expectations in every way. But he's simply not playing in his natural position and at times looks pretty uncomfortable out there IMO.  

Particularly when it comes to getting forwards - which is also Quintilla's area of strength. On his return to LB his overlaps wide will help to open things in the centre for Cantwell / Buendia - not to mention his crossing when he does get the ball! 

Although I don't think he's done badly defensively at all, the fact teams have targetted that side in recent weeks is also rather telling. 

That said, I wouldn't be disappointed to see Sorenson keep his place, but I'd rather see him start to edge his way into the team in his preferred position. I wouldn't be surprised to see him immediately slotting in as the 3rd choice CM (after Skipp and Rupp) on Quintilla's return. Which should give him the playing time to really start showing us what he can do!

Edited by Hank shoots Skyler
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On 12/12/2020 at 19:58, Feedthewolf said:

Massive five games coming up. If we can keep up two points a game (three wins, a draw and a defeat) then we're almost certain to be in the top two:

Reading (away)
Cardiff (home)
Watford (away)
QPR (home)
Barnsley (home)

After the Barnsley game there's a two-week break from the league, and by the time we resume on January 16th we should have the vast majority of our squad back:

Cantwell, McLean and Hugill already back
Dowell on the bench so nearly back to full fitness
Krul and Rupp back within the next week
Gibson and Placheta back by Boxing Day
Idah and Mumba back by New Year

By my estimation, that leaves only Byram, Hernandez and Quintilla unaccounted for. If Quintilla isn't coming back one assumes we'll recall McCallum, and Onel and Byram will be like new signings if they do get fit again. I'm sure we'll pick up one or two more knocks, but our squad for the second half of the season looks remarkably strong even without any reinforcements (youth backup options in brackets):

GK: Krul, McGovern, Barden (McCracken)
DF: Mumba, Byram, Quintilla/McCallum, Gibson, Zimmermann, Hanley, Aarons (Omobamidele, Famewo)
DM: Skipp, Rupp, Tettey, Sorensen, Vrancic (McAlear)
AM: Buendia, Cantwell, Placheta, McLean, Hernandez, Martin, Dowell, Stiepermann (Hondermarck)
FW: Pukki, Hugill, Idah (Omotoye)

So there we have it: ten points from the five games mentioned in the OP. Still feels like we've got a couple more gears to click into, and the injury situation looks okay apart from the need for goalkeeping cover. Another two weeks off, with presumably a heavily rotated squad for the FA Cup match, and then we're looking for another ten from the next five. Some bloody hard games coming up, too:

Cardiff (a)
Bristol City (h)
Millwall (a)
Middlesbrough (h)
Swansea (a)

We do tend to play better away from home, but ten points from those five is still a very big ask. Should we beat Coventry next weekend, the Millwall game will be rescheduled and Stoke at home would become the fifth match. Assuming we don't pick up any more injuries in the next fortnight, we should have a relatively healthy squad to choose from, with only McGovern, Byram, Mumba, Hernandez and Idah still missing (and all bar McGovern and Byram likely to be back by the end of this next block of five games).

If we can somehow get through these next five unbeaten, we'll be in an incredibly strong position. Massive ask, but we've not been outplayed in any games this season with the exception of Luton away at the worst of our injury crisis. It's there for the taking.

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I like the way you're looking at batches of 5 games FTW. It is a decent  amount of games and more interesting than that 'one game at a time'  boring saying. I would take 3 wins and 2 draws. I cannot see us losing because no-one team is better than us in this set of five. And hopefully we have Onel back plus Adam as an option by then.

Interesting too because we will know what is happening in the transfer window during this set of matches. Who knows, our group might even get stronger!

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The only one out of that lot I’d worry about is Swansea away. Heart says 4 wins and a draw at Swansea, head says a dropped point v Boro and a narrow loss at Swansea giving us 10 points again. 

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Got to say that I’m not massively confident of getting through those unscathed. I’ve got 8 points in my mind from those matches 

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Don’t see why we can’t go on our next winning spree again - 15 out of 15 for me, with Brentford supporters thinking we’re still pretenders to their crown 😉

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14 minutes ago, Alex Moss said:

Don’t see why we can’t go on our next winning spree again - 15 out of 15 for me, with Brentford supporters thinking we’re still pretenders to their crown 😉

I'm thinking Brentford might get snagged up with fixtures Alex. In a semi final already and a match postponed today. Good team but they will be tested. 

Reading are coming back into the picture now João is back from injury.

Edited by sonyc
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Just now, sonyc said:

I'm thinking Brentford might get snagged up with fixtures Alex. In a semi final already and a match postponed today. Good team but they will be tested. 

Reading are coming back into the picture now João is back from injury.

I was thinking the same thing, Sony. I’m always interested to read other clubs message boards to get a broader picture of things, and either Brentford supporters have not considered the same thought as yourself, or they simply don’t want to. It’s a hectic enough schedule as it is, and unless they actually win the cup then another game or two won’t do them any favours. At this stage they will have to play more and more of their key players I would have thought. That’s why I’ll always take points on the board over games in hand!

As for Reading, I must admit I thought they’d slip away earlier this season but credit where credits due, they don’t look like they’ll slip away anytime soon, and agreed, they have some tidy players there themselves. Think they play Brentford very soon which could be handy.

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6 minutes ago, sonyc said:

I'm thinking Brentford might get snagged up with fixtures Alex. In a semi final already and a match postponed today. Good team but they will be tested. 

Reading are coming back into the picture now João is back from injury.

Reading? Schmeading.

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3 minutes ago, Alex Moss said:

As for Reading, I must admit I thought they’d slip away earlier this season but credit where credits due, they don’t look like they’ll slip away anytime soon, and agreed, they have some tidy players there themselves. Think they play Brentford very soon which could be handy.

I have to stick with Reading whatever they do (!) if only because they were one of the two teams I picked (with Swansea) pre- season for Diane's competition to take the top two slots. I had us 4th I think.

They started so well. But thought they were average when we played them and yet João is one of those powerful big units and he scored again today just coming back. We will see.

I'm still nervous about us but to be where we are at this stage is really brilliant. I'd have happily taken this pre season of course.

The Championship I find is much more fun as a competition just because it feels somehow more 'real'. Yet, I always want us to get into the PL. If I could pick two it would be us and Brentford though.

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Its officially the half way stage. We’ve played everyone once and really does go to show how good our achievement of being top at this stage has been.

From the top half of the table we have played 8 away, 3 home. We have also played 13th and 14th away. I’m not sure how the other promotion pack fair but definitely puts us in a great position. 

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It’s worth noting that during this run of games -

Reading v Brentford 

Swansea v Brentford 

Reading v Bournemouth 

Barnsley also play two of the top six and should give them a good game, if we do drop a few points we could find that we’re still top.

 

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On 13/12/2020 at 10:41, Move Klose said:

3 wins from our next 5 will keep us on track for averaging 2 points a game, currently 2.05.

46 points from 23 games. I'd take that for sure.

Barring in mind in those 5 games we should have Krul, Gibson, Placheta, Dowell, Mclean, Cantwell & Hugill all back and fully fit.

3 wins and a draw it was then. 10 points from 5 games is a very good return. Think we all wouldve taken that. Keep up that run of 2 points a game and you go up.

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On 02/01/2021 at 20:25, Feedthewolf said:

So there we have it: ten points from the five games mentioned in the OP. Still feels like we've got a couple more gears to click into, and the injury situation looks okay apart from the need for goalkeeping cover. Another two weeks off, with presumably a heavily rotated squad for the FA Cup match, and then we're looking for another ten from the next five. Some bloody hard games coming up, too:

Cardiff (a)
Bristol City (h)
Millwall (a)
Middlesbrough (h)
Swansea (a)

We do tend to play better away from home, but ten points from those five is still a very big ask. Should we beat Coventry next weekend, the Millwall game will be rescheduled and Stoke at home would become the fifth match. Assuming we don't pick up any more injuries in the next fortnight, we should have a relatively healthy squad to choose from, with only McGovern, Byram, Mumba, Hernandez and Idah still missing (and all bar McGovern and Byram likely to be back by the end of this next block of five games).

If we can somehow get through these next five unbeaten, we'll be in an incredibly strong position. Massive ask, but we've not been outplayed in any games this season with the exception of Luton away at the worst of our injury crisis. It's there for the taking.

So, given our cup match next week, the next five league matches are:

Cardiff (a) WON
Bristol City (h)
Middlesbrough (h)
Millwall (a)
Swansea (a)

So to keep up the promotion pace, we need seven from the next four. Having lost away to both Bournemouth and Watford, it'd be really handy to at least take a draw at Swansea; a win in Wales and we'd be laughing. We'll probably draw one of the home games, and there's always the chance of one of those Derby-style fluke results. This is probably the hardest run of fixtures we have left this season; the bottom line, though, is getting seven from the next four will leave us with 57 from 28, which will comfortably be enough to be in the top two.

Then, our next five look a lot easier on paper:

Stoke (h)
Coventry (a)
Rotherham (h)
Birmingham (a)
Wycombe (a)

By the time we come away from Adams Park, we could be in an extremely commanding position. It's looking very, very good.

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8 hours ago, Feedthewolf said:

So, given our cup match next week, the next five league matches are:

Cardiff (a) WON
Bristol City (h)
Middlesbrough (h)
Millwall (a)
Swansea (a)

So to keep up the promotion pace, we need seven from the next four. Having lost away to both Bournemouth and Watford, it'd be really handy to at least take a draw at Swansea; a win in Wales and we'd be laughing. We'll probably draw one of the home games, and there's always the chance of one of those Derby-style fluke results. This is probably the hardest run of fixtures we have left this season; the bottom line, though, is getting seven from the next four will leave us with 57 from 28, which will comfortably be enough to be in the top two.

Then, our next five look a lot easier on paper:

Stoke (h)
Coventry (a)
Rotherham (h)
Birmingham (a)
Wycombe (a)

By the time we come away from Adams Park, we could be in an extremely commanding position. It's looking very, very good.

Was going to write out a post but realised that you've summed up everything I needed to say 😂 I'll post it anyway.

The next 5 games look really tricky. Millwall away is obviously one we should be more than able to get 3 points out of, but Bristol City, Middlesbrough, Swansea and Stoke are all tough opponents. I agree that 7 points and not losing to Swansea would not be a bad return at all, if we can get 8 or more that would be fantastic.

You never know what can happen in this league, and what situation each individual club will find themselves in by the time we play them, but Coventry, Rotherham, Birmingham and Wycombe really needs to be a minimum of 10 points, preferably 12 obviously.

If we come out of those next 9 fixtures with 18 points I'll be pretty happy. 20 plus and it's hard to envisage us missing out on a top 2 place with just over a dozen games to go.

But anyway, I need to try and stop getting ahead of myself! A lot of football to be played between now and Wycombe away.

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Every game is a tough one, but we are resilient and despite setbacks we still pick up points. The first half was excellent yesterday and Cardiff could not handle us, but it could have been so different if Wilson had scored in those first few seconds, so nothing is certain.

What does stand out is that we have a club ethos and depth in the squad squad that can cope with setbacks.  The Welsh commentators were drooling over how well run our club is compared to theirs - that despite injuries our club is set up so that anyone that comes into the team knows exactly what to do and fits in with no disruption to the way the team plays.

Much to admire, but a long way to go. Getting that extra goal to kill off teams would be a nice addition to the way we play - we get the chances to do it nearly every game - so room for improvement still!

 

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Geeky statistical update time!

Cardiff (a) WON
Bristol City (h) WON
Middlesbrough (h)
Millwall (a)
Swansea (a)

To stay on track, we now need just four points from the next nine. As things stand, the top of the table looks like this:

Team            Played              Points             PPG
Norwich       25                      53                    2.12
Swansea      24                      46                    1.92
Brentford     23                      44                     1.91
Watford        24                      43                    1.79
Reading        24                      43                    1.79
B'mouth       25                       42                    1.68

By the time we kick off against Middlesbrough, all the teams below us will have played at least once more. Assuming Swansea v Brentford and Reading v Bournemouth are draws, and the top-six games win all the other games, here's the worst-case scenario of how the table could look on the morning of the Boro game:

Team            Played              Points             PPG
Norwich       25                      53                    2.12
Watford        26                      49                    1.88
Swansea      25                      47                    1.88
Reading        26                      47                    1.81
Brentford     24                      45                     1.89
B'mouth       26                       43                    1.65

If Swansea were to beat Brentford they could also be on 49 points (and the same for Reading if they beat Bournemouth), meaning we'd only be four points ahead of third place. This, however, is a worst-case scenario, and you'd get relatively long odds on Watford winning both their away games and Reading winning theirs too. Beat Middlesbrough, though, and we'd still have our seven-point cushion.

Basically, if we can get four points from our next two matches (Boro and Millwall), we could even afford to lose at Swansea and still have a decent cushion. We're in such a strong position that we could even lose our next three matches and the likelihood is that we'd still be in the top two!

Following the Swansea game, the next run of fixtures look eminently winnable; 10 points should definitely be achievable (probably more).

Stoke (h)
Coventry (a)
Rotherham (h)
Birmingham (a)
Wycombe (a)

I'm going to float a totally hypothetical, but not totally unthinkable, scenario now: let's just suppose that we beat Boro and Millwall, before narrowly losing to Swansea. We then go on to win all five of the fixtures listed above.

That would leave us on 74 points from 33 matches, and would put us in a position where we'd likely only need to win six of our last 13 games to guarantee ourselves promotion.

I know, I'm a saddo.

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10 minutes ago, Feedthewolf said:

Geeky statistical update time!

Cardiff (a) WON
Bristol City (h) WON
Middlesbrough (h)
Millwall (a)
Swansea (a)

To stay on track, we now need just four points from the next nine. As things stand, the top of the table looks like this:

Team            Played              Points             PPG
Norwich       25                      53                    2.12
Swansea      24                      46                    1.92
Brentford     23                      44                     1.91
Watford        24                      43                    1.79
Reading        24                      43                    1.79
B'mouth       25                       42                    1.68

By the time we kick off against Middlesbrough, all the teams below us will have played at least once more. Assuming Swansea v Brentford and Reading v Bournemouth are draws, and the top-six games win all the other games, here's the worst-case scenario of how the table could look on the morning of the Boro game:

Team            Played              Points             PPG
Norwich       25                      53                    2.12
Watford        26                      49                    1.88
Swansea      25                      47                    1.88
Reading        26                      47                    1.81
Brentford     24                      45                     1.89
B'mouth       26                       43                    1.65

If Swansea were to beat Brentford they could also be on 49 points (and the same for Reading if they beat Bournemouth), meaning we'd only be four points ahead of third place. This, however, is a worst-case scenario, and you'd get relatively long odds on Watford winning both their away games and Reading winning theirs too. Beat Middlesbrough, though, and we'd still have our seven-point cushion.

Basically, if we can get four points from our next two matches (Boro and Millwall), we could even afford to lose at Swansea and still have a decent cushion. We're in such a strong position that we could even lose our next three matches and the likelihood is that we'd still be in the top two!

Following the Swansea game, the next run of fixtures look eminently winnable; 10 points should definitely be achievable (probably more).

Stoke (h)
Coventry (a)
Rotherham (h)
Birmingham (a)
Wycombe (a)

I'm going to float a totally hypothetical, but not totally unthinkable, scenario now: let's just suppose that we beat Boro and Millwall, before narrowly losing to Swansea. We then go on to win all five of the fixtures listed above.

That would leave us on 74 points from 33 matches, and would put us in a position where we'd likely only need to win six of our last 13 games to guarantee ourselves promotion.

I know, I'm a saddo.

Actually quite a good analysis.

Basically keep on winning and we'll be promoted, but as we all know, there's bound to be a bump in the road - after all we're Norwich!

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I've mentioned elsewhere that to not get promoted, at least two clubs below us have to win 3 more games than us (this is because they all have to play each other).  Given the evidence of tonight's match, its looking more and more unlikely that we could blow up that badly.  And all after having injuries & unavailability of players running into double figures for much of the season so far.  Blimey we're good.

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Cardiff (a) WON
Bristol City (h) WON
Middlesbrough (h) DREW
Millwall (a)
Swansea (a)

Three points from the next two and we're still on target. Four points would be great; six would be absolutely massive.

Team            Played              Points             PPG
Norwich       26                      54                    2.08
Swansea      26                      50                    1.92
Brentford     25                      48                     1.92
Watford        26                      47                    1.81
Reading        26                      47                    1.81
B'mouth       26                       42                    1.62

A bit of a setback today, plus Emi will be a big miss in the next two. Having Kenny back will be a big plus, though. Bournemouth have really fallen away, but all of the top five have 10 points from their last four games; it's going to be a really epic end to the season I reckon.

Remember that our next five after Swansea are against Stoke, Coventry, Rotherham, Birmingham and Wycombe, so every chance of going on another good run even if we lose to Swansea.

 

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On 30/01/2021 at 19:07, Feedthewolf said:

Cardiff (a) WON
Bristol City (h) WON
Middlesbrough (h) DREW
Millwall (a)
Swansea (a)

Three points from the next two and we're still on target. Four points would be great; six would be absolutely massive.

Team            Played              Points             PPG
Norwich       26                      54                    2.08
Swansea      26                      50                    1.92
Brentford     25                      48                     1.92
Watford        26                      47                    1.81
Reading        26                      47                    1.81
B'mouth       26                       42                    1.62

A bit of a setback today, plus Emi will be a big miss in the next two. Having Kenny back will be a big plus, though. Bournemouth have really fallen away, but all of the top five have 10 points from their last four games; it's going to be a really epic end to the season I reckon.

Remember that our next five after Swansea are against Stoke, Coventry, Rotherham, Birmingham and Wycombe, so every chance of going on another good run even if we lose to Swansea.

 

Cardiff (a) WON
Bristol City (h) WON
Middlesbrough (h) DREW
Millwall (a) DREW
Swansea (a) LOST

So only eight from our last five matches. From our previous five, we managed ten points (promotion form). So we've got 18 points from our last 10 games; not ideal, but not a crisis. Who's up next?

Stoke, Coventry, Rotherham, Birmingham, Wycombe. Home and away isn't really a factor; in fact, this is the first time since the inception of league football in 1888 that there have been more away wins than home wins. Emi's back. Who really wants to play against us right now? Come on, folks. Believe in your team.

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Real opportunity to kick on here with those run of games. Yes, the last 3 matches have been disappointing but take 13-15 points from the next 5 and we’ll be right back on track again, and with plenty of momentum going into the 6th game of that run against Brentford.

13 points is the minimum I expect though. In a roundabout sort of way I actually think this defeat tonight and the subsequent 8 days off to reflect could really give us the kick up the **** we need.

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Time to go with Idah as main striker and Pukki as number 10 - different tactic strategy with Idah hold up play allowing us to get knock ons for Pukki to get in much quicker or just get the team higher up the pitch quicker with more intensity. We have become predictable with our slow build up play and can’t find any spaces for Pukki to be effective. His game of playing on the shoulder of the last man and running in behind won’t work when we are playing such patient build up play and the majority of our opponents are going to sit deep and hit us on the counter 

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