New Tory Leader

[TheGunnShow 5,937]

9 minutes ago, Herman said:

Yes, it's sad but there are a hell of a lot of us in the same boat. Labour or Tories in my area, but the Tories are miles ahead so it'll need a lot of people like me to even budge the numbers.

Yeah, Bolton West used to be a bellweather, but now it's the safest Tory seat in Greater Manchester, or the second after Altrincham.

[Herman 9,754]

Just had a look. All very close for years except the last one. Shocking really why they are popular but there you go.Equally shocking how unpopular Labour were under the last leader. A lot of damage needs to be repaired.🤨

[horsefly 4,296]

1 minute ago, Herman said:

Just had a look. All very close for years except the last one. Shocking really why they are popular but there you go.Equally shocking how unpopular Labour were under the last leader. A lot of damage needs to be repaired.🤨

It's pretty much a repeat of the 1980s. Labour infiltrated by the far left elect a leader who completely alienates the voters it needs most to win over (only this time the infiltrators, Momentum, are far posher than Militant Tendency). In the meantime the people Labour is supposed to represent found themselves royally screwed over, while the far left congratulated themselves on their ideological purity. As a result Thatcher, among other things, was able to sell off vast quantities of the social housing that we are now so desperate for but shall never recover, and introduce privatisation into key areas of the NHS. Corbyn was a godsend for Johnson, just as Foot was for Thatcher. The fact that Corbyn also made the utterly insane decision to allow Johnson a general election when he had absolutely no need to do so has left Labour with a mountain to climb.

I get the feeling Starmer is going to find himself playing Kinnock's role of reconnecting Labour to the interests of natural Labour voters and away from the far left ideologues dominating much of the constituency party membership. Hopefully the transition of Labour back to the centre-left ground on which it has won in the past will be quicker this time round. Whatever one thinks of Thatcher there can we no doubt she was an exceptionally shrewd political operator, whereas Johnson is demonstrably bereft of the intelligence or political will that Thatcher displayed. If Labour get this right we could see a very rapid change in public support as the sh*it storm that currently envelops the country worsens through the coming months, and Johnson's appalling incompetence, indifference, and dishonesty become increasing exposed. That scenario, of course, rests on a very big IF. The current evidence suggests that Johnson is able to get away with quite catastrophic levels of incompetence and failure, not to mention astounding levels of corruption and unethical behaviour; thus it is not enough for Labour to think the public will at some point see through his fraudulent reign.  The party needs to unite behind a centre-left agenda that convinces the public that they can trust them to act in their best interests, and does not exist solely to serve the interests of far-left party members. I can't say I'm massively hopeful that the far-left will tuck away their ideological yearnings for the sake of the interests of the working population they claim to support. However, at the time I thought Kinnock's task of retrieving Labour for the ordinary working person was virtually impossible, and ulimately it lead to 13 years of Labour government. And let me conclude by reminding those Labour Party members critical of Blair and Brown that they helped transform the lot of huge numbers of ordinary working people by investing record levels of money into education, health and the transition out of poverty. Those people, indeed, who give the Labour Party its very raison d'etre.

[sonyc 5,510]

1 hour ago, horsefly said:

I get the feeling Starmer is going to find himself playing Kinnock's role of reconnecting Labour to the interests of natural Labour voters and away from the far left ideologues dominating much of the constituency party membership. Hopefully the transition of Labour back to the centre-left ground on which it has won in the past will be quicker this time round. Whatever one thinks of Thatcher there can we no doubt she was an exceptionally shrewd political operator, whereas Johnson is demonstrably bereft of the intelligence or political will that Thatcher displayed. If Labour get this right we could see a very rapid change in public support as the sh*it storm that currently envelops the country worsens through the coming months, and Johnson's appalling incompetence, indifference, and dishonesty become increasing exposed.

I've just taken a section of your long and thoughtful post Horsefly in order to respond. I too sense that Starmer might play a Kinnock role (which means electoral defeat next time for him - I guess a possible leadership change thereafter. Burnham is playing the longer game). Interesting comments about Thatcher too in comparison to Johnson. The latter is in his early populist phase it appears - his use of 3 word slogans, his so-called levelling up agenda and public spending announcements - many of which will not come to fruition of course because change is structural and far more long term - he can only see being in power again as his horizon.

Many studies of populism see 4 or even 5 distinct phases - from a kind of euphoria to collapse, at which point so often the incomes of the middle and working classes are lower than they were when the populist movement and project began (an experiment it might be called). Populism appeals to many voters who want their politics simplified. There is a wide disinterest for education about politics and the bigger picture. Hence, spiv's like Johnson (let's make no bones about it, that's what he is) jump in to the vacuum.

Speaking of vacuums, I've posted below an article that provides a picture of modern-day France (a really well-written piece of journalism) and what is happening on our doorstep (yes, we ought to be very interested in our nearest neighbours) and the complexities that are playing out in the next French presidential election. It's a good description of how a political system can be torn apart, be it Macron's 'neither left nor right'  or the far-right's Zemmour with his 3 'i's' (immigration, identity and Islam).  A fascinating watch and I think there are lessons for the UK, even taking into account the differences in electoral system.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/oct/17/macron-and-the-french-trump-trap-gaullisms-heirs-in-a-political-vice?

[Creative Midfielder 1,996]

8 hours ago, horsefly said:

If Labour get this right we could see a very rapid change in public support as the sh*it storm that currently envelops the country worsens through the coming months, and Johnson's appalling incompetence, indifference, and dishonesty become increasing exposed. That scenario, of course, rests on a very big IF. The current evidence suggests that Johnson is able to get away with quite catastrophic levels of incompetence and failure, not to mention astounding levels of corruption and unethical behaviour; thus it is not enough for Labour to think the public will at some point see through his fraudulent reign.  The party needs to unite behind a centre-left agenda that convinces the public that they can trust them to act in their best interests, and does not exist solely to serve the interests of far-left party members. I can't say I'm massively hopeful that the far-left will tuck away their ideological yearnings for the sake of the interests of the working population they claim to support. However, at the time I thought Kinnock's task of retrieving Labour for the ordinary working person was virtually impossible, and ulimately it lead to 13 years of Labour government. And let me conclude by reminding those Labour Party members critical of Blair and Brown that they helped transform the lot of huge numbers of ordinary working people by investing record levels of money into education, health and the transition out of poverty. Those people, indeed, who give the Labour Party its very raison d'etre.

Excellent post, with which I fully agree. I also think it gives me a good excuse to return to one of my hobby horses which has had quite a few outings already but I think is relevant here

It clearly is an absolute prerequisite that Labour unites around a centre-left agenda for them to have any electoral success. But given our dysfunctional electoral system and the ways our politics have fragmented since Labour last won an election, I don't think there is any chance whatsoever of Labour winning an overall majority at the next election, not even if Keir Starmer walks on water next week.

But what is definitely possible, indeed very likely is that an opposition alliance with a centre left platform could defeat the Tories and probably quite heavily because as we've seen before the Tories would be extremely vulnerable in many constituencies if they were only facing a single opponent rather than a 2 or even 3-way split.

Edited October 17, 2021 by Creative Midfielder

[nevermind, neoliberalism has had it 159]

Starmer will do as he is told by Blair, Mandelson and those that pull his strings in the security services.

He offers nothing than the status quo and will rather align himself with the Tories than to ever realise that his rejection of the centre left, many who are not paying membership anymore and have left, is what is needed to enact a different agenda to the Tories.

To be honest, I can't see him changing his support rule for those in Government who failed, even if he says nothing and waits until the Tories peed off the EU so much that they shut the channel ports, which would be enough to bring chaos here within a week.

[1902 1,167]

On 15/10/2021 at 09:16, BigFish said:

I think I know why you always quote YouGov which is a bit of an outlier, not saying outliers can't be right, @ricardo. It is that their methodology produces much higher Green support and much lower Labour. That said pretty clear that Tory support is c39% which is probably enough to win and have a majority, albeit significantly reduced.

 

 

I'm a little suspicious of YouGov at the moment, as you say outliers are sometimes correct, however they were pretty far out in Wales recently. Not sure if that's a weighting issue or perhaps the wording of the question but on the limited evidence of one election, they do seem to be understating Labours support by 3-4 points.

[1902 1,167]

2 minutes ago, nevermind, neoliberalism has had it said:

Starmer will do as he is told by Blair, Mandelson and those that pull his strings in the security services.

He offers nothing than the status quo and will rather align himself with the Tories than to ever realise that his rejection of the centre left, many who are not paying membership anymore and have left, is what is needed to enact a different agenda to the Tories.

To be honest, I can't see him changing his support rule for those in Government who failed, even if he says nothing and waits until the Tories peed off the EU so much that they shut the channel ports, which would be enough to bring chaos here within a week.

Saying that those who are leaving Labour are the centre left shows that you are very far out from understanding where the centre ground of British politics currently is.

[PurpleCanary 5,557]

Good posts from horsefly and sonyc. I have followed politics since the mid-1950s, and what you have now in the UK is unprecedented. Until very recently Johnson would never have got near 10 Downing Street. His fellow Tories wouldn’t have allowed the electorate to have a chance of choosing someone so totally unfit for the job. And his opinion poll ratings now would have mystified them.

There have been many analyses of why this is, but it struck me that the current craziness is encapsulated in the ‘levelling up’ policy, in three ways.

Firstly, it is presented as if the Tories have been out of power until Johnson became PM, rather than it now being 11 years of Tory rule, during which time Cameron or May or even Johnson early on could have started implementing the policy. The reality is that it was the austerity drive of Cameron and Osborne that exacerbated the economic divisions already existing in society for which levelling up is now painted as the panacea.

Secondly, as others have pointed out, this policy, far from being part of an economic strategy, was suddenly dreamed up in desperation not just as the solution to the catastrophic - and widely predicted - consequences of Brexit but also to have all along been the real argument for leaving the EU. A lie about a lie.

Thirdly, even if one ignores both the above absurdities, to implement such a far-reaching shift in the economy of a country requires a steadfast and hard-working prime minister and a cabinet of all the talents. Which the UK very much does not have. This is the worst and least talented government since world war two.

And yet I have read articles taking this Potemkin policy seriously, arguing that Johnson has stolen a march on Labour because the people want economic change, and this appeals to them, despite all the absurdities listed above.

It will not happen and anyone who has been following Johnson’s career should know it will never happen, but it seems many voters are still baffled by empty slogans and boosterism into trusting the completely untrustworthy.

Edited October 17, 2021 by PurpleCanary

[horsefly 4,296]

3 hours ago, Creative Midfielder said:

But what is definitely possible, indeed very likely is that an opposition alliance with a centre left platform could defeat the Tories and probably quite heavily because as we've seen before the Tories would be extremely vulnerable in many constituencies if they were only facing a single opponent rather than a 2 or even 3-way split.

Absolutely! What I found truly appalling during the early part of Johnson's leadership was the failure of Corbyn and the Liberal Democrats to make any attempt to unite in opposition to his push for a general election. At that stage the Tories did not have the numbers in parliament to force through any legislation, and a united Labour and Liberal Democrat opposition could easily have forced a second brexit referendum. Future generations will rightly hold them significantly responsible for failing to overcome their egos and arrogance, and their appalling lack of judgement about the best interests of those they claimed to serve. I pray that they will not commit the same folly again and genuinely act to ensure that the country is not subject to a further term of this bunch of corrupt, incompetent spivs. That, as you say, will require a united will to defeat the Tories seat by seat necessitating a commitment to some form of tactical voting.

[TheGunnShow 5,937]

9 hours ago, Herman said:

Just had a look. All very close for years except the last one. Shocking really why they are popular but there you go.Equally shocking how unpopular Labour were under the last leader. A lot of damage needs to be repaired.🤨

To be fair, I'd argue Chris Green, the Tory incumbent, is a better MP at local level than Julie Hilling was. I don't agree with him a heck of a lot, but in something of a defence, he gets about and works quite hard for the constituency. At the same time, I would hope anyone that displaces him realises the work that has to be done.

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

6 hours ago, 1902 said:

Saying that those who are leaving Labour are the centre left shows that you are very far out from understanding where the centre ground of British politics currently is.

I would consider myself a socialist. I do not believe that is far left. That wing goes so far left that it emerges far right just like the Soviet Paranoiac Union.

I believe it is centre left because we have improved from when Keir Hardie became the first Labour leader. I don't miss any meals as my waist attests and I don't have to worry about putting the central heating on. 

Although spending most of the time in opposition, the Labour Party was powerful and persuasive enough to alter Conservative governments thinking and make changes.

But ever since Tony Belair and now Sir Keir Tory Smith, have been in power, being popular has become more important than change.

Hence, I resigned from the party three months ago.

[1902 1,167]

32 minutes ago, keelansgrandad said:

I would consider myself a socialist. I do not believe that is far left. That wing goes so far left that it emerges far right just like the Soviet Paranoiac Union.

I believe it is centre left because we have improved from when Keir Hardie became the first Labour leader. I don't miss any meals as my waist attests and I don't have to worry about putting the central heating on. 

Although spending most of the time in opposition, the Labour Party was powerful and persuasive enough to alter Conservative governments thinking and make changes.

But ever since Tony Belair and now Sir Keir Tory Smith, have been in power, being popular has become more important than change.

Hence, I resigned from the party three months ago.

By definition though, there's a big gap between centre left and far left, when I said that the people leaving Labour aren't centerist, I was arguing that they were all Trotskyists. 

Tbh though, political centre isnt defined by where we believe it should be and as it stands right now, the Corbinite wing of Labour doesn't represent the median voter. It's quite a long way left of that. That's not to say it won't change but that's the reality in this current moment.

[TheGunnShow 5,937]

Overton window has shifted a long way right. Probably due to the prevailing media landscape.

[KernowCanary 214]

They couldn’t even get the slides onto the screen correctly, all to a point words were cut off!.

Just how incompetent does a government need to be to even not get that one simple job right!?.

[Herman 9,754]

They were the government that gave a massive ferry contract to a company with no ferries. They're not competent and everyone can see it. Some don't want to see it....

[Herman 9,754]

This is pretty much spot on imo.

 

[horsefly 4,296]

Raab wouldn't disturb his holiday when Kabul fell to the Taliban, and Johnson wouldn't disturb his holiday to discuss the current deepening crisis in Afghanistan with other world leaders. What a shameless shower of lazy sh*its this government is.

[BigFish 1,986]

19 hours ago, 1902 said:

I'm a little suspicious of YouGov at the moment, as you say outliers are sometimes correct, however they were pretty far out in Wales recently. Not sure if that's a weighting issue or perhaps the wording of the question but on the limited evidence of one election, they do seem to be understating Labours support by 3-4 points.

I know our friend @ricardo likes a good opinion poll to take the temperature but he seems to have missed this one for some reason?

 

 

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

Perhaps polls should be banned? Are they not just another way of somebody making money without contributing a morsel to life?

[A Load of Squit 5,161]

*cough* Bullsh!t.

 

[nevermind, neoliberalism has had it 159]

On 17/10/2021 at 12:33, 1902 said:

Saying that those who are leaving Labour are the centre left shows that you are very far out from understanding where the centre ground of British politics currently is.

The centre ground of english politics perse depends on the political gullibility of those who think polls are right and a good thing, those who become genetically accustomed to being hoodwinked at elections. There is no more centre ground, its blood red blue Conservatism that relies on emergency laws and lies to govern a crumbling union. They are using the law and more to get those who speak out about their crooks vilified, smeared and put in jail. That is the reality of a bullying  England over its colonies, who can see that Independence for England from Europe, does not mean they can act on behalf of their people and have their own independence, to trade with Europe and or to make their own decisions about how they are governed.

As an MP you should have the utmost goal to create a fair democratic fully proportional voting system for us, not sit on your hands raking it in, or for that matter selling out your foreign policy agenda to some rogue state that murders on a daily basis and, like us, puts up two fingers to international agreements. PR was only ever held up as a dream by Labour, it was never to get off the ground as politicians did not want to be controlled or directed by their constituents, they wanted to do as they like, hence their massive support for the Tory Governments and their policies, from Blair's disciples of doom who wallowed in jailing journalist/publisher Julian Assange. The Labour party should be friends to all countries, rather than following a political construct using spy's and infiltration and more backstabbing.

The centre left is a construct and it has lost its heart. This old meme will be replaced with climate emergency activism and the inevitable collapse of the Labour party due to self servers and crooks who smear and backstab and moan that they have lost so many members.

Labour is a damp squid and it will wither with the oligarchs that lead them on to the path of self destruction. Enjoy it from your arm chair.

 

 

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

17 hours ago, 1902 said:

By definition though, there's a big gap between centre left and far left, when I said that the people leaving Labour aren't centerist, I was arguing that they were all Trotskyists. 

Tbh though, political centre isnt defined by where we believe it should be and as it stands right now, the Corbinite wing of Labour doesn't represent the median voter. It's quite a long way left of that. That's not to say it won't change but that's the reality in this current moment.

I don't think Corbyn's policies were that left. I would say he tried to embrace too many policies if anything, not what they were. People didn't understand how he could pay for so many. Certainly not marxist as the media claimed. In fact they were quite popular with many voters. It was his indecision on Brexit. He was a sceptic and that isn't what people wanted to hear. Take a stand they said and he didn't.

[1902 1,167]

1 hour ago, nevermind, neoliberalism has had it said:

The centre ground of english politics perse depends on the political gullibility of those who think polls are right and a good thing, those who become genetically accustomed to being hoodwinked at elections. There is no more centre ground, its blood red blue Conservatism that relies on emergency laws and lies to govern a crumbling union. They are using the law and more to get those who speak out about their crooks vilified, smeared and put in jail. That is the reality of a bullying  England over its colonies, who can see that Independence for England from Europe, does not mean they can act on behalf of their people and have their own independence, to trade with Europe and or to make their own decisions about how they are governed.

As an MP you should have the utmost goal to create a fair democratic fully proportional voting system for us, not sit on your hands raking it in, or for that matter selling out your foreign policy agenda to some rogue state that murders on a daily basis and, like us, puts up two fingers to international agreements. PR was only ever held up as a dream by Labour, it was never to get off the ground as politicians did not want to be controlled or directed by their constituents, they wanted to do as they like, hence their massive support for the Tory Governments and their policies, from Blair's disciples of doom who wallowed in jailing journalist/publisher Julian Assange. The Labour party should be friends to all countries, rather than following a political construct using spy's and infiltration and more backstabbing.

The centre left is a construct and it has lost its heart. This old meme will be replaced with climate emergency activism and the inevitable collapse of the Labour party due to self servers and crooks who smear and backstab and moan that they have lost so many members.

Labour is a damp squid and it will wither with the oligarchs that lead them on to the path of self destruction. Enjoy it from your arm chair.

 

 

Well that wasn't really that relevant diatribe

But good to have a list of things you like:

Assange

PR

And things you dont:

The conservative party

The labour party

England and it's relations with the other members of the Union.

[1902 1,167]

1 hour ago, keelansgrandad said:

I don't think Corbyn's policies were that left. I would say he tried to embrace too many policies if anything, not what they were. People didn't understand how he could pay for so many. Certainly not marxist as the media claimed. In fact they were quite popular with many voters. It was his indecision on Brexit. He was a sceptic and that isn't what people wanted to hear. Take a stand they said and he didn't.

They were popular with sections, but the issue is that people didn't get how he was going to pay for them *without tax rises*, and that is why I don't think we can call Corbyn anywhere near the centre of British politics. 

In countries further to the left, the UK tax burden would not be regarded as prohibitively large and people would be willing to see tax go up to cover those policies, not so in Britain. 

I would like to clarify, none of this refers to my own views, mainly what I believe about where the UK currently is politically. 

I do agree he also found himself in a mess over Brexit and with his messaging but this was suplimentary to his economic positions. 

[Creative Midfielder 1,996]

1 hour ago, keelansgrandad said:

I don't think Corbyn's policies were that left. I would say he tried to embrace too many policies if anything, not what they were. People didn't understand how he could pay for so many. Certainly not marxist as the media claimed. In fact they were quite popular with many voters. It was his indecision on Brexit. He was a sceptic and that isn't what people wanted to hear. Take a stand they said and he didn't.

Spot on, Corbyn may arguably have had track record that was more left wing but his policies as leader were very middle of the road and, as you say, popular with many voters.

Problem was, firstly he just wasn't a good leader in general and secondly as you also said he was foolish and indecisive on Brexit and ended up alienating both Leavers and Remainers.

Almost forgot, thirdly he really stupidly allowed Johnson to con him into an unnecessary election - one which the whole country, apart from him, knew he was going to lose.

[Creative Midfielder 1,996]

10 minutes ago, 1902 said:

Well that wasn't really that relevant diatribe

But good to have a list of things you like:

Assange

PR

And things you dont:

The conservative party

The labour party

England and it's relations with the other members of the Union.

Well, I think quite a few of us would be with him as far as those lists are concerned 😀

[Yellow Fever 3,767]

5 minutes ago, Creative Midfielder said:

Spot on, Corbyn may arguably have had track record that was more left wing but his policies as leader were very middle of the road and, as you say, popular with many voters.

Problem was, firstly he just wasn't a good leader in general and secondly as you also said he was foolish and indecisive on Brexit and ended up alienating both Leavers and Remainers.

Almost forgot, thirdly he really stupidly allowed Johnson to con him into an unnecessary election - one which the whole country, apart from him, knew he was going to lose.

The problem with Corbyn was not his economic policies in the first instance - indeed Sunak and Johnson have spent far more and implemented many of them (I see more rail nationalization etc.).

The problem was Corbyn's other baggage - excuses for Russia (Skripal), subs with no nukes, pacifism or 'anti-western'  and general other non-worldly student politics - and yes also a closet Brexiteer like most of his other unreformed 1970s Labourites. Beyond a protest or tactical vote unelectable.

[1902 1,167]

9 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

The problem with Corbyn was not his economic policies in the first instance - indeed Sunak and Johnson have spent far more and implemented many of them (I see more rail nationalization etc.).

The problem was Corbyn's other baggage - excuses for Russia (Skripal), subs with no nukes, pacifism or 'anti-western'  and general other non-worldly student politics - and yes also a closet Brexiteer like most of his other unreformed 1970s Labourites. Beyond a protest or tactical vote unelectable.

Johnson and Sunak benefit from an inbuilt belief that when they tax it's only out of necessity, people seem to believe that the Labour party enjoy taxing them and will wreck the economy by doing it. Essentially, when the Tories push a message of spending, they can paint it as an unpleasant necessity. 

Anyway, if you feel that the Conservatives are moving left on economics and you dislike it, but your alternative is labour, it's a bit of a false choice. Nobody believes that a Labour government will be more fiscally conservative than a Tory one, even when that might actually be the case. Essentially, true Thatcherite Tories are caught in the FPP trap, possibly for the first time in their lives.

 

[1902 1,167]

21 minutes ago, Creative Midfielder said:

Well, I think quite a few of us would be with him as far as those lists are concerned 😀

Hahaha, well that wasn't the discussion I was having, but possibly that's true. 

Though Assange is really not my cup of tea.