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47 minutes ago, Well b back said:

The thread is about who will be the new Tory Leader,and many Tories want Farage as the next leader. ?

Who would you like for the new Tory leader WBB, when the current incumbent eventually smooches off to the States?

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Tory majority now down to 38.ūüĎć

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I've no idea what Starmer thinks he's doing. A disgusting woman who defended her sex offender husband. The only thing more confusing about Labour accepting her is why on earth she wants to join. 

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The Tories have to 're-brand' and go with a bland leader who's relatively 'untainted' from previous administrations, Penny Mordaunt is the only one from the current 'possibles' that might engender some public support, choosing Braverman or Bedenoch would just lead to more years in the political wilderness.  

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37 minutes ago, DraytonBoy said:

The Tories have to 're-brand' and go with a bland leader who's relatively 'untainted' from previous administrations, Penny Mordaunt is the only one from the current 'possibles' that might engender some public support, choosing Braverman or Bedenoch would just lead to more years in the political wilderness.  

Not the brightest light bulb in the pack

 

 

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I see the Tory attempts to project a hung parliament from the LOCAL elections has really reflected people's voting intentions in a NATIONAL election. Since when did the collective political profile of local elections represent anything close to the profile of our national parliament?

Screenshot_9-5-2024_85642_twitter.com.jpeg

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, dylanisabaddog said:

I've no idea what Starmer thinks he's doing. A disgusting woman who defended her sex offender husband. The only thing more confusing about Labour accepting her is why on earth she wants to join. 

Have to be an optimist Dylan.

She's clearly been on a journey and may have finally shrugged off the baggage of her ex sex-offending husband and rejoined the human race.

Clearly housing and the small boats are important to her and she wants real action. She's realized / seen the hollow Tory grandstanding and what's the in-word 'performative' action (in that it looks good but achieves little to nothing) on Rwanda. Clearly a moment of clarity has struck her and she's leapt for a fresh clean start. I'll give her the benefit of any doubt.  True actions speak louder than hollow or 'performative' deeds and words. 

She's not standing anyhow in Dover at the next election so I think her change of heart takes nothing away from Labour. Yes quite possibly a damascene conversion

Edited by Yellow Fever
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Posted (edited)
14 minutes ago, horsefly said:

I see the Tory attempts to project a hung parliament from the LOCAL elections has really reflected people's voting intentions in a NATIONAL election. Since when did the collective political profile of local elections represent anything close to the profile of our national parliament?

Screenshot_9-5-2024_85642_twitter.com.jpeg

Yes HF - I was amazed (actually angry) that for instance Sky News over that weekend were running ' Breaking News' predicting a much smaller Labour lead in any GE - on the basis of local council poll ratios. All the serious commentators or experts (i.e Curtice) had loudly explained beforehand not to read too much into the locals for any number of the obvious reasons. Not national, low turnout, local issues, protest votes, some (many) may vote differently locally to that in a GE and so on like me. 

I really thought it was treating people like idiots or mugs.

Edited by Yellow Fever
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26 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

Yes HF - I was amazed (actually angry) that for instance Sky News over that weekend were running ' Breaking News' predicting a much smaller Labour lead in any GE - on the basis of local council poll ratios. All the serious commentators or experts (i.e Curtice) had loudly explained beforehand not to read too much into the locals for any number of the obvious reasons.

I really thought it was treating people like idiots or mugs.

There does reach a point where a total Tory collapse may actually be bad for UK democracy. I don't like them but I'm less keen on the idea of Reform or a similar Farage led party being the main representatives of right wing thought in this country.

Saying that, the idea of the opposition being the Lib Dems is kind of hillarious.

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Posted (edited)
5 hours ago, king canary said:

There does reach a point where a total Tory collapse may actually be bad for UK democracy. I don't like them but I'm less keen on the idea of Reform or a similar Farage led party being the main representatives of right wing thought in this country.

Saying that, the idea of the opposition being the Lib Dems is kind of hillarious.

If that poll is anywhere¬†near correct its terminal¬†for the current Tory party - as in the Whigs. 50 seater¬†coach large enough¬†to drive them away into exile. Rwanda would¬†probably take them ūüėČ

They do however deserve it!

They'll have to recreate themselves (as indeed the Whigs did) and return to sensible pro-business, middle of the road policies including on Europe. They'll never out reform Reform to the right. That dribbling rabid rump 10% will always be there same as Corbyn's SWP to the left.

 

Edited by Yellow Fever
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3 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

If that poll is anywhere near correct its terminal for the current Tory party - as in the Whigs. 50 seater coach large enough to drive them away into exile.

They do however deserve it!

They'll have to recreate themselves (as indeed the Whigs did) and return to sensible pro-business, middle of the road policies including on Europe. They'll never out reform Reform to the right. That dribbling rabid rump 10% will always be there same as Coybyn's SWP to the left.

 

Yeah I am assuming that they'll go through the same stages Labour did- lurch to the right post defeat with a leader like Badenoch who the base love but isn't popular amongst other voters, another election defeat, then a power grab by those who want to move more central.

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1 minute ago, king canary said:

Yeah I am assuming that they'll go through the same stages Labour did- lurch to the right post defeat with a leader like Badenoch who the base love but isn't popular amongst other voters, another election defeat, then a power grab by those who want to move more central.

If their vote share is under 20% they may shatter completely.

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Elphicke has upset Tice which is a bonus of all this. 

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1 hour ago, king canary said:

Yeah I am assuming that they'll go through the same stages Labour did- lurch to the right post defeat with a leader like Badenoch who the base love but isn't popular amongst other voters, another election defeat, then a power grab by those who want to move more central.

When you put it like that, that sounds much like the pattern with the Conservatives post-1997, although to be fair IDS and William Hague weren't as far to the right as Corbyn was to the left.

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26 minutes ago, Herman said:

Elphicke has upset Tice which is a bonus of all this. 

There's also a wonderfully hilarious rant from Gullis doing the rounds on Twitter. 

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Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, DraytonBoy said:

The Tories have to 're-brand' and go with a bland leader who's relatively 'untainted' from previous administrations, Penny Mordaunt is the only one from the current 'possibles' that might engender some public support, choosing Braverman or Bedenoch would just lead to more years in the political wilderness.  

There's precious little talent there. They basically need to find - and it's a bloody thankless task - the next William Hague. He had a real Augean stables to clean out, and whoever comes in next will have a similar sized job on their hands.

Edited by TheGunnShow

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1 hour ago, horsefly said:

There's also a wonderfully hilarious rant from Gullis doing the rounds on Twitter. 

There's a lot of shaved gorillas upset at his representation. 

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5 hours ago, king canary said:

Yeah I am assuming that they'll go through the same stages Labour did- lurch to the right post defeat with a leader like Badenoch who the base love but isn't popular amongst other voters, another election defeat, then a power grab by those who want to move more central.

Given their elderly and ageing voter base I'm not sue they've got enough time for that !

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21 hours ago, Nik Vawn said:

Who would you like for the new Tory leader WBB, when the current incumbent eventually smooches off to the States?

The great great grandchildren of somebody who hasn't yet been born.

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23 hours ago, Nik Vawn said:

Who would you like for the new Tory leader WBB, when the current incumbent eventually smooches off to the States?

Andy Street, won’t happen though as he won’t be standing as an MP, but would sort out the lot of them.

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20 hours ago, king canary said:

There does reach a point where a total Tory collapse may actually be bad for UK democracy. I don't like them but I'm less keen on the idea of Reform or a similar Farage led party being the main representatives of right wing thought in this country.

Saying that, the idea of the opposition being the Lib Dems is kind of hillarious.

It is an hilarious thought but it's also quite possible. This chart converts opinion polls into seats and has a best and worst case scenario. It's based on April polling and in the last few days YouGov says Labour has gained another 3 points. 

It's probably still another 5 months until the election and a lot of things could happen, but at the moment the gap is widening rather than narrowing. I think we're going to see tactical voting on a scale never seen before. 

Whether such a huge majority is a good or bad thing is debatable. Eventually we should see 2 parties fighting over the middle ground with the extreme right and left being little more than a  noisy sideshow. 

Screenshot_20240510_040027_Chrome.thumb.jpg.646296b73ab18dd64fe74060b739555a.jpg

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The only change I can see is if a significant number currently supporting Reform decide to vote Tory. 

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, DraytonBoy said:

The only change I can see is if a significant number currently supporting Reform decide to vote Tory. 

Elephant in the room alert. 

Will people who support Remain be prepared to vote for an Indian Hindu? 

Don't judge that question by your standards (or mine). Make a judgement based on the base support for Reform. 

Edited by dylanisabaddog

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12 hours ago, Well b back said:

Andy Street, won’t happen though as he won’t be standing as an MP, but would sort out the lot of them.

Yes decent call, bit tainted by supporting the lettuce but most candidates would have some dubious vegetables in their garden¬†ūüėÄ

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13 hours ago, Well b back said:

Andy Street, won’t happen though as he won’t be standing as an MP, but would sort out the lot of them.

In order to become leader of the Conservative Party you need to first get the support of your MPs and then win a ballot of members. Street wouldn't get membership support and looking at who is likely to be left it's unlikely he would get the support of his MPs. 

However ridiculous it sounds, one scenario is that a Tory in a safe seat resigns (Sunak?) and Johnson comes back. However, I'm not convinced that Johnson would be prepared to do 5 years in opposition with the strong possibility that he would lose at the end of it. 

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12 hours ago, dylanisabaddog said:

In order to become leader of the Conservative Party you need to first get the support of your MPs and then win a ballot of members. Street wouldn't get membership support and looking at who is likely to be left it's unlikely he would get the support of his MPs. 

However ridiculous it sounds, one scenario is that a Tory in a safe seat resigns (Sunak?) and Johnson comes back. However, I'm not convinced that Johnson would be prepared to do 5 years in opposition with the strong possibility that he would lose at the end of it. 

True, but the question I was asked was not if it was possible, but who I would want as leader.

He is far to sensible for them anyway, should have stood as an independent last week, would have won by a country mile.

 

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Posted (edited)
6 hours ago, Well b back said:

True, but the question I was asked was not if it was possible, but who I would want as leader.

He is far to sensible for them anyway, should have stood as an independent last week, would have won by a country mile.

 

Street was effectively an independent candidate. All his leaflets were green and made no mention of the Conservative Party. 

Allegedly he has been offered the opportunity to stand for the Conservatives in a Midlands seat that has been left open for him just in case. 

It seems a shame that a lot of the Conservatives who have caused our problems will hang on to their seats and one of the few decent ones has lost his. 

Edited by dylanisabaddog

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