New Tory Leader

[1902 1,167]

1 minute ago, BigFish said:

Ever wonder why, after the North Sea Oil boom that Norway have highly efficient public services and a Soveriegn Wealth Fund when the UK has a massive national debt. Well @Rock The Boat my friend it is because Thatcher took all our North Sea revenues and pissed them up the wall on unemployment benefit. After that she sold off pretty much everything of value. There was no economic miracle and productivity remained poor. Truss is trying to repeat this without the Oil so will need to borrow until it all goes **** up.

Yes and no. We squandered our oil wealth, but the UK population is 11 times the size of Norway's.

The comparison is not great.

[Well b back 3,203]

Anyone just see on BBC News SKS 1st speech at conference where he used a phrase that will surely catch on

’ Its not Trickle Down it’s P*** Take ‘

LOL

[Rock The Boat 1,330]

10 hours ago, Daz Sparks said:

Below describes this folly abundantly;

 

The Barber Boom (1971-1974) is the story of an economic gear shift which sent post-war Britain careering around country lanes, before skidding on an oil slick and being sent ditchward. There it was left, engine smoking, entangled in the brambles of inflation. It wasn’t until 1980 that road-side recovery eventually arrived in the shape of Paul Volcker and his inflation curbing toolkit.

You are not wrong, Daz, but we need to wrap a little context around this in order to compare with today's situation. The Barber Boom was turbocharged with the brake pads removed. The Chancellor let rip with both fiscal and money supply measures which was a bit like tasering a sleeping man. What Volker did (in the US) was to implement money supply tightening under Reagan and copied by the Brits on this side of the channel.

I think we can argue that the recent mini budget is closer in ethos to the first Howe budget of 1979 which had deep cuts in taxes. And whereas Barber 71 increased money supply, Chancellor Howe 79 budgeted to stand still, like the Truss mini-budget.

So the outcome for 1979, which was followed by other budgets that did work on money supply was generally seen to be successful, though of course, if you cherry pick a country such as Norway which experienced an oil boom without the underlying economic issues that Conservatives inherited from Labour in 1979, you can always find someone who was more successful than us. The important takeaway, though, is that if we today emulate the measures of Howe 79 rather than Barber 71, we might bring some good cheer to the country and even to my old mate, @BigFish.

[BigFish 1,986]

2 hours ago, 1902 said:

Yes and no. We squandered our oil wealth, but the UK population is 11 times the size of Norway's.

The comparison is not great.

A point is being missed here. That is the Thatcher governements wasted not only our oil revenues, but also sold off significant assets because tax cuts did grow the economy enough. If the Tories had not sold off BritOil, BP and British Gas the UK would be far better placed to withstand the current crisis. To this was added the inflating of asset price bubbles, most prominently in the housing market leading to the current affordability issues. This was not helped by the removal of mortgage tax relief so that apparently now a 3% mortgage is as expensive as a 14% mortgage back in the day. Tax cuts didn't work then, and there is no evidence they will increase growth now.

The irony in the outcome is that the UK government is going to borrow billions of pounds and give it to the French government via EDF so they can keep the energy prices for French residents lower. Is that really what anyone wants.

[horsefly 4,298]

9 hours ago, Rock The Boat said:

You are not wrong, Daz, but we need to wrap a little context around this in order to compare with today's situation. The Barber Boom was turbocharged with the brake pads removed. The Chancellor let rip with both fiscal and money supply measures which was a bit like tasering a sleeping man. What Volker did (in the US) was to implement money supply tightening under Reagan and copied by the Brits on this side of the channel.

I think we can argue that the recent mini budget is closer in ethos to the first Howe budget of 1979 which had deep cuts in taxes. And whereas Barber 71 increased money supply, Chancellor Howe 79 budgeted to stand still, like the Truss mini-budget.

So the outcome for 1979, which was followed by other budgets that did work on money supply was generally seen to be successful, though of course, if you cherry pick a country such as Norway which experienced an oil boom without the underlying economic issues that Conservatives inherited from Labour in 1979, you can always find someone who was more successful than us. The important takeaway, though, is that if we today emulate the measures of Howe 79 rather than Barber 71, we might bring some good cheer to the country and even to my old mate, @BigFish.

More completely illiterate economics.  The simple fact remains that Truss is borrowing multi-billions to fund tax cuts for the wealthy.  This mirrors exactly the recklessness of the Barber budget, NOT Howe's in '79.

Edited September 25, 2022 by horsefly

[Worthy Nigelton 1,044]

The one bit if this that gives me hope is that it is so badly thought out, unpopular and flawed that they can't possibly win in two years time and in all likelihood it will be another 1997 bloodbath which will take them a decade or so to recover from. Couple that with more elderly conservaties dying, and more younger left-wing kids hitting voting age, we could see the end of the Tories as we know them. In 10-15 years they will have to move beyond the same neoliberal nonsense that has dominated their thinking for 45 years and the period where Thatcher and Reaganomics is king will be over. What emerges will hopefully be a more balanced, fair and responsible conservatism that might not be my bag but at least it won't be based on being as horrible as possible.

[Herman 9,757]

15 hours ago, Well b back said:

Don’t understand that one Herman, how have they upset them ? 
Thanks

Sorry mate, it was a bit vague. Further to Squit's post there was these announcements.

 

Edited September 25, 2022 by Herman

[littleyellowbirdie 2,547]

11 hours ago, BigFish said:

Ever wonder why, after the North Sea Oil boom that Norway have highly efficient public services and a Soveriegn Wealth Fund when the UK has a massive national debt. Well @Rock The Boat my friend it is because Thatcher took all our North Sea revenues and pissed them up the wall on unemployment benefit. After that she sold off pretty much everything of value. There was no economic miracle and productivity remained poor. Truss is trying to repeat this without the Oil so will need to borrow until it all goes **** up.

This point was actually wrong though. That letter to the times was complaining about government policy of deflating demand, which is exactly the opposite of what Truss' policies are doing. 

One of the problems with Truss policies, beyond the fundamentally appalling principle of borrowing more to put into the pockets of the best off, is it's effectively inflating demand when there's a labour shortage capping output. Little will trickle down and the extra deficit spending won't even be 'pissed up the wall' keeping the poorest alive in difficult economic times. 

Also, the comparison between Norway and the UK reaction to North Sea oil ignores the horrendous situation the UK was already in. We were in such an economically dire state that we were bailed out by the IMF in the 1970s; it's hard to invest your income when it all needs to go straight out on outstanding bills. 

Edited September 25, 2022 by littleyellowbirdie

[Herman 9,757]

Another couple.

https://twitter.com/wwf_uk/status/1573792824688082945

https://twitter.com/WoodlandTrust/status/1573306571157041156

 

Edited September 25, 2022 by Herman

[BigFish 1,986]

3 hours ago, Worthy Nigelton said:

 we could see the end of the Tories as we know them.

The Conservative Party as I have known it is long gone, eaten from the inside by entryist ideological fruit loops who couldn't win elections under their own banner. They used to be paternalistic, believe in sound money and what worked. Now they immorally don't care about anyone vulnerable, indulge in fantasy economics that have never worked anywhere and are trolling the decent people of this country with policies that have the sole benefit of winding up the elctorate.

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

13 hours ago, Rock The Boat said:

You are not wrong, Daz, but we need to wrap a little context around this in order to compare with today's situation. The Barber Boom was turbocharged with the brake pads removed. The Chancellor let rip with both fiscal and money supply measures which was a bit like tasering a sleeping man. What Volker did (in the US) was to implement money supply tightening under Reagan and copied by the Brits on this side of the channel.

I think we can argue that the recent mini budget is closer in ethos to the first Howe budget of 1979 which had deep cuts in taxes. And whereas Barber 71 increased money supply, Chancellor Howe 79 budgeted to stand still, like the Truss mini-budget.

So the outcome for 1979, which was followed by other budgets that did work on money supply was generally seen to be successful, though of course, if you cherry pick a country such as Norway which experienced an oil boom without the underlying economic issues that Conservatives inherited from Labour in 1979, you can always find someone who was more successful than us. The important takeaway, though, is that if we today emulate the measures of Howe 79 rather than Barber 71, we might bring some good cheer to the country and even to my old mate, @BigFish.

What is the more important point is that Heath was a totally inept, incompetent and impotent PM. McLeod was the Chancellor and he died very soon after getting the job and it was handed to Barber. Just like Truss, another inept, incompetent but maybe not impotent PM has handed the Chancellorship to the Khazi.

And in the same way Barber gambled that borrowing, at that stage something most of us were not used to, would stimulate the economy which after all had just come through nearly twenty years of growth anyway.

So Trickle or Treat Liz is gambling again. But this time, at the bottom level, us people who find ourselves having to spend what we earn, are the chips. It clearly is ridiculous considering we only came out of austerity three years ago, to expect the 8/9ths of the iceberg to keep the other 1/9th in the sun.

[horsefly 4,298]

Is there any truth to the rumour that next--year's Glastonbury toilets are to be called "Khazi Kwartengs" because like him they will be full of sh*it?

[1902 1,167]

3 hours ago, littleyellowbirdie said:

This point was actually wrong though. That letter to the times was complaining about government policy of deflating demand, which is exactly the opposite of what Truss' policies are doing. 

One of the problems with Truss policies, beyond the fundamentally appalling principle of borrowing more to put into the pockets of the best off, is it's effectively inflating demand when there's a labour shortage capping output. Little will trickle down and the extra deficit spending won't even be 'pissed up the wall' keeping the poorest alive in difficult economic times. 

Also, the comparison between Norway and the UK reaction to North Sea oil ignores the horrendous situation the UK was already in. We were in such an economically dire state that we were bailed out by the IMF in the 1970s; it's hard to invest your income when it all needs to go straight out on outstanding bills. 

Pretty much this. Though I would say that then the demand boost will inevitably be short lived if the BoE focusses on reducing inflation at the same time.

In other words, this looks to me like the fastest route to stagflation ever imagined.

[PurpleCanary 5,558]

13 hours ago, BigFish said:

A point is being missed here. That is the Thatcher governements wasted not only our oil revenues, but also sold off significant assets because tax cuts did grow the economy enough. If the Tories had not sold off BritOil, BP and British Gas the UK would be far better placed to withstand the current crisis. To this was added the inflating of asset price bubbles, most prominently in the housing market leading to the current affordability issues. This was not helped by the removal of mortgage tax relief so that apparently now a 3% mortgage is as expensive as a 14% mortgage back in the day. Tax cuts didn't work then, and there is no evidence they will increase growth now.

The irony in the outcome is that the UK government is going to borrow billions of pounds and give it to the French government via EDF so they can keep the energy prices for French residents lower. Is that really what anyone wants.

Probably what French residents want...😎

[littleyellowbirdie 2,547]

4 hours ago, PurpleCanary said:

Probably what French residents want...😎

If that was aimed at me, then absolutely happy for other people to contribute to lowering my energy bill. Kind of ironic if it was a pop though, given that a lot of you seem keen for the UK to act like a doormat when other nations push their own interests against those of the UK.; France and the French act in their own interests as a nation first, always, and the population is broadly completely behind that. You won't see anyone making an issue about flag-waving either. Five French flags flying every day in this little village alone. Generally, I envy France the fact it seems to have far fewer people among its population who seem to take pleasure in denigrating and belittling the culture, traditions, and history of their own nation in such a gleeful fashion.

Actually, while we're digressing, this was the local supermarket a few days ago.

 

Edited September 25, 2022 by littleyellowbirdie

[PurpleCanary 5,558]

36 minutes ago, littleyellowbirdie said:

If that was aimed at me, then absolutely happy for other people to contribute to lowering my energy bill. Kind of ironic if it was a pop though, given that a lot of you seem keen for the UK to act like a doormat when other nations push their own interests against those of the UK.; France and the French act in their own interests as a nation first, always, and the population is broadly completely behind that. You won't see anyone making an issue about flag-waving either. Five French flags flying every day in this little village alone. Generally, I envy France the fact it seems to have far fewer people among its population who seem to take pleasure in denigrating and belittling the culture, traditions, and history of their own nation in such a gleeful fashion.

Actually, while we're digressing, this was the local supermarket a few days ago.

 

It wasn’t.

[littleyellowbirdie 2,547]

11 minutes ago, PurpleCanary said:

It wasn’t.

My apologies; 'French residents' seemed an oddly precise term.

[A Load of Squit 5,161]

The Post Office scandal should mean that Fugitsu should never get a Government contract ever again, they should've been liquidated and the proceeds given to the victims of their gross incompetence and deceitfulness.

 

[Well b back 3,203]

What do Johnson and Truss have in common ?

They are both as dodgy as f***. You would have thought the 160,000 would have looked closely at the background to any candidate put in front of them. The 160,000 must feel like the Turkeys that voted for Christmas. 
 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-63028710

[sonyc 5,517]

On 22/09/2022 at 18:30, Mr Apples said:

Fracking is the obvious solution...hopefully kicking off around JRM's Somerset constituency, Chipping Norton and Westminster. 🤣

Apples

Here is the map (you can input post codes) that is being shared online (this one by Friends of the Earth). Most sites are in the North and (north) Midlands but there are a few in the South and a site or two in Somerset (Mendips area).

https://friendsoftheearth.uk/climate/england-oil-and-gas-map-where-could-fracking-happen

 

Not great to find out that your area might be one for exploration.

[PurpleCanary 5,558]

3 hours ago, littleyellowbirdie said:

My apologies; 'French residents' seemed an oddly precise term.

I was repeating the precise term used by BF:

The irony in the outcome is that the UK government is going to borrow billions of pounds and give it to the French government via EDF so they can keep the energy prices for French residents lower. Is that really what anyone wants.

[Rock The Boat 1,330]

2 hours ago, Well b back said:

What do Johnson and Truss have in common ?

They are both as dodgy as f***. You would have thought the 160,000 would have looked closely at the background to any candidate put in front of them. The 160,000 must feel like the Turkeys that voted for Christmas. 
 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-63028710

I can't work out what your issue is. Is it that this special advisor comes from a lobbying company or that he is not taking a salary for the work he does?

[Rock The Boat 1,330]

2 hours ago, sonyc said:

Here is the map (you can input post codes) that is being shared online (this one by Friends of the Earth). Most sites are in the North and (north) Midlands but there are a few in the South and a site or two in Somerset (Mendips area).

https://friendsoftheearth.uk/climate/england-oil-and-gas-map-where-could-fracking-happen

 

Not great to find out that your area might be one for exploration.

I didn't have you down as a NIMBY, buddy?

[sonyc 5,517]

2 minutes ago, Rock The Boat said:

I didn't have you down as a NIMBY, buddy?

No I'm not RTB. My comment was an empathetic comment for people living in areas that could be affected (north east and north west and south Yorkshire for example). I think many people could be worried because of the stories of tremors not so long ago, before the testing was stopped. 

 

[Well b back 3,203]

The pound has carried on crashing at Monday opening now below 1.04. This blows away the comments that we ‘ can’t just look at one day on the market ‘. Dreading the FTSE opening.

I wonder if the BOE will find it necessary to intervene today, and how that will leave the Truss team ?

[Well b back 3,203]

8 hours ago, Rock The Boat said:

I can't work out what your issue is. Is it that this special advisor comes from a lobbying company or that he is not taking a salary for the work he does?

It must be wrong if you are defending it.

[sonyc 5,517]

1 hour ago, Well b back said:

The pound has carried on crashing at Monday opening now below 1.04. This blows away the comments that we ‘ can’t just look at one day on the market ‘. Dreading the FTSE opening.

I wonder if the BOE will find it necessary to intervene today, and how that will leave the Truss team ?

It has to intervene I think.

Money talks but international markets are shouting and screaming. The talk is that we've gone mad. 

Many posters here have been right. Same with Brexit. Getting to see what taking back control means now!

It could be the start of the end for Truss barely two weeks into her premiership. Her authority must be shredded.

 

Edited September 26, 2022 by sonyc

[horsefly 4,298]

11 hours ago, sonyc said:

Here is the map (you can input post codes) that is being shared online (this one by Friends of the Earth). Most sites are in the North and (north) Midlands but there are a few in the South and a site or two in Somerset (Mendips area).

https://friendsoftheearth.uk/climate/england-oil-and-gas-map-where-could-fracking-happen

 

Not great to find out that your area might be one for exploration.

I would love to be in the offices of those Tory MPs who find themselves representing constituencies marked on that map. Industry insiders are pretty unanimous that fracking will not bring gas prices down nor make a significant enough contribution to gas supply. I guess those MPs will be busy on the phone trying to drum up a job opportunity for 2024.

[Yellow Fever 3,780]

It seems the government has begin its final economic Kamikaze - Kami-Kwarteng run.

At least it will be over soon.

'Black' Wednesday  - can't fight the markets all over again - screeching U turn or straight to defenestration?

Edited September 26, 2022 by Yellow Fever

[Well b back 3,203]

1 hour ago, sonyc said:

It has to intervene I think.

Money talks but international markets are shouting and screaming. The talk is that we've gone mad. 

Many posters here have been right. Same with Brexit. Getting to see what taking back control means now!

It could be the start of the end for Truss barely two weeks into her premiership. Her authority must be shredded.

 

I just heard the previous BOE person say that it would be unlikely for the BOE to intervene now as to the markets it would look complete panic and could make things worse. Possibly 1.04 was rock bottom as now back to 1.06.

Of course they will say the Euro is sliding against the dollar as well, but they will forget to tell you the pound is also sliding against the Euro.