New Tory Leader

[Herman 9,717]

21 minutes ago, Indy said:

Trouble is Herman he and his mates have already done massive  damage to this country, it’ll take someone very special to rectify this. Hopefully we might get an early election while the country wakes up to train wreck that is this government. 

I feared that the country would have to hit rock bottom before the spell of Boris Johnson and his tawdry government would get broken. We're not there yet thank God, but we are very close and the Johnson magic is evaporating quicker than I thought. Mostly self inflicted.

[Well b back 3,190]

All started with a bit of wallpaper.

[Herman 9,717]

This. All he to do was take it on the chin and nobody would've paid attention. Hubris.

 

[sonyc 5,492]

1 hour ago, Indy said:

Trouble is Herman he and his mates have already done massive  damage to this country, it’ll take someone very special to rectify this. Hopefully we might get an early election while the country wakes up to train wreck that is this government. 

Spot on. Huge damage caused to our reputation and attack on what I believe to be our  national values (imo) let alone quite shocking policies that ought to be considered  shameful in the minds of most decent people. (immigration, attacks on legal profession, human rights, rights to protest) and that is before you even consider Johnson and his behaviours.

But ....we have to take stock and celebrate - the British public in this by-election and the LD (and Labour) candidates. A seat held for 200 years. 

Goodbye Johnson. We know that these kind of results are what will turn the Tory Party against him (even more than his lies). No wonder Sunak has decided to be away, very useful in his timing. 

A result which just provides a tiny bit of hope when all has been so dark for a good two years.

Edited December 17, 2021 by sonyc

[Herman 9,717]

Nice to be able to listen to the Today programme for a change. 😀

[sonyc 5,492]

9 minutes ago, Herman said:

Nice to be able to listen to the Today programme for a change. 😀

Absolutely. But only for a few minutes. I gave up years ago and switched to R3. Incredibly I was persuaded to do that by a certain Quentin Letts, journalist to the right wing press who made the decision. I have learned much more listening to R3 and not just classical music. Life has definitely been enriched.

As for Today, it has never been the same since Brian Redhead. He was a proper journalist, independent- minded. The media is now so polarised. Our parliament process is rather dated, an anachronism. 

In so many ways, we need a whole different way of doing our politics and maybe the media would follow. 

Edited December 17, 2021 by sonyc

[BigFish 1,986]

23 hours ago, BigFish said:

Massive fall in turnout and a Tory majority in the low thousands. A very low Labour vote will promote a great deal of whataboutery from the Tories on how badly Stramer did.

For a bit of fun based on nothing much more than gut feeling how about this?

1. Turnout down from 67% to 33%
2. Swing Con to Lib Dem 21%
3. Swing Labour to Lib Dem 25%
4. Majority fall from 22,949 to 2,812
5. Con 14,178 (50.2%), LD 11,366 (40.2%), Labour 1,248 (4.4%), Green 850 (3.2%) Others 571 (2%)
6. Johnson - "look at Labour, lost 17% of their vote and were nearly beaten by the Greens"

Wow, underestimated the turn out and swing, indicates that rather than sit on their hands Dyed in the wool Tory voters went out and voted LibDem, in a rural remain constituency.

Got one thing right though, just heard on the Today programme Oliver Dowden pointing out how poorly the Labour did.

[Creative Midfielder 1,985]

2 minutes ago, sonyc said:

Absolutely. But only for a few minutes. I gave up years ago and switched to R3. Incredibly I was persuaded to do that by a certain Quentin Letts, journalist to the right wing press who made the decision. I have learned much more listening to R3 and not just classical music. Life has definitely been enriched.

As for Today, it has never been the same since Brian Redhead. He was a proper journalist, independent- minded. The media is now so polarised. Our parliament process is rather dated, an anachronism. 

In so many ways, we need a whole different way of doing our politics and maybe the media would follow. 

^ This.

Like you, I gave up listening to Today a long while ago but I seem to have missed the trick of switching to Radio 3 - maybe I should give that a try 😊

[Mr Apples 1,317]

6 minutes ago, BigFish said:

Got one thing right though, just heard on the Today programme Oliver Dowden pointing out how poorly the Labour did

That's good enough for me, Nostradamus. 🤭🤣

Apple

[Herman 9,717]

11 minutes ago, sonyc said:

Absolutely. But only for a few minutes. I gave up years ago and switched to R3. Incredibly I was persuaded to do that by a certain Quentin Letts, journalist to the right wing press who made the decision. I have learned much more listening to R3 and not just classical music. Life has definitely been enriched.

As for Today, it has never been the same since Brian Redhead. He was a proper journalist, independent- minded. The media is now so polarised. Our parliament process is rather dated, an anachronism. 

In so many ways, we need a whole different way of doing our politics and maybe the media would follow. 

I didn't account for Oliver Dowden. I lasted 10 minutes and the swearing started. 😡

[ricardo 7,349]

Rishi Sunak       9/4

Liz Truss           5/1

Next PM odds

[Daz Sparks 1,151]

7 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Rishi Sunak       9/4

Liz Truss           5/1

Next PM odds

So you think Boris is toast now Ricardo?

[cambridgeshire canary 6,680]

31 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Rishi Sunak       9/4

Liz Truss           5/1

Next PM odds

Scenes when the Tories elect the first non white PM before Labour

[ricardo 7,349]

21 minutes ago, Daz Sparks said:

So you think Boris is toast now Ricardo?

Dr Who will regenerate, its just a matter of when. Can't  see him getting to next election.

[Yellow Fever 3,749]

37 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Rishi Sunak       9/4

Liz Truss           5/1

Next PM odds

None of the above ?

[ricardo 7,349]

14 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

None of the above ?

Only if you can see Boris still in place at the next election. If so then Keir Starmer at 15/2 is a good bet.

Hard to see that scenario playing out. 

Gove and Hunt 12/1  ?????? Seems unlikely

Dark Horse ???? Can't  see any at the moment

Edited December 17, 2021 by ricardo

[sonyc 5,492]

1 hour ago, Creative Midfielder said:

^ This.

Like you, I gave up listening to Today a long while ago but I seem to have missed the trick of switching to Radio 3 - maybe I should give that a try 😊

No reactions left to give this morning. But come on over! I'm not a R4 critic, on the whole it's brilliant, just not Today which has been in the grips of a tight kind of editorial control for years I believe. Lots of listeners have left I have read.

It does take a while to attune your mind to music rather than words and even get used to the scheduling. Yet, there are many 'hidden treasures' really. I've learnt about many new musical genres I would normally be closed off to.

It's important for someone like me - as I age - to keep learning new stuff. Otherwise (I've always sensed it anyway) you might just get stuck inside your usual echo chamber. It's clear too that there are many - much older people than me - who stay young in their minds. Music is a massive part of that.

You can tell I've been reading John Berger again  😄🤣...Music reaches forward. It is made sometime in the past but remains alive of course and is with you in the present. There is no voice with an agenda like a politician...not that music is without agenda of course! I would love to have a discussion about Berger's views on the circular nature of time but I fear it's not for here🙂

 

Edited December 17, 2021 by sonyc

[Rock The Boat 1,326]

On 16/12/2021 at 07:19, Herman said:

 

Kinda proves my point that simply drawn, primary coloured cartoons of one dimensional characters with dorky voices are used as dumbed down propaganda tools, infantalising serious discourse and removing both nuance and substance. The result is clowns in power. 

[Rock The Boat 1,326]

On 16/12/2021 at 08:42, BigFish said:

Massive fall in turnout and a Tory majority in the low thousands. A very low Labour vote will promote a great deal of whataboutery from the Tories on how badly Stramer did.

For a bit of fun based on nothing much more than gut feeling how about this?

1. Turnout down from 67% to 33%
2. Swing Con to Lib Dem 21%
3. Swing Labour to Lib Dem 25%
4. Majority fall from 22,949 to 2,812
5. Con 14,178 (50.2%), LD 11,366 (40.2%), Labour 1,248 (4.4%), Green 850 (3.2%) Others 571 (2%)
6. Johnson - "look at Labour, lost 17% of their vote and were nearly beaten by the Greens"

Well done, BF, that was a pretty good prediction, with the actual result a bit better/wise than that. 

Johnson was elected to get the job done but since catching covid he has blundered from disaster to catastrophe all of his own making. 

No one will step into the mess while Omicron is raging but a poor local election result in May and he will be spending more time with his family. 

No joy for Labour though. The voters trust the Lib Dems more than they trust Starmer and his crew. Labour still have to go through the cleansing process that all the other parties have done post-Brexit. 

Next year we will have the first BAME PM in our history. After two women PMs, the Conservatives are the true progressive party of the UK, and PM Rishi will lead them to victory in the next General Election. 

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

19 minutes ago, Rock The Boat said:

Well done, BF, that was a pretty good prediction, with the actual result a bit better/wise than that. 

Johnson was elected to get the job done but since catching covid he has blundered from disaster to catastrophe all of his own making. 

No one will step into the mess while Omicron is raging but a poor local election result in May and he will be spending more time with his family. 

No joy for Labour though. The voters trust the Lib Dems more than they trust Starmer and his crew. Labour still have to go through the cleansing process that all the other parties have done post-Brexit. 

Next year we will have the first BAME PM in our history. After two women PMs, the Conservatives are the true progressive party of the UK, and PM Rishi will lead them to victory in the next General Election. 

Great deal of joy for Labour. They need the LibDems to win seats they will never win. Every Tory seat lost is a victory for them at the moment. Of course their share went down. The floaters went to the LibDems. Maybe even some of the Labour voters decided that there was only one way to hurt them.

And the white males have not exactly been good for the Tories have they. Even JC ran them close.

[Rock The Boat 1,326]

3 minutes ago, keelansgrandad said:

Great deal of joy for Labour. They need the LibDems to win seats they will never win. Every Tory seat lost is a victory for them at the moment. Of course their share went down. The floaters went to the LibDems. Maybe even some of the Labour voters decided that there was only one way to hurt them.

And the white males have not exactly been good for the Tories have they. Even JC ran them close.

There was certainly a lot of anti-Johnson tactical voting yesterday. Even the low turnout was sending a message to the Tories that the Tory vote is not guaranteed. Though, I suspect even the LibDems didn't expect to win as big as they did. When it comes to Labour I'm not sure where they can do well. Obviously, the will hold up well in their current constituencies but they are going to find themselves in a three-day fight for the rest as, if this result is repeated, then the LibDems become serious contenders. Amazing for a party who were down on the canvas. 

I think the May local elections will be a big marker for the GE. Johnson has until then to turn it around. Covid will be a diminishing threat by then so he could turn it around but I think his problems go far deeper than covid management. LibDems need to play safe and not mess it up and it looks promising for them, Labour still have to sort out their identity. While Labour activists know what Labour stands for, I think the rest of the country are still unsure of what Labour they will be getting, and eventually the Labour leadership is going to have to address this. 

[BigFish 1,986]

 

[1902 1,167]

20 minutes ago, Rock The Boat said:

There was certainly a lot of anti-Johnson tactical voting yesterday. Even the low turnout was sending a message to the Tories that the Tory vote is not guaranteed. Though, I suspect even the LibDems didn't expect to win as big as they did. When it comes to Labour I'm not sure where they can do well. Obviously, the will hold up well in their current constituencies but they are going to find themselves in a three-day fight for the rest as, if this result is repeated, then the LibDems become serious contenders. Amazing for a party who were down on the canvas. 

I think the May local elections will be a big marker for the GE. Johnson has until then to turn it around. Covid will be a diminishing threat by then so he could turn it around but I think his problems go far deeper than covid management. LibDems need to play safe and not mess it up and it looks promising for them, Labour still have to sort out their identity. While Labour activists know what Labour stands for, I think the rest of the country are still unsure of what Labour they will be getting, and eventually the Labour leadership is going to have to address this. 

The lib dems have a long and glorious history of beating incumbents in bye elections by presenting themselves as the least divisive other option, that also worked in general elections until the coalition. I don't see it coming back quite yet. 

The key field for the lib dems for me is the SW, that heartland had slipped so far from their grasp but they have been winning back councils recently. Without them competing there though it is very hard for Labour to become the largest party as its essentially an uncontested 25 seats in an area that was once filled with battlegrounds. 

[RobJames 880]

21 hours ago, RobJames said:

I predict a Libdem win. Labour doing the best to keep Johnson as PM. He is boosting Labours electoral chances. Better than anything Starmer is doing. Whatever the result Ricardo will support Johnson. Swindo will produce evidence that Deform/Declaim actually won.

Johnson cannot change. His career has been built on lies and corruption. This has masked his lazy and incompetent attitude. He will be gone sooner, rather than later.

Edited December 17, 2021 by RobJames

[BigFish 1,986]

13 minutes ago, 1902 said:

The lib dems have a long and glorious history of beating incumbents in bye elections by presenting themselves as the least divisive other option, that also worked in general elections until the coalition. I don't see it coming back quite yet. 

The key field for the lib dems for me is the SW, that heartland had slipped so far from their grasp but they have been winning back councils recently. Without them competing there though it is very hard for Labour to become the largest party as its essentially an uncontested 25 seats in an area that was once filled with battlegrounds. 

Only 3 of the LibDems top 20 target seats are in the South West, as opposed to 7 in the South East and 4 in London. The list does contradict the idea that a resurgance in the LibDems is in someway bad for Labour, 18 of the 20 are Tory held.

[Well b back 3,190]

One more strike and he’s out lol, maybe your time Mr Dominic Cummings.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-shropshire-59693102

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

1 hour ago, Rock The Boat said:

There was certainly a lot of anti-Johnson tactical voting yesterday. Even the low turnout was sending a message to the Tories that the Tory vote is not guaranteed. Though, I suspect even the LibDems didn't expect to win as big as they did. When it comes to Labour I'm not sure where they can do well. Obviously, the will hold up well in their current constituencies but they are going to find themselves in a three-day fight for the rest as, if this result is repeated, then the LibDems become serious contenders. Amazing for a party who were down on the canvas. 

I think the May local elections will be a big marker for the GE. Johnson has until then to turn it around. Covid will be a diminishing threat by then so he could turn it around but I think his problems go far deeper than covid management. LibDems need to play safe and not mess it up and it looks promising for them, Labour still have to sort out their identity. While Labour activists know what Labour stands for, I think the rest of the country are still unsure of what Labour they will be getting, and eventually the Labour leadership is going to have to address this. 

But we don't understand what Labour is for and I was a member. By bringing back Yvette Cooper and David Lammy, SKS has signalled his centrist ideology. Fine if you want to attract floaters but New Labour had its time but you need proper Labour when in times of problems and hardship. That is why JC messed up over Brexit.

[Yellow Fever 3,749]

The Bitter Fruits of Brexit.

The Tory's did a deal with the devil and now they are reaping what they've sown.

[RobJames 880]

Johnson was always going to be 'found out' there is far less to him than meets the eye. Last night's QT showed an audience universally against him, and by default, the Tories. Johnson messed up as an MP, as Mayor and as Foreign Secretary. Even sacked prior to those, when a journalist. His was one of lying. Making promises. Saying whatever came into his head. Irrespective of any thought that those promises could be carried through. Many UK voters have been lied to. Because they wanted to. It will take a while yet before they are able to hear the truth

[1902 1,167]

44 minutes ago, BigFish said:

Only 3 of the LibDems top 20 target seats are in the South West, as opposed to 7 in the South East and 4 in London. The list does contradict the idea that a resurgance in the LibDems is in someway bad for Labour, 18 of the 20 are Tory held.

That's true now, but the SW is an area where they previously held a big chunk of their seats. Its also an area with strong Liberal Democrat local parties. This is the list of Lib Dem councils; its a real mix of SE, SW and outer London seats but my point is that whereas they have been making strides in those SE seats, they need to make more progress in the SW  to grow and Labour need them to do the same.

Bath and North East Somerset
Bedford Borough Council (via elected Executive Mayor)
Chelmsford City Council
Cheltenham Borough Council
Cotswold District Council
Eastbourne Borough Council
Eastleigh Borough Council
Hinckley and Bosworth District Council 
Kingston upon Thames
Mendip District Council
Mole Valley District Council
North Devon District Council
North Norfolk District Council
Oadby and Wigston Borough Council
Richmond upon Thames
St Albans City and District Council
South Cambridgeshire District Council        
South Lakeland District Council
South Somerset District Council
Somerset West and Taunton Council
Sutton London Borough Council
Teignbridge District Council    
Three Rivers District Council
Vale of White Horse District Council
Watford Borough Council
Winchester City Council