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BigFish

New LibDem Leader

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Voting for this closes next week and it almost seems forgotton in the shadow of the UK's cluster**** government, Covid failures, exam disasters, crisis in HE, cronyism, ERG rapist allegations and the unfolding non-delivery of Brexit promises.

Why does this matter? Well it falls to the myth of Labour's failure in the "Red Wall". Supposedly Labour support collapsed in these seats due to neglect and Johnson's special empathy. Turns out this is completely false. In the 50 seats in question the Labour vote fell by only 30,000, remaining at 39%. The reason the seats were lost was the LD vote fell by 300,000 and the Conservative vote rose by 300,000. Go figure.

If the LibDems can get their act together, put the coalition and Brexit behind them every vote they gain will eat away at Johnson's majority. The sooner they get sorted the sooner the Tories in-built advantage in a FPTP system will unwind.

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Posted (edited)
25 minutes ago, BigFish said:

Voting for this closes next week and it almost seems forgotton in the shadow of the UK's cluster**** government, Covid failures, exam disasters, crisis in HE, cronyism, ERG rapist allegations and the unfolding non-delivery of Brexit promises.

Why does this matter? Well it falls to the myth of Labour's failure in the "Red Wall". Supposedly Labour support collapsed in these seats due to neglect and Johnson's special empathy. Turns out this is completely false. In the 50 seats in question the Labour vote fell by only 30,000, remaining at 39%. The reason the seats were lost was the LD vote fell by 300,000 and the Conservative vote rose by 300,000. Go figure.

If the LibDems can get their act together, put the coalition and Brexit behind them every vote they gain will eat away at Johnson's majority. The sooner they get sorted the sooner the Tories in-built advantage in a FPTP system will unwind.

I wish them well - but there may have been a lot of churn in LD vote splitting various ways. Corbyn I'm sure was a turn off for many but many LD voters may have lent him him their vote as well as the lesser of two evils.

It seems to me there are 300K old LD voters for Starmer to (re) capture!

Edited by Yellow Fever
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Davey has that Coalition millstone around his neck, like Swinson, and although a nice bloke, it is a stick that will be used against him.

Moran I know little about. An intelligent and qualified person and comes out with the odd sensible point but other than that we'll have to see. If she is as politically naive as Swinson then she won't last long.

The LibDems could attract the sane tory voters but as YF says could lose a lot of voters to the new improved Labour under Starmer. It will be interesting to see where they position themselves with a new leader.

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On 20/08/2020 at 16:39, Yellow Fever said:

I wish them well - but there may have been a lot of churn in LD vote splitting various ways. Corbyn I'm sure was a turn off for many but many LD voters may have lent him him their vote as well as the lesser of two evils.

It seems to me there are 300K old LD voters for Starmer to (re) capture!

I think it would be a massive mistake if Starmer viewed things that way and I very much hope he doesn't - despite his very good start which I hope will continue, Labour have got no hope of winning the next GE under the FPTP system unless they abandon their longstanding stupidity of standing a candidate in every seat.

Their only possible path to victory is some sort of the agreement with the SNP, Greens and probably Lib Dems as well. Starmer has, I think, given some tentative indications that he understands this but no doubt feels he has to get his feet under the table and establish some real credibility as party leader before he takes on some of the dinosaurs in the Labour Party and forces them to accept a strategy that allows them to win.

Better still would be if the price of that agreements was to replace FPTP with a proper voting system - we can then forget about seeing another Tory government for the forseeable future 😀

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29 minutes ago, Creative Midfielder said:

I think it would be a massive mistake if Starmer viewed things that way and I very much hope he doesn't - despite his very good start which I hope will continue, Labour have got no hope of winning the next GE under the FPTP system unless they abandon their longstanding stupidity of standing a candidate in every seat.

Their only possible path to victory is some sort of the agreement with the SNP, Greens and probably Lib Dems as well. Starmer has, I think, given some tentative indications that he understands this but no doubt feels he has to get his feet under the table and establish some real credibility as party leader before he takes on some of the dinosaurs in the Labour Party and forces them to accept a strategy that allows them to win.

Better still would be if the price of that agreements was to replace FPTP with a proper voting system - we can then forget about seeing another Tory government for the forseeable future 😀

In part this is what makes the LD choice important. Moran will play to the left and be more open to working with Starmer. Davey still carries the coalition baggage. The 300k votes that @Yellow fever refers to are in Red Wall seats so persuading them to Labour is the way forward. Of the 29 seats that the LD could win with a 10% swing, 26 are held by the Tories. Tactical voting is there for the taking and PR would/should surely follow.

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Our problems stem from an antiquated model. PR isn't far enough for me, I've said before we should go full Swiss.

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On 22/08/2020 at 10:41, TheGunnShow said:

Our problems stem from an antiquated model. PR isn't far enough for me, I've said before we should go full Swiss.

For those unfamiliar with the Swiss system then have a read from .............................types of elections

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voting_in_Switzerland

it is such a shambles that voting turnout is frequently low, and the method varies from canton to canton - for those unwilling to scroll through all the confusing guff I can give you are simplified version

 

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5 hours ago, Bill said:

For those unfamiliar with the Swiss system then have a read from .............................types of elections

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voting_in_Switzerland

it is such a shambles that voting turnout is frequently low, and the method varies from canton to canton - for those unwilling to scroll through all the confusing guff I can give you are simplified version

 

Except the main reason why turnout is relatively low is that in Switzerland there are usually three to four referendums per year, so people regularly get an opportunity to discharge their duties, so the idea that it is chaotic is purely a strawman. Quite the opposite, in fact.

The only shambles is the UK model, where tactical voting supercedes any semblance of democracy as the spoiler effect kicks in, so many people vote more against what they don't want instead of choosing what they actually do. The fact that most countries nowadays use some form of PR (and indeed pretty much the rest of Europe) should make clear how useless and antiquated it is.

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I give you

National Council

" Rules for the National Council are made federally. If a canton has two or more seats in the National Council, a so-called proportional representation takes place. The ballot has as many lists as candidates are running. A number of citizens which is depending on the number of seats to be elected can propose a list. Most of these lists are proposed by parties, but any citizens can run for election. Voters can either use a ready-made party ballot or a clear ballot. On both they can write in every candidate up to two times, and they can write in candidates of other lists. If they choose to leave some lines empty, they can give all the empty lines to one party, which constitutes a so-called party vote. For example, a voter can use the Social Democratic ballot with the candidates A, B and C but choose to strike B and C and write-in D from the Greens. A will get a candidate vote as well as D, and the Social Democrats will gain 2 votes over all and the Green 1. Party votes and votes given to a single candidate (so-called candidate votes) are added and compose the number of votes for the list. If a list wins one or more seats, the candidates with the highest number of candidate votes wins. Lists can join each other in an apparentment and sub-apparentments. For example, if the Social Democratic Party chooses to run with two lists, they can form a sub-apparentment. This sub-apparentment can then join an apparentment with the Green Party. In the voting outcome, they are first treated as one list - seats are given to the apparentment depending on how many votes it has got as a whole. As the voting outcome is calculated based on the Hagenbach-Bischoff system, the last seat in every canton goes to the list or apparentment with the highest number of not regarded votes for the ordinarily given seats, which leads to the possible outcome, that an apparentment has a higher number of not-regarded votes. For example, on the National Council elections 2007 in the Canton of Jura, the parties received the following percentage of votes (sub-apparentments are already calculated

Two seats were to be elected. Prior to the election, they were held by the Social Democrats and the Christian Democratic Party. The Liberals and the People's Party had made an apparentment. Together, they gained 27.1% which was 2.1% more than the Christian Democratic Party. The second seat went to the People's Party although they received fewer votes than the Christian Democratic Party. Cantons with only one representative such as Nidwalden elect them via majority vote."

 

None of that nonsense nor PRs absurdity will provide for a more unformed and engaged populace, which is where the real problem lies

PR simply leads to parties like the DUP having the balance of power, leading to 'bribery' to keep them onside - and dumping policy as with the Libdems 2010

You don't improve a pigs health by changing the scales you weigh it with

 

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25 minutes ago, Van wink said:

Hermy just about to be announced

So Davey it is then, if I was a LibDem would find this a tad disappointing as this would seem the leave them as a centre right party. Starmer must be pleased as it gives Labour a free hit at the centre left voters while at the same time giving moderate Tories across the South of England and nice safe home at the GE.

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Posted (edited)
40 minutes ago, BigFish said:

So Davey it is then, if I was a LibDem would find this a tad disappointing as this would seem the leave them as a centre right party. Starmer must be pleased as it gives Labour a free hit at the centre left voters while at the same time giving moderate Tories across the South of England and nice safe home at the GE.

Don't know about centre left/right but Davey is probably far more attractive to 'Tory' voters - the obvious disgruntled low hanging fruit and looking for a new home after the Johnson fiasco. No point being another Starmer. I wonder how many of them today would in-fact vote for 'Anybody but Johnson"?

Edited by Yellow Fever

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1 hour ago, Van wink said:

Hermy just about to be announced

You have found the thing that would make them even more unelectable. 

Davey? White sliced cheese sandwich. 

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1 hour ago, Herman said:

You have found the thing that would make them even more unelectable. 

That would be an achievement 😉

 

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2 hours ago, Yellow Fever said:

Don't know about centre left/right but Davey is probably far more attractive to 'Tory' voters - the obvious disgruntled low hanging fruit and looking for a new home after the Johnson fiasco. No point being another Starmer. I wonder how many of them today would in-fact vote for 'Anybody but Johnson"?

I suspect the numbers will only increase after the coming fiasco at the end of the transition period. Will make the May elections very challenging for Johnson/Cummings.

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7 minutes ago, BigFish said:

I suspect the numbers will only increase after the coming fiasco at the end of the transition period. Will make the May elections very challenging for Johnson/Cummings.

They’ll be cancelled 😉

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4 minutes ago, Van wink said:

They’ll be cancelled 😉

Well that is plausible considering the personality of this government however 2020's elections and all the bye-elections that have been stacking up since puts the countries democracy in a very dodgy position.

Saving grace is I don't think Sturgeon will let them get away with it in Scotland.

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The Lib-Dums not so progressive after all, ditching the pansexual female of Syrian ancestry for a straight white knight of the realm 🙃

Seriously though, a meaningless victory for a meaningless politician who will lead a meaningless party.

Arise, Sir Potato Head...

ae6a5cae-c022-4703-aa9d-dd8238449c95-0c6c2a5d-8239-449d-b9fa-f978f19c2f2e

 

😀

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14 hours ago, Jools said:

Seriously though, a meaningless victory for a meaningless politician who will lead a meaningless party.

If you were looking for a meaningless politician your Avatar might be a start. Out of work, unable to get elected anywhere and desparate for attention.

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2 hours ago, BigFish said:

If you were looking for a meaningless politician your Avatar might be a start. Out of work, unable to get elected anywhere and desparate for attention.

At yet he has been the most successful and significant politician this century without even getting into Parliament

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1 hour ago, Rock The Boat said:

At yet he has been the most successful and significant politician this century without even getting into Parliament

Politician? To be a politician you need to engage in politics rather than demogogary. He may well have created the atmosphere for a Leave vote in a referendum but he is playing no part in the future direction of the country. As such he will largely be a forgotton footnote when the histories of this period are written.

The high water mark of Brexitism is the 31st December 2020, after that the position will unwind when faced with reality. It will be time for the grown-ups to pick up the pieces.

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