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Bill

Who is coming down with us - prediction

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7 minutes ago, Dr Greenthumb said:

West Brom won’t be that good (should they fail to go up). The team has a few loans and the squad is thin.

They also face a drop in parachute payments from £34m 19/20

to £19m next season, if they don't go up

which would mean they would be reluctant to sign player contracts that would not be affordable if they don't go up after next season

that is the fate that has befallen so many ex PL clubs, one we are trying to avoid

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I think the entire Championship is going to be thin gruel with all the loss of revenue crimping teams that have taken on expensive and loan players wanting to divest themselves next year. 

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10 hours ago, Bill said:

They also face a drop in parachute payments from £34m 19/20

to £19m next season, if they don't go up

which would mean they would be reluctant to sign player contracts that would not be affordable if they don't go up after next season

that is the fate that has befallen so many ex PL clubs, one we are trying to avoid

I’d imagine the Gibbs and Livermore’s of the world will eat that up

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Bournemouth v S'oton with the former needing a win to have any chance of staying up

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29 minutes ago, Bill said:

Bournemouth v S'oton with the former needing a win to have any chance of staying up

they are one down at half time

which would almost certainly see then relegated if it stayed that way

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On 16/07/2020 at 22:42, Bill said:

Predict the two - and a bonus if you get their finishing points total

to help

B'mouth v S'ton and Everton

WHU v Watford, Man Utd, Villa

Villa v Arsenal, WHU

Watford v  WHU, Man City, Arsenal

https://www.theguardianm/football/premierleague/table

down

  • Watford 34
  • Villa 34ps

err, could I add Bournemouth 🙄

 

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Villa still have a squeak home to Arsenal who have an FA cup final on their minds and away to an already safe West Ham , tough but not impossible.

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18 minutes ago, City 101 said:

Villa still have a squeak home to Arsenal who have an FA cup final on their minds and away to an already safe West Ham , tough but not impossible.

Watford also have Arsenal so both being equal

it comes down to Villa beating WHU and Watford losing to Man City

and at some point Villa need to make up a 4 goal difference

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I would have thought Arsenal are more likely to field a weakened team against Watford one week before the cup final than against Villa. In any event Arsenal look bloody impressive under Arteta and are easily capable of beating both with a second XI. Watford in the driving seat, Villa down unless £150m worth can pull the cat out the bag.

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Bournemouth and Villa to go down with us. As counter-intuitive as it sounds, I'd rather be in our shoes than theirs. After all, financially Bournemouth could be hurting a bit with some of their expensive players. Can't see Ake hanging around, or indeed Callum Wilson either. On top of that, will they have been so advanced in planning for next season if they drop?

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8 minutes ago, TheGunnShow said:

Bournemouth and Villa to go down with us. As counter-intuitive as it sounds, I'd rather be in our shoes than theirs. After all, financially Bournemouth could be hurting a bit with some of their expensive players. Can't see Ake hanging around, or indeed Callum Wilson either. On top of that, will they have been so advanced in planning for next season if they drop?

June 2019 B'mouth had a net debt of £76m still owed on transfer payments

I would doubt if that has been lowered too much - so how will they fund those payments in they are relegated, just as with their [;ayer contracts ?

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3 minutes ago, Bill said:

June 2019 B'mouth had a net debt of £76m still owed on transfer payments

I would doubt if that has been lowered too much - so how will they fund those payments in they are relegated, just as with their [;ayer contracts ?

Not much is known about their owner, at least when it comes to his wealth.

https://www.thebreaker.co.uk/afc-bournemouth-vulnerable-if-premier-league-season-cancelled-due-to-covid-19/#:~:text=Broadcasting revenue accounted for £,year (£131.1 million).

This looks pretty sobering as well when looking at their accounts. Could be a case of parachute payments covering a few holes. Ake is definitely a saleable asset, as would be Wilson and probably Lerma. As the piece says, it didn't include the sales of Mings and Mousset though, which would be a fair few million at once!

https://www.fourfourtwo.com/news/bournemouth-accounts-show-loss-ps324million-after-tax

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Sad to say I think Villa will beat West Ham as they are safe and will pip Watford in staying up! But like others if Bournemouth and Villa come down they both could well follow Hull as they die into the third division!

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Put simply B'mouth will suffer around a drop of £50m in income next season

Therefore they will need to make cuts in their current outgoings by that amount.....reduce the wage bill and raise money be selling players.

However player sales will be determined by whether anyone will take on/or increase their current contracts.

Fine if you are selling the likes of Madison, Aarons, Lewis etc, where the player has probably a lower worth contract, but a greater potential (their age). Not so good if the player is in his late 20's with a long term hefty PL contract (Naismith).

That high level of liabilities can be continued into the following year(s) - which is what cripples clubs, as they have to allocate so much of their income to meeting these liabilities,

Take a look at why there are so many ex PL clubs in the sht - committed (surely, 'hambition') to outgoings that were never going to be sustainable outside of the PL

It is not complicated, so I wonder what the motivation is of those who try to make it so.

 

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56 minutes ago, Indy said:

Sad to say I think Villa will beat West Ham as they are safe and will pip Watford in staying up! But like others if Bournemouth and Villa come down they both could well follow Hull as they die into the third division!

Not sure there...Villa have the richest owners of everyone in the mix

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15 minutes ago, GJL Mid-Norfolk Canary said:

Not sure there...Villa have the richest owners of everyone in the mix

That might be the case, but they still need to abide by the FFP in the EFL, not sure how this will effect them?

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My heart says that I want Villa to come down with us, just to help with the argument about spending money etc, but my head says that I'd rather Watford as I would fear them less in the Championship.

If we assume that The Prem is an example of "guided evolution" I would expect a scenario of Arsenal beating Watford and drawing with Villa, leaving Villa to snatch a dramatic 95th minute winner against a West Ham who are already on the beach. That way the Prem "Overlords" will have their dream of Villa and Leeds in the Prem and 3 annoying little clubs back in the Championship.

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I have no time for Villa (and their self important fans) but even less for Watford and their awful owners. Hooping Villa do a job on Arsenal and then go on to stay up. Will serve Watford right!

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30 minutes ago, Capt. Pants said:

Watford will be concerned about goal difference now. Concede another 2 or 3 2nd half....

spot on

great to be on the sidelines watching 😃

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I'm hoping at some point Man City decide enough is enough for this season. They have been relentless tonight and going to take a lot of will power for our defence to avoid humiliation.

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Sacking Pearson certainly seems to have done the trick   🤪

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11 minutes ago, lake district canary said:

What an incentive for Villa, any sort of win tonight and they are out of the bottom 

Don't mind Villa really. Its Grealish and Mings that I can't stick.

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6 minutes ago, Capt. Pants said:

I'm hoping at some point Man City decide enough is enough for this season. They have been relentless tonight and going to take a lot of will power for our defence to avoid humiliation.

I'm terrified about our game against them, we've broken enough records dont want the record defeat added to it.

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3 minutes ago, Darth Canary1 said:

I'm terrified about our game against them, we've broken enough records dont want the record defeat added to it.

That concerns me more than getting into a lather about who is coming down with us Darth.

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So, time for a cuppa - then on to Villa Prk

I must say I have enjoyed this being stretched out as it is

rather like watching a trial - knowing you will have to wait until Sunday to find out the verdict and the sentence

 

"Aston Villa, you will be taken from this place to a place of exclusion... from the Premiere League

take them down"   Judge Yeenotte

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