The Brexit Thread (reprise)

[Herman 9,756]

A rather good opinion piece echoing what you think.

https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/boris-johnson-brexit-covid-lockdown-trump-biden

[Creative Midfielder 1,996]

16 minutes ago, Herman said:

A rather good opinion piece echoing what you think.

https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/boris-johnson-brexit-covid-lockdown-trump-biden

Just had a read and it is very good - I think he must be following my posts on the Pink Un 😂

But seriously, and on the assumption that there are still a few Johnson supporters out there (Swindon or BB perhaps?), I can't see anything in that analysis that anyone could honestly say was incorrect or unfair.

[How I Wrote Elastic Man 1,187]

58 minutes ago, Creative Midfielder said:

I guess statistically it is inevitable, if he hangs around long enough, that the idiot Johnson will get something right.

But listening to him still blathering and repeating complete nonsense such as 'we'll do well with an Australian style deal' definitely means that it will be accidental.

Still I'm hopeful that we won't have to listen to his drivel for too much longer - he is beginning to look a pretty lonely\exposed figure, especially now his mentor Trumpski is on his way out,  and I think the speculation about his replacement will only intensify from now on.

I'm not much of a forecaster but have thought (and said) for a long while that Johnson will be gone in the spring and if I was a betting man I would still be putting my cash on that.

According to Alexander Downer, the former Australian minister for foreign affairs, we might not even get that

[Surfer 1,547]

12 hours ago, Creative Midfielder said:

Just had a read and it is very good - I think he must be following my posts on the Pink Un 😂

But seriously, and on the assumption that there are still a few Johnson supporters out there (Swindon or BB perhaps?), I can't see anything in that analysis that anyone could honestly say was incorrect or unfair.

Yes a very good read. 

And reenforces how isolated the Conservative Party and UK is going to be early next year unless they start to rebuild political bridges across the Atlantic and local waters. Boris can’t do that - as PM he could and should, but he is completely untrustworthy - so who would it be? 

Edited November 7, 2020 by Surfer

[Creative Midfielder 1,996]

8 hours ago, Surfer said:

Yes a very good read. 

And reenforces how isolated the Conservative Party an UK is going to be early next year unless they start to rebuild political bridges across the Atlantic and local waters. Boris can’t do that - as PM he could and should, but he is completely un-trust worthy - so who would it be? 

Well until this year I never imagined that I could ever find myself saying it but when this question was first asked a few weeks ago I found the only name that seemed even remotely possible was...........Jeremy Hunt (there - I've said it 🙄) .

Ridiculous I know, but even with 364 Tory MPs to choose from I can't see any other feasible options 😀

[BigFish 1,986]

Word now seems to be that Biden's victory has prompted the penny to drop for Johnson. Time is up, his red lines can't hold and a U-turn is required. First up is the Internal Markets Bill in the Lords for third reading. Looks like all the NI clauses that break International Law will be stripped out and Johnson/Cummings will "let sleeping dogs lie" and give up on them. After that ten days for Frosty the No Man to say yes to all the EU's demands as long as Johnson is allowed to claim both victoryand January's border chaos is the EU's fault.

What price sovereignity now, with UK policy set in Brussels and Washington?

[Surfer 1,547]

Absolutely. Boris is currently playing the role of  Kaiser Bill in WW1. Caught in a pincer with Rep. Ireland in the West, the EU juggernaught in the East and America gearing up to join in too. 

A pointless conflict that has bankrupted the economy, and sacrificed national reputation on the alter of a quick a glorious victory that was a mirage. He has to make just “one last push” to claim victory or be steamrollered and then the “stabbed in the back” recriminations will begin...

 

“ EU and UK officials will resume trade talks in London later at the start of another key week for the negotiations.

They will try to bridge what the two sides have said are still significant differences on fishing quotas and competition issues.

Boris Johnson said on Sunday that the "outlines" of an agreement were clear and a deal was "there to be done".

But he has insisted the UK is prepared to leave the single market and customs union on 31 December without agreement.” 

[BigFish 1,986]

15 hours ago, Surfer said:

Absolutely. Boris is currently playing the role of  Kaiser Bill in WW1. Caught in a pincer with Rep. Ireland in the West, the EU juggernaught in the East and America gearing up to join in too. 

A pointless conflict that has bankrupted the economy, and sacrificed national reputation on the alter of a quick a glorious victory that was a mirage. He has to make just “one last push” to claim victory or be steamrollered and then the “stabbed in the back” recriminations will begin...

 

“ EU and UK officials will resume trade talks in London later at the start of another key week for the negotiations.

They will try to bridge what the two sides have said are still significant differences on fishing quotas and competition issues.

Boris Johnson said on Sunday that the "outlines" of an agreement were clear and a deal was "there to be done".

But he has insisted the UK is prepared to leave the single market and customs union on 31 December without agreement.” 

What? We are still negotiating? I thought Johnson set a deadline.

[Creative Midfielder 1,996]

4 hours ago, BigFish said:

What? We are still negotiating? I thought Johnson set a deadline.

I didn't realise we'd started negotiating - I know Johnson and Frost sometimes talk bollox in London and Frost even puts a bit of effort in and trips over to Brussels every now and then to talk bollox but actual negotiating............. don't think we've done any of that 🙄

But I do recall Johnson setting a deadline, in fact I think it was actually 3 different deadlines, all of which were passed some time ago yet still Johnson hasn't walked out - he was probably planning to do it when Trump got re-elected   😂

[Surfer 1,547]

A very good read. Our International competitors must be laughing their heads off that the UK would impose this close to fatal wound upon itself. Exactly what are Johnson, Rabb, Gove and their financial backers getting out of this? 

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-54879209

John Major: Brexit set to be 'more brutal than anyone expected'

 

Edited November 9, 2020 by Surfer

[Creative Midfielder 1,996]

On 09/11/2020 at 16:05, BigFish said:

What? We are still negotiating? I thought Johnson set a deadline.

Seems to me that as well being smarter, better prepared and holding all the negotiating cards, the other advantage that Barnier has over the UK donkeys is that he actually has a sense of perspective and also a sense of humour:

Two things Johnson, Cummings and Frost could never be accused of.

 

[BigFish 1,986]

16 hours ago, Creative Midfielder said:

Seems to me that as well being smarter, better prepared and holding all the negotiating cards, the other advantage that Barnier has over the UK donkeys is that he actually has a sense of perspective and also a sense of humour:

Two things Johnson, Cummings and Frost could never be accused of.

 

Top notch trolling from Barnier (almost Tusk like), really got to respect that.

Edited November 13, 2020 by BigFish

[Creative Midfielder 1,996]

5 hours ago, BigFish said:

Top notch trolling from Barnier (almost Tusk like), really got to respect that.

Indeed, wish we had someone of his calibre on our side but of course nobody of his calibre would be prepared to work for the sort of sh*tshow that Johnson is running at Number 10.

Still, plenty of comedy value from No 10 this week but it does rather make you worry about which barrel they are going to scrape next to find the new batch of 'special' advisers.

[Van wink 2,994]

Some sort of deal presumably more likely now that Dom has gone, BJ will compromise on the final outstanding issues.

[BigFish 1,986]

58 minutes ago, Van wink said:

Some sort of deal presumably more likely now that Dom has gone, BJ will compromise on the final outstanding issues.

You think so? Johnson is in so deep now that any sort of deal will be seen a betrayal by the Brexwits.

[sonyc 5,511]

1 hour ago, Van wink said:

Some sort of deal presumably more likely now that Dom has gone, BJ will compromise on the final outstanding issues.

I have to agree with this. I don't think the Cummings thing is purely about the 'optics'. I sense some coming together will be in the news in the next few days. It cannot be an accident Barnier is here (and walking through fields tweeting as he does) at the same time. A deal will be done. What kind though (rhetorical question).

[Yellow Fever 3,772]

I suspect its all come down  to the inevitable train wreck. The EU don't need us more then we need them and no they won't cave. Boris's cards have tumed out to be worthless and his bluff has been called. Nearly all of the Brexiteer slogans have turned out to be false. Pigs dont fly. A no deal Brexit he knows will be a disaster on top of a disaster amd he has now to make the best of a bad situation. Game over. Now how to execute a face saving exit?

Edited November 14, 2020 by Yellow Fever

[Creative Midfielder 1,996]

10 hours ago, Yellow Fever said:

I suspect its all come down  to the inevitable train wreck. The EU don't need us more then we need them and no they won't cave. Boris's cards have tumed out to be worthless and his bluff has been called. Nearly all of the Brexiteer slogans have turned out to be false. Pigs dont fly. A no deal Brexit he knows will be a disaster on top of a disaster amd he has now to make the best of a bad situation. Game over. Now how to execute a face saving exit?

I don't think there is a genuine face saving exit for Johnson because as you say pretty much everyone bar a few RWNJ Brexiteers know that he has totally screwed up and has for some time been backing himself into a corner from which there is no escape other than his umpteenth complete u-turn and acceptance of the only terms still on offer from the EU.

But I think that we can be pretty sure that his approach will be exactly the same it was a year ago over the Withdrawal Agreement - he will, at the last moment, sign up to an agreement which is even worse than ones he's turned down earlier and then claim it as a hugh success.

A few Brexiteer muppets will believe him, and the rest of us, including most businesses in the UK, will know that the inevitable train wreck, as you so rightly describe it, has finally arrived.  🙄

[sonyc 5,511]

22 minutes ago, Creative Midfielder said:

e exactly the same it was a year ago over the Withdrawal Agreement - he will, at the last moment, sign up to an agreement which is even worse than ones he's turned down earlier and then claim it as a hugh success

A very similar one no doubt that was put forward by May at Chequers a long year ago or so, when the baby Boris threw out his rattle.

Edited November 14, 2020 by sonyc

[PurpleCanary 5,557]

31 minutes ago, Creative Midfielder said:

I don't think there is a genuine face saving exit for Johnson because as you say pretty much everyone bar a few RWNJ Brexiteers know that he has totally screwed up and has for some time been backing himself into a corner from which there is no escape other than his umpteenth complete u-turn and acceptance of the only terms still on offer from the EU.

But I think that we can be pretty sure that his approach will be exactly the same it was a year ago over the Withdrawal Agreement - he will, at the last moment, sign up to an agreement which is even worse than ones he's turned down earlier and then claim it as a hugh success.

A few Brexiteer muppets will believe him, and the rest of us, including most businesses in the UK, will know that the inevitable train wreck, as you so rightly describe it, has finally arrived.  🙄

I agree with that analysis but my No-deal/Bad-deal swingometer is still stuck between the two. No revamp at Number10 will make Johnson any smarter and less likely to try to bodge something together at the last minute by way of a who-blinks-first game of chicken.

So even if he wants a deal the potential for it all going wrong is still very high, given that Johnson would have to bank on the EU and the Brexit nutjobs who actually want a No-deal both agreeing/giving way.

[Creative Midfielder 1,996]

5 minutes ago, PurpleCanary said:

I agree with that analysis but my No-deal/Bad-deal swingometer is still stuck between the two. No revamp at Number10 will make Johnson any smarter and less likely to try to bodge something together at the last minute by way of a who-blinks-first game of chicken.

So even if he wants a deal the potential for it all going wrong is still very high, given that Johnson would have to bank on the EU and the Brexit nutjobs who actually want a No-deal both agreeing/giving way.

Can't argue with any of that.

Given that nearly everything Johnson says is either just meaningless waffle or outright lies it's quite hard to guess what (If anything) he really believes and actually wants to achieve.

I suspect that, despite all the no deal nonsense he's spouted, he does probably want a deal and that his track record in government would indicate that we are now due (actually slightly overdue 😂 but perhaps the Lee Cain\Cummings situation jumped the queue) another complete u-turn.

But you are quite right that its entirely possible that he's stupid enough to plough on to No Deal, or that he actually will try for a deal at the very last minute and it will all go wrong.

[BigFish 1,986]

15 minutes ago, PurpleCanary said:

I agree with that analysis but my No-deal/Bad-deal swingometer is still stuck between the two. No revamp at Number10 will make Johnson any smarter and less likely to try to bodge something together at the last minute by way of a who-blinks-first game of chicken.

So even if he wants a deal the potential for it all going wrong is still very high, given that Johnson would have to bank on the EU and the Brexit nutjobs who actually want a No-deal both agreeing/giving way.

Occasionally see a third option, where there is no deal by the 1st Jan, resulting in the expected chaos but a deal follows in the Spring. Quite persuasive as he shoots the fox of the Brexwits who believe that the EU will fold, always makes a deal at the last moment or no deal is no problem. Probably already too late to agree a deal and implement in time for everyone to get back to work on the 2nd Jan anyway.

[Herman 9,756]

Chris Grayling/Brexit update.

 

[Van wink 2,994]

21 hours ago, BigFish said:

You think so? Johnson is in so deep now that any sort of deal will be seen a betrayal by the Brexwits.

Don’t think so BF, from what I read Sunak and Gove are now pushing for a deal, there will be some movement next week.

[Creative Midfielder 1,996]

26 minutes ago, Van wink said:

Don’t think so BF, from what I read Sunak and Gove are now pushing for a deal, there will be some movement next week.

I don't imagine that what Sunak and Gove think will have any effect on the Brexit nutters on the backbenches such Steve Baker, David Davis and Dunkin Doughnut. They will kick off big time when Johnson caves, and much as I despise him Steve Baker seems to be a far more effective organiser and motivator than anyone in the Cabinet so I wouldn't under-estimate the trouble they could cause.

[Surfer 1,547]

He'll cave. He doesn't have any choice. They are just working on the fabulous story to tell the British public.

 

[Yellow Fever 3,772]

Anybody see useless Eustice on Marr this morning trying badly to explain why 10% tariffs on cars, 30% + plus on lamb etc wouldn't cause mayhem in constituencies. A rabbit caught in the onrushing headlights if there ever was one.  I guess he's not the brightest.

The funniest comment of Eustice surely has to be - and I precis - all we want is a Canadian or Norway style deal. Did I mishear ? Listening again - must of misheard.....

No I didn't mishear.. 

Brexiteers clearly aren't the sharpest tools in the box.

 

Edited November 15, 2020 by Yellow Fever

[Creative Midfielder 1,996]

2 hours ago, Yellow Fever said:

Anybody see useless Eustice on Marr this morning trying badly to explain why 10% tariffs on cars, 30% + plus on lamb etc wouldn't cause mayhem in constituencies. A rabbit caught in the onrushing headlights if there ever was one.  I guess he's not the brightest.

The funniest comment of Eustice surely has to be - and I precis - all we want is a Canadian or Norway style deal. Did I mishear ? Listening again - must of misheard.....

No I didn't mishear.. 

Brexiteers clearly aren't the sharpest tools in the box.

No they're not, and they don't seem to have very good memories either - we were offered a Norway style deal and turned it down flat.

Bit late to whine about it now 😂

[Bill 1,788]

Meanwhile, in the real world

"UK trucks will need a permit called an ECMT to be able to operate in the EU with effect from 1.1.2021. Apparently there is a limit of 1224 permits which can be issued, which is far lower than the number of UK trucks which drive on the continent currently. According to the government website, applications for these permits need to be submitted by this Friday, after which there will be a process to select the lucky winners.........a lot of UK haulage companies will discover in December that they have not been awarded the permits they applied for. Let’s hope they haven’t already committed themselves to deliver stuff on the continent next year"

The FT has an article which highlights how much of a shi tfest is on the way, as little has been done to sort this out

https://www.ft.com/content/07b58f6f-1e56-4107-9e22-8f78967794f9

[horsefly 4,298]

4 minutes ago, Bill said:

Meanwhile, in the real world

"UK trucks will need a permit called an ECMT to be able to operate in the EU with effect from 1.1.2021. Apparently there is a limit of 1224 permits which can be issued, which is far lower than the number of UK trucks which drive on the continent currently. According to the government website, applications for these permits need to be submitted by this Friday, after which there will be a process to select the lucky winners.........a lot of UK haulage companies will discover in December that they have not been awarded the permits they applied for. Let’s hope they haven’t already committed themselves to deliver stuff on the continent next year"

The FT has an article which highlights how much of a shi tfest is on the way, as little has been done to sort this out

https://www.ft.com/content/07b58f6f-1e56-4107-9e22-8f78967794f9

Unbelievable!