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Yellow Fever

The Brexit Thread (reprise)

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1 hour ago, Bill said:

I'm not so sure that even Johnson is stupid enough to want 'no deal'

My thought is that he is stupid enough, though, to think that some kind of brinkmanship will cause the EU to rip up their rule book and accept his idiot ideas

Johnson should be judged on his track record of constant failure to deliver, costly mistakes like the garden bridge  and a long list of wrong decisions that have to be quickly corrected (u-turns)

If the real thought is that it was to be a  no deal' the lorry parks would have been started long back, as would the recruiting and training of 50,000 customs officials - bearing in mind they will all need to be in place by 1st Jan if it is to be a 'no deal'.

Yet as can be seen, there is virtually nothing, Even the software has not been fully written, never mind tested.

And no amount of piffle paffle, wiffle waffle will change any of that

 

Well I've a feeling (and have had for some time) that he may well be but I agree that arriving at no deal through stupid and naive brinkmanship is probably an equally likely route.

I'd also agree that in 'normal' times, i.e. with a partially competent government or probably even with an extremely inept administration such as Theresa May's, the lack of preparation for no deal would be a solid indication that it hasn't been Johnson's Plan A from the outset.

But we are talking about a government of never before seen (in the UK) incompetence and you say yourself what an appalling track record Johnson has in delivering everything he's touched............

So again I'd say it was a toss up whether Johnson has wanted no deal from the outset but was too incompetent to plan for it in time (errr... that has a very familiar ring to it) or whether he is stupid enough to believe some of his own lies & is only very belatedly waking up to the real world and finding out the EU doesn't need us more than we need them, and there's isn't any chance at all of us having our cake and eating it.

Anyway not sure it matters either way, he has backed himself into a blind alley and has no ideas (or time) to figure a way out. It would take another truly spectacular u-turn to avoid no deal and although Johnson has put in plenty of practice on those over the last few months I don't see him as having the balls (or the brains) to pull this one off  😂

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I think one of the guiding delusions has been the idea that if you can get a couple or so  notable victories' then that will over shadow the failure to deliver on what was promised before the referendum, and the 2019 election.

Unfortunately for him (and now us) Johnson completely misjudged how the EU is constructed and what can and can't be done. The idea that the EU could remove fishing rights where they have existed for nigh on 500 years plus was always going to be a non-starter - Just as Truss is now finding her 'victories' impossible to deliver.

Johnson is as you say in a self painted corner - with the only way I can see out is for Coronavirus infections and deaths to rise sharply so a delay in the transition period would seem the necessary and right thing.

However that would require folk to be herded back in close contact as with offices, schools, theatres, pubs etc

And I can't see that happening, can you 😏

 

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So Johnson. Let see this 'Internal Market Bill'

I guess the question will then be  -

1. Did you sign the WA agreement knowing full well that you would later break it ?

2. If not did you read and understand it before signing it ?

 

Either way you are either deceitful (we know that's true already - sacked twice for lying even to the Queen and of course the British people) or just plain incompetent?

Edited by Yellow Fever

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Robert Buckland and Suella Bravermann are under a lot of scrutiny this morning. 😂

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1 hour ago, Herman said:

Robert Buckland and Suella Bravermann are under a lot of scrutiny this morning. 😂

Question is  - 

Are we a rogue nation or just that we currently have a rogue government - that could be the title of new thread !

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1 hour ago, Herman said:

Robert Buckland and Suella Bravermann are under a lot of scrutiny this morning. 😂

Mark Francois trending today, apparently no-one was aware he had stood down as chair of the ERG. 😉

 

 

Edited by A Load of Squit
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1 hour ago, Yellow Fever said:

Question is  - 

Are we a rogue nation or just that we currently have a rogue government - that could be the title of new thread !

Rogue government at the moment. Let's see how this dreadful bill gets on. It has managed to **** off the Scots and the EU and legal profession already so it's doing what Cummings wanted. 

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29 minutes ago, Herman said:

Rogue government at the moment. Let's see how this dreadful bill gets on. It has managed to **** off the Scots and the EU and legal profession already so it's doing what Cummings wanted. 

Yes it appears Johnson's signature isn't worth the paper it's written on. Not now or ever. No change there.

I guess that 'label' will also now go with the rest of his 'Joint Enterprise' government.

If it's just a threat it's a pretty silly one but then he's been looking for excuses and others to blame for a long time. If the EU regretfully say they can't work with this and walk away in a few weeks I guess Johnson will try and blame the EU - a ploy that will only resonate with his diminishing 'base' supporters. Frankly Boris's 'oven ready' 'No Deal' looks more and more like an uncooked salmonella and e-coli infested rotting turkey. Eat it up Brexiters. What won't kill you may be good for you !

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55 minutes ago, Herman said:

Rogue government at the moment. Let's see how this dreadful bill gets on. It has managed to **** off the Scots and the EU and legal profession already so it's doing what Cummings wanted. 

I'd say rogue government at the moment but it can be a pretty small step from rogue government to rogue country and when you consider the damage that Johnson has already inflicted on the UK in just over a year the direction of travel is pretty clear..

I've been saying for a long time now (well it feels like a long time anyway 🙄) that we are heading towards a break up of the union, and Johnson seems intent on accelerating the process so I believe we are already heading towards a rogue state - England.

Ireland will be united & in the EU, Scotland independent & in the EU but not too sure where the poor old Welsh will fit into the picture.

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I'm not sure what will happen to the Welsh. As they voted for this they might be happy to tag along with the English. But I am sure the Welsh nationalists will get a lot noisier. 

Not long after writing this one of the Welsh Tories quit his post.

Edited by Herman

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1 hour ago, Herman said:

I'm not sure what will happen to the Welsh. As they voted for this they might be happy to tag along with the English. But I am sure the Welsh nationalists will get a lot noisier. 

Not long after writing this one of the Welsh Tories quit his post.

I do have some sympathy for the Welsh (strange I know! 😀) but I've read a couple of studies/analyses of the Welsh referendum and both concluded that the true 'Welsh' vote was for remain but that their result was skewed to Leave by a substantial number of Englisn incomers living close to border but on the Welsh side - so as usual the English call all the shots even in Wales which I think is certainly helping the nationlist cause.

But either way the Welsh Assembly have certainly been flexing their muscles and Johnson has managed to make them look good compared to the Westminister - mind you Johnson has made virtually ever other leader worldwide look good 😂

 

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Does anybody else struggle to recognise Johnson's so called government as a British government and not some banana Republic chaotic farce of a government in some dystopia parallel universe thst somehow landed here.

We are a laughing stock.

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I'd like to know who they are working for. It's not us.Has Putin got a load of kompromat on the brexiters as well??

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9 hours ago, A Load of Squit said:

Mark Francois trending today, apparently no-one was aware he had stood down as chair of the ERG. 😉

 

 

I was checking this and this was one of the first things I stumbled across. It could explain things.Or not.😀

 

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I can't remember who, but someone suggested this could be a likely ending. I'm not entirely sure what the aim of this idea is or was.

 

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Yes a few of us have been saying that is what Congress would do - the UK Government and Boris as a former Foreign Secretary would have known this all along, it’s not something that just came up, nor is it a Democrat only position. 

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14 hours ago, Creative Midfielder said:

I do have some sympathy for the Welsh (strange I know! 😀) but I've read a couple of studies/analyses of the Welsh referendum and both concluded that the true 'Welsh' vote was for remain but that their result was skewed to Leave by a substantial number of Englisn incomers living close to border but on the Welsh side - so as usual the English call all the shots even in Wales which I think is certainly helping the nationlist cause.

But either way the Welsh Assembly have certainly been flexing their muscles and Johnson has managed to make them look good compared to the Westminister - mind you Johnson has made virtually ever other leader worldwide look good 😂

 

I think you are referring  to this https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2019/sep/22/english-people-wales-brexit-research

In the most basic form the claim is that a lot of people living in Wales were born in England and people born in England were more likely to live in strong leave areas, especially along the border and so more likely to have voted leave. I dont think the paper tried to analyse how these people identified.

I've not read the study only the Press summary but I am not wholly convinced that blaming the immigrants is the best explanation.  Im sorry if this sounds a bit too Marxist but I suspect that the best explanation of the welsh vote is likely to be seen by ranking the 40ish constituencies by affluence and then seeing where the 10 or so remain areas are on the scale 

 

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16 hours ago, Creative Midfielder said:

I do have some sympathy for the Welsh (strange I know! 😀) but I've read a couple of studies/analyses of the Welsh referendum and both concluded that the true 'Welsh' vote was for remain but that their result was skewed to Leave by a substantial number of Englisn incomers living close to border but on the Welsh side - so as usual the English call all the shots even in Wales which I think is certainly helping the nationlist cause.

But either way the Welsh Assembly have certainly been flexing their muscles and Johnson has managed to make them look good compared to the Westminister - mind you Johnson has made virtually ever other leader worldwide look good 😂

 

 

1 hour ago, Barbe bleu said:

I think you are referring  to this https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2019/sep/22/english-people-wales-brexit-research

In the most basic form the claim is that a lot of people living in Wales were born in England and people born in England were more likely to live in strong leave areas, especially along the border and so more likely to have voted leave. I dont think the paper tried to analyse how these people identified.

I've not read the study only the Press summary but I am not wholly convinced that blaming the immigrants is the best explanation.  Im sorry if this sounds a bit too Marxist but I suspect that the best explanation of the welsh vote is likely to be seen by ranking the 40ish constituencies by affluence and then seeing where the 10 or so remain areas are on the scale 

 

Going back to Dorling's analysis it looks like you are both right. His basic argument is that Brexit was swung by affluent old people, predominently in the south - “The real support for Brexit, in terms of numbers of votes, was in places like Cornwall, which was 57% for leave, Hampshire with 54%, Essex with 62% and Norfolk with 57%. It is those southern English voters that are dragging Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland unwillingly out of Europe.

The cohort of the Welsh electorate that swung the vote was indeed a subset of this -

About 21% (650,000) of people living in Wales were born in England, with nearly a quarter aged over 65. The country voted for Brexit by a majority of just 82,000. Border towns and areas of central Wales with large English communities, such as Wrexham and Powys, recorded a higher proportion of leave votes, whereas Welsh-speaking areas such as Gwynedd and Ceredigion had high remain votes.

 

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22 hours ago, BigFish said:

 

Going back to Dorling's analysis it looks like you are both right. His basic argument is that Brexit was swung by affluent old people, predominently in the south - “The real support for Brexit, in terms of numbers of votes, was in places like Cornwall, which was 57% for leave, Hampshire with 54%, Essex with 62% and Norfolk with 57%. It is those southern English voters that are dragging Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland unwillingly out of Europe.

The cohort of the Welsh electorate that swung the vote was indeed a subset of this -

About 21% (650,000) of people living in Wales were born in England, with nearly a quarter aged over 65. The country voted for Brexit by a majority of just 82,000. Border towns and areas of central Wales with large English communities, such as Wrexham and Powys, recorded a higher proportion of leave votes, whereas Welsh-speaking areas such as Gwynedd and Ceredigion had high remain votes.

 

Yes I think that is right and I think it also helps explains why Brexit is such a profoundly divisive issue.

Of course Brexit is, of itself, a very divisive issue but the UK in 2015 already had a number of very significant divisions which I would suggest Brexit has effectively deepened further & made more bitter.

Of course it has created some new divisions as well, perhaps most notably in some nothern England traditionally Labour voting cities. But despite the attention paid to those I believe the voter numbers involved were actually quite small (although possibly critical to the Leave victory).

So I would still say that the very deep divisions which are likely to tear the Union apart were mostly pre-existing so the effect of Brexit has been much the same as chucking a drum of petrol onto an already burning bonfire.

 

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So this week all the 'dishonourable' members of parliament are going to self-identify and separate themselves publicly from the honourable ones.

Oddly this seems to go beyond political views on Brexit or anything else. Simply are you a man or woman of your word - or just some shifty duplicitous low life .

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Looks as though it wasn't just the border in the Irish Sea part of the Withdrawal agreement that Johnson lied about (or didn't understand) and which many Tory MPs omitted to read before waving it through Parliament - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-54345882

Another nail in the coffin of the Bristish car industry, not that it is really needed since it is dead in the water already but even the useless Theresa May had managed to achieve something in the Withdrawal Agreement for the industry before Johnson p*ssed it up the wall in his eagerness to sign a new and significantly worse Withdrawal agreement - gross incompetence which has since become Johnson's trademark as PM.

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Entirely predictable. What a sham brexit is and was. I've said it before but we need an angry version of schadenfreude. 

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27 minutes ago, Herman said:

Entirely predictable. What a sham brexit is and was. I've said it before but we need an angry version of schadenfreude. 

They say you get the government you deserve. I think John Crace in the Guardian summed up Boris the best, that technically he doesn't lie because he doesn't understand or even pay attention to the underlying detail, he pronounces what he wants to be true and hopes he can will it into existence. How on earth the Conservative party or even the country could elect such a chancer is beyond me.

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2 hours ago, Creative Midfielder said:

Looks as though it wasn't just the border in the Irish Sea part of the Withdrawal agreement that Johnson lied about (or didn't understand) and which many Tory MPs omitted to read before waving it through Parliament - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-54345882

Another nail in the coffin of the Bristish car industry, not that it is really needed since it is dead in the water already but even the useless Theresa May had managed to achieve something in the Withdrawal Agreement for the industry before Johnson p*ssed it up the wall in his eagerness to sign a new and significantly worse Withdrawal agreement - gross incompetence which has since become Johnson's trademark as PM.

Seems to me we need them more than they need us.

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1 hour ago, Icecream Snow said:

They say you get the government you deserve. I think John Crace in the Guardian summed up Boris the best, that technically he doesn't lie because he doesn't understand or even pay attention to the underlying detail, he pronounces what he wants to be true and hopes he can will it into existence. How on earth the Conservative party or even the country could elect such a chancer is beyond me.

Unfortunately the answer I heard a lot from my questioning of Johnson supporters was that "but all politicians lie". They persuaded themselves that his dishonesty was OK I feel. 

And after listening to PMQs I still don't see what people see in him. The jolly bumbling isn't jolly anymore. 

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3 hours ago, Yellow Fever said:

Seems to me we need them more than they need us.

Yes indeed, but who would ever have guessed that - certainly not the RWNJs & Brexiteers with the delusional belief that the UK is still the great world power that it was 150 years ago 😂

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Although I've lost count of how many complete u-turns Johnson has performed (think it's somewhere in the 20s now) there is at least one area in which he is remarkably consistent - fanning the flames of Scottish Independence, https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-54439757

I imagine Nicola Sturgeon must be hoping desperately that Johnson will manage to cling on as PM at least until next May and the elections for the Scottish Parliament, although IMO it looks increasingly likely that he'll be gone in the spring.

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1 minute ago, Creative Midfielder said:

Although I've lost count of how many complete u-turns Johnson has performed (think it's somewhere in the 20s now) there is at least one area in which he is remarkably consistent - fanning the flames of Scottish Independence, https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-54439757

I imagine Nicola Sturgeon must be hoping desperately that Johnson will manage to cling on as PM at least until next May and the elections for the Scottish Parliament, although IMO it looks increasingly likely that he'll be gone in the spring.

I think the Tories will want him to go down with the Brexity ship. Who would want to take over and inherit all the issues that will materialise next year and then be blamed for them ?

Same for Starmer, we can all see the iceberg dead ahead and its too late to avoid so pick the pieces up after the damage is done and the incumbents are all totally discredited.

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Yes that's the path for Starmer. Tell people we are about to hit an iceberg unless the Government takes immediate action, and then be in place to organize the lifeboats and rescue afterwards. He can also help head off the power grab that all authoritarian cabals try and make in a crisis. 

For the Tories, they will have to rely on their media friends to explain that it's only a small iceberg nobody could have reasonably seen, that the EU towed it into the ocean, but in any case it will melt by the Summer so everything is going to plan. Everyone should just stay in place while they sort out which officer will become Captain. Oh and tickets for the lifeboat are available for sale. 

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