The Brexit Thread (reprise)

[Bill 1,788]

"The killer line came when Vallance insisted Sage had recommended an immediate total lockdown on 16 March. A bit late in the day possibly, given the rate of infection in the UK was increasing exponentially and that dozens of other countries had already introduced lockdowns, but still a good week before Boris could be bothered to getting round to doing anything about it. But then jockey club director, Dido Harding – soon to be chief executive of the track and trace system – had wanted the Cheltenham festival to go ahead and it would have been a shame for Carrie Symonds to have had to cancel her baby shower at Chequers. So all in all, it was probably worth the 20,000 extra deaths the week’s delay entailed."

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/jul/16/tired-of-being-boris-johnsons-patsy-patrick-vallance-fights-back

any wonder fat boy's running scared of an enquiry

[Herman 9,713]

Now that trading and travel are going to be far harder and more expensive what other benefits is brexit going to bring? 

[BigFish 1,986]

2 hours ago, Herman said:

Now that trading and travel are going to be far harder and more expensive what other benefits is brexit going to bring? 

The estimated cost to the UK economy for form filling is £250 million per week.

The tangible benefits of Brexit identified so far is zero.

[Herman 9,713]

John Bercow politely kicking the crap out of Grayling and the government is a joy to watch. 

[Yellow Fever 3,747]

4 hours ago, Herman said:

Now that trading and travel are going to be far harder and more expensive what other benefits is brexit going to bring? 

You've forgot the major benefit.

Every country eventually needs a wake up  / get real call and Brexit will do that. It will teach a very harsh lesson (as it is already) in geopolitics and the UK's true position as a comparatively isolated minnow in the new world order. Easy to pick off.

It will be the kick up the backside that many of the Brexiters clearly need (Minford excepted - he told it how it was / will be) to compete in the real world - not their fantasies that somehow because we're British makes us entitled or that nothing will actually change.

Now they will all have to compete on price and quality with emerging world or go elsewhere.

[BigFish 1,986]

1 hour ago, Yellow Fever said:

You've forgot the major benefit.

Every country eventually needs a wake up  / get real call and Brexit will do that. It will teach a very harsh lesson (as it is already) in geopolitics and the UK's true position as a comparatively isolated minnow in the new world order. Easy to pick off.

It will be the kick up the backside that many of the Brexiters clearly need (Minford excepted - he told it how it was / will be) to compete in the real world - not their fantasies that somehow because we're British makes us entitled or that nothing will actually change.

Now they will all have to compete on price and quality with emerging world or go elsewhere.

It will interesting how the mood changes if (or is it when?) Trump loses the Presidential election in November. Global politics will shift and the totemic effect he has on the Little Englanders will be challenged. By that time the UK will have had ten months of being a "free and sovereign nation" probably spent in the middle of a depression.

[Bill 1,788]

Free from ......................the single market, the customs union, freedom of travel and the ECJ

nope, just 'free' from' the ability to be part of the decision making process, but not the payment requirement

The UK will not be 'free' until the transition period ends, and by then it will be a new president and a Democrat lower house if not the senate.

An administration who will be focused on rebuilding trade relations around the globe harmed by the Orange faced buffoon,

Their priorities will be the bigger trading blocs, then larger countries

The UK will be way down on that list, so it will have to be a case of accepting what the WTO tells the UK it can have

[Bill 1,788]

A damning comment on the sheer stupidity of brexit

from the Financial Times

Politicians like me,” Mr Gove said in his Ditchley annual lecture last month, “must take responsibility for the effect of their actions and the consequences of their announcements.” It’s an interesting idea, and I wonder what it means in practice. Let’s imagine a group of politicians — call them Vote Leave — promise we can leave the EU and still have “free trade with minimal bureaucracy”. Let’s imagine that, four years later, the government builds a 27-acre lorry park in Kent, for customs checks after the Brexit transition period ends in January.

Let’s imagine the government estimates that customs declarations alone will cost companies £7bn a year. That's £135m a week. This is minimal bureaucracy in the same way that Britain has a minimal coronavirus death toll. What was it Mr Gove said? “Politicians like me must take responsibility.” Yet, when asked about Brexit preparations last Sunday, he replied: “Some of the criticism has come — how can I put this? — there’s an element of Captain Hindsight.” Actually, it was Captain Foresight.

Nearly every expert predicted that leaving the single market and the customs union would require regulatory barriers and restrictions on travel. Brexiters like Mr Gove obfuscated. This week reality could be avoided no longer. The government advised people travelling to the EU next year to buy insurance, check roaming charges, and see a vet four months in advance if they want to take their pet. It also published a 206-page guide for trading goods.

As the UK in a Changing Europe think-tank puts it: “In almost all cases, Brexit will create additional financial or other cost burdens for [manufacturing] companies: tariffs, customs declarations, certification costs, audits to ensure rules of origin compliance, loss of collaboration opportunities in R&D, border delays, EU customers switching to other suppliers, visa costs for EU workers, and so on.” This isn’t Brussels red tape. It’s our own independent, world-beating red tape, which we have chosen to tie ourselves in, like a middle-aged man with a new-found leather fetish.

Just months ago, Mr Gove and Boris Johnson were promising no checks on goods between Northern Ireland and Great Britain. Now they admit that there will be checks, at least one way. Why does the prime minister's Latin never extend to the words mea culpa?

Dominic Cummings, strategist of Vote Leave and now Mr Johnson’s chief adviser, likes to recommend Philip Tetlock’s Superforecasting. I wonder if he’s read it. The book describes a taxpayer-funded contest where people are judged by their ability to predict world events. Since the Brexit campaign, the UK has run its own version. Leavers predicted that the laws of economics, geography and the EU would all change. Trade experts laughed.

Leavers also predicted a trade deal with China, Turkish membership of the EU, and no rise in support for Scottish independence. Any news? “Failures of policy and judgment have put previously existing elites in the dock,” Mr Gove said in his Ditchley speech. Enough of blaming yesterday’s politicians. Warwick University researchers have concluded that areas that voted Leave, notably the West Midlands, have suffered the biggest economic hit since the Brexit vote.

Who should residents hold responsible? I super-forecast this: in a year, Leavers still won’t have taken responsibility for the damage. “If you beat your head against the wall, it is your head that breaks and not the wall,” said Gramsci. Brexiters have spent four years beating their head against the wall and it is still standing — right next to the lorry park."

 

And when the governments own figures which are now looking quite disturbing regarding the effect it will have on UK industry, you can be sure they are not telling the full story.

"Nearly every expert predicted that leaving the single market and the customs union would require regulatory barriers and restrictions on travel. "

But, brexiteers, like their half witted cousins in the US who contracted and died of the virus because they believed people like Trump who told them it was a hoax, are now facing their reckoning, as

" areas that voted Leave, notably the West Midlands, have suffered the biggest economic hit since the Brexit vote."

And it won't be the well paid who will suffer most, but those at the bottom end of the pay scale. Those who thought voting forb the people who had caused their problems ........................ was the answer 😟

 

 

Edited July 17, 2020 by Bill

[Bill 1,788]

More from the FT

'' British companies trading with Europe will have to absorb a post-Brexit bureaucracy burden and fill in an extra 215m customs declarations at a cost of about £7bn a year, according to government officials.

The scale of the additional red tape involved in future trade with the EU was confirmed as cabinet office minister Michael Gove laid out the government’s plans to manage the UK’s borders in a 206-page document that included the admission: “Customs declarations are complicated.”

Mr Gove has not disputed industry estimates that some 50,000 new private sector customs agents will have to be hired by business to deal with formalities at the UK-EU border — regardless of whether the two sides reach a trade deal. The cabinet minister was speaking on the day the government launched an upbeat advertising campaign to prepare the country for the end of the Brexit transition deal on January 1, under the strapline: “UK’s new start — let’s get going”.

n spite of business concerns that new IT, customs experts and lorry parks will not be ready by the end of the year, Mr Gove and prime minister Boris Johnson insisted that the “Project Fear” warnings of anti-Brexit campaigners would turn out to be ill-founded. Mr Johnson claimed that the Covid-19 crisis had put the costs associated with Brexit “very much into perspective”.

Officials confirmed that the government’s most recent estimates — first published by HM Revenue & Customs in December 2018 

• extra 215m customs declaration forms for businesses importing or exporting goods
• regardless of whether Britain and the EU conclude a trade deal this year
• Only a fraction of the estimated 50,000 extra agents needed to handle the new customs forms have so far been recruited

Jon Thompson, former head of HMRC, in 2018 estimated that the cost of

• each declaration could be £32.50, but cited a range from £20 up to a possible £55.
• estimated 215m import and export declarations made by British traders would be mirrored
• by the same process by counterparties in the EU, meaning some 430m forms would have to be completed in total

Mr Gove announced £705m of extra spending for new infrastructure, jobs and technology, and the border with the EU and confirmed plans to build lorry inspection sites away from congested ports such as Dover. Officials estimate that up to a dozen may be needed

Rachel Reeves, shadow cabinet office minister, said the extra bureaucracy was “staggering”. Last week Liz Truss, international trade secretary, raised concerns with ministerial colleagues about the delay in preparing the new border. Julian Smith, former chief whip, said it was “deeply problematic and worrying” that the government was imposing additional costs on businesses that were already struggling with coronavirus. Richard Burnett, head of the Road Haulage Association, warned of a serious shortage of customs agents and expressed concern about a proposed new “Smart Freight” app, that lorry drivers will have to complete in advance before travelling to ports in Kent.

Hauliers have been promised it will be ready by the end of the year, but Mr Burnett said: “That’s not that much use to say it’s ready by the end of the year. We need to be able to ‘touch, feel and train people on the functionality for it to be working from Jan 1.” Meanwhile Dominic Goudie, head of international trade for the Food and Drink Federation, said the requirement that all fish imports and exports must have full documentation by January 1 could “hit consumers quite quickly” given that 75 per cent of UK-caught fish is exported to the EU, and about a third of fish consumed in the UK is imported from the EU.

Meanwhile, MPs criticised the government for leaving business in the dark over new customs arrangements that must operate from January between Northern Ireland and Great Britain. With business increasingly concerned about the lack of detail from the government, the House of Commons Northern Ireland affairs select committee called on ministers to set out exactly how the new regime will operate by October 1. “The government may be able to wait until the wire for clarity on customs arrangements, but business cannot,” said Simon Hoare, committee chair. “Those trading across the Irish sea have been told to prepare without knowing what to prepare for. It’s now time for them to get that clarity,”

The Brexit withdrawal treaty keeps Northern Ireland in the UK customs territory. But the region must adhere to EU customs and single market rules to avoid a hard border with the Irish republic. The UK government must clarify what new administrative requirements traders will face and reimburse business for any new costs incurred, said the committee. “The situation is now urgent, and the continued lack of detail risks Northern Ireland not being prepared for the new trading arrangements, an outcome which would have significant economic consequences,” it added.''

 

So, as this nonsense stumbles towards the cliff edge, we already know it will cost the country more than membership of the EU ever did. And the spectre of food, and vital medicine shortages is now becoming a grim reality.

There are numerous graves in the US attributed to their occupants believing Trump that the virus was a hoax. And thousands of dead in the UK who died as a result of another dyed haired 'righty' who did not think it was necessary to close the country down - or even attend meetings,

However, you can trust in whom you want - for my part it is the FT every time, over those two lying shysters

Edited July 18, 2020 by Bill

[Herman 9,713]

Fair comment.

 

[A Load of Squit 5,128]

So, Aaron Banks is trying to delay the publishing of the Russia Report.

"Curiouser and curiouser!"

 

[Herman 9,713]

28 minutes ago, A Load of Squit said:

So, Aaron Banks is trying to delay the publishing of the Russia Report.

"Curiouser and curiouser!"

 

Hmmm, interesting. Nobody has seen it bar the commitee and top level ministers. Why is he trying to stop something he clearly doesn't know what's in?🤨

 

[BigFish 1,986]

I expect it will be a massive damp squib and @Jools will be on here with a cut and paste from Guido to say I told you so. That said Johnson/Cummings have sat on it for a reason, the government lauched a big deflection campaign & Banks obviously isn't happy. So who knows.

Parliament is off on it's hols this week, politics will quieten down until September and that will suit Johnson/Cummings. Afterall the UK is in the middle of Public Health, Economic & Trade crisises. What could possibly go wrong?

[kick it off 1,948]

On 19/07/2020 at 08:25, Herman said:

Fair comment.

 

I disagree. Why shouldn't they bear responsibility for not being competent enough to research such a major decision? The failure of Brexit is on the architects but the enabling of Brexit failure is on those who were stupid enough to not see through the transparent veil. Sorry, but that reads like an ex brexiteer who knows he ****ed up but won't take any responsibility for it. There's no trap there, just deflection.

[PurpleCanary 5,554]

45 minutes ago, kick it off said:

I disagree. Why shouldn't they bear responsibility for not being competent enough to research such a major decision? The failure of Brexit is on the architects but the enabling of Brexit failure is on those who were stupid enough to not see through the transparent veil. Sorry, but that reads like an ex brexiteer who knows he ****ed up but won't take any responsibility for it. There's no trap there, just deflection.

Anyone with half an hour or so to spare, access to a computer, and even just a half-open mind would or at least should have realised all the major promises from the Leave campaigns were blatant lies. As events have proved and will go on proving.

[Herman 9,713]

He is one of the good guys KIO. 

I fully understand your point too as the voters of this nonsense, especially the louder cheerleaders should take responsibility as well. 

But as he suggests, millions of pounds was spent on well executed propaganda to con the people, most of whom know little to nothing about politics. In simple terms millions were groomed and brainwashed. We should feel a bit of sympathy for them surely? 

[SHRIMPER 328]

The brainwashed, and the would be brainwashers.

[Creative Midfielder 1,985]

2 hours ago, Herman said:

He is one of the good guys KIO. 

I fully understand your point too as the voters of this nonsense, especially the louder cheerleaders should take responsibility as well. 

But as he suggests, millions of pounds was spent on well executed propaganda to con the people, most of whom know little to nothing about politics. In simple terms millions were groomed and brainwashed. We should feel a bit of sympathy for them surely? 

Tricky one - I tend to side with KIO & Purple on this primarily because not withstanding the propanganda and the lies\false promises about the mythical benefits of Brexit, there were a great number of lies, which were clear and demonstrable lies, told about the recent history and current situation between the UK and the EU.

These lies were not to do with future projections/promises, they were about what had already happened or the current situation and were clear and well known lies at the time of the referendum, so for that I don't see that people can really claim to be have been conned as an excuse for their stupidity.

But you do have a point that a huge amount of money was spent on a well executed (and illegal) propaganda campaign and of course propaganda is successful the world over but especially in countries like the UK with very weak electoral systems and low quality, largely unregulated media.

Think it shows just how badly screwed up our (democratic) values are that both the UK and US have happily allowed the Russians (and others)  to interfere with recent elections/referenda whilst we exclude Chinese technology, which is streets ahead of the US/Europeans but excluded on completely fictitious security concerns, from our 5G network - supposedly the backbone of our whole tech services industry.

Take it all together and it seems to me that the UK is run by a set of idiots - voted for by a minority, but still a substantial minority, of voters who are also idiots.

 

Edited July 20, 2020 by Creative Midfielder

[Yellow Fever 3,747]

1 hour ago, PurpleCanary said:

Anyone with half an hour or so to spare, access to a computer, and even just a half-open mind would or at least should have realised all the major promises from the Leave campaigns were blatant lies. As events have proved and will go on proving.

Of course the so called cheer leaders of Brexit are principally to blame - they played to the 'lowest common denominator' and base, simplistic instincts of the general populace (not a monopoly of the left or right) - be it the £350M/week bald lie or the near zero understanding on trade! That however does not excuse the same general populace of their role, taken in as they were by these charlatans,  of their culpability in the end result. 

Edited July 20, 2020 by Yellow Fever

[kick it off 1,948]

2 hours ago, Herman said:

He is one of the good guys KIO. 

I fully understand your point too as the voters of this nonsense, especially the louder cheerleaders should take responsibility as well. 

But as he suggests, millions of pounds was spent on well executed propaganda to con the people, most of whom know little to nothing about politics. In simple terms millions were groomed and brainwashed. We should feel a bit of sympathy for them surely? 

For what? Being stupid enough not to be able to think for themselves? They've taken away freedoms and rights from my daughter, but I should feel sorry for them because they couldn't work it out? Because despite living in an age where all the answers are 0.0023 seconds away on google, they couldn't be arsed to check stuff out? 

Nope, sorry, that **** doesn't fly with me. They've spent 4 years blaming everybody but themselves and now they need to take a long, hard look in the mirror and come to terms with what they did.

[Yellow Fever 3,747]

13 minutes ago, kick it off said:

For what? Being stupid enough not to be able to think for themselves? They've taken away freedoms and rights from my daughter, but I should feel sorry for them because they couldn't work it out? Because despite living in an age where all the answers are 0.0023 seconds away on google, they couldn't be arsed to check stuff out? 

Nope, sorry, that **** doesn't fly with me. They've spent 4 years blaming everybody but themselves and now they need to take a long, hard look in the mirror and come to terms with what they did.

Arh the 'Mirror Test'

From Wikipaedia The mirror test—sometimes called the mark test, mirror self-recognition (MSR) test, red spot technique, or rouge test—is a behavioural technique developed in 1970 by American psychologist Gordon Gallup Jr. as an attempt to determine whether an animal possesses the ability of visual self-recognition.

I think we'll be waiting for quite a while  for them to pass this from what I've seen on here!

[Herman 9,713]

A weird feeling in that I can't disagree with the points being made even though they are mostly disagreeing with the point I made. 

[Yellow Fever 3,747]

18 minutes ago, Herman said:

A weird feeling in that I can't disagree with the points being made even though they are mostly disagreeing with the point I made. 

I think there are two not mutually exclusive points - we all agree the 'Leave' campaign was at best misleading if not simply disingenuous (if they had argued 'No Deal' etc and for where we are now at the 2016 referendum they would of been generally treated as fruitcakes and laughed out of politics). So far all the 'they need us more than we need them', 'cake and eat it' has turned out be the blarney it always was. I'm now looking forward to the Brexit Covid fishing boat scrappage scheme as exports cease.

That said - we live in democracy and many having 'made their bed' misled or otherwise now need to lie down in it - fleas and all.

Limited sympathy. Don't let the bed bugs bite.

Edited July 20, 2020 by Yellow Fever

[BigFish 1,986]

58 minutes ago, Herman said:

A weird feeling in that I can't disagree with the points being made even though they are mostly disagreeing with the point I made. 

Not so weird @Herman, I tend to agree with your initial point but @PurpleCanary, @kick it off and @Yellow Fever all come from the same perspective on this as we do. There is a reason why we have a representative democracy in this country despite all its faults rather than rule by referenda. That is because the majority (silent or not) don't have the time, inclination or skills to process complex decisions, much easier to subcontract this to professionals who make it their life's work via regular elections. The problem is that this time the UK's broken systems of governance couldn't resolve this question so cowardly passed the buck to the electorate, most of whom, lets face didn't care either way. Pile on an efficient disinformation campaign, a rabidly anti-EU media and political chancers grabbing their opportunity and 37% of the population cut off their noses to spite their faces.

[PurpleCanary 5,554]

7 hours ago, PurpleCanary said:

Anyone with half an hour or so to spare, access to a computer, and even just a half-open mind would or at least should have realised all the major promises from the Leave campaigns were blatant lies. As events have proved and will go on proving.

Of course I take the point about the massive amount of money spent on these blatant lies, and how easy it would be to believe them. But people are supposed in a democracy to have some ability to work out what is true and what is false.

An extra point is that these lies about Brexit were accepted as true because they were deliberately tailored to fit in with the still widely believed myth of British (or should that be English?) specialness. A myth that is decades and decades out of date. Last week I quoted Len Deighton, writing 25 years ago, so not about Brexit:

'Britain's long history of greatly overestimating its own strengths and skills leads it to underestimate foreign powers. Our Victorian heyday still dominates our national imagination and our island geography has often enabled us to avoid the consequences of grave miscalculations by our leaders. Such good fortune cannot continue indefinitely.'

This myth led people to believe general things, such as it being somehow undignified and beneath the UK to have to take account of foreigners, not to mention the they-need-us-more-than-we-need-them nonsense.

But also specifics, such as a UK-US trade deal being the easiest thing in the world because of the 'special relationship'. Again, if there ever was such it ended decades ago. Israel (and I am not making an anti-Israeli point here) is the only country with which the US has such a relationship that it, the US, would think of taking that country's interests as much into account as its own, and perhaps even prioritising that country's interests ahead of its own.

Edited July 20, 2020 by PurpleCanary

[Herman 9,713]

I show a hint of empathy towards brexiters for a moment and what do I get in return? Constant trolling by those new brexit government adverts.😐

Anyway the Russia report to be released tomorrow morning. Likely guess is that @BigFish will be correct and it will be a ball of nothingness but there's always a bit of hope.

[Surfer 1,547]

Oh I don't know, the spin already is the Russians interfered to persuade the Scots to vote for independence, as well as try to get Labour to win the last election.... so a little "balance" via efforts in other campaigns is probably O.K and nothing to worry about. 

 

[Herman 9,713]

NHS and food safety protections in any future trade deal have been voted down. The country has been sold down the river for the sake of a crappy deal with the US. Welcome to taking back control. 

As of tonight's votes, Parliament will have no say in any future trade deals...... To partly quote Daisy Cooper, MP for St. Albans. 

Edited July 21, 2020 by Herman

[BigFish 1,986]

50 minutes ago, Herman said:

NHS and food safety protections in any future trade deal have been voted down. The country has been sold down the river for the sake of a crappy deal with the US. Welcome to taking back control. 

As of tonight's votes, Parliament will have no say in any future trade deals...... To partly quote Daisy Cooper, MP for St. Albans. 

The behaviour of the Brexit coterie that now rule the country demonstrates the weakness of the nations constituitional arrangements. They can do very much what they like and there is little anyone can do to stop them. That they are also demonstrating total incompetence is the real worry. It is less what they do on purpose that is the concern because that will probably fail, it is what they do inadvertedly that will cause the real problem.

[A Load of Squit 5,128]

2 hours ago, Herman said:

NHS and food safety protections in any future trade deal have been voted down. The country has been sold down the river for the sake of a crappy deal with the US. Welcome to taking back control. 

As of tonight's votes, Parliament will have no say in any future trade deals...... To partly quote Daisy Cooper, MP for St. Albans.