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lake district canary

Hang in there, all is not lost!

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28 minutes ago, hogesar said:

Well, Bournemouth look worse than us.

It's not a great comfort though.

 

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1 minute ago, Making Plans said:

It's not a great comfort though.

 

No, but it's the best I've got right now!

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4 minutes ago, hogesar said:

No, but it's the best I've got right now!

I’ve got Southern Comfort far better, especially with Pepsi max.

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19 hours ago, ricardo said:

There's blind faith and then there's stupidity. It's over and has been over for some time.

The long break revived hope that the restart might be like a new season, but last night crushed that dream.

All eyes should now be concentrated on next season and blooding one or two that will be likely starters when we restart in the lower league.

I think all eyes have been on next season since last November! 

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16 hours ago, Parma Ham's gone mouldy said:

@Mason 47 I think that the move you refer to is not designed as a primary weapon, rather a fall-back when progressive ‘under-load’ playing out from the back is shut out. 

Whilst Stieperman is not the easiest player on the eye, it may be the case - and I’d want to go over last year’s footage again - that he actually made a good percentage of such situations into something playable in the Championship. To state the obvious Drmic is nothing like Stieperman. 

Because Drmic is nothing like Stieperman, the midfielders pushed aggressively higher, ostensibly trying to support. As you state this is rather naively over-ambitious tactically at this level. As any good chess player knows, nearly winning is normal when you ‘open up and go for it’. In the end though, your exposed structure causes you to eventually lose (perhaps claiming very English ‘glorious failure’ when it was actually nothing of the sort).

In the Championship - when you have half a second longer to play the ball - your ‘out ball’ may be serviceable. In the Premier League - where Stieperman may not be considered silky enough (or perhaps he WOULD have played?) - this becomes quarter of a second and the out ball a bit less serviceable, the defender cuter and the Subsequent turnover more costly. 

There may be something in what you say actually. Perhaps some well-laid plans were disrupted late on and Farke tried to shoehorn  pieces into his new way?

This would explain the incoherence, the clear tactical confusion on-field and the brittleness as soon as events went against. 

The ‘out ball’ you speak of is a mental relic from the previous system - issued when tactical Plan A failed - and my suspicion is that the more direct play via the inclusion of Drmic left all without the mental shield of ‘looking good’ and ‘playing good football’ which can of course at least (artificially if you like) raise the spirits of the underdog. Without Stieperman I am unconvinced that this pattern of play has any value for us (even if the existing isn’t working). It is swapping 6/10 for 4/10.

Truthfully though, when you are inferior even terrific tactics can look redundant. Personally I feel the overall shape change - welcomed by some no doubt - was a tactical and psychological error.

Parma 

Thanks for the insight, Parma. I always appreciate it when you take the time to post.

Pure speculation, of course, but could the original planned system have been 5-3-2 and due to the defensive injuries Farke's hand was forced?

It will certainly be interesting to see if we persist with the new system against Everton.

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17 hours ago, Parma Ham's gone mouldy said:

Something I would add - that is not intended to exonerate a poor performance - is that I did not feel it was a ‘scapegoat’ performance. No single player made dramatic errors, everybody was well short in tactical, technical, physically and - apparently - psychological terms.

Pukki - our most effective player - repeatedly did not ‘get away’ when presented with decent opportunities to scamper away crab-like and get a shot away on target as we have all seen him do effectively many, many times. He looked slow, rusty and mentally encumbered. His reactions times looked slow. 

Whilst we all love Klose as a player (at his best), it appeared to me - and this is only an opinion based on the footage - that others around him were less than convinced by his mobility. The act of having to ‘half-cover just-in-case’ for another player (as Godfrey appeared to be doing at times) massively impacts your own game and can be quickly noticed and exploited by street-wise opponents. In coaching terms ‘it isn’t always the one who makes the mistake that makes the mistake’. 

MacClean and Trybull should perhaps have ‘sat’ more to combat this, though our two strikers - if they don’t both work very hard into the channels and sometimes drop in and sometimes don’t - can create confusion via erratic tactical movements that affect the midfielders behind them. 

To compound this Buendia gave the ball away too much in poor areas and Cantwell did not get into the rhythm of the game. That’s a lot of your players looking around trying to make sense of the (changed) on-field structure. Farke must also take a bullet in the shoulder for that.

Whilst no-one will lament the end of Chris Hughton’s time much, there is method in the madness of not changing if you are inferior (which on paper we have always been this year). If you do tear up the drilled blueprint your much-grooved, repeated message - that has been a psychologically comfort-blanket to your players, coaxing the best available out of them via clear methodology - you always run the risk of chaos and confusion ensuing on-field.*

*This is especially and particularly true as an inferior side note, it doesn’t apply as much to top sides who can focus more on flexible-attack strategies to simply create problems for others. If you’re worse I’m afraid you can’t really get away with this.

 And we didn’t.

Parma 
 

In business they talk about being promoted to a position of incompetence, and this has been our fate.  When we started the championship last season, a top 10 finish is what most outside Norwich would have predicted, Champions was a truly fantastic (and maybe over) achievement.  Our players who performed above themselves at a 7 or 8 /10 level in the championship, were not reinforced in the summer and the same players have become, mainly 5 / 6 out of 10 players in the premier league.  Tettey's importance to us illustrates this point perfectly.    Generally we have not had enough quality and been exploited.  Phases of games we can look good, but teams no they need to hold us in that period and then exploit us when effort levels can't be sustained.  We blew up on Friday, possibly after the early endeavours, in the end the match reminded me of the champions league final in 2005 where Southampton midfielders were allowed to run 30-40 metres with the ball unopposed, and also the Colchester debacle where we would vastly outnumber the opposition in the box, but no one would affect the ball.

Last season we built a passing style, but our best option for maintaining possession in midfield, Leitner, has been sacrificed too lightweight, and for the need of more athletic qualities.  An error in judgement or a necessity, it matters not, in essence we have a set of top trump cards that are deficient in too many areas, and too many defeats impacts confidence.  Losing all 17 games we have gone behind in, is a damning statistic.  After Friday, Farke's "little miracle" feels now like a "massive miracle".

We'll get up and go again on Wednesday, and I wouldn't be surprised if we pick up 3 points, and while that will offer renewed hope, it is likely to be false for the reason's above, but just maybe the team will surprise again.  If not, I hope to see a return to the passing game, and that the club learn from the experience and ensure we prepare for top flight football better next time, buying some premiership leadership, experience, nous and resilience in the centre of the park to help coordinate & lead the team on field would be key, but that's not cheap.  Over to you Stuart Webber (hopefully if you are still here)!!

 

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21 hours ago, lake district canary said:

 

Ah yes, the cup........just shows we've still potentially got a lot to look forward to this season.  If nothing else, being a Norwich fan is a roller coaster........but then roller coasters can be exilharating....down one minute, up the next........we've seen it before, lose a match badly, get a reaction and do much better the next, a down yesterday, hopefully an up for the next match.  

It may be what some class as being a happy clapper, but it is possible to be optimistic, even when everything is against you, you can still thrive - as shown when beating Man City with a makeshift team.  Anything can happen.....still 8 games to go and potentially 11 including the cup......that's nearly a quarter of a season.

I love you Lakeyo.  Im much more on your side than the angst ridden, stay in the Prem at any cost  Brigade. Thanks for all the positivity. Good man. I dont know quite where we are gonna pick up the wins but I'll watch anyway. 

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Is this the most informed post ever on this forum.   With so much hysteria and silly comment post match, it’s refreshing to read so much well articulated and reasoned, sensible points.    Glad to see we have plenty of fans who can see the bigger picture!    

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Posted (edited)
5 hours ago, Taiwan Canary said:

Thanks for the insight, Parma. I always appreciate it when you take the time to post.

Pure speculation, of course, but could the original planned system have been 5-3-2 and due to the defensive injuries Farke's hand was forced?

It will certainly be interesting to see if we persist with the new system against Everton.

5 hours ago, Taiwan Canary said:
 
22 hours ago, Parma Ham's gone mouldy said:

@Mason 47 I think that the move you refer to is not designed as a primary weapon, rather a fall-back when progressive ‘under-load’ playing out from the back is shut out. 

Whilst Stieperman is not the easiest player on the eye, it may be the case - and I’d want to go over last year’s footage again - that he actually made a good percentage of such situations into something playable in the Championship. To state the obvious Drmic is nothing like Stieperman. 

Because Drmic is nothing like Stieperman, the midfielders pushed aggressively higher, ostensibly trying to support. As you state this is rather naively over-ambitious tactically at this level. As any good chess player knows, nearly winning is normal when you ‘open up and go for it’. In the end though, your exposed structure causes you to eventually lose (perhaps claiming very English ‘glorious failure’ when it was actually nothing of the sort).

In the Championship - when you have half a second longer to play the ball - your ‘out ball’ may be serviceable. In the Premier League - where Stieperman may not be considered silky enough (or perhaps he WOULD have played?) - this becomes quarter of a second and the out ball a bit less serviceable, the defender cuter and the Subsequent turnover more costly. 

There may be something in what you say actually. Perhaps some well-laid plans were disrupted late on and Farke tried to shoehorn  pieces into his new way?

This would explain the incoherence, the clear tactical confusion on-field and the brittleness as soon as events went against. 

The ‘out ball’ you speak of is a mental relic from the previous system - issued when tactical Plan A failed - and my suspicion is that the more direct play via the inclusion of Drmic left all without the mental shield of ‘looking good’ and ‘playing good football’ which can of course at least (artificially if you like) raise the spirits of the underdog. Without Stieperman I am unconvinced that this pattern of play has any value for us (even if the existing isn’t working). It is swapping 6/10 for 4/10.

Truthfully though, when you are inferior even terrific tactics can look redundant. Personally I feel the overall shape change - welcomed by some no doubt - was a tactical and psychological error.

Parma 

Thanks @Taiwan Canary

It appears from Farke’s interview that he is indeed implying much of what we surmised is correct:

https://www.pinkun.com/norwich-city/connor-southwell-on-daniel-farke-s-tactical-approach-against-southampton-1-6710533

He refers repeatedly to the loss of Stieperman as fundamental - implying he would have played - that changes were indeed forced on him last minute and that covering for others was required (surely Klose).

Furthermore he appears to entirely accept the weaknesses we identified here in the rather over-attacking line up, tactics and strategies and (tacitly) admitted he went all out for first goal and the boost in confidence it could give.

He also accepted the ‘bullet in the shoulder’ that when the opposite happens, the opposite happens. As we all saw.

This approach is what pub wisdom is founded on , the exciting times when you bet on a six and rolled a six. It did happen, it’s true. Once out of six. Forever more. It’s not a strategy, it’s a mirage badly dressed at the Dog and Duck as a real option ‘for this must win game’ (to fans they all are). Over an extended period, you must devise something more mathematically positive. Finer, more pragmatic tactics with far greater amortisation of your weaknesses, not blind focusing on your strengths. 

As a good German - who are masters at respecting and sticking to the maths over generations to their great footballing benefit - he will know that gambling on rainbows and unicorns is for the desperately romantic. 

6/10 is not at all great, but 4/10 is trotsdem worse. I suppose he did it because he - and the players - were desperate. In the second half we saw that very realisation and the painful real price of the gamble that fans (of inferior sides) want to see. 

Self-awareness is painful and difficult. It’s tempting not to choose to do it. It’s just that everything else is worse.

Parma

Edited by Parma Ham's gone mouldy

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Posted (edited)

Thanks for the response,  Parma. I wonder how significant the ”bullet in the shoulder” is; has he taken one before as Norwich boss?

Edited by Taiwan Canary

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I don’t post very often at all so bear with me!

It always hurts after a defeat, especially the manner of Fridays and questionable tactics and naive defending with the 1st game back. It would be interesting to see how the game would have panned out had we not gone with Drmic and instead gone with Vrancic to be a bit more solid in the middle whilst having that range of pass to play Pukki in.

however we all can surely agree that staying up in the league this season would be a massive over achievement - that isn’t being defeatist but being a realist.  I can think of a number of games where we have been right bang in it but the margins are so fine that on another day we may have held on for a point or clung onto all 3. Crystal Palace, Spurs at home are just some of those games. 

yes reality is that we didn’t but ultimately 3 teams have to go down and there are teams where relegation will majorly impact on them than us. We will be back again. 

We have to believe in the long term strategy - if we don’t stay up then we look forward to a strong Championship season, seeing the team winning more games again and some cracking young talent continuing to emerge into the first team  (Idah, J Martin etc) as well as new signings (McCallum, Sinani, Sitti etc). 
 

and we won’t fire sale - the value of the players does not reduce just because of relegation and/or the impact of Co-vid and we are not going to be forced to sell as per Webber’s comments.  I especially cannot see us selling to dirty Leeds !!

 

 

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Actually guys, it’s not catastrophic to go down, the reality is that most our youngsters actually need another decent season under their belt for development. Another season of being beaten virtually every week will only hinder their real potential.

A season in the championship with the youngsters we have, those coming through and those we could sign, might well make us a stronger proposition should we go back up again.

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12 minutes ago, Indy said:

Actually guys, it’s not catastrophic to go down, the reality is that most our youngsters actually need another decent season under their belt for development. Another season of being beaten virtually every week will only hinder their real potential.

A season in the championship with the youngsters we have, those coming through and those we could sign, might well make us a stronger proposition should we go back up again.

Agreed it has been fantastic season for them to get the prem exposure and understand the gulf in class and ruthlessness of punishing mistakes that you may get away with in the champ. 
 

I see us retaining the vast majority of the Squad and only selling where obscene amount is received for them, particularly our young English players. If Grealish is £75m then what’s Godfrey, Aarons etc ? 

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12 hours ago, Tommo said:

the value of the players does not reduce just because of relegation and/or the impact of Co-vid and we are not going to be forced to sell as per Webber’s comments

This isn't really true though.

Going down combined with covid will mean a hit to our income. Lower income means we may need to accept lower offers.

II don't think it'll be a desperate fire sale but I don't think we'll be able to just say 'nobody leaves.'

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19 minutes ago, king canary said:

This isn't really true though.

Going down combined with covid will mean a hit to our income. Lower income means we may need to accept lower offers.

II don't think it'll be a desperate fire sale but I don't think we'll be able to just say 'nobody leaves.'

Depends if we can afford to keep players for another year which in theory we should be able to - the board might feel that they would get better offers a year later assuming of course they continue to perform and avoid injury. It'll be a gamble either way but I'm sure at worst only 2 of our young big players will go.

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Just now, hogesar said:

Depends if we can afford to keep players for another year which in theory we should be able to - the board might feel that they would get better offers a year later assuming of course they continue to perform and avoid injury. It'll be a gamble either way but I'm sure at worst only 2 of our young big players will go.

Maybe.

I think we'll be helped that a couple of the more likely suitors look like they might be tightening their belts this summer- Spurs with Aarons being an obvious example.

The younger players might also not see another season in the Championship as good for them personally- Aarons or Godfrey may have their eyes on England caps and that won't happen in the Championship. 

There are a whole host of factors at play here some of which we don't even know. Who has release clauses in their contracts if we go down? Who is willing to jump for a move to a team like Southampton or Palace if the likes of United or Spurs don't come knocking? Who has got a proactive agent who'll be trying to make it happen?

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6 minutes ago, king canary said:

Maybe.

I think we'll be helped that a couple of the more likely suitors look like they might be tightening their belts this summer- Spurs with Aarons being an obvious example.

The younger players might also not see another season in the Championship as good for them personally- Aarons or Godfrey may have their eyes on England caps and that won't happen in the Championship. 

There are a whole host of factors at play here some of which we don't even know. Who has release clauses in their contracts if we go down? Who is willing to jump for a move to a team like Southampton or Palace if the likes of United or Spurs don't come knocking? Who has got a proactive agent who'll be trying to make it happen?

Yeah the unknown factors is something which of course none of us really know and have a massive impact.

Unfortunately, having seen it not too long ago with my own eyes I can assure you Aarons has a very proactive, pushy agent.

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Posted (edited)
On 20/06/2020 at 10:34, lake district canary said:

I can understand disappointment at losing, but the over reaction to yesterday is a bit harsh, given the circumstances we are all in.  These are unprecedented times and football is going through it's own trauma trying to deal with the conditions caused by the coronavirus.  Clubs are all in the same boat, for sure, but dealing with the situation is hard. Worst of all is there are no fans allowed at the games and this is a big factor at home matches.   

So dig deep and look at the situation calmly and rationally and you will see an almost impossible situation. Up against it in the league being so far down, the weirdness of the situation and the continued saga of injuries to defenders and opposition of far greater resources than us. 

Yeah, yeah, blah, blah, change the owners.........change the record more like.  A continued bleating of fans seemimgly self entitled and demanding change when we are STILL one of the best clubs in the country.  Premier league or championship, one of the best clubs in the country.  That is how we are getting to the PL so often and other clubs of greater resources can't get anywhere near it.  So you can't accept being the small resourced club that keeps coming back only to be knocked down again. Well tough. Welcome to the real world.  NCFC is the envy of many clubs in the football league - and probably some in the PL as well.  We try to play football in it's best form, not just physical dominance.  We try to play like Man City and Liverpool - the footballing dream.

Yes, it's a dream - a dream that is worth everything - look how good we can look against ANY team - yes, we haven't been able to sustain it for long enough or score the goals that kind of play has deserved - but we can look fantastic.  Yesterday was one of those matches where we just got physically outdone and the pressure of that week after week has been telling.  Farkeball - at it's best - is fantastic - and anyone who does not think that his style of football is the best we have ever seen (when it is working well) - or at least as good as those days in the late 80s early 90s, then they are plainly just not really understanding anything. 

So be careful - and don't be sucked into the dramas that social media throws up - the ones where anti-ncfc trolls try to paint a terrible picture of the club - we know who you are.  Think for yourselves - look at it with an open mind - yes, yesterday was an awful match, but try and accept that the circumstances are against us.  Sure some things could be done differently, but in Farke we trust........or should do, given his achievements with us so far.  

Imo, the first matches in this closed door series are unknowns for everyone, players and fans alike - it's all very strange. We came off badly yesterday, but there will be lessons learned and the experience of that first weird scenario of a match will help us next time.

The miracle is still there to be had, looking unlikely, I know, but hang in there, we know we can play great football - and maybe there are some twists and turns to come.

Groundhog day,

I bet you wrote that 'piece' at the start of April and it all ready to copy and paste.

Edited by CDMullins

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We’re going to have to show that lessons are being learned to ensure they all remain confident in the project.   That means finding some real athletes with strength and ability, not just technical players.
 

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Parachute payments are guaranteed money though, so we arent financially in the worst position financially even if we do go down (especially compared to other teams)

 

The issue is I think FFP is being thrown out for next season.  So premier league sides who dont rely on income and have a filthy rich owner might use this year as an opportunity to throw massive amounts into their clubs to buy players.   

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2 minutes ago, Haus said:

Parachute payments are guaranteed money though, so we arent financially in the worst position financially even if we do go down (especially compared to other teams)

 

The issue is I think FFP is being thrown out for next season.  So premier league sides who dont rely on income and have a filthy rich owner might use this year as an opportunity to throw massive amounts into their clubs to buy players.   

This will probably depends on what their filthy rich owners do for a living.

The likes of Man City and Chelsea will likely rumble on unaffected.

Not so sure what it might mean for teams owned by US owners or rich businessmen like Bournemouth or Brighton.

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23 minutes ago, hogesar said:

Yeah the unknown factors is something which of course none of us really know and have a massive impact.

Unfortunately, having seen it not too long ago with my own eyes I can assure you Aarons has a very proactive, pushy agent.

I think Godfrey does too.

No idea who represents Cantwell, Lewis or Buendia.

We're unfortunately in a world now where Aarons would probably improve his England chances by making 20 starts for someone like Chelsea rather than 46 for us in the Championship or even 38 in the Premier League. 

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35 minutes ago, king canary said:

I think Godfrey does too.

No idea who represents Cantwell, Lewis or Buendia.

We're unfortunately in a world now where Aarons would probably improve his England chances by making 20 starts for someone like Chelsea rather than 46 for us in the Championship or even 38 in the Premier League. 

Correct.

I don't know the guy who represents Aarons to be fair, but he was happy to meet with some representatives in a pretty public place and was loudly outspoken about how Max is going right to the top and they don't want to miss the opportunity etc etc. This was back in Feb!

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43 minutes ago, hogesar said:

Correct.

I don't know the guy who represents Aarons to be fair, but he was happy to meet with some representatives in a pretty public place and was loudly outspoken about how Max is going right to the top and they don't want to miss the opportunity etc etc. This was back in Feb!

It would feel like a loss for players like Max, Ben, Emi, Todd and the other possible targets to move on, but we need to see the big picture - as Webber and the rest of the club management will.

 

Right now, we are an attractive club to young players with potential. We've shown we can coach them to get better, give them opportunities to play first team football, experience success and then advertise themselves on the biggest stage in the game so that they can move on to the next level and reap the rewards of that. If we don't let the top few young players move on when we get good offers for them, that attractiveness will start to diminish. If you're a farmer, you don't leave your plants growing until they die, you harvest them, sell them and plant fresh new ones.

Three or four lucrative sales of our best young players will *long-term* be absolutely the best thing for our club.

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Even when it is mathematically impossible for us to stay up LDC will still be posting his happy crappy nonsense about staying up

It has been our worst premier league campaign in living memory and that seems to being forgotten about

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22 minutes ago, Nuff Said said:

It would feel like a loss for players like Max, Ben, Emi, Todd and the other possible targets to move on, but we need to see the big picture - as Webber and the rest of the club management will.

 

Right now, we are an attractive club to young players with potential. We've shown we can coach them to get better, give them opportunities to play first team football, experience success and then advertise themselves on the biggest stage in the game so that they can move on to the next level and reap the rewards of that. If we don't let the top few young players move on when we get good offers for them, that attractiveness will start to diminish. If you're a farmer, you don't leave your plants growing until they die, you harvest them, sell them and plant fresh new ones.

Three or four lucrative sales of our best young players will *long-term* be absolutely the best thing for our club.

Obviously I haven't got a clue, but I wouldn't be surprised if we might be saying goodbye to Aarons, Buendia, Leitner, Klose and possibly Cantwell over the summer. Buendia would be a huge loss from that list. I hope Krul & Pukki stick around. Much will depend on how the squad perform over these last 8 games. Squad morale is huge. I believe Lewis, Godfrey & Hernandez will still be here for next season, and quite possibly Cantwell too. 

Sam McCallum, Idah, Josh Martin & Sinani will all likely be pushing hard to feature. I don't think Sitti will be just yet, possibly a season-long loan. Perhaps a loan for Famewo too. Will Louis Thompson have a role next year? Surely CDM & CB will be strengthened over the summer? The likes of Trybull, Stiepermann, McLean, Rupp (jury still out), Vrancic and Drmic in theory should be well able to perform well at top Champo level, but as has been shown this year (which virtually all promoted teams suffer from), the step up was a bit beyond them. 

Of course there are lots of unknowns, but some PL clubs might have a sniff around Krul, Aarons, Pukki, Buendia and after them, possibly Godfrey, Cantwell & Lewis. Mistakes have been made this season, it was a gamble to be so cautious financially, recruitment didn't work out, we were disproportionately unlucky with defensive injuries, Pukki ran out of steam & losing 19 out of 30 matches surely affects the mood in the camp. But this Webber & Farke era has been very honest and communicative (possibly too honest about squad ability!) and for me, still has credit in the bank. Lots of positives despite the disappointment this year. Hopefully lessons have been learned and can be harnessed for another push next year. And if promotion is achieved again, as per the "plan", you would hope more money will be made available, better players will be recruited and we'll make a better fist of the scrap for 17th! 

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There are always grounds for optimism, but waving that flag does not mean that legitimate criticism of Friday and other aspects is not fair. Yes we've had injuries, less spending, youngsters etc but frankly the issues are more than that. The strangeness was the same for both sides. Southampton looked like a fit, well drilled and committed outfit despite being 200miles away from hime and already pretty much safe. We seemed to lack match fitness  commitment, drive, confidence and footballing nous. These things don't cost money. I maintain that we do (or rather did) have enough in our squad to survive. I would rather focus on constructive opportunities for improvement than just accepting whatever our situation is and saying "well, it could be worse". Too many aspects of Friday were simply not good enough and Webber needs to work out why.

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I understand that we might well get a few casting looks towards Cantwell & Aaron’s But the rest really haven’t been so impressive that any club would meet our demands. I suggest that we would want at least 25 million for Buendia and 20 million for the likes of Lewis, Pukki, Godfrey......not sure many clubs will match this.

We shall see if Webber gets his way or if Aunt Delia will sell to put more coffers in the piggy bank for rainy days, as the gamble is they don’t reach the form of last season and their value drops.

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