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3rd Bottom currently sitting on 27 points with 9 to play. Could be a high point finish required to escape relegation this year. 37-39 pts?

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I think 2-3 games in will be when we have a clear picture of what it's going to take. Using the restart in Germany to go by, there have been teams that were misfiring that have come back a lot more put together, whilst others (looking at you, Schalke) have come back and looked like they've turned up for the wrong sport.

For me, I'd live in a bubble until after the Everton game. If we can cobble together two unlikely wins from those favourable home games straight out the gate I believe we'll be back on terms with the rest of the pack and it will come down to who flinches. I picked out Brighton to drop before all the chaos because their run-in is very tricky, and I just have a feeling that the money-based squad at Villa (having had their cup final for the season already, too) are less likely to come back fighting than others.

I think if you got more than 35 points you'd be unlucky not to stay up.

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Posted (edited)

Obviously it's one of those things you just can't predict. I'd say five wins out of nine would give us a decent chance, and four wins and a draw or two would give us an outside chance if we get very lucky.

But considering we have to play 'away' against Chelsea, Arsenal and Man City, I'm very pessimistic.

Edited by Wacky Waving Inflatable Arm Flailing Tube Man

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13 minutes ago, Wacky Waving Inflatable Arm Flailing Tube Man said:

But considering we have to play 'away' against Chelsea, Arsenal and Man City, I'm very pessimistic.

No problem, they'll all be on the beach although I'm not sure which one

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Posted (edited)

Lockdown has required a great deal of self-discipline from players (as indeed does the Summer break in many cases.)

It would be interesting to know which squads in the P.L. have lapsed the most. We know of the antics of certain high profile individuals and they all seem to be from the so-called 'big city' clubs. Pukki coming back one stone heavier will be very un-Finnlike perhaps?

I am inclined to think that the City squad will be as well prepared as any, will click back into the 'Farke system' seamlessly and do quite well.

Whether they are capable of performing a Phoenix-like rise from the ashes is another thing.

Edited by BroadstairsR

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Well one thing is for sure, our players should be up and ready to fight for this spell of games.  A couple of decent results against sides with (potentially) less at stake and we’d be right in the mix

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As already mentioned, those first two matches are vital.  At home (which still offers some level of advantage) against average sides with nothing to play for. I expect we’ll know where we’re at by the time we face Utd in the cup.

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29 minutes ago, Clint said:

As already mentioned, those first two matches are vital.  At home (which still offers some level of advantage) against average sides with nothing to play for. I expect we’ll know where we’re at by the time we face Utd in the cup.

Has to be 2 wins.

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37 minutes ago, Clint said:

As already mentioned, those first two matches are vital.  At home (which still offers some level of advantage) against average sides with nothing to play for. I expect we’ll know where we’re at by the time we face Utd in the cup.

Interestingly, the Bundesliga experience post lockdown has not seen home advantage. The stats have changed from 45% winning at home to only 22% now. Away teams behind closed doors are winning 48% of the time. 

Will the PL be the same?

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19 minutes ago, sonyc said:

Interestingly, the Bundesliga experience post lockdown has not seen home advantage. The stats have changed from 45% winning at home to only 22% now. Away teams behind closed doors are winning 48% of the time. 

Will the PL be the same?

That is our problem. The way we played against Leicester and Spurs had made me think that 12 more points was achievable but we have now effectively lost home advantage in 5 winnable games. 

Anything could happen now.

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1 hour ago, Midlands Yellow said:

Has to be 2 wins.

Agreed. Looking at our remaining fixtures we really need maximum points, just no margin for error. If we're out the blocks firing on all cylinders then we have a chance albeit slim,  but it's still in our hands.

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There is a sure and simple formula for this. It is X + Y + Z, in which X stands for the points total we actually reach, Y stands for the points we are denied by scandalous penalty decisions not referred to VAR, and Z stands for the points we are denied by scandalous penalty decisions given by VAR...

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Over the 9 games left we have more to fight for than most of the other teams in the League so I think we will be ready.

I'm not sure that there will be an awful lot of enthusiasm for a restart shown by a lot of players but I would imagine that DF will have our lads well fired up.

A full squad for the first time this season, a cause to fight for and our most recent form are all positives.

Empty stadiums could be an advantage to us and If our opponents are only at 90% or less, and we can be at 110%, then we have a great chance.

I wouldn't right us of just yet

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Chris Sutton was saying on the Radio how the clubs at the bottom need to be out the blocks quick, the rest have little to play for. It's a shame we have Chelsea,  Arsenal and Man City as all are chasing CL place,  but the Gunners are 5 points off so could have 1 foot on the beach by the time we play them. Win our 'first' two and the cat will be amongst the pigeons.

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See the problem outside of our own games is that the teams around the relegation zone always picked up a win every week whether it was newcastle one week, villa the next week. Every week 17th place got a little higher.

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34 minutes ago, Robert Barnes said:

Even if we manage to win our remaining games.it will still be very unlikely for us to survive

That’s the spirit. 
 

If we win our remaining games I’ll guarantee we stay up. 

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5 hours ago, Duncan Edwards said:

That’s the spirit. 
 

If we win our remaining games I’ll guarantee we stay up. 

I don't think anyone has been relegated on 54 points so far. 😁

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20 hours ago, Clint said:

As already mentioned, those first two matches are vital.  At home (which still offers some level of advantage) against average sides with nothing to play for. I expect we’ll know where we’re at by the time we face Utd in the cup.

Without getting to the stage where we need six points from our last two games these first two games are as near as damn it ‘ must wins ‘. Six points there and it’ll become very interesting .

There’s a bit of wishful thinking on here that for some reason or other the other five teams in the bottom six won’t be as fired up as us but they’ll be thinking the same about us.

The bookies aren’t just being vindictive in having us heavy odds-on to go down. What a celebration there’ll be if they’re proved wrong.

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9 minutes ago, sonyc said:

36 points will do it imo. 5 wins from 9.

Not impossible, but does anyone really think it is likely?

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18 hours ago, Capt. Pants said:

Chris Sutton was saying on the Radio how the clubs at the bottom need to be out the blocks quick, the rest have little to play for. It's a shame we have Chelsea,  Arsenal and Man City as all are chasing CL place,  but the Gunners are 5 points off so could have 1 foot on the beach by the time we play them. Win our 'first' two and the cat will be amongst the pigeons.

Ignores the fact that Man City are facing a two year ban

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It’s going to be very interesting. Although these have been the worst possible circumstances to enforce a 3 month lay off or so, the one small possible upshot of this is that it’s given us (and admittedly the others) a chance for a breather, it’s almost like starting a new season. And as we all know, most teams form rises and falls from year to year. I think it’s fair to say that as players came back we started to get into some better form and were picking up some results. We now (hopefully) finally have Pukki fully fit (and that could be MASSIVE), Klose back for the entire games (injury/suspension aside, and I certainly wouldn’t underestimate what the return of Timm could mean for our back line), there are just so many positives to take from the almost unheard of enforced break in a football season. A chance for players to refocus, possibly even break a slightly downhearted mindset, get into prime condition etc - applicable to all clubs I know, but I’ll take it all the same 👍

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We will stay up. Im very confident that we will. 

Brighton, Villa, West Ham to go down. Get ready to watch one of the finest comebacks from being bottom of the league you will ever see.

 

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1 hour ago, BigFish said:

Not impossible, but does anyone really think it is likely?

Always been my prediction, even before the shutdown. I also based the 36 being enough on who the team's around us had to play. I think one team will tank but no idea who.

If it happens, of course it will be some feat (yet, 15 points from 9 games though is not ridiculous). 

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2 hours ago, BigFish said:

Not impossible, but does anyone really think it is likely?

It was not likely but less likely now. I could see us winning at least three of our remaining home games if there was a crowd there, and there is always the chance of a freak away win. But playing behind closed doors will do us no favours.

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1 hour ago, HairyTeeth said:

We will stay up. Im very confident that we will. 

Brighton, Villa, West Ham to go down. Get ready to watch one of the finest comebacks from being bottom of the league you will ever see.

 

 

1 hour ago, HairyTeeth said:

We will get 40 points.

I like your optimism and very much hope you are correct. I, unfortunately, do not share it.

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