All quiet on vaccine

[Matt Juler 148]

As for the ethics, fortunately I'm a Statistician who interprets the results of trials, I'm not the one having to decide whether something is ethical!

[Indy 3,283]

 

15 minutes ago, Well b back said:

Indy

Hi don’t know if that was aimed at me, but I think if it was you may have misunderstood. The question to Matt is more about wether he feels it is ethical to inject young healthy people with the virus in view of the fact more at risk people will be exposed. To me exposing everyone, means there should be less risk than deliberately infecting a few healthy people. It’s the ethics of a human challenge being discussed, not wether we should be returning to normality.

Yes things will return, but I very much doubt there will be crowds at any major event until proven treatment or a vaccine is found. 

It wasn’t a direct quote more general, making the point that treatments are accelerating forwards and in recent days treatments are showing that some potentially cut hospital stay by half and reduce the severity of the infection.

If this continues, there will be a point where Covid deaths keep reducing against those infected to a point where it’s not as dangerous. I can see governments cautiously moving towards normality with control measures till the combination of low infection rates and treatments can see mass crowds again. I believe and see that the cautious approach is the best for now, but as these treatments become better the more the lifting restrictions will happen. Italy are now lifting travel bans for example.

I don’t think the vaccine is the golden way out, but to make treatments to bring covid to a manageable virus, cutting those at risk to a very minor amount, living with it as some are saying, that’s more important to end global lockdown, if a vaccine isn’t found.

Edited May 16, 2020 by Indy

[Well b back 3,190]

6 minutes ago, Matt Juler said:

Almost all of the pharma companies involved in these initial vaccine trials are multinationals, so I can't see how the US could stop them using results gained from trials in that region globally. What we need to hope is that if the FDA (the US Food and Drug Administration) approve a vaccine, the EMA (the European Medicines Agency) don't delay by doing their own full approval. What we need is for the FDA, EMA and PMDA (of Japan) to work together and share out the approval work on behalf of each other.

Thanks Matt.

I am hoping Jenners becomes part of his ‘ warp speed ‘ trial. At least we will know straight away.

[Well b back 3,190]

Time to bump.

Pfizer have just announced their vaccine is 92% effective and emergency approval is being sort in the U.K.

 

[Well b back 3,190]

More from Pfizer on vaccine

We've just had an announcement from companies Pfizer and BioNtech on the vaccine that they are developing.

They say the vaccine was 90% effective in preventing Covid-19 infections in ongoing Phase three trials.

Protection in patients was achieved seven days after the second of two doses, and 28 days after the first, according to preliminary findings. 

"The first set of results from our Phase 3 Covid-19 vaccine trial provides the initial evidence of our vaccine's ability to prevent Covid-19," Pfizer chairman and CEO Albert Bourla said in a statement.

[Capt. Pants 4,198]

And then it needs to be made available to the entire population starting with essential workers and at risk cohort. A step in the right direction but given this government's record of not being able to organise a **** up on a brewery I'm not expecting a fast movement.

[Jim Smith 2,314]

This is good news although can;t help noticing the line about the effectiveness result being based on just 94 cases and also that it needs to be stored at minus 80! That will make the ligistics of circulating it interesting.

I presume other vaccines will make announcements soon and something of a race will commence!

[Well b back 3,190]

22 minutes ago, Jim Smith said:

This is good news although can;t help noticing the line about the effectiveness result being based on just 94 cases and also that it needs to be stored at minus 80! That will make the ligistics of circulating it interesting.

I presume other vaccines will make announcements soon and something of a race will commence!

Hi Jim

Many 10s of thousands were on the trial, in areas such as Brazil and healthcare workers. 2/3’s were given the vaccine 1/3 a placebo that would not protect you in any way. Of the people that caught it nearly all of them had a placebo. To show how strong this is they were hoping for 50% effectiveness and achieved almost 92%. A vaccine will rarely be 100% effective hence the reason why 1 vaccine maybe used for 1 age group, another on different groups. 
They have not announced this yet but it is likely the trial was so conclusive it was stopped as it would be unethical to keep giving people the placebo when clearly the vaccine was working.

[Jim Smith 2,314]

2 minutes ago, Well b back said:

Hi Jim

Many 10s of thousands were on the trial, in areas such as Brazil and healthcare workers. 2/3’s were given the vaccine 1/3 a placebo that would not protect you in any way. Of the people that caught it nearly all of them had a placebo. To show how strong this is they were hoping for 50% effectiveness and achieved almost 92%. A vaccine will rarely be 100% effective hence the reason why 1 vaccine maybe used for 1 age group, another on different groups. 
They have not announced this yet but it is likely the trial was so conclusive it was stopped as it would be unethical to keep giving people the placebo when clearly the vaccine was working.

Yes I know they tested it on 42,000 but the full story on the bbc states that:

"The data presented is not the final analysis. It is based on the first 94 volunteers to develop Covid - the precise effectiveness of the vaccine may change when the full results are analysed."

I'm sure it is effective and obviously we all hope and prey that is the case. Clearly its been tested on 42,000 people and has been found to be safe to take which is a massive plus.  But in terms of the effectiveness there are clearly further results to assess before any final concolusions can be drawn. But even if its 60% effective then great and if it is indeed 90% effective then fantastic. This is good news. 

[Well b back 3,190]

Just now, Jim Smith said:

Yes I know they tested it on 42,000 but the full story on the bbc states that:

"The data presented is not the final analysis. It is based on the first 94 volunteers to develop Covid - the precise effectiveness of the vaccine may change when the full results are analysed."

I'm sure it is effective and obviously we all hope and prey that is the case. Clearly its been tested on 42,000 people and has been found to be safe to take which is a massive plus.  But in terms of the effectiveness there are clearly further results to assess before any final concolusions can be drawn. But even if its 60% effective then great and if it is indeed 90% effective then fantastic. This is good news. 

Hi again 

Pfizer have just announced they will continue with the trial until 164 are infected. Indeed it may change but those results are way above anything anyone anticipated. 

[Kenny Foggo 1,116]

Pfizer announcing early so they can see a share bump but great news

[Rock The Boat 1,325]

4 hours ago, Kenny Foggo said:

Pfizer announcing early so they can see a share bump but great news

Yes, Big pharma has kept the panic going in order to cash in. With the potential of vaccinating every living person the profits will be enormous

[Capt. Pants 4,198]

What's the betting Norfolk will be last on the list to get it? Liverpool, Manchester, Surrey Uni etc etc.

Would be a shame and even worse if Carrow Rd can't re-open because of it.

[Well b back 3,190]

31 minutes ago, Capt. Pants said:

What's the betting Norfolk will be last on the list to get it? Liverpool, Manchester, Surrey Uni etc etc.

Would be a shame and even worse if Carrow Rd can't re-open because of it.

Hi Captain

Here is the list of priorities ( you will have to scroll down a bit ). This may of course change once they have looked at efficacy in the various groups. Hope that helps, but there will only be enough for 5 million people before Christmas. 
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/priority-groups-for-coronavirus-covid-19-vaccination-advice-from-the-jcvi-25-september-2020/jcvi-updated-interim-advice-on-priority-groups-for-covid-19-vaccination

[Capt. Pants 4,198]

13 minutes ago, Well b back said:

Hi Captain

Here is the list of priorities ( you will have to scroll down a bit ). This may of course change once they have looked at efficacy in the various groups. Hope that helps, but there will only be enough for 5 million people before Christmas. 
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/priority-groups-for-coronavirus-covid-19-vaccination-advice-from-the-jcvi-25-september-2020/jcvi-updated-interim-advice-on-priority-groups-for-covid-19-vaccination

Thanks very much, interesting. Given the nature of the virus in terms of the most at risk if they can vaccinate groups 1-8 relatively quickly this could be fantastic news. It won't stop the virus spreading again but we can learn to live with it better.

[Well b back 3,190]

Like a bus, no news then loads.

Moderna have just confirmed their initial efficacy results are showing 95 % efficacy.

[Haus 259]

51 minutes ago, Well b back said:

Like a bus, no news then loads.

Moderna have just confirmed their initial efficacy results are showing 95 % efficacy.

We havent ordered this one, but the more out there the better. 

[Well b back 3,190]

48 minutes ago, Haus said:

We havent ordered this one, but the more out there the better. 

That’s correct. The main bit of this news is another success.
If Oxford report similar results soon that will be the biggest one for the U.K. not just because it is U.K. but they have been producing their vaccine in large quantities and much of that is destined for us.

 

[Well b back 3,190]

Pfizer full report is now out 190 infections only 9 in the vaccinated group and only one of those in the vaccinated group, encountered any serious symptoms when catching it. The even better news over 94% effective in over 65’s.

The even better news ( hopefully ) is that the Oxford efficacy results are imminent. This will be a huge game changer for the U.K. as many doses are already prepared and we have 100 million doses on order.

[chicken 2,604]

On 16/11/2020 at 14:38, Haus said:

We havent ordered this one, but the more out there the better. 

I believe we did. But not as many and it was a bit last minute. I don't think this one will be available until April though, according to various news sources.

On 09/11/2020 at 20:23, Capt. Pants said:

What's the betting Norfolk will be last on the list to get it? Liverpool, Manchester, Surrey Uni etc etc.

Would be a shame and even worse if Carrow Rd can't re-open because of it.

In terms of age brackets, I seem to remember seeing that Norfolk has one of the highest over 65's populations in terms of percentage. So if they go by age and vulnerability first, it may well be that a fair few in Norfolk are vaccinated first.

[Well b back 3,190]

3 minutes ago, chicken said:

I believe we did. But not as many and it was a bit last minute. I don't think this one will be available until April though, according to various news sources.

In terms of age brackets, I seem to remember seeing that Norfolk has one of the highest over 65's populations in terms of percentage. So if they go by age and vulnerability first, it may well be that a fair few in Norfolk are vaccinated first.

Indeed.

The quickness depends on the Oxford vaccine, which is the U.K. game changer. Even if it does not work so well in the older age groups the Pfizer doses can clearly be given if necessary exclusively to the older age groups. 
We wait with anticipation as Pfizer are now claiming they have sent their safety data for approval.

[chicken 2,604]

32 minutes ago, Well b back said:

Indeed.

The quickness depends on the Oxford vaccine, which is the U.K. game changer. Even if it does not work so well in the older age groups the Pfizer doses can clearly be given if necessary exclusively to the older age groups. 
We wait with anticipation as Pfizer are now claiming they have sent their safety data for approval.

Yup, and reportedly we have a large order with Pfizer of which the first 10million could be with us for Christmas... though that translates as 5million vaccinations I believe as you need two doses.

 

[Well b back 3,190]

21 minutes ago, chicken said:

Yup, and reportedly we have a large order with Pfizer of which the first 10million could be with us for Christmas... though that translates as 5million vaccinations I believe as you need two doses.

 

That is indeed correct. Oxford will also be 2 doses, and we have 40 million on immediate order and 100 million in total. Large amounts have already been produced. The other advantage is it only needs to be stored at normal fridge temperatures rather than -70.

[CANARYKING 634]

This needs to be moved to “ Come on Sarah “ 

[chicken 2,604]

2 hours ago, Well b back said:

That is indeed correct. Oxford will also be 2 doses, and we have 40 million on immediate order and 100 million in total. Large amounts have already been produced. The other advantage is it only needs to be stored at normal fridge temperatures rather than -70.

Yes, and the US one is 95% isn't it? Things are looking promising. But in reality I think we are still talking about next summer as most vaccines don't look to be with us until the new year at least. And then rolling it out is going to take a herculean effort. 

[Well b back 3,190]

We could be back to FCR by the end of the season after Oxford-AstraZeneca declared their preliminary results today.

Overall 70% effective, but the U.K. trial that was administered differently shows a 90% efficacy. THERE WAS NO HOSPITALISATION in any of the vaccinated groups.

Regulation has been applied for and Hancock says if all goes well vaccination will commence in December.

[sonyc 5,492]

57 minutes ago, Well b back said:

We could be back to FCR by the end of the season after Oxford-AstraZeneca declared their preliminary results today.

Overall 70% effective, but the U.K. trial that was administered differently shows a 90% efficacy. THERE WAS NO HOSPITALISATION in any of the vaccinated groups.

Regulation has been applied for and Hancock says if all goes well vaccination will commence in December.

The chances of getting back to watching live football in April must now be a distinct possibility (fingers crossed). Plus mass testing might also give folk passports before then. That would have to be worth at least one goal for us.

[Well b back 3,190]

Great news with the first vaccine approved today ( Pfizer ) and Oxford-AstraZeneca likely to be approved by the end of the week.

Full houses back at FCR by the end of the season with any luck.

[paul moy 235]

2 minutes ago, Well b back said:

Great news with the first vaccine approved today ( Pfizer ) and Oxford-AstraZeneca likely to be approved by the end of the week.

Full houses back at FCR by the end of the season with any luck.

Indeed, and without Brexit we could not have approved it earlier.  We are now in control of our own destiny in many areas.

Edited December 2, 2020 by paul moy

[Capt. Pants 4,198]

1 minute ago, Well b back said:

Great news with the first vaccine approved today ( Pfizer ) and Oxford-AstraZeneca likely to be approved by the end of the week.

Full houses back at FCR by the end of the season with any luck.

Great great news. UK leading the world for a change.

Vaccinations in volume to begin early next year.