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CANARYKING

All quiet on vaccine

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Anybody know where we are with this, not read anything lately. No vaccine, no crowds.

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September sometime. What year is the bigger guess. 

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There is a reasonable likelihood there will never be an entirely effective vaccine or cure.

The only area we can and should expect reasonable progress and improvement is in treatment of those with the virus.  Although who knows how long this might take - even the scientists working in this area are hesitant to say, as they are only drawing from past experiences with different viruses.  E.g. for HIV, really effective treatments weren't available until fairly recently.  The one thing in our favour in this particular instance is the sheer amount of money being thrown at this problem.

For my part, I'm assuming that there will be neither cure nor treatment, so that if and when there is, it will be a pleasant surprise.

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However, there are fairly widespread reports today that (at least temporary) immunity is gained having recovered from the virus, which is very good news.

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There was a report today that the Oxford team was working with 1,000 volunteers already, and the test were going well. Intention to ramp up to 1 million by the end of the Summer. The next bit got me thinking though - there is a concern the infection rate in the general population is TOO LOW to know if the vaccine is really effective ....

I’ll see if I can find the link...

Meanwhile the French Min of Health have told their companies there can be no “cue jumping” by the Americans, and once available a vaccine must be made available to all on an equal basis (maybe that means For France First?)

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7 minutes ago, Surfer said:

There was a report today that the Oxford team was working with 1,000 volunteers already, and the test were going well. Intention to ramp up to 1 million by the end of the Summer. The next bit got me thinking though - there is a concern the infection rate in the general population is TOO LOW to know if the vaccine is really effective ....

I’ll see if I can find the link...

Meanwhile the French Min of Health have told their companies there can be no “cue jumping” by the Americans, and once available a vaccine must be made available to all on an equal basis (maybe that means For France First?)

https://www.theguardian.com/science/2020/may/14/they-know-what-theyre-doing-oxford-covid-19-vaccine-trial-volunteer-praises-staff

This young man deserves praise. He has renewed my faith in human nature, if only for today

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re the link - it was this one from the Telegraph : 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/05/14/oxford-vaccine-trial-moves-hospitals-covid-19-prevalent-scientist/

The Oxford University vaccine trial is heading into hospitals amid fears that Covid-19 is not prevalent enough in wider society, a leading scientist has revealed.

John Bell, regius professor of medicine at Oxford University, said more than 1,000 people had been vaccinated in the first phase of the project and that, so far, things were going well and the drug looked safe.

However, as researchers wait for an "efficacy signal" that will establish whether those who have been given the vaccine can ward off the virus, Prof Bell admitted there was a risk that there may not be enough "active disease" to infect people, prompting the team to employ different tactics.

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I've worked extensively on influenza clinical trials and bloods are typically taken prior to the vaccine and again at 28 days.  The aim is to show either sero-conversion (someone going from not having antibodies to having above a certain level in their blood), or for those who already have some level of antibodies a 4-fold increase so if for example they had 1:10 pre-vaccine titre, they'd need to be 1:40 or greater post vaccination.

I'm assuming it will be something similar for these COVID-19 studies, so it's probably too early to tell if the vaccine is working as expected (they could take 14 day bloods to see if the signs are positive).  So far our company is only working on treatments for those with the illness and not any vaccine trials, however should they ramp up to the multiple thousands of subjects, then I'm sure that we'll be involved.

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I constantly update the Come On Sarah thread which should tell you where we are most of the time. It even has links on there for our London guys to volunteer for the trial. The news of not enough of the illness about was from a few weeks ago and a lot of the people in the trial are NHS. 550 are now vaccinated and that is due to be ramped up soon, which is in line with their plans and the scientist claim that the likelihood of this working is getting bigger. The next phase will include those over 55 and possibly some with underlying conditions. In America there are already 4000 volunteers ready to have a vaccine and then injected with the virus. Although WHO have technically approved this the FDA are still considering the ethics.

It is likely that mid June they will know the likelihood of this working. If it is looking good, the next phase will be moved to, and as I understand 2 Companies will begin to mass produce the vaccine using the principal that it is likely to work. 
There are also vaccines in human trials in USA and China ( China are using it in Africa ), but Trump in particular will not be sharing his until USA is sorted.

If you are over 65 or over 55 with underlying conditions and catch Covid 19 you can now automatically go onto one of the Oxford Uni trials. There is an online application form and your GP has to approve. If you are accepted you are given one of 3 tablets, 2 that are in the trial, 1 I believe is not ( all pot luck ). Obviously it is a trial so results will be dependent on time.

I will update the Come On Sarah thread on Saturday at the same time they update their press acknowledgements.

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3 minutes ago, Surfer said:

Thank you for that We’ll b back

No problem.

i am no expert but from what I read Matt is spot on ie once the original trial it’s are re-examined they will need to have antibodies hence mid June. The vaccine has by the way been tested on ferrets with great success. A large group were given massive doses of the virus. 6 were given the vaccine. Only 6 did not catch Covid 19, the 6 that were given the vaccine. This has to be treated with a bit of caution as this has not always had the same effect in humans, but that is the reason they were 80 % confident a very high % for a scientist to say, they are usually very cautious.

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2 hours ago, Surfer said:

Thank you for that We’ll b back

Coincidentally AstraZeneca have just released a press statement. Looks still on track, but mid June will be big. If Jenner start advertising for the next lot of volunteers and that also removes the upper age limit of 55 that will give us a big clue.

AstraZeneca, which is partnering with the University of Oxford to develop a potential COVID-19 vaccine, has said that the data from phase-I trials will be available in a month, according to a report by Business Standard.

The company has also said that late-stage trials should take place by the middle of this year.

The pharmaceutical and biopharmaceutical company is expected to start working manufacturing capabilities once the late stage trials begin.

Once the vaccine is proven to be successful, the company will reportedly use all manufacturing sites available globally, including those in the United States, the United Kingdom and China.

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7 hours ago, ricardo said:

My advice is don't hold your breath.

...unless you’re within two metres of someone, then do.

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19 hours ago, dylanisabaddog said:

There has never been a successful vaccine for a corona type virus. 

But that isn't because it is not possible but because there was no money in it - the virus could be contained and pretty much eradicated through traditional measures.

The consensus seems to be that it is possible.

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As hinted to above there seems to be a growing "concern" that the virus is naturally petering out in countries that have had strict lockdown measures and when it comes to the larger clinical trials, whilst they'll be able to check for the presence of antibodies in the blood, it will be difficult to measure the real-life effectiveness as there will not be enough people in the general population to catch the virus from.  In pre-clinical trials they will artificially attempt to infect the animals (as has been the case in the COVID-19 pre-clinical trials in rodents), however ethics in clinical human trials do not, as far as I'm aware, allow this.

So the success of the lockdown could be detrimental to finding an effective vaccine.  Interesting times.

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18 hours ago, Surfer said:

There was a report today that the Oxford team was working with 1,000 volunteers already, and the test were going well. Intention to ramp up to 1 million by the end of the Summer. The next bit got me thinking though - there is a concern the infection rate in the general population is TOO LOW to know if the vaccine is really effective ....

I’ll see if I can find the link...

Meanwhile the French Min of Health have told their companies there can be no “cue jumping” by the Americans, and once available a vaccine must be made available to all on an equal basis (maybe that means For France First?)

Is that pole vaulting for people who are vertically challenged?

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1 hour ago, Matt Juler said:

As hinted to above there seems to be a growing "concern" that the virus is naturally petering out in countries that have had strict lockdown measures and when it comes to the larger clinical trials, whilst they'll be able to check for the presence of antibodies in the blood, it will be difficult to measure the real-life effectiveness as there will not be enough people in the general population to catch the virus from.  In pre-clinical trials they will artificially attempt to infect the animals (as has been the case in the COVID-19 pre-clinical trials in rodents), however ethics in clinical human trials do not, as far as I'm aware, allow this.

So the success of the lockdown could be detrimental to finding an effective vaccine.  Interesting times.

Hi matt

My understanding ( and I am no way an expert ) is that WHO allow human challenge trials where there is little or no risk. Obviously there is no cure or treatment for Covid 19 at present, however it seems they have conceded that there is little risk to 19 - 25 year olds so they concede with strict measures ie those people are in like a hospital situation for however long, this maybe possible. Due to that the FDA are considering the ethics after it was brought up in the Senate. 16,000 have already signed up ( up from 14,000 at the beginning of the week ). Here’s the bad news for us though, it is reckoned that Trump could put this in as an emergency measure, and guess what, he will only use his own countries vaccine or insist if Jenners for instance that the USA gets the rights first. 

 

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3 hours ago, ron obvious said:

Is that pole vaulting for people who are vertically challenged?

👍 🙂

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23 hours ago, Matt Juler said:

I've worked extensively on influenza clinical trials and bloods are typically taken prior to the vaccine and again at 28 days.  The aim is to show either sero-conversion (someone going from not having antibodies to having above a certain level in their blood), or for those who already have some level of antibodies a 4-fold increase so if for example they had 1:10 pre-vaccine titre, they'd need to be 1:40 or greater post vaccination.

I'm assuming it will be something similar for these COVID-19 studies, so it's probably too early to tell if the vaccine is working as expected (they could take 14 day bloods to see if the signs are positive).  So far our company is only working on treatments for those with the illness and not any vaccine trials, however should they ramp up to the multiple thousands of subjects, then I'm sure that we'll be involved.

Matt, you obviously understand this far better than I. Is the Metro article good news or hype (or somewhere in between!)

https://metro.co.uk/2020/05/15/oxford-university-vaccine-effective-monkeys-offers-hope-human-trials-12708668/

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3 hours ago, Badger said:

Matt, you obviously understand this far better than I. Is the Metro article good news or hype (or somewhere in between!)

https://metro.co.uk/2020/05/15/oxford-university-vaccine-effective-monkeys-offers-hope-human-trials-12708668/

Not quite sure why bbc and consequently some papers are reporting this now. This is weeks old ( see come on Sarah thread ) and was widely reported in the USA and by a Jenner press release at the time. Things are way beyond this now.

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@matt

hi again. I mentioned earlier Trump may decide if they move to human challenge and over rule WHO and the FDA. What do you make of his latest statement, is that what he is doing do you reckon.

Trump is currently speaking about vaccine development, and has announced “Operation Warp Speed”.

“That means big and it means fast,” he said, calling it “unlike anything our country has seen since the Manhattan Project”.

“Its objective is to finish developing and then to manufacture and distribute a proven coronavirus vaccine as fast as possible," he said.

“We’d love to see if we can do it prior to the end of the year. We think we’re going to have some very good results coming out very quickly."

There are currently no vaccines to protect the body against the disease caused by coronavirus.

Trump said "Operation Warp Speed" will target more than just vaccine development. 

“In addition it will continue accelerating the development of diagnostics and breakthrough therapies," he said. "The great national project will bring together the best of American industry and innovation, the full resources of the United States government, and the excellence and precision of the United States military.”

His comments come a day after a former top US health official leading the government agency trying to develop a vaccine told Congress the country could face its "darkest winter in modern history".

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I'm not sure that we can trust too much of what comes out of Dr Trumps mouth (anyone for bleach), but I've done a little research and there does seem to be a growing list of people in the US who are willing to be exposed to COVID-19 to aid the development of a vaccine. This is all hypothetical at the moment, but it could certainly speed up the testing process if the ethics committees agree to it. 

Challenge trials are not something I've experienced during my 18 years in the industry, we normally just have the horror stories of Black Americans being infected with syphilis as part of our annual compliance training.

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8 hours ago, Matt Juler said:

I'm not sure that we can trust too much of what comes out of Dr Trumps mouth (anyone for bleach), but I've done a little research and there does seem to be a growing list of people in the US who are willing to be exposed to COVID-19 to aid the development of a vaccine. This is all hypothetical at the moment, but it could certainly speed up the testing process if the ethics committees agree to it. 

Challenge trials are not something I've experienced during my 18 years in the industry, we normally just have the horror stories of Black Americans being infected with syphilis as part of our annual compliance training.

Yes the number of volunteers on the particular website grows by the day, last week it was 4,000, beginning of this week it was 16,000 and now just 3 days later it’s 20,000. Although these are people from different nations as well, they can only one assumes have this done in USA, leaving Trump in the position in the position of having his own or stealing a couple from other Countries. The bizarre thing is we could have a vaccine that works and Trump refuses to let the world have it. I hope Boris has stayed good mates with him.

WW3 was always going to be ver oil, let’s hope it’s not over a vaccine.

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Matt - what’s your expert opinion on this.

On the one hand the human challenge will not be allowed in England. Yet on the other side, schools reopening and work places are going back, 10’s of thousands more will catch the virus. Wouldn’t a human challenge actually be safer as if nothing else those being given the virus under a human challenge would be the lowest of risks ? Yet people catching and spreading it will inevitably lead to yet more deaths on a large scale.

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People need to accept we’re four months down the line, there are bigger capacities, more PPE, bigger testing capacity, tracking, treatment breakthrough which speed up recovery, and testing moving forward in various vaccines. That and numbers falling in most countries.

Yes there might be more people catching it long term till that vaccine is found, but we must move back towards normality, if this means older vulnerable people need to be isolated so be it, it won’t be for ever but the rest of the world need to restart before we face much bigger problems.

We need to move forwards.

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Indy

Hi don’t know if that was aimed at me, but I think if it was you may have misunderstood. The question to Matt is more about wether he feels it is ethical to inject young healthy people with the virus in view of the fact more at risk people will be exposed. To me exposing everyone, means there should be less risk than deliberately infecting a few healthy people. It’s the ethics of a human challenge being discussed, not wether we should be returning to normality.

Yes things will return, but I very much doubt there will be crowds at any major event until proven treatment or a vaccine is found. 

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Almost all of the pharma companies involved in these initial vaccine trials are multinationals, so I can't see how the US could stop them using results gained from trials in that region globally. What we need to hope is that if the FDA (the US Food and Drug Administration) approve a vaccine, the EMA (the European Medicines Agency) don't delay by doing their own full approval. What we need is for the FDA, EMA and PMDA (of Japan) to work together and share out the approval work on behalf of each other.

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