Germany’s return is going well....

[T 190]

35 minutes ago, Jim Smith said:

I would agree with the point T is making when he point out that the number of new cases in Germany (circa 350) makes test, track and trace more feasible whereas our level of daily new infections (and the fact we haven't actually got the test, track and trace system up and running yet) do not. 

I suppose its of relevance that a larger and larger proportion of those testing positive are key workers (I presume a large number of whom work in the NHS, care homes or the social care sector or their families) and that therefore general "community" transmission cases are between 1500 and 2000 a days but we are still recording over 4,000 positive cases most days and in fact new positive case numbers have been flat recently but are not declining. The government, however, talks as if we have seen a significant decline when we haven't.

Discussing with UK mates on Zoom last night. Our conclusion was that the number of cases in UK really should be going down because of the restrictions but the figures don't show it because increased testing means a higher proporiton of cases are being confirmed. But agree with a lot of the comments on the main thread currently that you really need to get the cases down and track trace isolate in place before releasing restrictions. Germany really does know where the cases are and is taking action to contain the cases but they are still wary. And measures are being agreed and put in place with business and  worker representatives before things are opening up. UK is gettign there gradually but it does look rather chaotic and a*** about face at the moment. 

 

And yes trabi is local nnickname for Trabants - a Trabi car rally is a sight to behold.  

[Jim Smith 2,314]

7 minutes ago, T said:

Discussing with UK mates on Zoom last night. Our conclusion was that the number of cases in UK really should be going down because of the restrictions but the figures don't show it because increased testing means a higher proporiton of cases are being confirmed. But agree with a lot of the comments on the main thread currently that you really need to get the cases down and track trace isolate in place before releasing restrictions. Germany really does know where the cases are and is taking action to contain the cases but they are still wary. And measures are being agreed and put in place with business and  worker representatives before things are opening up. UK is gettign there gradually but it does look rather chaotic and a*** about face at the moment. 

 

And yes trabi is local nnickname for Trabants - a Trabi car rally is a sight to behold.  

If you look at the figures hospital tested cases are going down quite consistently. The increase (or rather lack of overall decrease) is due to the key workers now being tested outside of hospitals. So generally the trends are positive (the % of daily tests coming back positive are also decreasing) but in my view the case numbers have not yet decreased enough for us to be looking at any significant relaxations to the lockdown., Whether that situation will be different in 2/3 weeks time remains to be seen. I fear that around that time we may see numbers go up again. 

[T 190]

That is my perception as well and  may well be the private medical view in Goverment/adviers as well but I suspect that they also feel they need to get the economy going even though it is earlier than thy would like based on cases and the current lack of tracing. The UK is in a very difficult position partly of their own making.   

[Mark .Y. 351]

32 minutes ago, Jim Smith said:

If you look at the figures hospital tested cases are going down quite consistently. The increase (or rather lack of overall decrease) is due to the key workers now being tested outside of hospitals. So generally the trends are positive (the % of daily tests coming back positive are also decreasing) but in my view the case numbers have not yet decreased enough for us to be looking at any significant relaxations to the lockdown., Whether that situation will be different in 2/3 weeks time remains to be seen. I fear that around that time we may see numbers go up again. 

When Spain allowed construction and manufacturing to restart on the 12th April  (with social distancing restrictions and face masks on public transport) they were getting around 4,000 cases a day and over 500 deaths a day. Other social restrictions remained in force.

With no large test/trace/isolate scheme in force (they actually have about the same testing capacity as the UK), the numbers of cases and deaths have continued to steadily decline - make of that what you will but that is concrete evidence from a country hit as hard as any.  

 

Edited May 11, 2020 by Mark .Y.

[Jim Smith 2,314]

30 minutes ago, Mark .Y. said:

When Spain allowed construction and manufacturing to restart on the 12th April  (with social distancing restrictions and face masks on public transport) they were getting around 4,000 cases a day and over 500 deaths a day. Other social restrictions remained in force.

With no large test/trace/isolate scheme in force (they actually have about the same testing capacity as the UK), the numbers of cases and deaths have continued to steadily decline - make of that what you will but that is concrete evidence from a country hit as hard as any.  

 

That is promising if so. Lets hope the same happens here.

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

It isn't completely correct about Spain. My brother in law lives there and told me many restrictions are still in place. Yes a lot have returned to work but under social distancing rules.

If you observe those rules strictly, if work allows you to, then it is possible to keep the new infections in decline.

[Mark .Y. 351]

16 minutes ago, keelansgrandad said:

It isn't completely correct about Spain. My brother in law lives there and told me many restrictions are still in place. Yes a lot have returned to work but under social distancing rules.

If you observe those rules strictly, if work allows you to, then it is possible to keep the new infections in decline.

But thats pretty much exactly what I said KG.

Social distancing in workplaces and other social restrictions remain in place.

[Trevor Hockey's Beard 526]

1 hour ago, Mark .Y. said:

When Spain allowed construction and manufacturing to restart on the 12th April  (with social distancing restrictions and face masks on public transport) they were getting around 4,000 cases a day and over 500 deaths a day. Other social restrictions remained in force.

With no large test/trace/isolate scheme in force (they actually have about the same testing capacity as the UK), the numbers of cases and deaths have continued to steadily decline - make of that what you will but that is concrete evidence from a country hit as hard as any.  

 

Without an active Construction Industry you cannot have concrete evidence.

[Hairy Canary 668]

39 minutes ago, Trevor Hockey's Beard said:

Without an active Construction Industry you cannot have concrete evidence.

True, but you can cement relations.

 

 

I can think of a couple.....

 

[Mark .Y. 351]

1 hour ago, Trevor Hockey's Beard said:

Without an active Construction Industry you cannot have concrete evidence.

Well spotted that man.

I hadn't even noticed that pun, and I'm usually pretty quick with them  🙂

 

 

[Making Plans 936]

Interesting comments from Borussia Dortmund's managing director.

"A player testing positive for coronavirus will not be a "catastrophe", he says

It's nice to know that he has got his players safety at heart but presumably everything will be fine as long as he doesn't get it

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/52650159

 

Edited May 14, 2020 by Making Plans

[Crabbycanary3 994]

What's the magic number which prompts the  "Too many positive tests" conversation? I would start at 1, if it derives from football related activities.

 

[T 190]

In all probability it wont be a catasphe unless your attitude you are willing to accept zero risk, The fundamental point is that they are being tested every 2 days and are in quarantine.and are young fit and healthy with no pre-condisitons and no obesity so I would prefer their odds over getting on the London underground and the majority of Brits who are overwreight. .There are only a 1000 new cases a day in a population of 82m. that is one thousandenth of 1 pc and most of those in immigaration worker dorms and care homes.  It seems some people were not paying attention or bunking off when probability theory was taught at school.

[Yorkshire Canary 118]

It is a balancing act, little steps at a time. The lock down has and will bring the deaths and the infection rates down, that is why it was done. As we all come out of our fox holes most will apply common sense but circumstances and a few idiots will make it rise again particularly in London and the other big cities with tube rail and buses being over crowded. We should be far better placed now to protect staff and residents in care homes by regular testing and the same in hospital. There will continue to be deaths for years with this thing if no vaccine, but it sounds awful but the numbers will decide if the measures need to be tightened significantly or not. I really do not think the country financially can afford another prolonged lock down furlough etc, the current one will take years to pay off

[Crabbycanary3 994]

🎣

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

Well at the moment, there seems little guidance on what the science is telling Government who are then not telling us what is an acceptable level on new cases/hospital cases each day before restrictions ease, if at all.

[sgncfc 1,223]

9 hours ago, Making Plans said:

Interesting comments from Borussia Dortmund's managing director.

"A player testing positive for coronavirus will not be a "catastrophe", he says

It's nice to know that he has got his players safety at heart but presumably everything will be fine as long as he doesn't get it

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/52650159

 

What will he say if the player who tests positive dies? " We did everything we could".

[T 190]

We all have that risk when we go to work or the shops at the moment unless we are shielding. Governments around the world are all releasing restrictions and that will likely cost lives.  We make a risk assessment and go ahead. There is always a risk in life   The only way is for everyone to live in total isolation and never work and never see anyone until there is a vaccine which will never exist because people can’t work to produce one because they aren’t allowed out. Everything is a risk assessment even when there is a vaccine and the suggestion that football should not play ever again because there is a risk while the rest of the world gets on with its business is just absurd. You are more likely to die from living with someone as the disease spreads in small clusters but no one is suggesting families should split up. 

[Well b back 3,190]

The latest poll from Germany seems to go against what T is telling us. 

• Germany is gearing up for a return to Bundesliga football on Saturday - but an ARD opinion poll suggests 56% of Germans believe it's too early

 

[Fuzzar 1,702]

3 hours ago, T said:

We all have that risk when we go to work or the shops at the moment unless we are shielding. Governments around the world are all releasing restrictions and that will likely cost lives.  We make a risk assessment and go ahead. There is always a risk in life   The only way is for everyone to live in total isolation and never work and never see anyone until there is a vaccine which will never exist because people can’t work to produce one because they aren’t allowed out. Everything is a risk assessment even when there is a vaccine and the suggestion that football should not play ever again because there is a risk while the rest of the world gets on with its business is just absurd. You are more likely to die from living with someone as the disease spreads in small clusters but no one is suggesting families should split up. 

I agree with this. There's a very high risk of getting incoherent, repetitive abuse from an Anglophobe, every time you visit this site.

[T 190]

I’ve never commented on public opinion. I’ve commented on the RKI heath authority and the political opinion which I pointed out previously supported football resumption. Ie the people who have the expertise and the people who make the decisions. As I’ve said the football authorities have said it is on a knife edge and no guarantees that it will work out. There can never be any guarantees that there isn’t health problems either but that is life.  I’m merely pointing out what is being reported locallY and what the expert risk assessment is. 
 

ive no doubt to be fair that this comes down to a personal risk assessment preference. I’d say I’m moderately risk adverse where as a lot of people on here are highly risk adverse. That is purely down to personal preference but I would also say that humans are very bad at rationally assessing risk and that is what we are also seeing with the comments here 

[ron obvious 1,501]

Living is a risky business. You can die at any moment.

There seems to be a growing section of the population which believes all this dying stuff is outrageous & disgusting & it's about time the government did something about it.

[T 190]

15 minutes ago, Fuzzar said:

I agree with this. There's a very high risk of getting incoherent, repetitive abuse from an Anglophobe, every time you visit this site.

It really isnt my fault if the UK comes out badly in comparison or if you don’t like the harsh truth of those comparisons. You should be angry with the people who decided on those policies and supported those policies rather than those who point out those failings.
 

What is incoherent is those that support policies which defy expert advice and logic and reason.  If you are happy with the poor healthcare and economic performance of the UK in this crises than fine but if you really cared about the people of the UK then you would want better for the people of the UK  as I do. There is no getting away from the reality of the UKs comparatively poor performance as much as people don’t like that reality being pointed out. 

[C Goodenough 5]

7 minutes ago, T said:

It really isnt my fault if the UK comes out badly in comparison or if you don’t like the harsh truth of those comparisons. You should be angry with the people who decided on those policies and supported those policies rather than those who point out those failings.
 

What is incoherent is those that support policies which defy expert advice and logic and reason.  If you are happy with the poor healthcare and economic performance of the UK in this crises than fine but if you really cared about the people of the UK then you would want better for the people of the UK  as I do. There is no getting away from the reality of the UKs comparatively poor performance as much as people don’t like that reality being pointed out. 

I don't think anyone said it's your fault did they? 

Educate me T... What can we do to change this. 

Being pointed out is one thing but repetitivly stating it is another.  Football forum.. Are you a Norwich supporter? 

[T 190]

The figures are what is really tedious. 
 

Benchmark what other countries are doing learn and implement. 
 

Standard practice in business. 

[C Goodenough 5]

14 minutes ago, T said:

The figures are what is really tedious. 
 

Benchmark what other countries are doing learn and implement. 
 

Standard practice in business. 

Sorry what can we... I do?

Those things you say are beyond mine and probably most pink un members

[T 190]

Look at world news

Follow quality news sources with different points of view 

listen to what different experts have to say

Read up on basic ecocomics risk theory and decision makimg

 Exercise

eat a healthy diet 

learn a foreign language

interact with people from other countries and cultures 

I’m  sure others can come up with lots of good suggestions as well

[C Goodenough 5]

3 minutes ago, T said:

Look at world news  

Follow quality news sources with different points of view 

listen to what different experts have to say

Read up on basic ecocomics risk theory and decision makimg

 Exercise

eat a healthy diet 

learn a foreign language

interact with people from other countries and cultures 

I’m  sure others can come up with lots of good suggestions as well

Look at the news for what. I can't change the government's plans and directions. 

I can listen to experts but what difference can I make. 

Exercise. Check. Am as fit as a fiddle

Eat healthy. I do. 

Foriegn language.  I speak and  write 3 languages. 

Interact etc... No problem there. I've got that well covered with family members, friends and colleagues. 

[T 190]

1 minute ago, C Goodenough said:

Look at the news for what. I can't change the government's plans and directions. 

I can listen to experts but what difference can I make. 

Exercise. Check. Am as fit as a fiddle

Eat healthy. I do. 

Foriegn language.  I speak and  write 3 languages. 

Interact etc... No problem there. I've got that well covered with family members, friends and colleagues. 

I’m sure you get it but most don’t. You do have a vote. You speak to others You can post on social media. Most will not change their preconceived views but some may just stop and question. 
 

if someone comes up with some new evidence logic and reason then absolutely I reconsider but on here you generally get defensive agrressive or pointing out a typo or some denial and deflection which kind of proves my point. 
 

If people for example don’t like being called fat then don’t attack people for pointing out the reality but do something about it. My friends and trainers certainly point out when I’m under performing   I’m merely also pointing out the UK is underperforming for its own good. 

[Mello Yello 2,282]

27 minutes ago, T said:

Look at world news

Follow quality news sources with different points of view 

listen to what different experts have to say

Read up on basic ecocomics risk theory and decision makimg

 Exercise

eat a healthy diet 

learn a foreign language

interact with people from other countries and cultures 

I’m  sure others can come up with lots of good suggestions as well

May I suggest to you as the resident pseudo-intellectual Deutschland Oracle. That you learn to spell big boy pant wearing (lederhosen) words like 'economics' and 'making'.....Vielen Dank....

Edited May 15, 2020 by Mello Yello
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