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dylanisabaddog

Relegated on points per game

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One of the commonly proposed methods of finishing the EPL is to leave it as it stands with a small adjustment for the 2 games that are needed to bring the games played level. 

This clearly relies on an even spread of fixtures in order to be fair. It would disadvantage Norwich City as 8 of our remaining 9 games are against teams that we are statistically more likely to beat. It seems to me that a prediction should be used based on remaining games based on the results of all games over, say, the last 10 years. I'm sure those statistics would show that teams that finished bottom gained most of their points against teams around them. 

Is there anyone out there capable of writing computer code to work this out? If it showed we would survive based on that analysis of previous results it would provide very good information for a legal challenge 

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13 minutes ago, dylanisabaddog said:

One of the commonly proposed methods of finishing the EPL is to leave it as it stands with a small adjustment for the 2 games that are needed to bring the games played level. 

This clearly relies on an even spread of fixtures in order to be fair. It would disadvantage Norwich City as 8 of our remaining 9 games are against teams that we are statistically more likely to beat. It seems to me that a prediction should be used based on remaining games based on the results of all games over, say, the last 10 years. I'm sure those statistics would show that teams that finished bottom gained most of their points against teams around them. 

Is there anyone out there capable of writing computer code to work this out? If it showed we would survive based on that analysis of previous results it would provide very good information for a legal challenge 

Any adjustment would probably only be based on results this season, where we have been better against the top teams than those around us.

If there is to be any relegation from the Prem this year we will be in it.

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And deservedly so. We are bottom of the league, 6 points adrift and results this calendar year have been dreadful.

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18 minutes ago, Trevor Hockey's Beard said:

Any adjustment would probably only be based on results this season, where we have been better against the top teams than those around us.

If there is to be any relegation from the Prem this year we will be in it.

You may well be right but I would argue that statistics based on an incomplete season are irrelevant. We don't know about our last 5 home games because we haven't played them. I would therefore look at results over a 10 year period of completed seasons. Doing it that way flattens out any one season anomalies. 

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Highly unlikely that anyone will be getting relegated from the PL with 27 points still to play for. Points per game and no relegation like the Dutch is far more probable 

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13 minutes ago, JF said:

Highly unlikely that anyone will be getting relegated from the PL with 27 points still to play for. Points per game and no relegation like the Dutch is far more probable 

Although the Dutch have taken that view, the French have relegated a team based on an incomplete season. 

If you ask clubs to vote at an EPL meeting they will base their votes entirely on self interest 

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14 minutes ago, dylanisabaddog said:

Although the Dutch have taken that view, the French have relegated a team based on an incomplete season. 

If you ask clubs to vote at an EPL meeting they will base their votes entirely on self interest 

Dutch was put to a team vote over the two leagues, vote wasn’t unanimous and 9 teams abstained saying the league should decide, which is what happened. League 1 and 2 in France are ran by the same governing body and our PL/EFL isn’t. Each league in Europe will make its own decisions based on situation. In the PL if it goes to a vote it’s 14 out of 20 votes. Each team in the PL holds an equal share in the league, it’s highly unlikely for legal reasons that member clubs will vote to relegate member clubs that haven’t been mathematically relegated to promote clubs from outside the league that haven’t been mathematically promoted, 3 bottom teams would take the PL to the cleaners. Possible but highly unlikely 

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It is correct to say that if there is any relegation we will be in it. Hard to argue that we shouldn’t be. But I would vehemently argue that it is unfair and unjust to relegate anyone based on an incomplete season when they are clearly still mathematically able to stay up. 
 

Similarly I don’t really think it is fair to promote two teams from the championship if they don’t finish even though they seems to be commonly accepted as “fair”

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3 minutes ago, Jim Smith said:

It is correct to say that if there is any relegation we will be in it. Hard to argue that we shouldn’t be. But I would vehemently argue that it is unfair and unjust to relegate anyone based on an incomplete season when they are clearly still mathematically able to stay up. 
 

Similarly I don’t really think it is fair to promote two teams from the championship if they don’t finish even though they seems to be commonly accepted as “fair”

Completely agree and if the PL plays to a conclusion in these farcical circumstances but the championship ends it now I would imagine the 3 relegated clubs lawyers will be going over the contract between  PL/EFL and looking at the wording on the promotion/relegation. I would presume it will say promotion and relegation occur over a completed calendar of fixtures but who knows. Amazingly there is nothing in the PL rules about what happens if a season can’t conclude 

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6 minutes ago, JF said:

Completely agree and if the PL plays to a conclusion in these farcical circumstances but the championship ends it now I would imagine the 3 relegated clubs lawyers will be going over the contract between  PL/EFL and looking at the wording on the promotion/relegation. I would presume it will say promotion and relegation occur over a completed calendar of fixtures but who knows. Amazingly there is nothing in the PL rules about what happens if a season can’t conclude 

The premier league rules do, however, say that each team must play each other twice in a season so they would have to amend that rule. 

To ditch the season and abandon relegation they would have to amend that rule, the rule that says the bottom three teams get relegated, the rule that says the top division can only have a maximum of 20 teams (if they allow anyone up) and then get it approved by the FA Council as the FA is a "special shareholder" and has to approve any rule changes that impact on promotion or relegation.

I guess if they did try to promote/relegate on an incomplete season an aggrieved team could try and refuse to transfer their share to one of the promoted teams. Hopefully it won't come to that though.

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1 minute ago, Jim Smith said:

The premier league rules do, however, say that each team must play each other twice in a season so they would have to amend that rule. 

To ditch the season and abandon relegation they would have to amend that rule, the rule that says the bottom three teams get relegated, the rule that says the top division can only have a maximum of 20 teams (if they allow anyone up) and then get it approved by the FA Council as the FA is a "special shareholder" and has to approve any rule changes that impact on promotion or relegation.

I guess if they did try to promote/relegate on an incomplete season an aggrieved team could try and refuse to transfer their share to one of the promoted teams. Hopefully it won't come to that though.

Let’s put it this way, if either Aston Villa or West Ham find themselves relegated under these circumstances then there is no way they will just accept it, they have far more to lose

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1 hour ago, JF said:

Highly unlikely that anyone will be getting relegated from the PL with 27 points still to play for. Points per game and no relegation like the Dutch is far more probable 

I would agree with this. But if the league decides to end with relegation as it stands, we can hardly complain. We have been abysmal. 

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Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, Terminally Yellow said:

I would agree with this. But if the league decides to end with relegation as it stands, we can hardly complain. We have been abysmal. 

We can complain. Relegation without finishing the games would be ridiculous.

If you're saying that there's absolutely no choice and 3 teams must go down then yes, no matter what way you cut it Norwich will be one of those teams and there's no denying we should be. 

But I'll be complaining if the league ends with relegation as it stands because of how unjust it is. Not because we are one of the teams. (Ok admittedly I'd care less if we weren't)

Edited by Hillhead

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1 hour ago, dylanisabaddog said:

You may well be right but I would argue that statistics based on an incomplete season are irrelevant. We don't know about our last 5 home games because we haven't played them. I would therefore look at results over a 10 year period of completed seasons. Doing it that way flattens out any one season anomalies. 

Not gonna happen. Itll be ppg, current  positions  or just plain old tough titty . Dont think null and void will happen now.

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Well.... on current form over last 6 games IN ALL COMPETITIONS we are comfortably clear on the bottom four,  so let's not be too keen to knock ourselves. 

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Last season Leeds get 12 points from their last 9 games.  I would suggest the Championship might be unlikely to promote anyone without finishing the season.  Leeds are their jewel in the crown and they would want to keep them if possible. And litigation is likely from other clubs if they are promoted on PPG, with Leeds having a reputation as serial bottle jobs!

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2 minutes ago, king canary said:

That doesn't really argue with his point- 7 points from our last 8 games isn't showing the form to overcome that 6 point gap. If we kept up that form and said we won our 9th game we'd still finish on 31 points and be comfortably relegated.

Doesn't matter. We absolutely can complain if they try and relegate us on a PPG formula or current league standings. If it was in the rules that this is what happens if the season has to be curtailed then it might be different but we started this season with the legitimate expectation of having 38 games to accrue enough points to stay up. We have earnt the right to try and stay in this league over a full season and despite our unhealthy position we still have a chance of doing so. It would be completely unjust to have that taken away from us and/or to have us replaced by a team that has not actually won promotion from the championship over a whole season (or indeed even guaranteed themselves a playoff place).

It would be unfair on all of us but arguably even more unfair on Villa or Bournemouth given how few points separate the teams just above us.

If a match gets abandoned after 75 minutes then the rules say it has to be replayed regardless of who was winning or what the score is. That is because matches last for 90 minutes and we all know that games can change very quickly. Same principle applies in my view. 

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22 minutes ago, Just Dan said:

Last season Leeds get 12 points from their last 9 games.  I would suggest the Championship might be unlikely to promote anyone without finishing the season.  Leeds are their jewel in the crown and they would want to keep them if possible. And litigation is likely from other clubs if they are promoted on PPG, with Leeds having a reputation as serial bottle jobs!

The problem is with t he way football is set up and with decisions being taken by way of 2/3 majority votes then the issue of litigation is not straight forward. If a league takes a decision in a way that is lawful according to its articles/constitution then it may well be that options in terms of litigation are limited. That said I would hope we would still try if we get scr*wed over.

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We all know that the likelihood is that if the season had continued to play out in front of spectators and games at club venues then we were odds on to go down. The point remains though that we are in this league on merit by being the current championship champions and we have earned the right to defend that over a full season. At this moment in time no championship club has a rightful claim to promotion in our place 

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https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/52475052 - 

Don't get me wrong I feel if the ending of the season were simulated 100 or 1000 times then Norwich would go down in most of them - but crucially not all.

I know little of law but I'd imagine we would have a stronger case than Leeds or WBA. Surely easier not to promote a team that hadn't yet earnt promotion than relegate one that hadn't gone down. That said I think it will be 22 teams next season if this one doesn't finish.

 

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9 minutes ago, Hillhead said:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/52475052 - 

Don't get me wrong I feel if the ending of the season were simulated 100 or 1000 times then Norwich would go down in most of them - but crucially not all.

I know little of law but I'd imagine we would have a stronger case than Leeds or WBA. Surely easier not to promote a team that hadn't yet earnt promotion than relegate one that hadn't gone down. That said I think it will be 22 teams next season if this one doesn't finish.

 

I really don't see how you can do either promotions or relegations on the basis of an incomplete season but the "path of least resistance" may well end up being the 22 team solution you refer to. Apart from some grumbles over European places if they don't get that right, the only seriously aggrieved parties that the EPL and EFL would have to worry about would be Fulham and the other playoff contenders in the championship. Aside from maybe Fulham the others could only really argue that they have been denied a 1 in 4 chance of getting to the prem. Relegate 3 teams and promote 3 you still have that but you will have us, Villa and Bournemouth kicking off as well. 

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Posted (edited)

A Pools panel type decision cannot be made. Too much money/potential personal liability at stake.

Someone told me (I haven't checked this myself) that Villa wouldn't have got promoted last season (at a similar stage)if things then , had to be worked out PPG?

There are too many examples of Clubs going on a  run etc, for it to be just taken as such. I am not necessarily talking about us btw, but anything is possible.

Football is not important, and the sway of money is  the only thing that is delaying the £ hungry authorities the balls(and morals)  to make a decision. It's May the 1st and we are a long way away from ensuring that football can go ahead, with all necessary safety processes in place.

Edited by Crabbycanary3

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18 minutes ago, king canary said:

That doesn't really argue with his point- 7 points from our last 8 games isn't showing the form to overcome that 6 point gap. If we kept up that form and said we won our 9th game we'd still finish on 31 points and be comfortably relegated.

My point was that our results are on an upward trend. We often see a single win can spark a run of form. The result at Tottenham and beating a team managed by “ the special one” is one that can be built on. It’s not false hope, just take one game at a time. Over the years teams implode at this time of the year, those that keep their beliefs and trust in a manager can retain their status. 

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Just now, Block Y Seat 176 said:

My point was that our results are on an upward trend. We often see a single win can spark a run of form. The result at Tottenham and beating a team managed by “ the special one” is one that can be built on. It’s not false hope, just take one game at a time. Over the years teams implode at this time of the year, those that keep their beliefs and trust in a manager can retain their status. 

True and if you look at who we lost to in that league run it was Man U, Wolves, Spurs and Shef U away and Liverpool at home.

I know we have Arsenal, Chelsea and Man City away to come but the other 6 games are definitely more in the category of "could get something".

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We were promoted on merit and we are now bottom of the EPL on merit. It would be hard to argue against any formula that did relegate us.

However, if there was a class action by the teams relegated I am sure we would want to be a part of that. And if it came down to a pay off I am sure we would take it.

As has been said there is no fair way but there has to be a method that is acceptable. Remember, it doesn't have to be acceptable to the EFL. The EPL could say any number of things but if they said no relegation then that would be it. If we are keen on staying in the EPL they better start getting their lobbying boots on this morning.

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Posted (edited)

Reality is there will not be any football played for at least a month.

In terms of the lockdown we are about 3-4 weeks behind the rest of Europe and none of them are playing football yet. Not sure any are even training in any useful way.

Edited by duke63

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5 minutes ago, Crabbycanary3 said:

 

Someone told me (I haven't checked this myself) that Villa wouldn't have got promoted last season (at a similar stage)if things then , had to be worked out PPG?

 

I just looked, if this had have happened one year earlier Villas last game would have been the derby with Birmingham where Grealish was hit by the fan, they won that 1-0 and that game (played on a Sunday) moved them up to 9th from 14th. It was win number 2 in what would be a 10 game winning run. So not only would they have been missed out, they wouldn't even have counted themselves that unlucky at that time. Currently, even Swansea down in 11th are only 3 points off the playoffs.

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9 minutes ago, Block Y Seat 176 said:

My point was that our results are on an upward trend. We often see a single win can spark a run of form. The result at Tottenham and beating a team managed by “ the special one” is one that can be built on. It’s not false hope, just take one game at a time. Over the years teams implode at this time of the year, those that keep their beliefs and trust in a manager can retain their status. 

They are on a very marginal upward trend and I don't think you can really count cup games. We could even double the number of points picked up in those 8 games and we'd still be likely to go down.

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