The official "Will we make the playoffs?" thread

[Ealing Canary 0]

I think this has been done a few times over the last month or so, but now that we''ve entered the final third of the season I thought I''d bring the topic up again:

Will we make the playoffs?

Looking back through the history books, the points required to scrape into the playoffs for the last 6 seasons have been:

2005 - 73
2004 - 73
2003 - 74
2002 - 75
2001 - 74
2000 - 76

Which is an average of 74.16, so rounded down is 74 points.

We currently have 39 points with 15 games to go, meaning that we need 35 points or 2.33 points per game just to even stand a chance of making the playoffs.

By my calculations this leaves us requiring one of the following runs of results as an absolute minimum:

W11 D2 L2   or   W10 D5 L0   or    W12 D0 L0

And the fixtures are as follows:

Ipswich (H)
Hull (A)
Brighton (H)
Derby (H)
Palace (A)
Stoke (H)
Leeds (A)
Sheff Utd (H)
Burnley (A)
Leicester (H)
Preston (A)
Sheff Weds (A)
QPR (H)
Cardiff (A)
Wolves (H)

IMHO it''s never going to happen, but at least the next 4 fixtures are very winnable so at least we can keep this debate open for a few more weeks before we resign ourselves to another year in this league! [;)]

 

 

 

[Citizen Journalist Foghorn 0]

 

[Al Yellow 0]

Good bit of analysis there Islington Canary. Whilst this highbury canary never says die, not whilst there''s a mathematical chance, I won''t be holding off on booking my holidays for playoff weekend this year.

 

[Matt_1 0]

HMMM...cant say i had looked at it so closely before....at least it confirms what we all know,  WE HAVE GOT NO CHANCE  AT ALL!  OK?  Give it up! 

Anyone coming on this thread and saying " oh yes we might still make it, oh please dont be so awful and negative" please give your valid reasons....oh and also name and address so we can come round and examine your brain.

 

Thanks

Matt

 

[Flying Dutchman 766]

[quote user="Matt"]

HMMM...cant say i had looked at it so closely before....at least it confirms what we all know,  WE HAVE GOT NO CHANCE  AT ALL!  OK?  Give it up! 

Anyone coming on this thread and saying " oh yes we might still make it, oh please dont be so awful and negative" please give your valid reasons....oh and also name and address so we can come round and examine your brain.

 

Thanks

Matt

 

[/quote]

 

AMEN MATT!

[Yellow Rider 0]

[quote user="Paul Rankin"]

 

[/quote]

Like it Paul, well done!

The play offs are a pipe dream with the dramatic (and sustained) improvement that will be needed. Forget it. The Board will stll cling to this fantasy but us realists out there know a good team (and manager) when we see one and we have neither at the moment.

I am personally very worried about Sunday. Ipswich are supposed to be playing well now (the locals I work with are all raving about their performamce last night with good, promising youngsters again coming through. Wonder whatever happened to our own youngsters? Silly me, I forgot, with Worthy in charge you can forget any commitment to developing our own young players). We will do very well to get a win on Sunday. Many Canary fans slag of the Binners for their financial mess, that''s a fair point but with only a fraction of Worthy''s money to spend I think big fat Joe continues to do a damn good job down the road. 

[no1canary 0]

i think we all know we wont get top 6. i very much doubt we will get top 10. but yeh, the next 4 games are winnable. so i expect us to get about 4 points from them teams then! being optimistic, 7 points out of the next 4 games. but that wont get us into the top 9, so no chance.

[Tom NCFC 0]

I think you''ll finish 7th but will be a bit far from 6th, but it''s possible if we have all the luck in the world!

[Citizen Journalist Foghorn 0]

[quote user="Yellow Rider"][quote user="Paul Rankin"]

 

[/quote]

Like it Paul, well done!

The play offs are a pipe dream with the dramatic (and sustained) improvement that will be needed. Forget it. The Board will stll cling to this fantasy but us realists out there know a good team (and manager) when we see one and we have neither at the moment.

I am personally very worried about Sunday. Ipswich are supposed to be playing well now (the locals I work with are all raving about their performamce last night with good, promising youngsters again coming through. Wonder whatever happened to our own youngsters? Silly me, I forgot, with Worthy in charge you can forget any commitment to developing our own young players). We will do very well to get a win on Sunday. Many Canary fans slag of the Binners for their financial mess, that''s a fair point but with only a fraction of Worthy''s money to spend I think big fat Joe continues to do a damn good job down the road. 

[/quote]

I hate to have to agree, I realise many of their fans want him gone, (not as much as they want sheepy out however) the main reason being they now play hoofball, but if you look at the players he has presided over losing, how many are now in the premiership!!  If they had had any money to sign a good defender when Diallo and Santos were playing at the back they would have walked this division - but hey they didnt have a penny!!  which is well funny...

What annoys me is it has been a VERY slow decline at ipswich (and leicester) since administration unyet we have managed it in a single season!!!!  the new signing will help matters but i fail to see how he can turn it around enough.

[Salopian 1]

Mathematically possible, but highly unlikely. We would need a massive turn round, and even if we could somehow hide the misfunctioning midfielders, it''s a very tall order.We have perhaps improved the squad with  the second JJ, - more pace down the right, but the midfield is still a problem. Even with Safri back we lack the quality to play a midifield of three which can also provide some cover for the fullbacks. Rehman, despite his youth honours, is not highly regarded by Fulham (otherwise why did they let him come?) So if 2nd JJ, a striker, plays wide right the midfield will be even more exposed. Another feature is that Earnie apparently is not strong on tracking back, unlike Ashton whose height advantage was a regular help in the defence.Another problem is for new players to fit in and find their feet. How many games has it taken Etuhu to show anything of his ability? The next few games may be winnable, but we shall have new players tyring to find their feet, and some existing players, especially McK and Shackle, will take a game or two to be match fit, even if we assume that they are not reduced by their injury.I think that we might yet finish higher than we are at the moment, but surely play-offs are realistically very difficult.

[ZLF 335]

I posted the same in November and it is simply beyond us no matter what people say - it was then and it even more so now.

We need to start rebuilding - from the manager first...

[E I E I E I O 0]

Absolutely no chance that run of away games:

Palace, Leeds, Burnley, Preston and Cardiff will kill us even if we win all the other games! Besides that we are not very good either and our manager is pants!

Just incase you still thought we could we also have a derby, Sheff utd, QPR and Wolves at home.

The fact that we have won 18 of our last 69 matches should also be taken into consideration.

The fact that only crewe have let in more goals than us this season should also.

As if that should''nt of convinced Imagine Saf, Hucks or Earnie injured.

[Syteanric 1]

id be worried if we did to be fair....

if we wnt up then we are in a worse situation than before.. we''d end up like Bradford or Barnslay./. promoted before we were ready.... Look at sunderland!!!!!!

another season in the championship at least! whislt someone sorts this mess out

jas :)

[Alex Harvey-Jones 0]

[quote user="Paul Rankin"]

 

[/quote] Take it that''s a no then!! Very funny!! Top marks :-) I have to agree. It is looking like a long shot now. So much for the pre season ''we''re going to win the league predictions''!!!

[The Great Drinkell 51]

I don''t know the facts on this but there aren''t many teams who have come down and then gone straight back up. I can only think of West Brom with us.

 They have all needed a season to adjust - at least we weren''t /aren''t insolvent. with the best chance next season -parachute payment- let''s try some of the youngsters and just see what we''ve actually got.

 Please.

[Citizen Journalist Foghorn 0]

[quote user="The Great Drinkell"]

I don''t know the facts on this but there aren''t many teams who have come down and then gone straight back up. I can only think of West Brom with us.

 They have all needed a season to adjust - at least we weren''t /aren''t insolvent. with the best chance next season -parachute payment- let''s try some of the youngsters and just see what we''ve actually got.

 Please.

[/quote]

if you keep a stable team - ala west brom, charlton, bolton - you can do well - palace this year

if you chang everyone cos u have to...., west ham, southampton, leicester, sunderland, leeds, sheff wed, you are gonna struggle

[lucky green trainers 0]

Bryan hamilton endorsed worthy to get city into the play-offs this year on radio broadland interview this morning. ''every confidence''Nuff said.